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RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

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Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

Not really, because RC's analysis is slightly dependent upon teams you beat. Sure you could get to 25 points, but if you only sweep 5 teams and then get a few ties or a random win or two, you don't get the bye. If you spread it all out and beat everyone, you're more likely to get the bye.

But his analysis isn't dependent on that, because a team can get to 25 points by sweeping 5 teams, getting a few ties and wins here and there, and still fit the "3 at home, 2 on the road" criteria.
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

But his analysis isn't dependent on that, because a team can get to 25 points by sweeping 5 teams, getting a few ties and wins here and there, and still fit the "3 at home, 2 on the road" criteria.
The analysis is more concerned with the points pace, not the points by themselves. Example: Having fifteen points is awesome, especially because you have to have fifteen (or sixteen) points before you can get twenty-five. But, having fifteen points going into the last weekend means you're pretty much out of the running for a first-round bye. So, when should you get that fifteenth point, you ask?? Why, look at the handy-dandy point-getting system that RC developed! (For those that don't want to do the math, the team should be getting their fifteenth point on or around the Brown / Yale away weekend or else they are behind pace to get a first-round bye.)
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

Things must be going real well this year if we are all talking about a first round bye. Right now I am just taking it all game by game. The last 2 were inspiring and the power play-well it just does not get much better:eek:
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

Things must be going real well this year if we are all talking about a first round bye. Right now I am just taking it all game by game. The last 2 were inspiring and the power play-well it just does not get much better:eek:

Totally agree Doc. Baby steps . Stayed focused and have tunnel vision, nothing but the next game matters.
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

The analysis is more concerned with the points pace, not the points by themselves. ... So, when should you get that fifteenth point, you ask?? Why, look at the handy-dandy point-getting system that RC developed!

I understand this, but my original point remains: It's an awful complicated way of saying "25 points probably gets you there."
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

Things must be going real well this year if we are all talking about a first round bye. Right now I am just taking it all game by game. The last 2 were inspiring and the power play-well it just does not get much better:eek:

Well it COULD get better, we could see Dunkin' under the other team's name. :D

Dartmouth/Harvard will be defining to see where our season goes. Out of a possible 18 points, we currently have 10. There are 26 more points up for grabs, and there are two teams we have yet to play this season (see earlier in the paragraph). After that weekend, we'll have a pretty good idea of where we're headed (even if the home/away roles are reversed), and if the first round bye is feasible. Right now I'd say we're bubblicious for it, given the standings of other teams (Union, Cornell, SLU, maybe one or two others).
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

I don't mind if we don't get a first-round bye, it's not that big of a deal. I think it helps teams if they play, rather then just practicing and sitting the weekend out. Is there a statistic that looks how teams are doing if they had a first round-bye compare to teams that had to play? What's the percentage of teams winning after a first-round bye? What do other posters think? Big deal or not?
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

I don't mind if we don't get a first-round bye, it's not that big of a deal. I think it helps teams if they play, rather then just practicing and sitting the weekend out. Is there a statistic that looks how teams are doing if they had a first round-bye compare to teams that had to play? What's the percentage of teams winning after a first-round bye? What do other posters think? Big deal or not?

Last year, I believe all of the top four teams made it to Albany. Year before, I think two of the teams (Cornell and Colgate) made it to Albany despite not having a bye. I think Quinnipiac also the year before that. Elsewise, I have no recollection, and do not wish to dulve into statistics at this moment.
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

I don't mind if we don't get a first-round bye, it's not that big of a deal. I think it helps teams if they play, rather then just practicing and sitting the weekend out. Is there a statistic that looks how teams are doing if they had a first round-bye compare to teams that had to play? What's the percentage of teams winning after a first-round bye? What do other posters think? Big deal or not?

i would think the bye is a big deal if you finish first or second in the standings-you get to draw the lower seeds regardless of how the first round goes. Finishing 4th is probably not that much of an edge-as you more than likely will draw the 5th seed anyway. I would just like to see us finish strong, on a good roll, and remain healthy. Injuries can just play a big role in determining how we will do. I like this team the way it is right now-and just want to keep it that way. This past weekend was just a lovely shot in the arm.:)
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

