RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Something that I would also appreciate being included in that data set is "assigned" PP time / shorthanded time. It has some issues, though.

For an example, let's go with the last game of the regular season.

Time    Event   Team
32:00   Penalty SLU
32:38   Goal    RPI
33:11   Penalty RPI

In the latter half of the second period, RPI had 38 seconds of PP and 120 seconds of penalty kill. If RPI doesn't score on the power-play, there's 71 seconds of non-overlapping power play for each team. Does the penalty get committed if the teams are not at even strength?

So, what's the correct value to put for this situation? Over a long sampling time, the decision of how these are dealt with should cancel out, but on the short term (such as only 22 games), a more or less proficient power-play unit can greatly skew these numbers.

I can look at so-called "assigned" times, but I don't know how to account for the problem situation you mention.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

DrD, I might get back to you on that later tonight. What you want is time on the PP vs. time shorthanded, thus ignoring matching/coincidental minors, 10:00 and game misconducts, and fighting majors, (of which I imagine there were none)? I'll probably only look at league games to limit this to 132 tilts.

Would be greatly appreciated-i do not know how to also account for those late third period penalty calls that show up on the stat sheet but result in zero power play time and zero short handed time. Honestly, i have wondered about this at various times over the past few years but never was able to sit down and calculate the numbers. My reason for trying to get this all together is that my sense is, this year we were short handed far more than we were with a man advantage and that difference was statistically significantly more than the rest of the ECAC. I could be far off base with this, but it has just been my perception.

 

[lugnut92]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Would be greatly appreciated-i do not know how to also account for those late third period penalty calls that show up on the stat sheet but result in zero power play time and zero short handed time. Honestly, i have wondered about this at various times over the past few years but never was able to sit down and calculate the numbers. My reason for trying to get this all together is that my sense is, this year we were short handed far more than we were with a man advantage and that difference was statistically significantly more than the rest of the ECAC. I could be far off base with this, but it has just been my perception.

So right now it looks like I'm going to give you 13 graphs. One summary of every ECAC game with Home PP time vs. Away PP time (not PIM, but actual time 5x4/5x3/4x3), and 12 team graphs with PP time vs. PK time. I dunno what kind of analysis I should really do other than maybe a lovely chi-square test to see if a team spends a statistically significant amount of time on the PP/PK.

 

[FreshFish]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Would be greatly appreciated-i do not know how to also account for those late third period penalty calls that show up on the stat sheet but result in zero power play time and zero short handed time. Honestly, i have wondered about this at various times over the past few years but never was able to sit down and calculate the numbers. My reason for trying to get this all together is that my sense is, this year we were short handed far more than we were with a man advantage and that difference was statistically significantly more than the rest of the ECAC. I could be far off base with this, but it has just been my perception.

Granted that your perception matches the data, it does not necessarily prove "bias", although that is indeed one possible explanation. I don't have the data handy but if there are a few players on the team who get called for most of the penalties and most of the players on the team rarely get called for penalties at all, that might be something else going on.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

It is not semantics, it is mathematics. Look at it this way, if one assumes that any penalty has a 50-50 chance of going for or against you, then it is akin to flipping a coin. If one flipped a coin 274 times how often would one expect to have no more than 108 successes? Well it so happens that we can use the cumulative binomial tables, the tool provided by url stattrek.com/on-line-calculator/binomial.aspx allows us to get an exact answer. The probability is 0.00027, less than 3/100ths of a percent (almost 4-sigma territory). This indeed surpasses the 'far more' criteria. One may ask then what would be the true chance of having a penalty called your way that would produce an expectancy of 50% cumulative probability given 108 successes out of 274 trials. That answer is 39.6% according to the stattrek calculator. So according to the empirical data, it would tell us that every time a penalty is called, there is a 60% chance it is on us.

The semantics part is what exactly does "far more" means.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

I am by no means any sort of statistician. All i would like to see is not which team gets the most penalty minutes or which team gets the least. That is not helpful to me or my point. I would like to see a listing or graph that shows which team has the most net penalties(or minutes) called per game or which teams have the least net penalties(or minutes) called per game. But the minutes get distorted by misconducts which do not leave you short handed, so i would like those to not be counted in the totals. For me that kind of listing would be most instructive and/or convincing. I guess what I am asking is a listing of the ECAC teams by net minutes on the power play and net minutes defending short handed. These are hard numbers to get since some penalties that are called overlap by so much that although we get credited with a power play chance, it might only be for a few seconds and similarly for opponents.
Don't mind me today, just bored and passing time until friday.

Edit; Also please remember that some officials have this knack of evening up the calls on the overall stat sheet by calling penalties with 1 second left in the third period. Those calls although registering as a penalty of 2 minutes, do not make a team short handed.

They didn't make you take a statistics course when you were in Pre-Med? I know that when I was a grad TA, one summer I taught an elementary statistics course which was taken by students in the RPI-Albany Medical School Bio-Med program.

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Just read the Round Table. Just... wow. Even I'm not THIS bad; at least get the system going first.

Personally I think that Casey Jones is a pretty good coach, and I agree that he only been there four years which isn't that long considering that that recruits commit several years before arriving on campus.

 

[Senna]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

one plausible explanation, in general, is that if a team generally is slower and less-skilled relative to the majority of its opponents, it likely will have fewer power plays and more penalty kills than its opponents. No bias necessary under that explanation. a 60% - 40% disparity would easily make sense.[SUP]1[/SUP]

Now, one might argue whether that explanation fits this team or not.....



[SUP]1[/SUP] Similar to basketball: the team that primarily takes outside jump shots typically is fouled less often than the team that drives the lane more often and crashes the boards.

