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NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
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Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Kepler said:
This. OT playoff hockey is the most exciting thing in sports. You don't even have to give a crap about the teams -- in fact it probably helps not to. :)
Click to expand...

It definitely helps not to. It's enough to make you sick when your team goes to OT with so much at stake.
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, the updated (after 4/12) most likely outcomes are:

West: VAN in 7 (20.2%), STL in 6 (22.2%), PHX in 6 (18.7%), NSH in 5 (22.1%)
East: NYR in 5 (28.8%), BOS in 5 (22.8%), NJD in 6 (18.5%), PHI in 5 (20.1%)

Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 51.3% - LAK 48.7%
STL 58.0% - SJS 42.0%
PHX 65.2% - CHI 34.8%
NSH 73.7% - DET 26.3%

East
NYR 88.2% - OTT 11.8%
BOS 75.2% - WAS 24.8%
FLA 39.1% - NJD 60.9%
PIT 31.0% - PHI 69.0%

As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.

Notes: Phoenix's win last night made their series the first to have its favorite change. I was curious to see if it were possible that the most likely outcome of a series could be different than the series' overall favorite (e.g., VAN in 7 is the most likely outcome, but LAK is more likely to win the series). It looks like, at least for the VAN-LAK series, if Vancouver's KRACH was just a little lower (or LA's a little higher), such would be the case. I imagine it could only occur if the team more likely to win each individual game trailed the series by one game. Anyone have some other potential mathematical insight? (yes, I know most of you were told there would be no math)
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

The Florida Panthers are unable to make it to tonight's hockey game.

Instead we have this showing of Jose Theodore vs. the New Jersey Devils.

NJ's on pace for 92 shots on goal.
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

Puck drops, Flyers dump and change, and 15 seconds in a pretty give and go gives the pens the lead. What the hell?
 
Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup

bronconick said:
The Florida Panthers are unable to make it to tonight's hockey game.

Instead we have this showing of Jose Theodore vs. the New Jersey Devils.

NJ's on pace for 92 shots on goal.
Click to expand...

I just realized that Stephen Weiss has been in the NHL for a decade, and this is Florida's first playoff appearance in that span.
 
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