Re: NHL 2012: The Chase for the Cup
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found
here, the updated (after 4/11) most likely outcomes are:
West: VAN in 7 (20.2%), STL in 5 (23.5%), CHI in 6 (16.5%), NSH in 5 (22.1%)
East: NYR in 5 (24.3%), BOS in 6 (18.2%), NJD in 6 (18.5%), PHI in 5 (20.1%)
Overall winning probabilities:
West
VAN 51.4% - LAK 48.6%
STL 76.9% - SJS 23.1%
PHX 46.8% - CHI 53.2%
NSH 73.7% - DET 26.2%
East
NYR 78.6% - OTT 21.4%
BOS 59.5% - WAS 40.5%
FLA 39.2% - NJD 60.8%
PIT 31.0% - PHI 69.0%
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
EDIT: Yay, new KRACH values!