Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

4:45 Central time. Wisconsin won, Niagara, Quinn, and Lowell all trail.

I suppose you call this "chaos"!!

 

[RHamilton]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Updated predictions/odds given the current results (following Wisconsin's defeat of SCSU) here:
http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/

And the two tools now have WCHA Semi #2 disabled (I called it semi #2 before I looked at the schedule, it was apparently semi #1, whatever ).

• KRACH weighted PWR Predictor / Odds: http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/query.php - to see who is in/out and what seeding possibilities remain
• Game-by-Game Outcome Summarizer: http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/query2.php - to see how a particular seed can be achieved

 

[cF[Authentic]]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

If the Brown/QU and Canisius/Niagara scores hold then the first five conference tourney games all go to the underdogs. Not good for bubble teams.

 

[Craig P.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does the outcomes tool take autobids into account? That is, can I get tournament participation just by asking for seed better than 16, or do I need to consider cases where there are fewer at-large bids and a seed of 14, 15, or 16 would be left out?

 

[RHamilton]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Does the outcomes tool take autobids into account? That is, can I get tournament participation just by asking for seed better than 16, or do I need to consider cases where there are fewer at-large bids and a seed of 14, 15, or 16 would be left out?

Yes, all seeds are final, post auto-bid. If Mercyhurst wins the AHA they will receive seed #16, and whoever had #16 by PWR will be assigned #17 in that tool.

 

[J.D.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Priceless, on this topic, I still don't think Tom Caron knows the PWR exists.

 

[Priceless]

Priceless, on this topic, I still don't think Tom Caron knows the PWR exists.

I'll have to ask Jamison to educate him.

 

[J.D.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is there still a chance for Robert Morris to make it?

 

[RHamilton]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Robert Morris was out with the Canisius victory. Their only shot was as a #16 seed with no auto-bids sneaking in.

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Well, of all the craziness.....
Thanks for the query2 tool, ReillyHamilton. Using it, I found this: Right now, with the Prov/Lowell game still going on, I think I have it right that ANY conference championship for Mich, BU/Prov or Wisc spoils RPI's chances. And, in fact, it seems there is no chance for RPI if so much as Prov holds on to win. Thus RPI is truly on the bubble right now.


And, my attempt at some forethought about the actual bracket has gone south, since UNH is more likely to be a #2 now, with Niagara having lost.

 

[QUAlum2004]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Is there still a chance for Robert Morris to make it?

I doubt it especially with all the upsets in the playoffs so far. AHA is likely a 2 bid league now.

 

[Chuck Schwartz]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Can someone smarter than I give an update on Wisconsin. Obviously win and in tomorrow, but if they lose?

 

[Craig P.]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Can someone smarter than I give an update on Wisconsin. Obviously win and in tomorrow, but if they lose?

There are 46 scenarios where Wisconsin loses to Minnesota and makes the tournament, and six where Wisconsin loses to CC and makes the tournament. You'll have to play with RHamilton's tool yourself to break those cases down.

 

[A Shot and a Goal]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

How about Wayne State?

 

[ATelly33]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

Anyone know what SCSU's current scenarios are? Would a MN loss tonight damage their chances or not matter?

 

[Priceless]

Looks like the parley just might come in after all. An upset winner from the AHA, Union and Brown in the ECAC and Wisconsin and CC in the WCHA. Only Hockey East has seen the favorites win, with Lowell taking care of Providence and BC leading BU 2-0 so far.

With a red-hot Michigan team primed to steal a spot, the bubble is bursting for a lot of teams.

 

[Umileated]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

You'll have to play with RHamilton's tool yourself to break those cases down.

Is there a way for us to rename the thread?

 

[streeter]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

I think the attendance out west is going to suck anyway no matter who makes the tournament. I also expect the NCAA to do whatever it can (within reason) to boost attendance. The NCAA is hoping against hope that Minnesota and Michigan (and maybe Wisconsin) have a great second half and they can stick them in Grand Rapids.

IT would help if the NCAA lowered the prices but they are not in great hockey cities to begin with....

 

[Numbers]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

So, St Cloud has about a 3/4 chance now, and I can't really tell from the programs available here exactly which results would be guarantees for them.

If they make it, there will be 6 WCHA teams. Apparently (RHamilton), Wisconsin can't qualify if they lose tomorrow.

And, Western Michigan is on the bubble like this: Miami has to win CCHA over Ohio State. Anything else doesn't seem to matter. At least, that's what I think.

I also think the committee will be disappointed if WMU does not qualify.

 

[streeter]

Re: Pairwise and Bracketology 2013 Edition

The BCS... the NCAA BBALL selection the PWR is college hockey... are these the best systems we can really come up with for college sports... uhhhggg my heads about to explode...