PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

[robertearle]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Per the people who have run the scenarios, "No; yes."

For the heck of it, I threw a bunch of outcomes into Grant's tool, and got Bemidji to #7 first try.

Picks were: BC in two, Providence in two, BU in two, UCONN in two, BC and BU, BC; Wisconsin in two, Minn in two, Bemidji in two, St Cloud in two, Bemidji and Wisconsin, Wisconsin; Quinn in two, Clarkson in two, St Lawrence in two, Colgate in two, Clarkson and Quinn, Quinn; RIT in two, Lindenwood in two, Syracuse and Mercyhurst, Syracuse.

The tool says that puts Princeton at 6, Bemidji at 7, and Northeastern at home.

(Adding: change 'Providence in two' to 'Northeastern in three', with Northeastern then losing in the semis, and Bemidji beats out Northeastern .5770 to .5769 )

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Per the people who have run the scenarios, "No; yes."

Well, that's about as concise as it can be made! Thanks. Were the scenarios discussed somewhere on the board? I actually checked the Polls and Rankings thread before posting. Unless I completely brain cramped, I didn't see such definitive answers.

EDIT: Pairwise Calculator; got it.

Bemidji would not be #8, because they would be ahead of the CHA team, but it is academic as you say, because the geography rule kicks in.

Yeah, I realized that as I was submitting the reply. Since it was a fantasy scenario, I decided just to go with it, even with that little bit of fudging involved. Specifically, I wanted to state my belief that Bemidji would give BC a stiff challenge; that it would be a great series. I do understand that it isn't happening, for multiple reasons.

Thanks to both you and Millsy for the replies.

 

[ARM]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

(Adding: change 'Providence in two' to 'Northeastern in three', with Northeastern then losing in the semis, and Bemidji beats out Northeastern .5770 to .5769 )

That's a more likely outcome than "Providence in two".

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

For the heck of it, I threw a bunch of outcomes into Grant's tool, and got Bemidji to #7 first try.

Picks were: BC in two, Providence in two, BU in two, UCONN in two, BC and BU, BC; Wisconsin in two, Minn in two, Bemidji in two, St Cloud in two, Bemidji and Wisconsin, Wisconsin; Quinn in two, Clarkson in two, St Lawrence in two, Colgate in two, Clarkson and Quinn, Quinn; RIT in two, Lindenwood in two, Syracuse and Mercyhurst, Syracuse.

The tool says that puts Princeton at 6, Bemidji at 7, and Northeastern at home.

(Adding: change 'Providence in two' to 'Northeastern in three', with Northeastern then losing in the semis, and Bemidji beats out Northeastern .5770 to .5769 )

I input similar results and got them both to be .5772 with NU winning the comparison by rounding at a difference of 0.00005 Changing one result (Lindenwood in 1 instead of Bobby Mo in 3) put BSU in and NU out.

So it looks like if BSU can beat the Gophers they have a reasonable chance of eeking in if NU loses two games and does not make it to the HEA final. Not that NU losing two games is particularly likely. Based on BC's results over PC this weekend, the Friars are Bad.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

So it looks like if BSU can beat the Gophers they have a reasonable chance of eeking in if NU loses two games and does not make it to the HEA final. Not that NU losing two games is particularly likely. Based on BC's results over PC this weekend, the Friars are Bad.

Perhaps even more to the point, if the Huskies are aware that they're playing for their NCAA lives, they aren't likely to be caught napping.

 

[2Bladedskates]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

I input similar results and got them both to be .5772 with NU winning the comparison by rounding at a difference of 0.00005 Changing one result (Lindenwood in 1 instead of Bobby Mo in 3) put BSU in and NU out.

So it looks like if BSU can beat the Gophers they have a reasonable chance of eeking in if NU loses two games and does not make it to the HEA final. Not that NU losing two games is particularly likely. Based on BC's results over PC this weekend, the Friars are Bad.

I should have paid closer attention in stats class. I just thought that if you beat everyone but two national powers you had a chance? Next year I am getting a fancy calculator.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

All this discussion points to the fact that if you want to be in the tourney, just win. Every team controls their own destiny as far as their talent will take them over the course of the season. As much as I think BSU could go further than NE, their body of work will not allow it at this point.

 

[ARM]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

All this discussion points to the fact that if you want to be in the tourney, just win.

What the BSU versus Northeastern comparison highlights is that it is more difficult to just win when sharing a league with two power teams rather than one. Different computer rankings sort these two teams out differently. For example, the Beavers are fifth in Rutter, sixth in KRACH, and eighth in the only ranking that matters. The PairWise isn't alone in not being all that impressed by Bemidji State, because WCHODR places it 10th. Where the latter diverges from PairWise is it has the top three in the order Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Boston College third.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

What the BSU versus Northeastern comparison highlights is that it is more difficult to just win when sharing a league with two power teams rather than one. Different computer rankings sort these two teams out differently. For example, the Beavers are fifth in Rutter, sixth in KRACH, and eighth in the only ranking that matters. The PairWise isn't alone in not being all that impressed by Bemidji State, because WCHODR places it 10th. Where the latter diverges from PairWise is it has the top three in the order Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Boston College third.

My simple brain cannot comprehend how mathematical calculations can end up with such a variable ending, with BSU ranging from 5th to 10th. Had BSU beat UM or UW once this year, would they be in?

