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RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Ralph Baer said:
Even with a rough calculation there must be other things at work. That's a change of $160,000. At about $10 per ticket that's 16,000 tickets. (I am too lazy to look up the exact number but it, but I think including student tickets the average is probably significantly less.) Attendance hasn't gone up about 2000 per game, has it?

As a wild guess, the RPI-TV change might be due to not needing to by a lot of new equipment.
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A cut from the Mayor's Cup? I don't recall, but perhaps there are more ads along the boards or on the video wall?
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

FlagDUDE08 said:
Reason is because the plays are designed to set up one particular person (who shoots over the net most of the time), and everyone knows it. This is why we have the pass-pass-turnover power play. I don't know if it's a confidence issue, if the defending forwards are good at closing down lanes (which happens), or what, but we need to take more opportunities. Worst that could happen is a faceoff in the offensive zone, especially if the forwards are only looking to block the one guy.
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While I agree with the premise of "take more shots and chances", we need to have RPI players (particularly at the blue line) do it when there isn't a defender standing 3.2 feet in front of him. Won't name any names, but there are particular players past and present super-guilty of doing this. I understand you only have a split second to make a decision, but...
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

ibanezist00 said:
While I agree with the premise of "take more shots and chances", we need to have RPI players (particularly at the blue line) do it when there isn't a defender standing 3.2 feet in front of him. Won't name any names, but there are particular players past and present super-guilty of doing this. I understand you only have a split second to make a decision, but...
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Obviously you're not going to shoot with a forward in front of you. That's why I included that phrase in the response. It's going to happen, and there isn't much you can do about it.
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

burgie12 said:
Groan.

PS The home PP Conversion rate is 8/38, or 21.1%, so an E Stewart Jones power play is actually worth 0.211 goals... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaand I took it too far.
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Did you take SHGA into account, or major power plays where more than one goal has been scored? ;)
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Ralph Baer said:
Does another ESJ power play start on a major penalty if a goal has been scored?
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No, but wouldn't it count as if it were a higher payout on a bet? Similar to when calculating the house advantage on the Field bet in craps, you must take into account that the 2 and 12 pay 2 to 1 (and sometimes one of those pays 3 to 1)?
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Has anyone seen or heard from fr joe? He hasn't posted in over two months.
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Ralph Baer said:
Does another ESJ power play start on a major penalty if a goal has been scored?
Click to expand...

the number of power plays resulting from a 5-min penalty is one more than the number of goals scored during the 5-mins.)
goals=1 PP
1 goal= 2PP
etc.
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

FlagDUDE08 said:
He does have a point, though, that other games have a great effect on one's RatingsPI and PWR standing. Remember that you must include your win percentage, your opponents win percentage when not counting games against you, and your opponents' opponents winning percentage when not counting any of the aforementioned games, not to mention any bonus points from quality wins. You could model it (heck even I've tried), but given the amount of time it takes to calculate it once even with a computer because of the iterations, and there are I'd guess about 200 games still to be played, more than half of which have three potential outcomes instead of two, good luck.
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That is the reason why I qualified the analysis as not being rigorous. While it is true that all remaining games affect the PWR and RPI and there are now bonus points to be considered, it is not necessary to vary them all to answer the question I posed: Does Rensselaer have a possibility of attaining an At Large NCAA bid? I believe there are 247 scheduled NCAA regular season games remaining. Only 8 of them involve Rensselaer. To be able to pare the task to a manageable size, I chose only to vary those 8 games. I assumed that the remaining 239 games can be held as ‘constants’ because for such large numbers, statistically the results will trend toward the mean - in this case, the end of regular season PWR standings will mimic the distribution of PWRs that currently exist after 19 weeks of play. As you correctly point out, 3^247 = 7.06 E+117 combinations is a formidable task to model, while 3^8 = 6,561 different outcomes is easily managed. So admittedly the analysis lacks the fidelity of a brute-force complete simulation but is good enough, I believe, to answer the original question. Qualitative answer is yes. Quantitative answer is unknown.
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Not sure how anyone else feels about this-but I would certainly like boxscores to list how many actual minutes of man advantage time a team has during a game. Not simply each team had 4 penalties for 8 minutes total. I would like to know how much of that time actually was man advantage and not overlapping. Additionally I would like to know the power play goals scored per minutes of actual power play time(a 5 minute major should be different from a 2 minute penalty). As of now in box scores, when a team has had 2 majors and 2 minors and the opposition has scored 1 goal-it is listed as power play success 1 out of 4(i would prefer that to read 1 out of 14 minutes). Not all power play opportunites are the same and i just wish there was a simple listing to indicate a bit more about them. Just ruminating a bit today as the weather has been depressing as heck here in NJ.
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

