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Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Depends on whether Western Michigan's officially dead. I admit that I haven't followed this at length, as I've left this to the pros.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

curious what happens in this scenario
Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Canisius
CCHA
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Championship game: Brown defeats Union
Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
Hockey East
Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston University
WCHA
Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Colorado College


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2OOlmhEK7


i get

RI
UML vs Brown
BC vs MSU

GR
Minn vs Mercy
DU vs Niagara

Tol
miami vs. yale
nodak vs nd

NH
Quinn vs Wisco
UNH vs SCSU

but it required a lot of shuffling within each band. something i'm not sure the committee will do but there are a ton of WCHA matchups otherwise in the 2/3
 
curious what happens in this scenario
Your Picks
Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats Canisius
CCHA
Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan
Championship game: Miami defeats Notre Dame
ECAC
Championship game: Brown defeats Union
Consolation game: Quinnipiac defeats Yale
Hockey East
Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston University
WCHA
Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Colorado College


Read more: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2OOlmhEK7


i get

RI
UML vs Brown
BC vs MSU

GR
Minn vs Mercy
DU vs Niagara

Tol
miami vs. yale
nodak vs nd

NH
Quinn vs Wisco
UNH vs SCSU

but it required a lot of shuffling within each band. something i'm not sure the committee will do but there are a ton of WCHA matchups otherwise in the 2/3



This is what I have Ben thinking of for all week. It's not only your scenario, but many. 4 WCHA teams in the 2 & 3 bands. I think the committee would shuffle.
 
Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

There really isn’t a “prior to the PWR”. The PWR and other statistical comparisons have been around a long time. The participants were selected by a committee then, just as they are now. The two big changes were:

1. The autobids to all the conferences and

2. The committee not deviating much, if at all, from the PWR.
That's not entirely true. Up to 1994, the committee would select the tournament using RPI, and use PWR to separate teams that had substantially similar RPI on the bubble (something like within 0.01, or within 0.005, or something like that). Subsequent to that, the committee always used pairwise comparisons, but I believe there was a period where they were more inclined to do mini-PWR in the area of the bubble, so it could be more valuable to win PWCs against bubble teams if a team was, itself, on the bubble.


One other thing that’s true, but I’m sure won’t make you happy. The PWR is not designed to be applied before all games have been played. The fact that it can leads to all these “lose by winning” scenarios or one team’s fate being decided by “the TUC cliff”.
This argument is and always has been purest bull****. That PWR is highly unstable due to the TUCliff (tm) is a fact, that it is a serious flaw in PWR is a fact, and it is a fact that teams can be better off losing due to the TUCliff. It happened as recently as 2008, when ND would have been out with a consolation game tie against NMU but were in with a loss.
 
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Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Notre Dame's scenarios:

Making the tournament
There are still 10 outcomes where we miss the tournament.

They require:
Miami wins the CCHA
BU wins Hockey East
CC beats Wisconsin

Any ECAC outcome can leave us out, but they're not evenly divided so some combinations could work out.


#1 Seed Scenarios
If we beat Michigan to win the CCHA, we get a #1 seed.

If we beat Miami, there are still two scenarios where we get a #1 seed by beating the RedHawks:
Canisius wins AHA
Union wins ECAC
QU wins or ties the ECAC consolation game
BU wins Hockey East
Wisconsin wins the WCHA
 
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