Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

[john0128]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

I think goalies in the CHA, hockey east and ECAC have an unfair statistical advantage. Lets take Erica Howe, who is a phenomenal goaltender, but if you look at her stats, she has yet to play in a single game where she has had to make 30 or more saves, 9 of her 19 GP were against weaker ECAC and out of conference teams that struggle to score in general, and her stats against top end team like UND, Cornell and Harvard are not as strong as her stats against weaker teams. She is just one example, many other goalies who lead the country in GAA and save percentage are in the same boat. I'm sorry to say that a 25 save shutout against union or linden wood does not mean much, at least to me. When you look at Rigsby and Maschmeyer, for example, her stats against top end teams like are not weak.

All this to say that goalies in the CHA, hockey east and top end teams in the ECAC have an unfair advantage. They get to play weak opponents that bolster their stats, but when they do play the stronger opponents they cannot make a difference. With such a big talent disparity between the top and bottom in each league, it is expected that goalies who play for the best teams will have the best stats since they rarely have to face top competition. Not to say that these goalies couldn't handle the stronger opponents, but more that if you look closely, many goalies who are leading the country right now are not playing as well as their stats suggest. The one exception is the WCHA, where you can argue that the talent gap is smaller so there are fewer stat bolstering games. Even so, the WCHA goalies still get some stat bolstering.

This is only a problem in women's NCAA hockey, which is why I believe it is so hard for a goalie to win the Kaz. The goalies with the best stats will never get much attention if they play for strong teams because the judges know that their stats are inflated, and if the only reason you got nominated in the first place is because your GAA and save percentage are ridiculously high because you play so many weak opponents, then do you really deserve it?

 

[NMH]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

If it is in fact Rigsby's knee, I think it is a bit optimistic to assume she can play 120 minutes a weekend through January. It reminds me of three years ago when Emily West hurt her knee opening weekend, sat for a month, played the UW series, and was then done for the year. Goalies have to stand on their knees for the whole game with no breaks, so I wouldn't push it that hard.

The 2007-08 team didn't have anyone putting up huge numbers either; it was only in subsequent years that Duggan and Knight from that roster were viewed as superstars. I'd say you have a couple of players on your roster this year that will be stars before their NCAA careers are done. Even without Decker, I think you have better overall talent this year than last.

The whole convo is speculation, which I know is the point. You're right that this team has potential, but if we're talking about Rigsby's performance this year, we have to talk about the team this year.

The Badgers don't play again til January 3-4, which gives Rigsby 5 weeks off the knee for it to heal. She was in a brace, but no crutches and walking fine this weekend. Who knows what the future of the injury will bring, but based on the info we have, I think the team is being extra cautious and moving forward she should be fine.

 

[ARM]

The whole convo is speculation, which I know is the point. You're right that this team has potential, but if we're talking about Rigsby's performance this year, we have to talk about the team this year.

I am talking about this year, and saying it looks to me similar to the supporting cast that Vetter had in 2007-08. One key is that your team defense -- all five skaters on the ice -- is a lot farther along to date this year than what Vetter was playing behind in the fall of 2007.

Anyway, I agree that Rigsby belongs in the discussion, and I gave her the first mention in this thread. IMO, her season so far comes up short compared to that of Maschmeyer and is definitely below what Vetter had in winning in 2009. Admittedly, that was with a much stronger team in front of her, but the Kaz voters haven't typically given players a boost for playing on weaker teams.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Anyway, I agree that Rigsby belongs in the discussion, and I gave her the first mention in this thread. IMO, her season so far comes up short compared to that of Maschmeyer

These 2 just about have identical stats, what makes you believe that Maschmeyer is better?

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Timing for a goalie to get recognized for PK is everything. Last year Raty ran into an incredible year by Kessel, any other year she likely would have won. This year there is a lot of balance at the top for offensive numbers....so a goalie likely will have a better chance to win.

 

[HankScorpio]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Timing for a goalie to get recognized for PK is everything. Last year Raty ran into an incredible year by Kessel, any other year she likely would have won. This year there is a lot of balance at the top for offensive numbers....so a goalie likely will have a better chance to win.

Biggest problem Räty ran into was not being a North American...

These 2 just about have identical stats, what makes you believe that Maschmeyer is better?

