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Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Kepler said:
I dunno. From what I've heard about The County, we probably can't expect sentience there.
Click to expand...

Its not just the county, its the coast also. If it were just the county it would go Trump. I think its close but goes to Hilary. At this point Hilary wins easily, the question remains how senate races go and how Congressional races turnout.

Never seen so much money spent on 2nd district congressional race here in Maine. The amount of TV ads is staggering(averaging 335 a day according to some reports). As many as 4 in row during local news. Its a tossup at this point. Cain is way to liberal for me and Poliquin is way to slimy.

EDIT: Clinton 538, Trump 0
 
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Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Watch just 3 things:

- The ME 2 district
- PA
- NC

If those all go to Clinton the night's done early.
If two of those three go Trump, suddenly you're watching FL and OH. <-- If those go Trump, you then look at VA and MI (believe it or not).
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

FlagDUDE08 said:
I don't even have to read the paper to find out who won. All I have to see is who complains about a hangover from partying too hard, and who goes all emo and tries to slit their wrists. All while the Stein supporters, the Johnson supporters, and I sit in the corner and facepalm at the stupidity.
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If you think it is stupid then it is obviously right. Scooby is right more often than you Wal-Mart Death Camp Boy :D
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

It's easy to just give up. No thinking, action, or any effort at all required.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

Kepler said:
It's easy to just give up. No thinking, action, or any effort at all required.
Click to expand...

My Presidential prediction:
Kepler wakes up tomorrow morning somewhere between disinterested and melancholy at the thought of Clinton 45. (Bernie Ex Machina will have been consumed.)
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

The Sicatoka said:
My Presidential prediction:
Kepler wakes up tomorrow morning somewhere between disinterested and melancholy at the thought of Clinton 45. (Bernie Ex Machina will have been consumed.)
Click to expand...

If she beats the Caramel Cancer it will take me at least six months before I forget how close we came and start nipping at her heels.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

The Sicatoka said:
My Presidential prediction:
Kepler wakes up tomorrow morning somewhere between disinterested and melancholy at the thought of Clinton 45. (Bernie Ex Machina will have been consumed.)
Click to expand...

I wont be melancholy...but I will wonder what could have been :(
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

walrus said:
Its not just the county, its the coast also. If it were just the county it would go Trump.
Click to expand...

The French communities of the St. John Valley has been a long Democratic stronghold, but I think they have been slowly realigning themselves with the Republicans -- I think LePage picked up some of those towns, so it's possible it will go Republican. Based on 2012, I think Piscataquis followed by Washington are the most likely to go Trump. (Piscataquis is the only county in Maine that did not go for Obama in 2008 or 2012). I think either "The County" or Somerset are probably 3rd in line to get on the Trump Train and I think they are probably tossups this year. The fact that all of the Penobscot River paper mills have closed in recent years helps Trump.

I've linked to a map of how each municipality in Maine voted in 2012. The colors are opposite of what we expect now (RED=Democrat, BLUE=Republican, and for people that don't know Maine GREY=unincorporated). You can see Obama did well in the St John Valley in the northern part of "The County". The County a a whole went to Obama in 2008 and 2012, and in fact Aroostook County hasn't voted for an R for president since 1988.

Maine by municipality 2012:
http://uselectionatlas.org/WEBLOGS/...e-2012-presidential-election-results-by-town/
 
walrus said:
Its not just the county, its the coast also. If it were just the county it would go Trump. I think its close but goes to Hilary. At this point Hilary wins easily, the question remains how senate races go and how Congressional races turnout.

Never seen so much money spent on 2nd district congressional race here in Maine. The amount of TV ads is staggering(averaging 335 a day according to some reports). As many as 4 in row during local news. Its a tossup at this point. Cain is way to liberal for me and Poliquin is way to slimy.

EDIT: Clinton 538, Trump 0
Click to expand...

And since the Portland TV market reaches into both CD2 and NH the evening news has been unbearable for the past two months. I think every single ad from 5-7pm is a campaign ad - and none of them are aimed at us.

The irony of the CD2 race is I know both Emily and Bruce personally and they are both wonderful people. I just find Bruce's politics abhorrent. He should go back to working with high school kids. He was a phenomenal coach.
 
Re: Presidential Election Prediction Thread

I don't have the resources to do it nationwide, I do think it would be interesting to notice how different the results might be if electors were chosen by Congressional district rather than by the state as a whole (every state would still have two statewide electors because of the Senate). Trump would do a lot better in NY and CA and IL under a system like that.

In CT, I will try to check the state results and see if, instead of 7 - 0, it would be more like 4 - 3 or 5 - 2. Typically, the "ground game" in Bridgeport, Hartford, and New Haven is enough to carry the state for D, no matter how the rest of the state votes.
 
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