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RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Congrats Linden Marshall for being a finalist : Men's Student-Athlete of the Year Finalists Announced - ECAC Hockey <a href="https://t.co/oSdUlty1zI">https://t.co/oSdUlty1zI</a></p>— Coach Dave Smith (@RPI_HockeyCoach) <a href="https://twitter.com/RPI_HockeyCoach/status/1237098009978195975?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 9, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

LTsatch said:
Just spoke to the Yale box office and they stated that meetings are taking place today about whether fans will be allowed to attend this weekends games.
Click to expand...

From the Yale board.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

jmhusker said:
Some information here on the situation. Mortality rate is 15% for people over 80. Suggestion is no gatherings of people in groups over 100.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/07/harvard-forum-experts-warn-most-daunting-virus-in-50-years/
Click to expand...

I am wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 who do not catch anything at all but simply just die from something else? After all, 80 is considerably over the average life span in many places. (Yes i know, once you reach that age your life expectancy is at least another 5-10 years!)
 
DrDemento said:
I am wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 who do not catch anything at all but simply just die from something else? After all, 80 is considerably over the average life span in many places. (Yes i know, once you reach that age your life expectancy is at least another 5-10 years!)
Click to expand...

I presume you are wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 from the seasonal flu, common cold, food poisoning, pneumonia and other ordinary, usually not life threatening illnesses for younger, healthy people. I'll bet the number is at least an order of magnitude greater for the post-80 crowd, but 15% seems like a very high number for a potentially widespread infectious agent - even among the elderly.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

DrDemento said:
I am wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 who do not catch anything at all but simply just die from something else? After all, 80 is considerably over the average life span in many places. (Yes i know, once you reach that age your life expectancy is at least another 5-10 years!)
Click to expand...

Standard actuarial mortality tables express the probability of dying within a one-year span. According to the Social Security actuarial table for 2016, the probability that a male age 80 will die within one year is 5.8%. This goes up to 9.7% by age 85 and 16.4% by age 90, with female rates being somewhat lower. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

The article from which the 15% figure is drawn doesn't mention whether it is the probability of dying within a one-year span or within 14 days from the date of diagnosis, but I suspect it is the latter. To make some simplifying assumptions which probably do not attain the standard of being actuarially rigorous, let's say the normal probability of dying within one year is 11% (about halfway between 6 and 16%). Then the normal probability of dying within two weeks would be about 2/52 times 11%, or about 0.42%. Compared to 0.42%, 15% is pretty steep.

I know - Ralph promised there would be no math. :p
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

If we keep up this posting rate and defeat Harvard this weekend, then sometime next week, we can start

RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part IV: Mr. Smith Goes to Lake Placid
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

Ralph Baer said:
If we keep up this posting rate and defeat Harvard this weekend, then sometime next week, we can start

RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part IV: Mr. Smith Goes to Lake Placid
Click to expand...

RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part IV: Mr. Smith and only Mr. Smith Goes to Lake Placid
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

Ralph Baer said:
FWIW,
There have just been announcements that the RPI women's team have received commitments from two sisters for 2020 and for 2021. They are dual US-Japan citizens. Another flag?
Click to expand...

No. He's banned. :D
 
DrDemento said:
I am wondering what the mortality rate is for people over 80 who do not catch anything at all but simply just die from something else? After all, 80 is considerably over the average life span in many places. (Yes i know, once you reach that age your life expectancy is at least another 5-10 years!)
Click to expand...

We won’t know how deadly this illness is until we can test everyone who should be tested. What we have learned to date from other parts of the world is the death rate from Covid is far higher than the flu. What is most troubling is people are drawing conclusions from the numbers they are being given (22 deaths with like 674 cases) and not from the actual so far unknown numbers. The biggest tragedy here would be to think this is not such a big deal and then have it become a big deal. After the fact addressing of this is not the strategy that should be employed . If nothing happens everyone will scream we shouldn’t have closed down the games to fans. If fans are let in and the virus spreads, everyone will scream why did you let fans in. No win situation .
 
25+years said:
We won’t know how deadly this illness is until we can test everyone who should be tested. What we have learned to date from other parts of the world is the death rate from Covid is far higher than the flu. What is most troubling is people are drawing conclusions from the numbers they are being given (22 deaths with like 674 cases) and not from the actual so far unknown numbers. The biggest tragedy here would be to think this is not such a big deal and then have it become a big deal. After the fact addressing of this is not the strategy that should be employed . If nothing happens everyone will scream we shouldn’t have closed down the games to fans. If fans are let in and the virus spreads, everyone will scream why did you let fans in. No win situation .
Click to expand...

