Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Last night was a rout. Give Bemidji State a lot of credit for coming out and earning a tie with the 5th-ranked Buckeyes earlier today. The Buckeyes opened the scoring in the first period on a goal by Jincy Dunne and led 1-0 at the end of the first period. The Beavers answered in the second period on a goal from Clair DeGeorge and the teams went into the second intermission tied at 1. Ohio State's Emma Maltais lit the lamp on a PP goal with 5:20 to play in the game to put Ohio State up 2-1, but the Beavers were not done yet. Bemidji State pulled goaltender Lauren Bench and got a game-tying goal from Kiki Radke with just 17 seconds left in the game to send it into OT. Neither team could score in the extra frame or the second OT (3-on-3), so the game went to a shootout where Ohio State's Emma Maltais scored to give the Buckeyes the extra standings point in the WCHA. Ohio State outshot the Beavers 43-25 in this one. Bemidji backstop Lauren Bench saved 41 of the 43 shots she faced. Lynsey Wallace got another start for the Buckeyes and saved 23 of the 25 shots she faced. Bemidji will return home next weekend to host Minnesota. The Buckeyes will go on the road to face Minnesota-Duluth next weekend.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Final Score From Saturday, February 1st
Ohio State 2
Bemidji State 2
(OSU Earns The Extra Standings Point With The 1-0 Shootout Win)

Big Bemidji Bounceback; Beavers Bag Standings Point​

I went to the OSU Ice Rink Friday evening expecting a closely contested hockey game. A cakewalk broke out. I returned Saturday hoping for another slice. An intense hockey game broke out.

How to describe the game? Impressive but sometimes flawed. Exhilarating but occasionally aggravating. Brilliant playmaking; high quality chances. But so many near misses. I was tempted to give a Star to the pipes on the Bemidji goal cage. Tatum Skaggs, I shared your pain. And I do believe the right post on the Bemidji net should be checked for structural damage.

But make no mistake. Bemidji played really well today, and would have won by making just one more play. It was a competitive, fun game with a little bit of everything. The Beavers leave town with their heads held high.

Three Stars Of The Game: Decidedly Unofficial & Just For Fun​

Bemidji State Honorable Mention: Lauren Bench
Perhaps the biggest bounceback of all came from Lauren. After the costly miscue on Friday, she played brilliantly on Saturday, making one big save after another. She wasn't beaten on a first shot all night long, until the very end of the Shootout. OK, Bench was still a little too adventuresome for my taste. (Trust your 'D' to do their jobs; they're good.) And yes, she had a little help from a goalie's best friends. But the positives dwarfed the negatives.


Ohio State Honorable Mention: Jincy Dunne
With all of the offense Jincy creates, she was a little overdue for another goal. It was great to see her open the scoring tonight. Sophie Jaques created the opportunity by putting a stiff shot on goal. Dunne slammed the rebound home with authority.



#3 Star: Kiki Radke, Bemidji State
Extra Attacker Goals: Always Special. Kiki's goal with 18 seconds left in regulation earned the standings point for Bemidji. Mak Langei intercepted a Buckeye clearing attempt, and fired the puck to Radke. Kiki absolutely drilled the upper right hand corner of the Buckeye net.


#2 Star: Lynsey Wallace, Ohio State
Lydia Passolt beat Wallace twice on Friday. Saturday was Lynsey's revenge, as she stopped Lydia on two uncontested rushes.

The first came at 15:18 of the 3rd Period. It appeared that Passolt wanted to go to her backhand. Either way, she was aiming for the left side of the net. But Wallace got her leg pad to the left post first. The flustered Passolt didn't get off a good shot.

The second was the final save of the Shootout. This time Lydia choose glove side, and got off a solid shot. But Lynsey made a calm glove save, giving her team a chance to win. Which, come to think of it, nicely symbolizes Wallace's performance.


#1 Star: Emma Maltais, Ohio State
So many Buckeye scoring chances, so few conversions. I've given Emma the top spot quite a few times. Although I like to spread the wealth round, I've gotta go with Maltais again. Finishing touch was the precious commodity in this one, and Emma delivered twice.