DeepRed72 said:
That is the reason why I qualified the analysis as not being rigorous. While it is true that all remaining games affect the PWR and RPI and there are now bonus points to be considered, it is not necessary to vary them all to answer the question I posed: Does Rensselaer have a possibility of attaining an At Large NCAA bid? I believe there are 247 scheduled NCAA regular season games remaining. Only 8 of them involve Rensselaer. To be able to pare the task to a manageable size, I chose only to vary those 8 games. I assumed that the remaining 239 games can be held as ‘constants’ because for such large numbers, statistically the results will trend toward the mean - in this case, the end of regular season PWR standings will mimic the distribution of PWRs that currently exist after 19 weeks of play. As you correctly point out, 3^247 = 7.06 E+117 combinations is a formidable task to model, while 3^8 = 6,561 different outcomes is easily managed. So admittedly the analysis lacks the fidelity of a brute-force complete simulation but is good enough, I believe, to answer the original question. Qualitative answer is yes. Quantitative answer is unknown.
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Remember that you must take conference playoffs into account as well. The only way I see RPI making it at large, and even then I don't think it's possible because of our OOC record (people forget that in the year we were the last at-large team in, we went 8-1-3 OOC, and those teams either did very well or pulled some spoiler upsets in the case of UAH), is if they can pull off 12 wins to make it to LP, and then see some magic from teams we have beat OOC, which the only feasible one at this point is New Hampshire. The one thing we do have going for us is that we have played the top or second top (in the case of Denver) team in all of the other leagues, which improves the OWP component. Record v TUC is no longer considered, so playing the top teams in the nation doesn't help there.
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

DrDemento said:
Not sure how anyone else feels about this-but I would certainly like boxscores to list how many actual minutes of man advantage time a team has during a game. Not simply each team had 4 penalties for 8 minutes total. I would like to know how much of that time actually was man advantage and not overlapping. Additionally I would like to know the power play goals scored per minutes of actual power play time(a 5 minute major should be different from a 2 minute penalty). As of now in box scores, when a team has had 2 majors and 2 minors and the opposition has scored 1 goal-it is listed as power play success 1 out of 4(i would prefer that to read 1 out of 14 minutes). Not all power play opportunites are the same and i just wish there was a simple listing to indicate a bit more about them. Just ruminating a bit today as the weather has been depressing as heck here in NJ.
Click to expand...

One possible result of this extra information might be to learn how quickly a team has success on the power play as well. if the power play goal is scored after 30 seconds, would your method show as 1 out of 0.5 minutes? while if the power play goal is scored a minute later, would it read as 1 out of 1.5 minutes?
 
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Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

Jasma said:
the number of power plays resulting from a 5-min penalty is one more than the number of goals scored during the 5-mins.)
goals=1 PP
1 goal= 2PP
etc.
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I realize that, but there is no reason that an ESP corresponds to it. They don't announce it again after a goal is cored as far as I recall. (Thus definitely is drivel. :) )
 
Re: RPI 2013/14 Part III: Maximum Overdrivel

FreshFish said:
Last post Nov 28 2013. Does RPI have an alumni news website? His profile says he is a 1977 grad. Maybe there's some news there?
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YEs there is one, but I doubt that there is anything there. He probably got disgusted with all the drivel. I just thought someone might have seen him recently at the HFH.
 
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