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RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

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Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

RHamilton said:
Absolutely, I'll send you an email with my findings. I believe I'm at somewhere around 4 or 5 hours away from exhausting all 1,179,648 permutations.
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After the two WCHA games on Thursday, there will be 294,912 remaining scenarios. Are you saving the appropriate information so they can be recombined, or will you have to run those cases again? Knowing me, if I had done these calculations, I wouldn't have saved something important. :(
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

FlagDUDE08 said:
Either that, or if your code is open-source, I'm sure there are plenty of us that would be willing to help run scenarios.
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I'm in. Whatever you guys need. What's a code? What's an open source? Wait, tb and I will run our einey meeney miney moo scenario tonight again to check for validity. We also plan on putting the teams on a dart board and getting drunk and then throw darts randomly to see who we come up with. This is very scientific so only professionals like tb and myself should try this methodolgy.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Wish some1 would run scenarios with Western losing both...see if Wodon is right ?
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

realet said:
Actually, there's probably a better likelihood that they'll miss the tournament altogether than being placed in Bridgeport.
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That was my thought also, but I didn't want to incur RC's wrath. ;) With the chance of us missing being about 15% and four tourney locations, that makes sense.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

I ran a comp with western losing twice.....RPI finished #11 !!!
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Ran it with Western winning the consol...RPI fiished #12
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

sshablak said:
I ran a comp with western losing twice.....RPI finished #11 !!!
Click to expand...
sshablak said:
Ran it with Western winning the consol...RPI fiished #12
Click to expand...
Congratulations!! You discovered that there are roughly 200,000 different ways for the other 17 games to play out assuming that Western Michigan loses twice!

Here: WMU loses twice, RPI finishes 15th and misses out because Bemidji State, Colgate, and RIT win auto-bids (one of the nearly 200,000 possible scenarios when Western Michigan loses two games).

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force

CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan

ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Yale defeats Cornell

Hockey East
Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Northeastern

WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Bemidji State defeats Colorado College
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

burgie12 said:
Congratulations!! You discovered that there are roughly 200,000 different ways for the other 17 games to play out assuming that Western Michigan loses twice!

Here: WMU loses twice, RPI finishes 15th and misses out because Bemidji State, Colgate, and RIT win auto-bids (one of the nearly 200,000 possible scenarios when Western Michigan loses two games).

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: Air Force defeats Holy Cross
Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Connecticut
Championship game: RIT defeats Air Force

CCHA
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Notre Dame
Semifinal #1: Michigan defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Michigan defeats Miami
Consolation game: Notre Dame defeats Western Michigan

ECAC
Semifinal #2: Dartmouth defeats Cornell
Semifinal #1: Colgate defeats Yale
Championship game: Colgate defeats Dartmouth
Consolation game: Yale defeats Cornell

Hockey East
Semifinal #2: New Hampshire defeats Merrimack
Semifinal #1: Northeastern defeats Boston College
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Northeastern

WCHA
Play-in #2: Bemidji State defeats Minnesota-Duluth
Play-in #1: Colorado College defeats Alaska-Anchorage
Semifinal #2: Bemidji State defeats Denver
Semifinal #1: Colorado College defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Bemidji State defeats Colorado College
Click to expand...

Don't tempt Shabby with a scenario with Colgate winning out. :p
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Given the way the PWR works out, I've come to the conclusion that consolation games should not be played because of the possible moral hazard they present. For instance, let's say Colgate and Cornell win in the Semis. Yale makes the tournament no matter what and therefore they have no real incentive to take it to Dartmouth. Win or lose, they're hanging in Bridgeport the following weekend. Meanwhile Dartmouth is out of the NCAA if they lose - but in if they tie. What stops the two coaches from essentially playing it like a scrimmage and shooting for a tie? Heck, even if they play hard on both sides, if the game is tied late, what's the chance that they won't simply skate circles during OT? And if this all happens what does the league do - why celebrate that 4 ECAC teams are in the tournament (and maybe 5).

Much of the same applies to a WM consolation game against any of the other 3 CCHA teams.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Good Lord...Thought I had good news for you guys....and you poop on me ! Guess I should have known better.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

sshablak said:
Good Lord...Thought I had good news for you guys....and you poop on me ! Guess I should have known better.
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We're all for good news, but you were setting forth an overinclusive general proposition that we have already considered ad nauseum.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

sshablak said:
Good Lord...Thought I had good news for you guys....and you poop on me ! Guess I should have known better.
Click to expand...

We are engineers! we know deep in our heart that Murphy was an optimist!

"I thought it was the light at the end of the tunnel, while really it was the headlight of the oncoming train."
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

jmhusker said:
Given the way the PWR works out, I've come to the conclusion that consolation games should not be played because of the possible moral hazard they present. For instance, let's say Colgate and Cornell win in the Semis. Yale makes the tournament no matter what and therefore they have no real incentive to take it to Dartmouth. Win or lose, they're hanging in Bridgeport the following weekend. Meanwhile Dartmouth is out of the NCAA if they lose - but in if they tie. What stops the two coaches from essentially playing it like a scrimmage and shooting for a tie? Heck, even if they play hard on both sides, if the game is tied late, what's the chance that they won't simply skate circles during OT? And if this all happens what does the league do - why celebrate that 4 ECAC teams are in the tournament (and maybe 5).

Much of the same applies to a WM consolation game against any of the other 3 CCHA teams.
Click to expand...

I'm getting dizzy. This all makes just so much sense. The system could reward a team for laying down in a consolation game.:confused:
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Now I am beginning to wonder if we had won the third Colgate game in OT-and then lost to Cornell in Ithaca in 2 games what our chances of making the Tournament would be?
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

DrDemento said:
Now I am beginning to wonder if we had won the third Colgate game in OT-and then lost to Cornell in Ithaca in 2 games what our chances of making the Tournament would be?
Click to expand...

Practically nil. Our RPI and TUC records would be lower than they are now.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

knsmith said:
We're all for good news, but you were setting forth an overinclusive general proposition that we have already considered ad nauseum.
Click to expand...
Exactly. Probabilities are good, but certainties should be left to things that are actually certainties.
 
Re: RPI 2010-2011 V: The "Chase" to AC & Beyond

Less than 50 hours to get your picks into the ECAC Pick The Playoffs Final Round.
 
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