The first goal came 28 seconds into the only Buckeye Power Play of the day. Tatum Skaggs had the single assist. It might have been the GWG. Ultimately it proved to be worth 1 standings point.

The second tally won the Shootout. Approaching the net with more than a little moxie, Maltais put on a nifty little move and beat the Bemidji keeper through the 5 hole. 2nd standings point secured!



Up Next: Road Trip To Duluth To Take On The Bulldogs.

 

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Both games vs. UMD this weekend are being streamed on FloHockey.com. Should be a couple of good ones. Both start at 3:00CT.

https://www.flohockey.tv/events/6553526-2020-ohio-state-vs-minnesota-duluth-wcha-womens-hockey

https://www.flohockey.tv/events/6553532-2020-ohio-state-vs-minnesota-duluth-wcha-womens-hockey

 

[osualum86]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

The Buckeyes took it on the chin according to Coach Muzerall, and it was costly in the PairWise as the Buckeyes dropped to 6th in the PairWise rankings after the 5-4 loss to Minnesota-Duluth in OT. Tomorrow's game now becomes a must-win game for Ohio State if they don't want to slip another spot (or more) in the PairWise rankings. Kylie Hanley opened the scoring for the Bulldogs as they took a 1-0 lead. The Bucks answered with goals from Tatum Skaggs and Emma Maltais to take a 2-1 lead. Gabbie Hughes scored for Duluth to tie it at 2 heading into the first intermission. McKenzie Hewett scored for UMD in the second period to put the Bulldogs up 3-2. Ohio State answered when Liz Schepers lit the lamp to tie it at 3. Anna Klein scored for the Bulldogs to put them back up 4-3 and that's how the second period ended. Ohio State's Tatum Skaggs scored the only goal of the third period to tie the game at 4 and send it into overtime. Duluth's Anna Klein scored in the overtime period to win it for the Bulldogs. The Buckeyes outshot UMD 45-30. UMD goaltender Maddie Rooney stopped 41 of the 45 shots she faced to get the win. For the Buckeyes, Andrea Braendli and Lynsey Wallace combined to stop 25 of the 30 shots they faced. The two teams are back at it tomorrow with game time at 4:07 pm EST.

 

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

The Buckeyes took it on the chin according to Coach Muzerall, and it was costly in the PairWise as the Buckeyes dropped to 6th in the PairWise rankings after the 5-4 loss to Minnesota-Duluth in OT. Tomorrow's game now becomes a must-win game for Ohio State if they don't want to slip another spot (or more) in the PairWise rankings. Kylie Hanley opened the scoring for the Bulldogs as they took a 1-0 lead. The Bucks answered with goals from Tatum Skaggs and Emma Maltais to take a 2-1 lead. Gabbie Hughes scored for Duluth to tie it at 2 heading into the first intermission. McKenzie Hewett scored for UMD in the second period to put the Bulldogs up 3-2. Ohio State answered when Liz Schepers lit the lamp to tie it at 3. Anna Klein scored for the Bulldogs to put them back up 4-3 and that's how the second period ended. Ohio State's Tatum Skaggs scored the only goal of the third period to tie the game at 4 and send it into overtime. Duluth's Anna Klein scored in the overtime period to win it for the Bulldogs. The Buckeyes outshot UMD 45-30. UMD goaltender Maddie Rooney stopped 41 of the 45 shots she faced to get the win. For the Buckeyes, Andrea Braendli and Lynsey Wallace combined to stop 25 of the 30 shots they faced. The two teams are back at it tomorrow with game time at 4:07 pm EST.

I had a feeling this matchup was going to be very closely contested, and by gosh I happened to be right. It was one of those hockey games that could have easily gone either way. I thought both teams played very well, in all three zones. Both were organized and effective on the attack, as well as breaking out of their D-zone.

I would add, however, that even though the Buckeyes had a substantial edge in overall shots, in quality scoring chances it was much more even. And despite making a dozen or so excellent saves, I thought Rooney gave up two goals that she would ordinarily routinely stop.

It should be a very entertaining rematch.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

T Andrea Braendli and Lynsey Wallace combined to stop 25 of the 30 shots they faced. The two teams are back at it tomorrow with game time at 4:07 pm EST.

I'm curious why there was a goalie change?

