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RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

DrDemento said:
Not sure what we need to do in the last 6 games (with only 2 at home) to insure a 5th or 6th place finish. Lugnut??Where are you for this one???
Click to expand...

Code: 
RPI Points vs. Position
   |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   [B]1.5[/B]   0.3   0.0     x     x
18 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.0   [B]2.3[/B]   0.2   0.0     x     x
19 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   5.4   [B]6.4[/B]   0.2   0.0     x     x
20 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.3   [B]8.4[/B]   4.3   0.0     x     x     x
21 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   2.6  [B]15.0[/B]   3.5   0.0     x     x     x
22 |     x     x     x     x   0.5   5.0   [B]9.6[/B]   0.8   0.0     x     x     x
23 |     x     x     x   0.0   2.3   [B]8.1[/B]   5.5   0.1     x     x     x     x
24 |     x     x     x   0.0   3.0   [B]4.1[/B]   1.1   0.0     x     x     x     x
25 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   [B]3.4[/B]   1.8   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x
26 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   [B]1.4[/B]   0.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x
27 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   [B]0.5[/B]   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x
28 |     x     x   0.0   [B]0.1   0.1[/B]   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x
29 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x

We need to hit 23 points to have it be more likely than not that we hit 6th, or 25 points for 5th. As you said, unless we win out, it's very unlikely that we get a bye, and similarly it's unlikely that we'd fall out of a home-ice position even if we lose out.

EDIT: adding to that, we're about 2:1 to host Union and 3:1 to host Princeton or Brown.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Thanks Lugnut. i had felt we needed 6 more points in the last 6 games to get 6th or perhaps 5th. But i think for 5th, if we get 6 points we need some help. I never like not be in the position to hope for help since we rarely get it. I would think our best chances are home against Princeton (that last minute tie down here really hurt us and i knew might come back to haunt us). I think we have a decent chance at Colgate and Dartmouth. The other 3 games would take a rather big upset and i would be happy with a tie against any of them.
I actually fell if we can get a 5th or 6th seed we could see this team in lake Placid. Anything lower would make life more difficult for certain.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

DrDemento said:
now why on earth would we want to pay anything for a month of WMU hockey? i would have paid for both RPI games if the price was a bit more reasonable.
Click to expand...

I was just trying to say that paying for a month would be cheaper than paying for two individual games.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Ralph Baer said:
I was just trying to say that paying for a month would be cheaper than paying for two individual games.
Click to expand...

I know - I was just indicating how out of bounds it is for them to ask so much for any of their packages. It makes really appreciate RPI-TV all that much more!!!!! just wish we had the funds so they might be able to broadcast a few of the road games along with what they already do.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Just a little something to discuss and think about - it is almost a lock that we will finish between 5th and 8th this season. obviously in the first round there is little question we would prefer 5th or 6th and that we face SLU or Princeton who have separated themselves from the others. Let's look ahead a bit. Who would you want to face in the second round (and who would you really like to avoid).
My own choices would be that of the top 4 i would hope to face Clarkson or QU and would like to avoid traveling to Cornell or Harvard. I think we stand a slightly better chance of reaching Lake Placid that way.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

DrDemento said:
Just a little something to discuss and think about - it is almost a lock that we will finish between 5th and 8th this season. obviously in the first round there is little question we would prefer 5th or 6th and that we face SLU or Princeton who have separated themselves from the others. Let's look ahead a bit. Who would you want to face in the second round (and who would you really like to avoid).
My own choices would be that of the top 4 i would hope to face Clarkson or QU and would like to avoid traveling to Cornell or Harvard. I think we stand a slightly better chance of reaching Lake Placid that way.
Click to expand...
Just a little hard to even think about who we might play in the second round when we’ve had plenty of problems winning in the first round. But of those 4 teams you mentioned, we still have to play 3 of them in the last 3 weeks (2 of them on the road). We have had some success at Cornell recently, not so much at Harvard.
Anyway, totally missed last nights game. It sounds like I didn’t miss much. Did we come out of the game with no more injuries? Maybe we should have done what Union did, take the weekend off...
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

RPI fan 4 life said:
Just a little hard to even think about who we might play in the second round when we’ve had plenty of problems winning in the first round.
Click to expand...

To that end, we have about a 21% chance of blowing it in the first round and making that question moot. If we're able to stay up in 6th or even move up to 5th, our odds will be better, but that's by no means a guarantee.

(This is of course based on KRACH, which is by no means a perfect mechanism for projecting these things).
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

lugnut92 said:
To that end, we have about a 21% chance of blowing it in the first round and making that question moot. If we're able to stay up in 6th or even move up to 5th, our odds will be better, but that's by no means a guarantee.

(This is of course based on KRACH, which is by no means a perfect mechanism for projecting these things).
Click to expand...

i think our schedule makes it difficult for us to stay up in 5th or even 6th. After all, as mentioned, we are on the road at some pretty tough venues and only have 2 games at home with one of them against QU who has given us fits for years. But i think it still possible for one of those positions if we get any sort of help. BTW as i type this Cornell is up 2-0 on Colgate mid first period today which would most certainly help us maintain our spot for at least today. All games are important but some stand out. We must beat Princeton in Troy at the very least. Any point against QU would be a nice bonus. On the road, winning at Colgate and Dartmouth certainly would help. Things become a bit clearer after next weekend and we might have a much better picture not only where we stand relative to both Colgate, Dartmouth and Yale, but a better indication of what we have left to accomplish in the last two weekend to have a shot at the top 2 home seeds for the first round.

