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Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

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Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

and I'll raise...

http://spectator.org/archives/2010/04/26/what-lies-beneath

Obama admin sits on a report related to health care costs the week of the Obamacare passage.

I'll say it again... Obama ran probably the most cynical campaign in this nation's history. I mean, he touted his openness... and then has been basically anything but... except when to showcase... and even then that wasn't open.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

I'll take both until the national debt is zero.
That would ever happen. The debt is far too large for taxes to pay it off. The government will likely try to inflate it away, or maybe even ultimately go into default (BK).

For taxes to even start making a dent in reducing the debt, it would mean running surpluses and using the surplus towards debt pay down. We don't exactly have a good track record of running surpluses. And you really don't believe that most of the revenue from tax increases is going to go towards reducing debt instead of increased government spending do you?
 
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Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

and I'll raise...

http://spectator.org/archives/2010/04/26/what-lies-beneath

Obama admin sits on a report related to health care costs the week of the Obamacare passage.

I'll say it again... Obama ran probably the most cynical campaign in this nation's history. I mean, he touted his openness... and then has been basically anything but... except when to showcase... and even then that wasn't open.
Strange, there's no mention of the Obama admin holding that report hostage, Yahoo, MSNBC don't make any mention of it, and oh snap it's not true from ABC.

Oops.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

That would ever happen. The debt is far too large for taxes to pay it off. The government will likely try to inflate it away, or maybe even ultimately go into default (BK).

For taxes to even start making a dent in reducing the debt, it would mean running surpluses and using the surplus towards debt pay down. We don't exactly have a good track record of running surpluses. And you really don't believe that revenue from tax increases is going to go towards reducing debt instead of increased government spending do you?

I'd like to see them do a freeze on spending at Year 0 levels, and then let inflation and economic expansion raise revenue until it greatly exceeds spending. Of course the minute anybody suggests everyone play by the same rules all the interest groups will scream that it's the end of the world unless they're excluded. Can you imagine what The Usual Suspects would say if we froze the entire defense budget, no exceptions, no sneaks, for, say, ten years? Oh sweet Jesus the horror of the "hollow army" -- we might only account for 33% of the world's military spending by the end of it.

{We should tabulate everything everybody gets as a benefit and say "for every $1 of your benefits you give up, we'll also cut $1 of benefits that don't apply to you."

You can eliminate my wasteful spending if I can eliminate yours. :) }

Math exercise for somebody with the data and time: take the last "normal" (pre-crash, let's say, I dunno, 2007) revenue and expenses. Freeze all new spending at that baseline (you have to factor in all the existing commitments, so spending will still continue to rise for a long time, just not as fast as it would). Assume the economy grows at the average rate of the last 20 years. Compute future revenue against that base economy. Once you reach a balanced budget, every dollar of surplus goes to debt relief.

How long does it take to get to a balanced budget? (My guess: 12 years, mostly because of the explosion of commitments as the Boomers retire)

How long does it take to get to zero national debt? (My guess: 30 years)

Congress would of course never have the discipline to hold to a 30-year policy of fiscal responsibility unless we were taken over by Martians who didn't give us a choice, not only because Congress is lazy and stupid but because voters are even worse. No Senator of either party who suggested the plan would lose his re-election bid because he wouldn't even survive his primary.
 
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Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

I'd like to see them do a freeze on spending at Year 0 levels, and then let inflation and economic expansion raise revenue until it greatly exceeds spending. Of course the minute anybody suggests everyone play by the same rules all the interest groups will scream that it's the end of the world unless they're excluded. Can you imagine what The Usual Suspects would say if we froze the entire defense budget, no exceptions, no sneaks, for, say, ten years? Oh sweet Jesus the horror of the "hollow army" -- we might only account for 33% of the world's military spending by the end of it.

{We should tabulate everything everybody gets as a benefit and say "for every $1 of your benefits you give up, we'll also cut $1 of benefits that don't apply to you."

You can eliminate my wasteful spending if I can eliminate yours. :) }

Math exercise for somebody with the data and time: take the last "normal" (pre-crash, let's say, I dunno, 2007) revenue and expenses. Freeze all new spending at that baseline (you have to factor in all the existing commitments, so spending will still continue to rise for a long time, just not as fast as it would). Assume the economy grows at the average rate of the last 20 years. Compute future revenue against that base economy. Once you reach a balanced budget, every dollar of surplus goes to debt relief.

How long does it take to get to a balanced budget? (My guess: 12 years, mostly because of the explosion of commitments as the Boomers retire)

How long does it take to get to zero national debt? (My guess: 30 years)

Congress would of course never have the discipline to hold to a 30-year policy of fiscal responsibility unless we were taken over by Martians who didn't give us a choice, not only because Congress is lazy and stupid but because voters are even worse. No Senator of either party who suggested the plan would lose his re-election bid because he wouldn't even survive his primary.

The current debt is what, something like $13 trillion. When you count in the unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, Medicare Prescription Drug, the figures for total debt run anywhere from about $60 trillion to over $100 trillion depending on what source you use. If you take the middle of that range, say $80 trillion and divide by the current U.S. population, roughly 309 million, that comes out to almost $260K in debt per person (man, woman and child). I just don't see the debt being paid off by taxes. Even if the unfunded liabilities magically disappeared, it's still about $42K per person. And the debt is increasing at a faster rate than the population.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

The current debt is what, something like $13 trillion. When you count in the unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, Medicare Prescription Drug, the figures for total debt run anywhere from about $60 trillion to over $100 trillion depending on what source you use. If you take the middle of that range, say $80 trillion and divide by the current U.S. population, roughly 309 million, that comes out to almost $260K in debt per person (man, woman and child). I just don't see the debt being paid off by taxes. Even if the unfunded liabilities magically disappeared, it's still about $42K per person. And the debt is increasing at a faster rate than the population.