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Tomorrow's game now becomes a must-win game for Ohio State if they don't want to slip another spot (or more) in the PairWise rankings.

OSU's RPI lead on Clarkson is such that another loss today would just about certainly not be enough for Clarkson to pass them, and 'win' the OSU-Clarkson comparison. A loss to Duluth would give them a "plus 1" on head-to-head for the season. But Grant's pairwise calculator app shows that OSU still has a fairly comfortable lead in 'Common Opponents'; so that pair comparison again would be decided on RPI, and again OSU's lead is too large to disappear with one more loss.

Certainly lots more hockey to play, but right now OSU looks like it will settle in to #5 or #6 along with Princeton.

(The Princeton-OSU pairing does have a 'head-to-head' component, but that was a two game split, meaning it is as if there was/is no head-to-head to consider, and the pair again will be decoded by RPI.)

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Home For The Playoffs:
Nothing more than a silver lining on this particular morning, but the Buckeyes have clinched home ice for the first round of the WCHA Playoffs.

Credit goes to the Gophers for beating Bemidji. 5th Place Bemidji remains 10 standings points behind the Buckeyes. With only three regular season games left, 9 points is the maximum the Beavers can earn. As such, OSU can finish no lower than 4th. Obviously the five points earned last weekend were very helpful in this regard.

Buckeye Fans: Plan to be at the Ice Rink on February 28-29. Plus March 1st if necessary.


Pairwise Considerations:

OSU's RPI lead on Clarkson is such that another loss today would just about certainly not be enough for Clarkson to pass them, and 'win' the OSU-Clarkson comparison. A loss to Duluth would give them a "plus 1" on head-to-head for the season. But Grant's pairwise calculator app shows that OSU still has a fairly comfortable lead in 'Common Opponents'; so that pair comparison again would be decided on RPI, and again OSU's lead is too large to disappear with one more loss.

Certainly lots more hockey to play, but right now OSU looks like it will settle in to #5 or #6 along with Princeton.

(The Princeton-OSU pairing does have a 'head-to-head' component, but that was a two game split, meaning it is as if there was/is no head-to-head to consider, and the pair again will be decoded by RPI.)

Greatly appreciate the analysis. As always.

In the spirit of talking '86 off the ledge, my guess is that #5 vs. #6 may literally make no difference, given the ongoing obsession with limiting travel expenses in the NCAA tournament.

Question: Does UMD have a realistic shot of catching OSU in the Pairwise? I realize that the Badgers play both teams in the weekends immediately ahead, thus putting your objectivity to a test.

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Question: Does UMD have a realistic shot of catching OSU in the Pairwise? I realize that the Badgers play both teams in the weekends immediately ahead, thus putting your objectivity to a test.

Remember, three components to a Pairwise comparison: head-to-head, Common Opponents, and RPI

Head-to-Head: whoever wins today with be "plus 1"; a tie today wold put this at even. There is also the possibility of another head-to-head in the WCHA, but the 'likely' assumption is because OSU and UMD will be on opposite sides of 'the bracket', another head-to-head is unlikely. If it were to happen, and the same team were to win that one as well, being "plus 2" can overcome a lot in the other two categories.

Common Opponents: Right now, OSU has a significant lead here. Other than the Wisconsin series and WCHA playoff games, UMD has only a series against Mankato, and already has a "100%" winning percentage against Mankato. So winning those two will not improve their score here. Likewise, OSU and their St Cloud series; already 100%, wins cannot improve their score. Loses, of course, would decrease the scores some. So, if OSU were to get swept by St Cloud while UMD swept Wisconsin, this category would get much closer, but OSU would still have a lead going into WCHA tournament. Assuming that doesn't happen, it is hard to see UMD catching OSU here.

So, a tie today (and assuming no head-to-head at the WCHA final) and the comparison devolves to 'who has the better RPI?' A Duluth win today likely gets cancelled out by an OSU win in 'common opponents', and the comparison devolves to 'who has the better RPI?' And the OSU lead in RPI would be hard to overcome, unless some fairly unlikely things happen (eg. Wisconsin sweeps OSU and then gets swept by Duluth).

Lots of unknowns still in there, but it looks pretty unlikely to me that UDM catches OSU.