I have to agree with Timothy and say that Rigsby is by far the better goalie. Sure the numbers the two are putting up are similar, but I'd like to see Maschmeyer's numbers against the opponents Rigsby has to face each week.

 

[john0128]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

These 2 just about have identical stats, what makes you believe that Maschmeyer is better?

This is a tough one, mashmeyer plays for a weaker team and sees more shots than Rigsby but Harvard's schedule is also much weaker than Wisconsin's. The only way to decide which goalie is better would be to see them play in person, and to look at how many games they stole for their respective teams. Without seeing the quality of shots they face each game and the way their D play in front of them, you wouldn't be able to tell them apart.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Biggest problem Räty ran into was not being a North American...

....That is a loaded assumption to make... .....Do not agree, neither with that comment nor with that observation..

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

The PK award discussion always seems to revert back to stats, ease vs difficulty of opponent etc etc.

For the purposes of comparisons for this award, I would be in favor to throw out the personal stats for any game against teams that are below a certain caliber, bottom 13 in RPI just to use an example. This would avoid the stats padding efforts often done by strong teams with PK candidates when facing weaker teams. IMHO strong teams should develop their 2nd, 3rd and 4th line when they have a comfy lead in those games rather than use it for stats padding. I've witnessed stats padding first hand on several occasions in the past. The most ugly scenario was a top line of the leading team kept coming out on the PP in a 8-0 game.

JMO.

 

[ARM]

These 2 just about have identical stats, what makes you believe that Maschmeyer is better?

I'm not saying Maschmeyer is better; I said I thought that her season was. I didn't come into the year as that big of a Maschmeyer fan, because I remembered too clearly the softies she allowed to BC in the NCAAs.

Wisconsin stacks several layers of defense in front of Rigsby. Just to get a puck to the net takes a lot of creativity by the offense. The defense also limits penetration to the net and clears away garbage more effectively than what I've seen from Harvard. The two goalies have faced exactly the same number of shots, even though Rigsby has played over 150 more minutes. Maschmeyer is just asked to do more than Rigsby is, because the forwards for the Badgers do so much defensively.

Most years I might agree that Wisconsin's schedule is tougher, but the WCHA isn't exactly loaded with snipers this year. Outside of Brianne Jenner, Harvard's ECAC opponents didn't lose forwards to the Olympics, so Maschmeyer goes against a Cornell team that is roughly equivalent to Minnesota, Clarkson that is likely a touch better offensively than UND because they have a Rattray, Babstock at Quinnipiac, and Smith for St. Lawrence. Other than McParland at UMD, there isn't much offensive pop in the rest of the WCHA this year. I'd say the two leagues are pretty close in terms of offensive potential.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

I would say WI's team D is weaker this year and was even weaker last year as well when compared to the ncaa finals teams. I've never seen the Harvard gal play, so I don't have an opinion if she is more deserving than Rigsby. Hopefully folks got to watch the 0-0 game UW played @ UND a few weeks ago that was on tv. UW was thoroughly outplayed the whole game and she was the difference. That performance was the definition of stealing a game, against some European Olympic players at that. She was awesome in the shootout as well and UW took the point for winning that 1-0.

 

[ARM]

I would say WI's team D is weaker this year and was even weaker last year as well when compared to the ncaa finals teams.

That may be, but when I saw the Badgers in October, the team D was already better than what I've seen so far from Harvard.

 

[clarksoncluck]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Did some quick stats of the comparison of Rigsby and Maschmeyer:

Both goalies have played 5 ranked teams -

Harvard has played Quinnipiac W 4 - 2
Clarkson W 2 - 0
Cornell T 3 - 3
BU W 3 - 1
BC T 1 - 1

Wisconsin has played Minn L 1 - 2
Minn L 0 - 2
BU W 5 - 0
UND T 0 - 0
UND W 3 - 1

Overall:

Maschmeyer had 175 shots on (averaged 35 shots/gm vs ranked teams), where the opposition goalies (Laden/Howe/Sperry/Slebodnick/Boyles) had 128 shots on (averaging 26 shots/gm). Net out come is 3 wins, 2 ties for Maschmeyer with save % of 96% while the opposition goalies had 3 losses and 2 ties (with a save % of 90 %). All games Maschmeyer was outshot (21/18 W, 36/19 T, 31/23 W, 35/32 W, 52/36 T) So based on just shots Maschmeyer had 3 wins 2 ties while being outshot in all games.