If reports are to be believed, many of the people who have the bug may not know they have it, so how do you go about defining "who should be tested "
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

Am hearing that some RPI profs are already telling their classes that they will not be meeting in person when break ends.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

25+years said:
We won’t know how deadly this illness is until we can test everyone who should be tested. What we have learned to date from other parts of the world is the death rate from Covid is far higher than the flu. What is most troubling is people are drawing conclusions from the numbers they are being given (22 deaths with like 674 cases) and not from the actual so far unknown numbers. The biggest tragedy here would be to think this is not such a big deal and then have it become a big deal. After the fact addressing of this is not the strategy that should be employed . If nothing happens everyone will scream we shouldn’t have closed down the games to fans. If fans are let in and the virus spreads, everyone will scream why did you let fans in. No win situation .
Click to expand...

My point is really simple - and all on here have agreed -we simply cannot quote any statistics at all with certainty. As everyone points out we have no idea how many people have contracted this virus and remained either healthy or had only minor illness and obviously survived. We cannot trust the data from any place else because no one anywhere has tested their entire population. What we do know is that we are dealing with a virus that is capable of causing severe illness and death in a selected population group. So quoting any sort of contagion rate, mortality rate, etc is based on incomplete information. we can make some assumptions but my own experience treating and dealing with virus infections for over 50 years, with influenza being the prime example, is that until we know more precisely how many people really have been infected statistics only can mean what anyone who uses them wants them to mean. So we are told 90,000 people in China have tested positive for the disease, but the population of China is 1.7 Billion and we (and the Chinese government) have no true idea of how many of the remaining Billions either had the disease and recovered (or even in their case, how many have died).
Now back to hockey -we are at least listed as a slight 48% to 42% favorite for game 1 against Harvard and a predicted score of 3-3 being most probable. we are not listed though as the favorite to win the series.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

Wicked Slappaahs said:
If reports are to be believed, many of the people who have the bug may not know they have it, so how do you go about defining "who should be tested "
Click to expand...

Exactly -and we all must remember that China is not the USA. Their population being 4-5 times what ours is and a great many living in conditions that, shall we say, are not ideal for doing any sort of statistical analysis.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

Waite21 said:
Standard actuarial mortality tables express the probability of dying within a one-year span. According to the Social Security actuarial table for 2016, the probability that a male age 80 will die within one year is 5.8%. This goes up to 9.7% by age 85 and 16.4% by age 90, with female rates being somewhat lower. https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

The article from which the 15% figure is drawn doesn't mention whether it is the probability of dying within a one-year span or within 14 days from the date of diagnosis, but I suspect it is the latter. To make some simplifying assumptions which probably do not attain the standard of being actuarially rigorous, let's say the normal probability of dying within one year is 11% (about halfway between 6 and 16%). Then the normal probability of dying within two weeks would be about 2/52 times 11%, or about 0.42%. Compared to 0.42%, 15% is pretty steep.

I know - Ralph promised there would be no math. :p
Click to expand...

Keep it coming - I may not comprehend all of it but I enjoy the analysis. My posting was just to mention how they are making all sorts of statistical statements based on such incomplete data. Until we know how many people have had this virus and not even know it (and I am not sure that even occurs) how can we know what the mortality rate is? i am definitely over 70 and taking the same precautions for this new virus as I take for the more common influenza virus (or any other respiratory bug). I am not making major changes in my life and have not stocked up on face masks or hand sanitizer. Hand washing with an antibacterial soap like Dial and sometimes wiping down my hands with isopropyl alcohol has been my defense against most things for 52 years of medical practice and remains the same. (Although i really do miss the old PhisoHex soap we had for so many years before it was removed from the market)
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

I want to personally invite all the RPI fans who can't see any hockey in person this weekend to follow me to Springfield, Mass for the 1 pm AIC hockey games. It's a paltry 1 hour 30 minutes from HVCC to the free Casino parking lot. You can make it home before the RPI game, or you can stay for the Casino or even for the AHL game at 7pm.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part III: Destination: Lake Placid (and Beyond)!!

DrDemento said:
Now back to hockey -we are at least listed as a slight 48% to 42% favorite for game 1 against Harvard and a predicted score of 3-3 being most probable. we are not listed though as the favorite to win the series.
Click to expand...

3-3 in a playoff game, eh? So in other words, no spread.
 
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