(Wisconsin has an interest in seeing it turn out that way; if Duluth gets to #7 in the Pairwise, they come to Madison for the first round of the NCAAs, instead of the CHA winner. We're rather have the CHA team, thank you.)

Adding: by 'catch' here, I mean win the pair comparison. That would only mean Ohio State would have one fewer pair win, and drop to a tie with Clarkson, while Duluth would have an extra' pair win and go up into a tie with OSU and Clarkson. And the tiebreaker there is, of course, RPI.

 

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

As for seeding, once OSU gets into the NCAA tournament, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that you're coming to Minneapolis for the quarterfinal.

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

As for seeding, once OSU gets into the NCAA tournament, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that you're coming to Minneapolis for the quarterfinal.

Why do you say that? Columbus to Minneapolis is certainly not 'driveable'.

 

[Still Eeyore]

Why do you say that? Columbus to Minneapolis is certainly not 'driveable'.

But Princeton to Boston is.

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

But Princeton to Boston is.

Well, one way to scramble everything is Duluth sneaks into #7, and drives to Madison (or Minneapolis). Than leaves the CHA winner open to fly to Cornell, or Minneapolis, or Boston...

 

[FiveHoleFrenzy]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

UMD is doing their part. Just went final today 4-1 win over Ohio State and a weekend sweep. Too bad Ohio State didn't look at those Maroon and Gold uniforms and pretend they were playing the Gophers.

 

[Puckdrop14]

UMD is doing their part. Just went final today 4-1 win over Ohio State and a weekend sweep. Too bad Ohio State didn't look at those Maroon and Gold uniforms and pretend they were playing the Gophers.

Big, big sweep for UMD. Looks like Rooney has something to do with the results.

 

[D2D]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Big, big sweep for UMD. Looks like Rooney has something to do with the results.

As she very much did in shutting out the Gophers last Saturday. 35 shots, no goals. Sure is nice to have a hot goaltender this time of year.

 

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Big, big sweep for UMD. Looks like Rooney has something to do with the results.

She appears to be over the post-Olympic hangover.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Well, one way to scramble everything is Duluth sneaks into #7, and drives to Madison (or Minneapolis).

Given the last two weekends, it also wouldn't be a total shock if UMD gets into the field by winning the Final Face-off.

Than leaves the CHA winner open to fly to Cornell, or Minneapolis, or Boston...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't 5 of the 6 CHA teams eligible to drive to Ithaca, NY? (The obvious exception being Lindenwood) The Committee might find that combination tempting.

Obviously some potential pairings are more probable than others. But for the above reasons, I don't see any pairings that are "foregone conclusions" at this point.

 

[Still Eeyore]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

Obviously some potential pairings are more probable than others. But for the above reasons, I don't see any pairings that are "foregone conclusions" at this point.

I see only three scenarios in which Ohio State makes the tournament and does not travel to Minneapolis:

1) Minnesota somehow finishes with a higher seed than Wisconsin, in which case you'll go to Madison;
2) Lindenwood wins the CHA tournament, UMD gets into the NCAA tournament, and neither Northeastern nor Cornell get the #1 seed. In this case, the higher seeded of Minnesota and Wisconsin would get Lindenwood, the other would get UMD, and OSU goes east;
3) Minnesota drops far enough not to host a quarterfinal.

I don't think any of those scenarios have more than a small probabiliy.

 

[robertearle]

Re: Ohio State Buckeyes 2019-2020: Muzzling All Detractors

I see only three scenarios in which Ohio State makes the tournament and does not travel to Minneapolis:

1) Minnesota somehow finishes with a higher seed than Wisconsin, in which case you'll go to Madison;
2) Lindenwood wins the CHA tournament, UMD gets into the NCAA tournament, and neither Northeastern nor Cornell get the #1 seed. In this case, the higher seeded of Minnesota and Wisconsin would get Lindenwood, the other would get UMD, and OSU goes east;
3) Minnesota drops far enough not to host a quarterfinal.

I don't think any of those scenarios have more than a small probabiliy.

Let's say Wisconsin #1, Minnesota #3, and Duluth #7: why do you think it would be more likely they send Duluth to Madison and not Ninneapolis?