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NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

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Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

bucky15 said:
Steve, which Canadian team do you think will win the cup next?
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My youngest son and I say Toronto, my oldest son says Edmonton.

The Sicatoka said:
I wasn't sure horses had been invented yet back then. :D

It's fun to listen to 640 Toronto (TuneIn Radio) when they talk Leafs.
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Wiseguy, huh? How about those motorcycle helmets too?

I was 13 that summer -- I've been collecting Canada Pension for four years. :(
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

I say Edmonton. I'm not sold on Andersen being the 'clutch' playoff goalie Toronto needs.

I would not put money on either one though. I think Edmonton's window is shorter, especially given that Cam Talbot is already 30, and who knows if Nick Ellis is good enough for the NHL.
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

FadeToBlack&Gold said:
I say Edmonton. I'm not sold on Andersen being the 'clutch' playoff goalie Toronto needs.

I would not put money on either one though. I think Edmonton's window is shorter, especially given that Cam Talbot is already 30, and who knows if Nick Ellis is good enough for the NHL.
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That team could be so much better is the frustrating thing to think about. They could still have Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle :facepalm:
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

trixR4kids said:
That team could be so much better is the frustrating thing to think about. They could still have Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle :facepalm:
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I think the Oilers got better with the Larsson/Hall trade. They needed a dman more than a left wing who has yet to score 30 goals in a season and doesn't care to play defense. The Eberle trade was done to free up cap space for next year when the McD contract starts up. They are rolling the dice on Strome.

The Oilers have signed some bad contracts on aging players, plus there goalie is getting old. They may be the next Canadian cup winner, but I agree the window is a short one.
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

They didn't get better because of the Larsson Hall trade, they got better because McDavid played a full season and they got unsustainably good goaltending from a guy who was almost 30. This is why Dom L's preseason predictions have the Oilers getting more like 93 points next year and not 100. Hall is a top five player at his position and Larsson is a low end first pairing D at best. They easily could have room for these guys without the horrid Lucic contract too.

With the D they just needed someone to get the puck to McDavid and go from there. The guy is so good he can make Kris Russell look competent and a guy like Larsson look much better than he is. The Penguins without Letang were the same way basically.
 
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Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

trixR4kids said:
They didn't get better because of the Larsson Hall trade, they got better because McDavid played a full season and they got unsustainably good goaltending from a guy who was almost 30. Hall is a top five player at his position and Larsson is a low end first pairing D at best. They easily could have room for these guys without the horrid Lucic contract too.
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We have different views on Hall. I also think Larsson is better than people give him credit for. He was +15 his last year in NJ and that team was awful. He played well for the Oilers this last year and played a lot of minutes.

Lucic is the worst of the three contracts I was thinking are bad. Sekera's will be viewed as bad in a few years and I don't get the Russell contract from the start.
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

+\- is a worthless stat but I'm not arguing he's a bad player he's just not nearly as elite at his position (albeit a more important one).

But yeah I forgot how bad the Russell contract extension was.
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

trixR4kids said:
+\- is a worthless stat
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Is there a way to make it less useless? Maybe normalizing it against overall team +/-?

It seems like it should be able to tell us things, but obvs the simple metric just tells me whether the team sucks.
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

trixR4kids said:
+\- is a worthless stat but I'm not arguing he's a bad player he's just not nearly as elite at his position (albeit a more important one).

But yeah I forgot how bad the Russell contract extension was.
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I knew you were going to say it is a worthless stat :) I usually agree, but when a team is that bad and a dman is +15 it says something. The Oilers don't need him to be elite, just need a stay at home dman when the rest of the team is rushing the puck.

Nice chatting NHL with you, enjoy the weekend.
 
Kepler said:
Is there a way to make it less useless? Maybe normalizing it against overall team +/-?

It seems like it should be able to tell us things, but obvs the simple metric just tells me whether the team sucks.
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Normalizing versus team +/- would be best. I mean if a team is -22 but a guy is +15 that seems to be an indication of something.
 
Kepler said:
Is there a way to make it less useless? Maybe normalizing it against overall team +/-?

It seems like it should be able to tell us things, but obvs the simple metric just tells me whether the team sucks.
Click to expand...
Basically you're better off using shot attempt +\- due to the sample size and (as a result) predictive nature. You're also better off normalizing that stat to account for zone starts/deployment. Also now they're using expected goals models which contain even more data than shot based metrics.

Jimjamesak said:
Normalizing versus team +/- would be best. I mean if a team is -22 but a guy is +15 that seems to be an indication of something.
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Not really because the sample size is far too small to be repeatable from year to year (which is basically how you know something is luck vs an actual skill) and like I said you need to account for zone starts. Like Larsson might've been +15 that year (guessing Schneider had a good year) and it wasn't that long ago that PK Subban (easily a top 10 Dman) was a minus on the year probably due to Price getting hurt and the backup being terrible.
 
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Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

So, remember when Malcolm Subban was a trendy pick for the Vegas Golden Nights for the expansion draft? And then they didn't?

No worries, they snatched him on waivers today.
 
Re: NHL 2017.1: We turn over a new Leaf and still find a Penguin

Tom Wilson (WSH) gets a 4 game vacation courtesy of George Parros.
 
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