RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

[engineerhockeyfan]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

FD: We are a better team than we were at the beginning of the season and better than last year. But there are some teams that we match up better against than others which has almost always been the case. Princeton presents problems that some other teams do not. Dartmouth has also been one of those poor match ups over the past several years. Last night it was their size and strength that was seemed to be a problem. We often perform better against teams that are far better than some of the teams that we struggle against. Even when we are one of the best teams in college hockey (1984, 1985) we will have some teams that are just more difficult for us even when they are not a powerhouse.
You are right on though in that next weekend the Princeton game is crucial. In my book that is a must win or at least a must not to lose. BTW i would not look at the QU game as a sure loss. They are by far the higher regarded team but in some recent years we have played some of our better hockey against them (only to tie or lose). And I have the feeling that if we have good defensive communication and an extremely hot Owen Savory in goal, some teams start to clench the stick harder and it can get into their psyche a bit. i am sure many of us got a bit nervous when Dartmouth ran him late in the game last night. He took a long time to get up and from my prejudiced view they deserved at least a 2 minute penalty! (which I will bet we would have been called for if the skate was on the other foot)

Doc, it seemed to me that the match up with Dartmouth was very similar to the match up with Cornell. But we didn't play the same suffocating man to man defense that we did against Cornell. This may have been by design, but I think it cost us.
As for running into the goalie, teams have been getting away with that against us for years.
And that call against us in OT was awful. I would have been upset if he made it in the first period, but in OT it was just not called for. JMO

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

FD: We are a better team than we were at the beginning of the season and better than last year. But there are some teams that we match up better against than others which has almost always been the case. Princeton presents problems that some other teams do not. Dartmouth has also been one of those poor match ups over the past several years. Last night it was their size and strength that was seemed to be a problem. We often perform better against teams that are far better than some of the teams that we struggle against. Even when we are one of the best teams in college hockey (1984, 1985) we will have some teams that are just more difficult for us even when they are not a powerhouse.
You are right on though in that next weekend the Princeton game is crucial. In my book that is a must win or at least a must not to lose. BTW i would not look at the QU game as a sure loss. They are by far the higher regarded team but in some recent years we have played some of our better hockey against them (only to tie or lose). And I have the feeling that if we have good defensive communication and an extremely hot Owen Savory in goal, some teams start to clench the stick harder and it can get into their psyche a bit. i am sure many of us got a bit nervous when Dartmouth ran him late in the game last night. He took a long time to get up and from my prejudiced view they deserved at least a 2 minute penalty! (which I will bet we would have been called for if the skate was on the other foot)

Based on what I've seen with that sort of run-in before, I was actually expecting matching minors.

The Quinnipiac game, as I touted over in the other thread, is #1 goaltender vs. #3 goaltender in terms of national save percentage. Given that's the defensive game to watch, it'll probably end up being a sieve-fest, but it should be fun. I hadn't written it off, in fact I intend to pick what I usually pick for that matchup: a tie.

 

[BIG Green]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Based on what I've seen with that sort of run-in before, I was actually expecting matching minors.

The Quinnipiac game, as I touted over in the other thread, is #1 goaltender vs. #3 goaltender in terms of national save percentage. Given that's the defensive game to watch, it'll probably end up being a sieve-fest, but it should be fun. I hadn't written it off, in fact I intend to pick what I usually pick for that matchup: a tie.

FD, 100% agreed on the matching minors would have been appropriate if calls had been made. Sellar stops and is clipped from the side by Johnson causing him (both to bowl over Savory). I would also add that Sellar was no saint all night with Savory, any D man would have done the same thing to protect their goalie.

As for the the call in OT, total BS. Two things very iffy hooking and just cannot be called in OT.

Savory was the best RPI player last night.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

FD, 100% agreed on the matching minors would have been appropriate if calls had been made. Sellar stops and is clipped from the side by Johnson causing him (both to bowl over Savory). I would also add that Sellar was no saint all night with Savory, any D man would have done the same thing to protect their goalie.

As for the the call in OT, total BS. Two things very iffy hooking and just cannot be called in OT.

Savory was the best RPI player last night.

I only had radio last night, and didn't see the play in the highlight pack. However, regardless of the team, I cannot agree with the "not in OT" premise. Either it's a penalty or it's not. Rules are rules, no matter where in the game it is. If it was a non-conference game in the middle of the first period, would it have been called? And why is it any different for OT or playoffs? Whether it was actually hooking or not can certainly be up for debate, but that's where it should lie. Nothing else under consideration.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

highlight video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUPDd_KB0rk

 

[engineerhockeyfan]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

I only had radio last night, and didn't see the play in the highlight pack. However, regardless of the team, I cannot agree with the "not in OT" premise. Either it's a penalty or it's not. Rules are rules, no matter where in the game it is. If it was a non-conference game in the middle of the first period, would it have been called? And why is it any different for OT or playoffs? Whether it was actually hooking or not can certainly be up for debate, but that's where it should lie. Nothing else under consideration.

