Re: Oswego state hockey 2017-18 - green, gold and teal - it's not business, its perso
Spent most of the night figuring out SUNYAC scenarios for the regular season crown and seedings. There's a lot to unpack here, so read carefully.
Oswego has set itself up very nicely. With 8 SUNYAC games remaining (They had the two Canton games in the beginning of the season, now have 2 extra conference games)
Current top 3
1. Geneseo - 16 pts (7-2-2)
2. Oswego - 15 its (7-0-1)
3. Buff St - 14 its (6-2-2)
For Oswego to win the SUNYAC Regular Season Crown...
Scenario 1: Get at least 27 points (Buffalo State & Geneseo can’t get more than 26)
Oswego would need to go, in their final 8 games, EITHER 6-2-0 (13-2-1 overall) OR 5-1-2 (12–1-3 overall)
Scenario 2: Get to 26 points
Finish either 5-2-1 (12-2-2) or 5-0-3 (12-0-3)
They win SUNYAC if they finish with these records and defeat/tie Buffalo State and Geneseo. Even if they tie both teams in points by the end of the season, as long as they have a better record against the team, they have the nod.
These are the simplest scenarios.
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For Geneseo to finish in front of Oswego by the end of the semester, they would:
Go 5-0 in conference play to make their SUNYAC record (12-2-2, 26 points)
…and Oswego at best…
Would have to finish 5-2-1 (12-2-2, 26 points) and lose to Buffalo State
OR
Geneseo goes 4-1 (11-3-2 [24 points]) and Oswego goes 4-3-1 at best (11-3-2 [24 points]) while losing to Buffalo State
OR (Last likely scenarios)
Geneseo goes 3-1-1 (10-3-3 [23 points]) and Oswego goes 3-3-2/4-4-0 at best (10-3-3/11-3-1 [23 points]) and loses to Buffalo State
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For Buffalo State finish in front of Oswego by the end of the semester, they would (Realistic scenarios):
Need to go 6-0 in conference play to make their conference record 12-2-2 (26 points)
…and Oswego would have to either…
Go 5-2-1 (finish 12-2-2 - 26 points), while losing to both Geneseo AND Fredonia (Would lose tiebreaker)
OR
Go 5-3 (Finish 12-3-1, 25 points)
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Final point is, Oswego controls its own destiny by getting at least 12 points in its final 8 games. Even if they get 10/11 points in 8 games, they would be in a favorable situation, EVEN if Buffalo State and Geneseo finish perfect. The road to the #1 seed begins tonight.