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POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

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Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

alfablue said:
On page 61 of this report- https://www.nber.org/papers/w20625.pdf you can see that the top 1% saves in the 40% range of their income, whereas the bottom 90% saves near 0% of their income. So $1B to the bottom 90% goes right into the economy at $1B, but $1B to the top 1% goes into the economy at $600M.

It's not hard to figure out which will have a larger impact.
Click to expand...

Saving = Spending on investments, which is one component of GDP, as is consumer spending. Whether I buy a car for 20k, or buy a Bank CD for 20k, the GDP goes up by $20k. The only way what your saying is sort of true is if everybody that's saving is simply putting cash under their mattresses. In fact whether I buy a car for 20k, or stick $20k in the bank, the spending is the same. The bank doesn't just keep the money, they lend the 20K to somebody who spends it on a $20k car, or somebody that is spending it building a factory. If I buy newly issued stock, the issuing company takes the money and spends it on whatever it is they needed to raise capital for. If I spend it on investing in the stock market, that creates value through market forces. Saving (spending on investment) or consumer spending have a dollar for dollar effect on GDP.
 
Wisko McBadgerton said:
Saving = Spending on investments, which is one component of GDP, as is consumer spending. Whether I buy a car for 20k, or buy a Bank CD for 20k, the GDP goes up by $20k. The only way what your saying is sort of true is if everybody that's saving is simply putting cash under their mattresses. In fact whether I buy a car for 20k, or stick $20k in the bank, the spending is the same. The bank doesn't just keep the money, they lend the 20K to somebody who spends it on a $20k car, or somebody that is spending it building a factory. If I buy newly issued stock, the issuing company takes the money and spends it on whatever it is they needed to raise capital for. If I spend it on investing in the stock market, that creates value through market forces. Saving (spending on investment) or consumer spending have a dollar for dollar effect on GDP.
Click to expand...

GDP measures spending on goods and services, not investments. A capital expenditure counts, but a financial instrument does not. So a new home or a basement renovation counts, a stock purchase or savings account does not.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Saving = Spending on investments, which is one component of GDP, as is consumer spending. Whether I buy a car for 20k, or buy a Bank CD for 20k, the GDP goes up by $20k. The only way what your saying is sort of true is if everybody that's saving is simply putting cash under their mattresses. In fact whether I buy a car for 20k, or stick $20k in the bank, the spending is the same. The bank doesn't just keep the money, they lend the 20K to somebody who spends it on a $20k car, or somebody that is spending it building a factory. If I buy newly issued stock, the issuing company takes the money and spends it on whatever it is they needed to raise capital for. If I spend it on investing in the stock market, that creates value through market forces. Saving (spending on investment) or consumer spending have a dollar for dollar effect on GDP.
Click to expand...

No, a $20k car is not the same as a $20k investment. Not even close.

The car, being a consumer item, will just decline in value, to eventually the point that it will be forced to be removed from the market, and you have to buy another one. The savings (no matter where it goes) should go up in value, to the point that you don't have to put anything back into it, as it never wears out.

Second, the car, being a produced product- most of the money you spend on it goes to the various people it took to make that car. So other than the few percent that ends up going into company profits, your $20k of car spending recirculates via spending of the people who made the car- all the way from the assembly line person to the miners who dig the materials out of the ground. Your savings money goes to nobody- other than the fees that are taken by the company you perform that action with. Trading shares only effects the individual buyer and seller- the company you invest in does NOT ever see that money. Ever. Unless you bought it during an IPO, you are giving money to some other trader if that investment is for stock. BTDT- I've seen our stock go from $30/share to under $2/share, and that did not change our operating cash what so ever. The REASON we were at $2 had a huge impact on us getting good rates on bonds, though.

Think about it more- you will realize that spending money in the stock market, trying to build up your "savings" does not actually contribute to the overall economy, whereas spending money on *stuff* does.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

Some more on the theory of trickle down...

Companies don't expand their company for the sake of expanding it- that makes zero economic sense. They expand when the demand of their product goes up, so that they have to make more of the product they sell. Investment into the product is done to either keep the product relevant, make a new product to sell, or increase the value of the product to the consumer of it so that they will be willing to pay more for it.

There's no basis in reality that just having more money will make companies expand. Without the market, that expansion will just end up killing the company.

So enough if this BS that lower taxes will lead to companies spending more on employees. There's zero logic in that, and has been borne each time we try cutting those taxes.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

If we continue to masturbate to Ayn Rand we're never going to have a strong middle class ever again.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

The tax returns are still under audit.