update that to end of the first and 4-1 Cornell
 
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Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Cornell up 4-1 after 2 periods. Looking like we'll be 5th heading into next weekend
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

lugnut92 said:
Code: 
RPI Points vs. Position
   |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
17 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   [B]1.5[/B]   0.3   0.0     x     x
18 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.0   [B]2.3[/B]   0.2   0.0     x     x
19 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   5.4   [B]6.4[/B]   0.2   0.0     x     x
20 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.3   [B]8.4[/B]   4.3   0.0     x     x     x
21 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   2.6  [B]15.0[/B]   3.5   0.0     x     x     x
22 |     x     x     x     x   0.5   5.0   [B]9.6[/B]   0.8   0.0     x     x     x
23 |     x     x     x   0.0   2.3   [B]8.1[/B]   5.5   0.1     x     x     x     x
24 |     x     x     x   0.0   3.0   [B]4.1[/B]   1.1   0.0     x     x     x     x
25 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   [B]3.4[/B]   1.8   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x
26 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   [B]1.4[/B]   0.3   0.0     x     x     x     x     x
27 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   [B]0.5[/B]   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x
28 |     x     x   0.0   [B]0.1   0.1[/B]   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x
29 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x

We need to hit 23 points to have it be more likely than not that we hit 6th, or 25 points for 5th. As you said, unless we win out, it's very unlikely that we get a bye, and similarly it's unlikely that we'd fall out of a home-ice position even if we lose out.

EDIT: adding to that, we're about 2:1 to host Union and 3:1 to host Princeton or Brown.
Click to expand...

Great chart. Nice to be 5th place ECAC and top 40 pair wise. Challenging next 6 games.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

DrDemento said:
Just a little something to discuss and think about - it is almost a lock that we will finish between 5th and 8th this season. obviously in the first round there is little question we would prefer 5th or 6th and that we face SLU or Princeton who have separated themselves from the others. Let's look ahead a bit. Who would you want to face in the second round (and who would you really like to avoid).
My own choices would be that of the top 4 i would hope to face Clarkson or QU and would like to avoid traveling to Cornell or Harvard. I think we stand a slightly better chance of reaching Lake Placid that way.
Click to expand...

https://youtu.be/H5ZBOL3M6B0?t=17
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Lugnut - does that Sunday win for Cornell over Colgate make much of a change (if any) in those last calculations?
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

DrDemento said:
Lugnut - does that Sunday win for Cornell over Colgate make much of a change (if any) in those last calculations?
Click to expand...

It helps a tiny bit. I'll post in the projected standings thread after Harvard's beanpot game today.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

DrDemento said:
I know - I was just indicating how out of bounds it is for them to ask so much for any of their packages. It makes really appreciate RPI-TV all that much more!!!!! just wish we had the funds so they might be able to broadcast a few of the road games along with what they already do.
Click to expand...

Just an FYI, NCHC.tv sets those prices, it's not up to the school. Thanks for bringing your team to Kalamazoo, we wish you luck the rest of the way.
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Harvard maintains it's absolute commitment to Beanpot failure with a 7-2 loss to BC.

For decades, Harvard has been an ECAC blue blood. But that doesn't translate at Beanpot time. I don't see much of the Hockey East teams; does anyone have a thought?
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

New version of that table:
Code: 
RPI Points vs. Position
   |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11
----------------------------------------------------------------------
17 |                             x     x   0.1   [B]1.3[/B]   0.5   0.0     x
18 |                             x     x   0.5   [B]2.4[/B]   0.4   0.0      
19 |                             x   0.0   3.3   [B]7.8[/B]   0.4   0.0      
20 |                           0.0   0.3   [B]6.5[/B]   5.8   0.1   0.0      
21 |                       x   0.1   2.7  [B]13.3[/B]   5.2   0.0     x      
22 |                 x     x   0.7   5.3   [B]8.8[/B]   1.2   0.0     x      
23 |                 x   0.0   3.2   [B]8.3[/B]   4.6   0.2     x     x      
24 |                 x   0.0   [B]3.9[/B]   3.7   0.7   0.0     x            
25 |               0.0   0.2   [B]4.3[/B]   1.2   0.1   0.0     x            
26 |     x     x   0.0   0.2   [B]1.5[/B]   0.1   0.0     x                  
27 |     x     x   0.0   0.3   [B]0.5[/B]   0.0     x     x                  
28 |     x     x   0.0   [B]0.1   0.1[/B]   0.0     x                        
29 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0     x
Only slight differences from last time. I love my tables and posts and everything, but at this point the only thing we really need to do is "just win, baby." Like yeah we can talk about the thresholds we need to hit, but basically our season will end as soon as we lose the wrong two out of three games (or, knock on wood, the wrong game).
 
Re: RPI Hockey 2019 - 2020 Part II: Moving on with 2020 Vision!

Thanks for all your work. it does make for some very interesting thoughts. We seem to almost be a lock for 7th but I still have fingers crossed that things work out for 6th. Would love to face an 11th or 12th seed in the first round. There are no guarantees (I remember us in the very old days being a #10 seed and traveling to beat the #1 seed Vermont and then on to upset Harvard). But it just seems like an easier time than having a much tougher road to the next round. Have always felt it is about how we match up against certain teams during specific years. In 1995, at Lake Placid, we were the 6th seed and were able to beat Colgate after not playing them well during the season. Jenny and I were sitting in a bar (where else would we be?) when we heard that Princeton had upset Clarkson to advance to the final game. Would never had imagined that to happen but it made for a final match up that I just knew we had the best chance for winning.
 
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