So you're saying people need to screw like rabbits?
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

And no one is hiring now, considering that the unemployment rate has held around 9-10% even through the spring hiring season. You'd be hard-pressed to explain to the millions of unemployed Americans that Obama's economic plan has been "remarkably successful". GDP went up a couple of points, but when you consider that hiring was flat, all you're looking at is higher productivity from the same number of workers.

Here's the dirty little secret: The economy took a digger because the government got involved, not despite involvement; the abandonment of conservative principles by the Bush Administration contributed in large part to the problem. You can drone on and on about CDSs and MBSs, but the bottom line is that people defaulted on mortgages, which made everything down the line from there worthless. Fannie/Freddie continue to hemmorage cash while simultaneously being pushed by politicians to further loosen their already lax lending criteria. Granted, banks were involved in risky practices--and those practices were made possible by government regulation, not despite regulation, as Fannie/Freddie MBSs made up the majority of those types of securities.

I'm in no way defending Bush's fiscal policies--he spent too much and despite being stonewalled by Barney Frank & Co. should have pushed harder on reigning in Fannie/Freddie. In addition, Greenspan shouldn't have kept rates as low as they were for as long as they were--that action alone would have helped avert many of the foreclosures that started the downward financial spiral. Of course, the stimulus passed last year has done very little for the average American--unless they happened to be a government employee whose job was propped up for another year, or a union construction worker that found temporary work on government-funded projects (of course, those jobs are drying up as well).

Yep, everything is relative...and compared to where the economy was in the confidence crisis of January 2009, the country looks great. Remember the situation was a crisis in confidence on many levels not seen since 1929. If you put it in those terms, the fact that unemployment has ceased to decline and spending and consumer confidence are crawling back...not much more than a year later. All very impressive. The stock market (up about 70%) reflects that. Frankly, reigning of spending will be the big and final test to this episode.

On the other hand, I have no interest in seeing the financial industry punished for the acts of a few. But don't tell me that better oversight would not helped protect against the financial meltdown.

In the end, the last decade was one of failure and attempts to shift blame...which 30% of the US population believe (approximately the same 30% that supported W to the end). The GOP had a hand in alot of destruction...and they deserve to wear it. Now lets hope that a new generation of the libertarian wing can clean house...and learn to excel at solutions.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

The GOP had a hand in alot of destruction...and they deserve to wear it.

When the economy was humming along it was all "we are the party of free enterprise and we brought you this prosperity by fighting evil regulation." When it spun out of control like a speeding car on a wet road it became, "oh, there's plenty of blame to go around."

Not really. This one's on one side.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

The current debt is what, something like $13 trillion. When you count in the unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, Medicare Prescription Drug, the figures for total debt run anywhere from about $60 trillion to over $100 trillion depending on what source you use. If you take the middle of that range, say $80 trillion and divide by the current U.S. population, roughly 309 million, that comes out to almost $260K in debt per person (man, woman and child). I just don't see the debt being paid off by taxes. Even if the unfunded liabilities magically disappeared, it's still about $42K per person. And the debt is increasing at a faster rate than the population.
Sure, $260k per person sounds high, but if you figure a 40-year working career, that's $6.5k per person per year. That still sounds high, but in 40 years, $6.5k will only be worth about $2k today, so as Kepler says, it's very possible to inflate our way out of this mess - so long as we cap spending. Which, unfortunately, is really just another way of saying it's impossible. :(
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

Strange, there's no mention of the Obama admin holding that report hostage, Yahoo, MSNBC don't make any mention of it, and oh snap it's not true from ABC.

Oops.

Let me get this straight. The report was never "held hostage" they just didn't wait for the the information, right? Kind of like
“But we have to pass the bill so that you can find out what is in it"
No conspiracy, just political zeal and ineptitude
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

The current debt is what, something like $13 trillion. When you count in the unfunded liabilities like Social Security, Medicare, Medicare Prescription Drug, the figures for total debt run anywhere from about $60 trillion to over $100 trillion depending on what source you use. If you take the middle of that range, say $80 trillion and divide by the current U.S. population, roughly 309 million, that comes out to almost $260K in debt per person (man, woman and child). I just don't see the debt being paid off by taxes. Even if the unfunded liabilities magically disappeared, it's still about $42K per person. And the debt is increasing at a faster rate than the population.

I don't know anyone in my generation that's counting on social security being around when we hit retirement in 40 years. My guess is that's at least one future liability that will fall off the books at some point.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

I don't know anyone in my generation that's counting on social security being around when we hit retirement in 40 years. My guess is that's at least one future liability that will fall off the books at some point.

QFT, although I guarantee they're going to try to prop it up as long as they can.
 
Re: Obama XI: Turn And Face The Strange

I don't know anyone in my generation that's counting on social security being around when we hit retirement in 40 years. My guess is that's at least one future liability that will fall off the books at some point.

I don't think it will go away completely (nor do I think it should go away completely). However, I do think it will be means tested, which will remove the pretense that it is a retirement savings or pension plan of some type; it will be revealed in its full glory as the wealth redistribution scheme that it has always been.
 
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