The analysis is more concerned with the points pace, not the points by themselves. Example: Having fifteen points is awesome, especially because you have to have fifteen (or sixteen) points before you can get twenty-five. But, having fifteen points going into the last weekend means you're pretty much out of the running for a first-round bye. So, when should you get that fifteenth point, you ask?? Why, look at the handy-dandy point-getting system that RC developed! (For those that don't want to do the math, the team should be getting their fifteenth point on or around the Brown / Yale away weekend or else they are behind pace to get a first-round bye.)
Boy this is getting to be some discussion. I suggest two alternatives that may be even easier:

1. The engineer's method: If points >= 1.2 n (where n is number of games), you are in good shape (or if your winning % >= .600).
2. The reading method: Check the standings sorted by winning percentage. If you are 4th or higher you just might be on pace for that bye.
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

i would think the bye is a big deal if you finish first or second in the standings-you get to draw the lower seeds regardless of how the first round goes. Finishing 4th is probably not that much of an edge-as you more than likely will draw the 5th seed anyway. I would just like to see us finish strong, on a good roll, and remain healthy. Injuries can just play a big role in determining how we will do. I like this team the way it is right now-and just want to keep it that way. This past weekend was just a lovely shot in the arm.:)
This depends on the season. If one team is virtually unbeatable then there's an advantage to finishing 2nd or 3rd - you avoid going head to head with that team until the final and perhaps they get upset along the way.
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

playoffs, byes, lots of hockey left

what are you doing puttin the maloik on old Seth
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

This depends on the season. If one team is virtually unbeatable then there's an advantage to finishing 2nd or 3rd - you avoid going head to head with that team until the final and perhaps they get upset along the way.

Thought of that also but did not mention it-you are of course correct. I am hoping that we are the team that everyone wants to avoid;)
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

Translation anyone?

My thanks to My Cousin Vinny...:D :D

"...While not Italian in origin, many Italians believe in il malocchio (often pronounced "maloik.") Part superstition, part tradition, it is the belief in the evil eye, placed on someone when someone else is jealous or envious of the other's good luck. The malocchio then manifests itself in some sort of misfortune onto the cursed person, usually some physical ailment."
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

I don't mind if we don't get a first-round bye, it's not that big of a deal. I think it helps teams if they play, rather then just practicing and sitting the weekend out. Is there a statistic that looks how teams are doing if they had a first round-bye compare to teams that had to play? What's the percentage of teams winning after a first-round bye? What do other posters think? Big deal or not?
Just because I hate seeing a semi-simplistic statistical question going unanswered... Top seeds are 22-6 (for the overall series) in the second round of playoffs since 2003 (when the current playoff format started). 1, 2, and 3 seeds are each 6-1 while the 4 seed is a measly 4-3. (Side note: Only one #9 seed (or lower) (the 03-04 Clarkson Knights) advanced past the second round of the playoffs in 9 chances.)

As the good Doc thought, 4 seeds struggle against 5 seeds. 4 seeds have lost every Game 1 against a 5 seed in the past seven years (six games). Four teams extended the 4 v 5 series to a tiebreaker while three were able to complete a comeback.

The only 3 seed to lose a series (they were also swept) was the 03-04 Brown Bears who finished the regular season on a 1-4-0 slide.

So, to sum up this useless speculation (I mean, the games will play themselves out, right?), you want to be a top-3 seed to assure yourself of a date in Albany (or Atlantic City).
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

I don't mind if we don't get a first-round bye, it's not that big of a deal. I think it helps teams if they play, rather then just practicing and sitting the weekend out. Is there a statistic that looks how teams are doing if they had a first round-bye compare to teams that had to play? What's the percentage of teams winning after a first-round bye? What do other posters think? Big deal or not?

Here's the long and the short of it. Teams with a 1st round bye only need 2 wins to reach Albany and 4 for a championship. Teams without it need 4 and 6.

Here's the breakdown on teams reaching Albany. Since the current format began, there have been 28 teams reach the semifinals.

Teams in the top 4 - those with the first-round bye - advanced about 79% of the time.

Teams in the middle 4 - those hosting in the first round - advanced about 18% of the time.

Teams in the bottom 4 - those on the road in the first round - advanced about 4% of the time.

Numbers don't add up to 100% due to rounding, but it's pretty cut and dried.
 
Re: RPI III: Revenge of the Seth

Here's the long and the short of it. Teams with a 1st round bye only need 2 wins to reach Albany and 4 for a championship. Teams without it need 4 and 6.


Teams in the top 4 - those with the first-round bye - advanced about 79% of the time.

Rubber, meet road. Nice work RC. :D
 
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