Rigsby had 130 shots on (averaged 26 shots/gm vs ranked teams), where the opposition goalies (Leveille/Leveille/Sperry/Benzie/Shaw) had 142 shots on(averaging 28.4 shots/game). Net outcome is 2 wins, 2 losses, 1 tie for Rigsby with a save % of 96% while the opposition goalies had the same but opposite record (with a save % of 94%). Rigsby's team outshot the opposition 3 times and lost twice (35/23 L, 27/33 L, 34/19 W, 21/34 T, 25/21 W), and was outshot twice with the outcome of a loss and a tie.

If the battle is on difference making: Maschmeyer 5 - Rigsby - 1.

Maschmeyer has never been out battled by a ranked opposition goalie this year,

Rigsby has been out battled by 2 goalies (Leveille twice, did and should have beat Sperry, out battled Benzie, and was on par to beat Shaw)

Just stats, but it would have been good to see Harvard and Wisco play each other this year and put the goalies to the test.

 

[clarksoncluck]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

I have to correct myself.

There were 2 games in which Maschmeyer's shots were close but not significantly in favour of the other team, but Harvard still won, so:

Difference making Maschmeyer 3, Rigsby 1.

 

[clarksoncluck]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

After I went through all of Harvard's games and they have only out shot 2 teams (RPI and Union), had the same shots in 1 game (Colgate), and been outshot by the rest.

Also, just a side note is that Laing has played 2 games so far and gone perfect in those 2 games. Probably puts some up pressure on Maschmeyer.

 

[ARM]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Did you do a similar analysis on Howe?

 

[john0128]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

if the FRESHMAN backup is able to play 2 full games and not give up a goal on about 60 shots doesn't that pretty much sum up how Harvard may allow a lot of non-quality shots per game? Maybe the Harvard defense is the reason that both goalies have done so well. It seems likely that although they give up more shots than Wisconsin, the majority of those are simple saves. Again it comes down to this: should the PK go to the goalie who makes all the easy saves but is rarely asked to do more? Another important question, if you put this goalie on a middle of the pack team, would they make a difference over there when they are asked to make more big saves?

It seems strange to me that goalies on middle of the pack teams will never win because no matter how well they play, they will be put in many situations where not even the best goalie would be able to make the save. Yet top end goalies rarely get put in those situations, which is a reflection of their impeccable stats and their high win percentage. If you were to give the PK to a goalie on a top 5 team, then you could just argue that the PK might as well be given to the team's defense as a whole. The reality is that it is so hard to justify giving the PK to a goalie who has solid defense in front of her because then you could just argue that any goalie who plays for that team could have done the job and gotten a similar outcome.

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

Did some quick stats of the comparison of Rigsby and Maschmeyer:

Both goalies have played 5 ranked teams -

Harvard has played Quinnipiac W 4 - 2
Clarkson W 2 - 0
Cornell T 3 - 3
BU W 3 - 1
BC T 1 - 1

Wisconsin has played Minn L 1 - 2
Minn L 0 - 2
BU W 5 - 0
UND T 0 - 0
UND W 3 - 1

How do you think each goalie/team would have done if schedules were switched?

 

[ARM]

if the FRESHMAN backup is able to play 2 full games and not give up a goal on about 60 shots doesn't that pretty much sum up how Harvard may allow a lot of non-quality shots per game? Maybe the Harvard defense is the reason that both goalies have done so well. It seems likely that although they give up more shots than Wisconsin, the majority of those are simple saves.

Laing has played against a UNH team that has struggled recently and a Colgate team that has struggled all season. I don't think it is accurate to conclude that any goalie would do well playing behind Harvard's defense. Laing is likely a great goalie as well, but I don't know, because I have yet to watch her. I'm giving props to Maschmeyer based on what I've seen when I've watched her play. Relying too heavily on stats with such a small sample size can lead to false conclusions.

 

[john0128]

Re: Patty Kaz 2014 Thread

thats a fair argument, i guess what i am trying to say is not that "any" goalie would be able to do what Mashmeyer has, but that much of her stats may be a product of the types of shots she sees. I have not yet seen her play live though, but I have seen a few highlights from Harvard's website, and it just appears that although she gets a lot of shots, there are few situations where she has had to make tough saves. But props to her for being able to do what it takes to win, that is a talent in and of itself.