**** my life the lies this ****er gets away with.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

This is the most combative press conference I have ever seen.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

Deets (or a link to a live blog or Twitter updates) please for those of us who cant watch?
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

unofan said:
Congress can still subpoena it come January.
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So the process is what then? The House issues a subpoena. Trump ignores it or asserts some sort of executive privilege. It's then referred to the Justice Department? They have to pursue some sort of contempt charge?

A federal judge decides the issue? Gets appealed to the Circuit Court of Appeals, then to the Supremes?

Is that basically what we can expect?

Time frame?
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

unofan said:
GDP measures spending on goods and services, not investments. A capital expenditure counts, but a financial instrument does not. So a new home or a basement renovation counts, a stock purchase or savings account does not.
Click to expand...

Yes, thanks, jumbled that up a bit in my haste. My point there is that a bond purchase or a savings account represent an equal amount of spending on fixed investment. The whole purpose of the bank is to see that the money in a savings account is spent on something through loaning it out to do so. Bonds or new stock issue investment basically represent the same amount in spending. Money in, is money out.

Stock market investment itself is different and I meant to separate but I didn't. I don't think there's enough time or space to go all the way into a complete market economics course or it's importance to the economy here so I think I'll beg off and leave it alone for now.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

Interesting dynamic pointed out by Daniel Dale (was looking through Twitter for details on earlier media catfight).

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It's striking to me that no one is directly challenging Trump about the big House defeat. Obama was peppered with "what did you screw up, why do you think people dislike you" questions after his midterms.</p>— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) <a href="https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1060224789061816321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

Wisko McBadgerton said:
Yes, thanks, jumbled that up a bit in my haste. My point there is that a bond purchase or a savings account represent an equal amount of spending on fixed investment. The whole purpose of the bank is to see that the money in a savings account is spent on something through loaning it out to do so. Bonds or new stock issue investment basically represent the same amount in spending. Money in, is money out.

Stock market investment itself is different and I meant to separate but I didn't. I don't think there's enough time or space to go all the way into a complete market economics course or it's importance to the economy here so I think I'll beg off and leave it alone for now.
Click to expand...

A car is not a fixed investment. It's a product you spend money on to provide transportation. Not an investment. Nor are any other consumer goods.

Unless you are buying new, I would not put a home or real estate into a consumer good, either. It's "value" is never realized until it's sold. It's use is seen as you live in it. So it's kind of a stock and kind of something you use. But not like a car- which just gets used until it has to be removed from the road.

Also- banks don't actually loan out your savings- they loan out the value of your savings. So if I went to a bank today and deposited $20k, and tomorrow they then loan out $20k of value, I can still come back the day after and take out my $20k- and the bank is now at risk of losing their $20k loan with no collateral. So lets stop that silly talk, too. The money is mine, and always will be mine. And the value does not go down due to usage of the product, or if the person who has the loan defaults. It's my $20k.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

SJHovey said:
So the process is what then? The House issues a subpoena. Trump ignores it or asserts some sort of executive privilege. It's then referred to the Justice Department? They have to pursue some sort of contempt charge?

A federal judge decides the issue? Gets appealed to the Circuit Court of Appeals, then to the Supremes?

Is that basically what we can expect?

Time frame?
Click to expand...

Seems to me it would be far more efficient to go directly to the SCOTUS. Especially since it's a direct conflict between two of the 3 arms of US government.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

aparch said:
Interesting dynamic pointed out by Daniel Dale (was looking through Twitter for details on earlier media catfight).

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It's striking to me that no one is directly challenging Trump about the big House defeat. Obama was peppered with "what did you screw up, why do you think people dislike you" questions after his midterms.</p>— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) <a href="https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1060224789061816321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

Because Obama also lost 6 Senate seats in addition to the House. Trump can bull**** because he's winning 4-5 Senate seats while losing the House.
 
Re: POTUS 45.43: The Caravan is Coming. Fear the Caravan.

aparch said:
Interesting dynamic pointed out by Daniel Dale (was looking through Twitter for details on earlier media catfight).

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">It's striking to me that no one is directly challenging Trump about the big House defeat. Obama was peppered with "what did you screw up, why do you think people dislike you" questions after his midterms.</p>— Daniel Dale (@ddale8) <a href="https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1060224789061816321?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Click to expand...

Won't work with Trump. Every time they ask he calls it a great victory.
 
aparch said:
Deets (or a link to a live blog or Twitter updates) please for those of us who cant watch?
Click to expand...
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">BREAKING: President Trump, CNN Correspondent Jim Acosta and <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NBCNews</a> Correspondent <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@PeterAlexander</a> engage in tense exchanges in post-election news conference. <a href="https://t.co/WUlXemGn7y">pic.twitter.com/WUlXemGn7y</a></p>— NBC News (@NBCNews) <a href="https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1060223697838137345?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 7, 2018</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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