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Had BSU beat UM or UW once this year, would they be in?

If Bemidji had won one of the games against UM that they lost (say they scored in OT against the Gophers instead of the other way around), this would be your top 8:

1) BC .7516
2) UW .6609
3) UM .6468
4) QU .6280
5) CU .6208
6) NU .5887
7) PU .5855
8) BSU .5828

Those bottom 3 are in a dead heat in this scenario, so while BSU would technically be out at the moment, the team that misses the NCAA tournament would basically be determined by who did the worst in their conference tournament -- as opposed to Bemidji being effectively SOL like they are right now.

 

[wwhyte]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

What the BSU versus Northeastern comparison highlights is that it is more difficult to just win when sharing a league with two power teams rather than one.

Also when you play those teams four times each rather than three.

 

[NUWH DogHouse]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Also when you play those teams four times each rather than three.

We played bc 4 times this year as we do most years.

 

[pokechecker]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

We played bc 4 times this year as we do most years.

which other top 3 team did you play 4 times?

and in another week it will be 5 times

 

[wwhyte]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

We played bc 4 times this year as we do most years.

Right, but my point was that in the WCHA with two very strong teams, the fact that everyone plays everyone four times makes it very difficult for the lower teams. Contrast with Hockey East, where everyone plays everyone three times, or ECAC, where everyone plays everyone twice (or CHA, where there are no very strong teams ). The damage done to the lower-placed teams in those other conferences simply isn't as great. Maybe the lower ranked WCHA teams should be lobbying for three in-conference games a year rather than four and eight more OOCs?

 

[ARM]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Maybe the lower ranked WCHA teams should be lobbying for three in-conference games a year rather than four and eight more OOCs?

That isn't practical with the greater travel distances. Columbus, Ohio is a long way to go for one game.

 

[wwhyte]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

That isn't practical with the greater travel distances. Columbus, Ohio is a long way to go for one game.

I know, I was being a bit facetious. If travel was free, though, I'd love to see this.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Maybe the lower ranked WCHA teams should be lobbying for three in-conference games a year rather than four and eight more OOCs?

Except that you'd lose more than you'd gain with this "cure." The tradition of the two game series goes back generations in the West. In the Women's WCHA, it's been in use since Day 1. For those of us who don't usually travel -- meaning most -- you get a much better sense of the opposing teams when you see a pair of games. Even more importantly, having all 8 teams play the exact same schedule makes for a much fairer conference race.

That isn't practical with the greater travel distances. Columbus, Ohio is a long way to go for one game.

Certainly not disagreeing with the thrust of your comment, but wwhyte is correct that cost is more of a culprit than distance. CMH to MSP is an easy non-stop flight; less than two hours. Compare with a five hour bus trip to State College, Pa. Minnesota is the easier trip in terms of energy, lost study time and so on.

I know, I was being a bit facetious. If travel was free, though, I'd love to see this.

In the abstract, all of us would like to see more non-conference play. But the current WCHA schedule is a great asset that should be preserved if at all possible.

Circling back to the original problem: In this particular year, it does bother me that Bemidji is likely to be left out of the field of eight. But in most other years, the "near miss" teams aren't a huge threat to make the FF, much less win a national title. Worse, the NCAA tournament's horrible travel policy almost guarantees an intra-conference rematch in the first round, should Bemidji somehow qualify. Give up the current WCHA schedule for such results? I'd respectfully decline.

 

[FredsDeadFriend]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

The answer is friggin simple, you are all making this WAY TOO COMPLEX. There is no need to change the conf scedule from 4 games vs each conf member to 3 or anything like that. Just scrap the idiotic Pairwise Rating based almost completely on the even more idiotic RPI rating.


Check out BSU's and even UND's ratings in the Krach rating or in Massey's Rating. Both have BSU in 6th and UND at #9, I believe, or at least the last time I checked.



Teams like BSU shouldn't be punished for having such a tough scedule, while team's like NE are rewarded for playing such a creampuff scedule.


But they are. And like so often happens, the field of 8 will be a majority of eastern teams, but more than likely a Western team will still win the Title. Because the best hockey is played in the West.


The NCAA could put up the best 7 eastern teams vs either Minnesota or Wisconsin, and a WCHA team would probably still win the Natl Title. Has there EVER been a year when there wasn't more eastern teams in the tourney than western teams? Yet how many Titles has the east won?



But I'm not complaining, its better for Minnesota if BSU and UND are not in the tourney. I'm loving the idea that the tourney will be 6 eastern teams vs Minny and Wisconsin. lol I just pray that somehow UMn and Wisconsin don't have to play before the Final. Maybe UND can upset Wisconsin in the Semis of the Conf tourney and UW can drop down to 4th in the PWR? lol I doubt that is possible, but thats what I'm hoping for.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

like so often happens, the field of 8 will be a majority of eastern teams...Has there EVER been a year when there wasn't more eastern teams in the tourney than western teams?

There are a lot more eastern teams than there are western teams

#maths

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: PAIR WISE has Bemidji on the outside looking in

Maybe UND can upset Wisconsin in the Semis of the Conf tourney and UW can drop down to 4th in the PWR? lol I doubt that is possible, but thats what I'm hoping for.

http://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...minnesota-wisconsin-boston-college-quinnipiac