You are absolutely right in your assessment of calling penalties. However, the game has never been called that way, and much more obvious calls have been let go in the more critical parts of the game.
That call in OT should never have been made, as it was not so obvious and it did not even slow the puck carrier down. If it would have stopped a great scoring chance, than I would have reluctantly accepted it, but it had no affect on the play of the game.
I saw the play and the only thing it did was show what a bad referee would do in an OT situation.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

You are absolutely right in your assessment of calling penalties. However, the game has never been called that way, and much more obvious calls have been let go in the more critical parts of the game.
That call in OT should never have been made, as it was not so obvious and it did not even slow the puck carrier down. If it would have stopped a great scoring chance, than I would have reluctantly accepted it, but it had no affect on the play of the game.
I saw the play and the only thing it did was show what a bad referee would do in an OT situation.

EHF-Could not agree more. As long as the teams involved int he contest know how the game will be called, that is how it should be. For almost 65 years I have been following the NHL and especially the Stanley Cup playoffs. It is understood that once you reach overtime in those playoffs, the call of the game changes a bit but it has consistently been so for as long as I can remember. You virtually have to draw blood to get a penalty. But as longas both teams know this and are treated the same, that is the way it is and has been. In college hockey you can have it any way you want but as long as it is consistently applied to both teams. if the officials have been calling every possible penalty for 60 minutes and want to continue to do so in OT, then let both teams be aware of it and treat both the same. But if the officials want to call the first 60 minutes tightly and then let everything go in OT, also let both teams know that and treat both teams the same. That's all you can ask for. I hate when the fate of any game is left to an official who makes a call that is just blatantly one sided while allowing the same offense to go unnoticed against the other team. But it is magnified in hockey because of sudden death in OT.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Welp, with Union's win over Dartmouth, the way to home ice is further away, in fact we would end up facing #26 in the 1st round if the season were to end today. And with Princeton beating Ylae*, Friday's game is that much more important.

 

[engineerhockeyfan]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

EHF-Could not agree more. As long as the teams involved int he contest know how the game will be called, that is how it should be. For almost 65 years I have been following the NHL and especially the Stanley Cup playoffs. It is understood that once you reach overtime in those playoffs, the call of the game changes a bit but it has consistently been so for as long as I can remember. You virtually have to draw blood to get a penalty. But as longas both teams know this and are treated the same, that is the way it is and has been. In college hockey you can have it any way you want but as long as it is consistently applied to both teams. if the officials have been calling every possible penalty for 60 minutes and want to continue to do so in OT, then let both teams be aware of it and treat both the same. But if the officials want to call the first 60 minutes tightly and then let everything go in OT, also let both teams know that and treat both teams the same. That's all you can ask for. I hate when the fate of any game is left to an official who makes a call that is just blatantly one sided while allowing the same offense to go unnoticed against the other team. But it is magnified in hockey because of sudden death in OT.

Doc, I have been following the NHL for almost as long as you, and I can remember an interview with a player back when the games were in black and white on Saturday afternoons. All the player said when asked about officiating was that the players wanted it to be consistent. As as long as I can remember, when a close game went into the third period and later went into OT, a penalty wouldn't be called unless it took away a really good scoring opportunity. Judging by the way Friday's game was officiated, that call in OT went against everything I have seen in the last 62 years.

 

[rvd5star69]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Someone with more time than me what are our last 17 freakout results
Also what is our % chance of home ice first round
Lastly I was calling for savory since game 1

 

[RPI fan 4 life]

Someone with more time than me what are our last 17 freakout results
Also what is our % chance of home ice first round
Lastly I was calling for savory since game 1

Guess it’s me with too much time on my hands.
RPI is 7-9-1 in the last 17 BRF’s. currently on a 5-game losing streak (longest in Freakout history). Last win was 4-1 over Brown in 2014.
As far as our chances of making the Top 8, Lugnut is much more involved with that than I am. Check his ECAC standings thread, which he updates weekly.

And either you knew a lot about Savory or had no faith in Marshall...

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Someone with more time than me what are our last 17 freakout results
Also what is our % chance of home ice first round
Lastly I was calling for savory since game 1

About 8% to have home ice in the first round (and 0.0004% for a bye). More likely destinations are Union, Brown, and Dartmouth, at 20-25% each.

(This is all based on KRACH, so take it with the appropriately-sized grain of salt)

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Doc, I have been following the NHL for almost as long as you, and I can remember an interview with a player back when the games were in black and white on Saturday afternoons. All the player said when asked about officiating was that the players wanted it to be consistent. As as long as I can remember, when a close game went into the third period and later went into OT, a penalty wouldn't be called unless it took away a really good scoring opportunity. Judging by the way Friday's game was officiated, that call in OT went against everything I have seen in the last 62 years.

Exactly! I understand there have been some changes and in college level athletics the emphasis has rightly been placed on safety first. But that aside, all you want is that a game be called consistently which to me means fairly. I have seen far too many times that all momentum we gain during a game lost as we get put down two men on what seems fairly innocuous plays that have gone over looked (often on both sides). Suddenly a goal or two is scored and the game has been completely changed by officials. BTW I do believe it is only home cooking officiating as I have seen it happen in Troy against us. does it happen to other teams? For certain. But i do not follow their games and leave it to their fans to complain about those episodes.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Been awful quiet in here for the past couple days. Can almost here a pin drop!