I think we have a winner here. My only caveat is that I dont ncessarilyt want to say we are slower or are less skilled...but would definately say that we play more defensively and that other teams use the speed they have against us. Its our style of play that lends to this. You are not going to get this level of penalties when you have control of the puck and are using speed to maintain possession and are in the offensive zone (of course unless you punch someone after the whistle...).

 

[Senna]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

I am by no means any sort of statistician. All i would like to see is not which team gets the most penalty minutes or which team gets the least. That is not helpful to me or my point. I would like to see a listing or graph that shows which team has the most net penalties(or minutes) called per game or which teams have the least net penalties(or minutes) called per game. But the minutes get distorted by misconducts which do not leave you short handed, so i would like those to not be counted in the totals. For me that kind of listing would be most instructive and/or convincing. I guess what I am asking is a listing of the ECAC teams by net minutes on the power play and net minutes defending short handed. These are hard numbers to get since some penalties that are called overlap by so much that although we get credited with a power play chance, it might only be for a few seconds and similarly for opponents.
Don't mind me today, just bored and passing time until friday.

Edit; Also please remember that some officials have this knack of evening up the calls on the overall stat sheet by calling penalties with 1 second left in the third period. Those calls although registering as a penalty of 2 minutes, do not make a team short handed.

I would also love to understand how many of the penalties called against us (or the percentage) were in the defensive zone.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Granted that your perception matches the data, it does not necessarily prove "bias", although that is indeed one possible explanation. I don't have the data handy but if there are a few players on the team who get called for most of the penalties and most of the players on the team rarely get called for penalties at all, that might be something else going on.

FF: Not necessarily looking for bias. Just trying to understand how we seem to have to widest margin in the ECAC for penalty minutes called on opponents versus us. i cannot explain it just by saying the teams that lose the most get called more as princeton and Brown and Union (all of whom finished behind us in the league standings) do not show as much of a margin in calls.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

They didn't make you take a statistics course when you were in Pre-Med? I know that when I was a grad TA, one summer I taught an elementary statistics course which was taken by students in the RPI-Albany Medical School Bio-Med program.

I considered myself fortunate to pass the course I did take. Calculus with Dr. Maly cured me of wanting take anything extra in the mathematics department.
BTW-my daughter was a math teacher and was the math coordinator for a large NJ city.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

I think we have a winner here. My only caveat is that I dont ncessarilyt want to say we are slower or are less skilled...but would definately say that we play more defensively and that other teams use the speed they have against us. Its our style of play that lends to this. You are not going to get this level of penalties when you have control of the puck and are using speed to maintain possession and are in the offensive zone (of course unless you punch someone after the whistle...).

Senna: Just take a quick look at each ECAC team stats at hockeystats.com and look at the penalty minutes for and against for this past season. That is what started my thought process. I was just trying to define it a bit further. As you know, i have followed RPI hockey for a very long time and just do not recall a year like this one for us when it came to penalty calls(or face offs for that matter).

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

The semantics part is what exactly does "far more" means.

For me, this year the calls qualified as 'far more'

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Granted that your perception matches the data, it does not necessarily prove "bias", although that is indeed one possible explanation. I don't have the data handy but if there are a few players on the team who get called for most of the penalties and most of the players on the team rarely get called for penalties at all, that might be something else going on.

Wood, Wilson, and DeVito are all above 20 PIM on the conference season (30, 26, 23, respectively), with McGowan at 18 and Leonard and Bourbonnais at 16. Curadi only with 14. Three skaters with no penalties (Bell, Hampton, and Kenny G). Looks fairly spread out to me.

 

[rvd5star69]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Bring on slu

 

[LTsatch]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

My perspective from watching the least penalized team in the land all year is that it comes down to team discipline. Of course, less skilled and overwhelmed teams tend to take more penalties just out of desperation. Now if Yale could just learn how to score power play goals at Ingalls. That stat is another anomaly, 4 power play goals at home ALL SEASON.

 

[ServinisScores]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

from collegehockeystats.com...

PP Rank SH Rank
Brown 97 (11) 101 (11)
Clarkson 114 (5) 122 (6)
Colgate 133 (3) 127 (4)
Cornell 106 (8) 111 (8)
Dartmouth 103 (9) 109 (9)
Harvard 109 (6) 105 (10)
Princeton 101 (10) 121 (7)
Quinnipiac 136 (2) 124 (5)
Rensselaer 108 (7) 166 (1)
St. Lawrence 132 (4) 143 (2)
Union 170 (1) 128 (3)
Yale 95 (12) 78 (12)

RPI is middle of road in getting PP opps, but first in committing penalties, again, which aligns with their lack of discipline.

 

[turk181]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

“Stewie’s” kid would fit right in with RPI’s favorite response......Well, except for my boy. When he heard his name, he automatically responded, "sucks!" http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Paul-Stewart/Everyones-Favorite-Sport-Blaming-the-Officials/196/67019

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

I considered myself fortunate to pass the course I did take. Calculus with Dr. Maly cured me of wanting take anything extra in the mathematics department.
BTW-my daughter was a math teacher and was the math coordinator for a large NJ city.

Dis Maly (I love that name) was one of the best teachers that I had as an undergrad. He was rather strict, but I thought he knew how to teach rather well. BTW, he did not have a PhD. He had been hired before RPI required it of professors.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: RPI Hockey 2014-2015 Part II: Dedicated to Rich Curadi

Dis Maly (I love that name) was one of the best teachers that I had as an undergrad. He was rather strict, but I thought he knew how to teach rather well. BTW, he did not have a PhD. He had been hired before RPI required it of professors.

Was not being Dis Respectful to Dis Maly. Always thought he had his PhD. Just was always Dis Appointed and Dis Mayed with him as he gave me one of my only 4 B's in an otherwise Dis Tinguished record at the Tute.