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POTUS 45.64: Governance By Unhinged Twitter Rants

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Politico starting the BS early I see...well we might as well all quit now because apparently the silent majority is going to come out and vote but never talk to pollsters!!

I wont even bother arguing with their hypothesis it is so basic and ignores so many factors it isnt worth the time.

(no that in no way means I think this is a lock)
 
Also... After Hurricane Maria, the goddammed son of a b*tch wanted to sell Puerto Rico off as if it was a sh*tty casino in an effort to "better the bottom line," instead of, oh I don't know, HELPING THE GODDAMMED CITIZENS OF HIS OWN F*CKING COUNTRY.

Ecq33OfWsAEM480

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1282039263178129408
 
aparch said:
Turns out Scooby is a representative from Michigan.
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She may not be wrong.

One of the polling firms that had Trump winning in 2016 (can't remember the name or seem to find an article at the moment) found something along the lines of a "neighbor vote." aka more people are likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than people who say they will vote for Trump. That same firm came out a couple weeks ago and said that neighbor vote is actually more pronounced now than it was in 2016.

Still, ten percent is a lot.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
She may not be wrong.

One of the polling firms that had Trump winning in 2016 (can't remember the name or seem to find an article at the moment) found something along the lines of a "neighbor vote." aka more people are likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than people who say they will vote for Trump. That same firm came out a couple weeks ago and said that neighbor vote is actually more pronounced now than it was in 2016.

Still, ten percent is a lot.
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Most of the national polls in 2016 were correct. Hillary was going to win by 2 or 3 points. And she did. The state polls also showed that states like PA, MI and WI were close. They were. Most polls had her losing Ohio. She did. This time the polling is different. Biden is winning in all the states Clinton won in 2016 and in a number she lost he is up way beyond the margin of error. Pollsters learn from election to election. They rely less on exit polls on election day now. The most reliable polls ask about your likelihood of voting. Some pollsters are asking more non-college educated white men because they found them to be undercounted in 2016 in some states. And the biggy, there is no visceral dislike of Biden. Many are not thrilled with him, but I honestly have never been thrilled with a single candidate for president I have ever voted for. I was thrilled to vote for someone who didn't look like me in 2008 moreso than I was thrilled with Obama.

I think it is different in 2020. But of course that doesn't mean we should count our chickens. Keep reminding your family and friends to look into getting their absentee ballots. MAKE A PLAN AROUND YOUR VOTING AND ASK YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY TO DO THE SAME!
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
She may not be wrong.

One of the polling firms that had Trump winning in 2016 (can't remember the name or seem to find an article at the moment) found something along the lines of a "neighbor vote." aka more people are likely to say that their neighbor will vote for Trump than people who say they will vote for Trump. That same firm came out a couple weeks ago and said that neighbor vote is actually more pronounced now than it was in 2016.

Still, ten percent is a lot.
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Except that it doesnt seem likely Trump will actually add any voters to his vote total. We know with a pretty solid degree of certainty the range with which he will hit even in a loss. Hell the pollsters that are being derided werent even that far off in the first place. (I believe unofan has discussed this many times around here) Where Politico is getting it wrong isnt that the Trump voter is being ignored by the polls because they tend to stay silent. That may have been true going into 2016 but now we know they exist and maybe arent participating and can deal with that. Much like everything Politico does they water down the actual issue to the point that there is no actual meat on the bones. It assumes pollsters are making the exact same mistake that happened before, even though there is no evidence of that being true. Extrapolating one Rep's situation (which is hardly representative of other situations) is just ridiculous.

The other half of the equation is that no one was expecting the Dems to stay home in sufficient numbers (in particularly vulnerable spots) and never put that into their projections. They assumed larger participation and that just didnt happen. 2018 showed us what should have been the case. If Dems come out like they did in 2018 or even close to it the "silent Trumper" wont matter.

The point isnt who votes for him, the point is who votes for us. If we turn out he loses, if we dont then its all over but the shouting. The polls arent there to make predictions they are there to represent a specific moment in time. Their usefullness is more to show trends.

(I am not a pollster but the ones I follow and are respected absolutely do not ignore the "Silent Trumper" in fact they count on it)
 
WeAreNDHockey said:
Keep reminding your family and friends to look into getting their absentee ballots. MAKE A PLAN AROUND YOUR VOTING AND ASK YOUR FRIENDS AND FAMILY TO DO THE SAME!
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Send everyone you know who is not most likely to vote R this and then keep after them.

1. Register
2. Confirm your registration, particularly in a state where the Nazis have any type of power against voter rolls
3. Request vote by mail
4. Check often you have not been f-cked over

The Nazis are playing for keeps. We are smarter but we also have to be faster, more tenacious, and stronger than they.
 
Isn't Fisher the Repub donor with no real experience in major construction, or am I mistaken? I know they only got to build this wall because they so aggressively lobbied to do it.
 
Trump’s Presidency Is About to Enter Chapter 11

Pardons! Maybe Roger Stone, Michael Flynn, and 2016 campaign chair Paul Manafort, all confessed or convicted lawbreakers. Maybe Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who allegedly misused government resources, bypassed Congressional regulations to sell arms to Saudi Arabia, and then got the inspector general investigating it fired. Maybe Jared and Ivanka, Don Jr., and — sure why not — Eric. The pardon power is basically unlimited.

Except for this: can a president pardon himself? Lawyers are on various sides of that question, and it hasn’t been tested. Maybe we’ll find out.

Or maybe Trump will resign in January so Pence can pardon him.
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If he gets spanked in November and has no hope of challenging/overturning the results, he will try to pardon himself and it will go to SCOTUS for a decision. Republicans and their voters will justify it by saying that if Hillary and Obama get to walk for their "crimes", so should Dump and his crew.
 
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