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Been awful quiet in here for the past couple days. Can almost here a pin drop!

Was that the 10 pin which dropped?

 

[RPI fan 4 life]

Was that the 10 pin which dropped?

Arrrgh! Spare me from all the bowling talk or I may have to go on STRIKE!

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

What is with these turkeys...

In any case, we need 10 points out of 12 to get to 500 in conference. Probably won't happen, but we can at least make this a wild ride. Maybe it's just me, but showing that we are the equal of our opposition is not a bad thing, considering where we were. We aren't finishing, but we're not giving up the ship. Now if we can get over that next hurdle, we can snatch success from what was a not-so-good season.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

What is with these turkeys...

In any case, we need 10 points out of 12 to get to 500 in conference. Probably won't happen, but we can at least make this a wild ride. Maybe it's just me, but showing that we are the equal of our opposition is not a bad thing, considering where we were. We aren't finishing, but we're not giving up the ship. Now if we can get over that next hurdle, we can snatch success from what was a not-so-good season.

Agree- we will not likely get a home ice position but we need to try for the best match up on the road as possible. There are a few teams that just seem to carry the play against us. The first round can be filled with surprises and if we can get through that I would consider this season a step in the right direction. We may just not have made this a good season but i think wea re playing at a level which makes it a better season and can give us some hope. of course, getting our top scorer(s) back could make the first round a bit more interesting.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

Agree- we will not likely get a home ice position but we need to try for the best match up on the road as possible. There are a few teams that just seem to carry the play against us. The first round can be filled with surprises and if we can get through that I would consider this season a step in the right direction. We may just not have made this a good season but i think wea re playing at a level which makes it a better season and can give us some hope. of course, getting our top scorer(s) back could make the first round a bit more interesting.

To be fair, when compared to last year, you couldn't get much worse.

You don't need 500 to get home ice. Looking at the past few years, you've needed around 20 points to get first round home ice (ranging between 18-22 the years I look at; if WaP were still around there'd probably be a more detailed analysis). We're on 12, our max is 24, and present competitors are on 15-17. If we can go 4-2 beating who we need to beat (i.e. Dartmouth, Colgate, Princeton), we'll have a good shot. We have the Union tiebreak in hand, hopefully we can achieve the Colgate and Dartmouth tiebreaks.

I've stopped trying to hope for specific first round matches, because really anything can happen. In 2013, I wanted Brown on account of how we did vs. the other competitors, and look what happened. It's not completely lost though, given 2016. Whomever we get, we simply need to make sure that we take care of business on that step, and not worry about anything else down the road.

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Hockey 2018 - 2019 Part II: We're Just Gonna Complain, Don't Bother Reading

To be fair, when compared to last year, you couldn't get much worse.

You don't need 500 to get home ice. Looking at the past few years, you've needed around 20 points to get first round home ice (ranging between 18-22 the years I look at; if WaP were still around there'd probably be a more detailed analysis). We're on 12, our max is 24, and present competitors are on 15-17. If we can go 4-2 beating who we need to beat (i.e. Dartmouth, Colgate, Princeton), we'll have a good shot. We have the Union tiebreak in hand, hopefully we can achieve the Colgate and Dartmouth tiebreaks.

I've stopped trying to hope for specific first round matches, because really anything can happen. In 2013, I wanted Brown on account of how we did vs. the other competitors, and look what happened. It's not completely lost though, given 2016. Whomever we get, we simply need to make sure that we take care of business on that step, and not worry about anything else down the road.

If it helps, I make this every week but don't post it in the projected standings thread:

RPI Points vs. Position
   |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
12 |                                                               [B]3.6[/B]   0.0
13 |                                                         0.1   [B]5.2[/B]   0.0
14 |                                                   0.0   2.0  [B]12.9[/B]   0.0
15 |                                                   0.4   4.2  [B]10.2[/B]      
16 |                                             0.0   3.2  [B]10.4[/B]   7.6      
17 |                                       0.0   0.2   5.2   [B]7.0[/B]   2.3      
18 |                                       0.0   1.6   [B]7.9[/B]   3.6   0.4      
19 |                                 0.0   0.2   2.1   [B]3.6[/B]   0.6   0.0      
20 |                           0.0   0.0   0.7   [B]2.0[/B]   1.2   0.0   0.0      
21 |                           0.0   0.1   [B]0.5   0.5[/B]   0.1   0.0            
22 |                           0.0   0.1   [B]0.2[/B]   0.1   0.0                  
23 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0                  
24 |                     0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  

[B]Bold[/B] values are the most likely outcome for each point total.
0.0 represents outcomes that occurred in fewer than 0.05% (i.e., 500) simulations
Blanks represent outcomes that did not occur in the simulations, though they may still be possible.
[I]Note: I have continued to be lazy and not code anything to handle ties between four or more teams or ties that go past the ECAC wins tiebreaker. Sorry.[/I]

Based on the simulation, we'll need at least two more wins to earn home ice and it doesn't become the likely outcome until we hit at least 4 wins.