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NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/13) most likely outcomes are:

West: LAK in 5 (21.0%), STL in 6 (22.2%), PHX in 6 (18.7%), NSH in 6 (21.2%)
East: NYR in 5 (28.8%), BOS in 5 (22.8%), NJD in 5 (23.2%), PHI in 4 (28.0%)

Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 29.0% - LAK 71.0%
STL 57.9% - SJS 42.1%
PHX 65.2% - CHI 34.8%
NSH 56.2% - DET 43.8%

East
NYR 88.2% - OTT 11.8%
BOS 75.2% - WAS 24.8%
FLA 23.8% - NJD 76.2%
PIT 15.2% - PHI 84.7%

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Note: Philly is now favored to sweep Pittsburgh, but I'm sure the Penguins will have something to say about that. Also, I found it interesting that despite the Flyers having a two-game lead and the Rangers only having one game on the Senators that the Rangers are more likely to win their series than the Flyers are.
 
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Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

This is going to be one of those stories. Goalie comes in at the end of season, rookie, and goes on a roll. I bet the Caps make it to the Conference Finals with him.
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Scarlet said:
This is going to be one of those stories. Goalie comes in at the end of season, rookie, and goes on a roll. I bet the Caps make it to the Conference Finals with him.
Click to expand...

That would be awesome. Love those stories.

Poor kid-that goal just now was rough.
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Yay OT! More hockey to watch while waiting for my team to play.

Washington: Brooks Laich
Boston: Patrice Bergeron
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Scarlet said:
This is going to be one of those stories. Goalie comes in at the end of season, rookie, and goes on a roll. I bet the Caps make it to the Conference Finals with him.
Click to expand...
Hmmmm... Seen that act before :)

CMT1972.jpg
 
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