BoomGoestheDynamite
Registered User
Re: Obama 7 - now what?
I imagine it will follow the interracial marriage pattern. Three will be the norm in a certain number of states, but with a significant group of holdouts. Once we reach a critical mass of states that have legalized gay marriage, SCOTUS will step in and issue the gay marriage version of Loving and complete the process.
And if I was a young GOP hopeful, I'd just keep my head down on this gay marriage issue for 2020/24. No need to put out any statements/policy papers that could crater your chance at office in the years to come.
The right to marry has always been a common law right, dating back to the law we brought over from England. The legal issue presently is "does the right to marry include the right to marry a person of the same gender?" - because the common law did not address that issue.
And frankly, the GOP would be better off focusing their efforts elsewhere, because they are going to lose on this one in the end (though, if their sole objective is to delay to force the Dems to waste money on it in the meantime, I guess that's a somewhat logical strategy).
One of three things will happen: 1)SCOTUS upholds an equal protection arguement, immediately making the recognition of gay marriage mandatory in all in states via the incorporation clause of the 14th amendment; 2) SCOTUS punts on the equal protection argument, but validates a full faith and credit clause argument. Thus, gay people just travel to a state that allows it, get married, and then return home where they will receive the benefits of their marriage; or 3) the old people die off, and as the electorate naturally changes, gay marriage gets approved in more and more states .
My guess is 1 or 2 happens before 3. And indeed, the GOP probably prefers as much, because it'll give them a rallying issue for the next few cycles (see, e.g., Roe v. Wade)
I imagine it will follow the interracial marriage pattern. Three will be the norm in a certain number of states, but with a significant group of holdouts. Once we reach a critical mass of states that have legalized gay marriage, SCOTUS will step in and issue the gay marriage version of Loving and complete the process.
And if I was a young GOP hopeful, I'd just keep my head down on this gay marriage issue for 2020/24. No need to put out any statements/policy papers that could crater your chance at office in the years to come.