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NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
- Thread starter burgie12
- Start date
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hockeyplayer1015
Capt
Or the floppopotymus himself, Mike Smith.
state of hockey
He fixes the cable?
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Kings in three.
Kings in three.
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Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Conference Finals recap post!
Using Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, it was possible to break down the probabilities of each possible outcome of the two series. Here's how those initial projections stacked up:
PHX-LAK
Initial projection: Phoenix in 6, 16.4%
Overall projection: Phoenix wins, 52.8%
Actual outcome: Los Angeles in 5
Initial possibility: 11.6% (6th most likely of 8)
NYR-NJD
Initial projection: New York in 6, 19.2%
Overall projection: New York wins, 63.4%
Actual outcome: New Jersey in 6
Initial possibility: 11.6% (6th most likely of 8)
Pretty bad. Neither winner, one length.
Conference Finals recap post!
Using Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found here, it was possible to break down the probabilities of each possible outcome of the two series. Here's how those initial projections stacked up:
PHX-LAK
Initial projection: Phoenix in 6, 16.4%
Overall projection: Phoenix wins, 52.8%
Actual outcome: Los Angeles in 5
Initial possibility: 11.6% (6th most likely of 8)
NYR-NJD
Initial projection: New York in 6, 19.2%
Overall projection: New York wins, 63.4%
Actual outcome: New Jersey in 6
Initial possibility: 11.6% (6th most likely of 8)
Pretty bad. Neither winner, one length.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found in the spreadsheet burgie12 gave me (but also here), the initial probabilities for each possible outcome of the Stanley Cup Final are:
Most likely: LAK in 6
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: This is the closest series of the 15 we've seen. The teams' KRACHs are less than a point a part, so it's practically a dead heat.
Based on Bradley-Terry rankings (i.e., KRACH) found in the spreadsheet burgie12 gave me (but also here), the initial probabilities for each possible outcome of the Stanley Cup Final are:
Code:
-------------
| Game| % |
|-----------|
| NJD |49.9%|
|-----|-----|
| LAK |50.1%|
-------------
----------------
| Outcome| % |
|--------------|
|NJD in 7|15.6%|
|--------|-----|
|NJD in 6|15.5%|
|--------|-----|
|NJD in 5|12.4%|
|--------|-----|
|NJD in 4|6.18%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 4|6.31%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 5|12.6%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 6|15.7%|
|--------|-----|
|LAK in 7|15.7%|
|==============|
| NJD|49.7%|
|--------|-----|
| LAK|50.3%|
----------------
Game: Probability of winning each gameMost likely: LAK in 6
As always, KRACH is not a perfect predictive system. In fact, it's not predictive at all; it's retrodictive. Home-ice advantage, momentum, and the like can not be accounted for reliably, so they are ignored.
Remarks: This is the closest series of the 15 we've seen. The teams' KRACHs are less than a point a part, so it's practically a dead heat.
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Some idiots are suggesting the Bruins trade to get Rick Nash. Screw that. The Blue Jackets want Doug Hamilton AND Tyler Seguin. Just how much crack have the folks in Columbus been smoking? Zach Parise is a perfect fit for this team, he'll be a free agent this summer and the Bruins have a ton of cap space...it's like a perfect storm.
Some idiots are suggesting the Bruins trade to get Rick Nash. Screw that. The Blue Jackets want Doug Hamilton AND Tyler Seguin. Just how much crack have the folks in Columbus been smoking? Zach Parise is a perfect fit for this team, he'll be a free agent this summer and the Bruins have a ton of cap space...it's like a perfect storm.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
With NJ making the Final, there is no shot the Bruins will get Parise.
I'm all for getting Nash if the price is right. I'd be willing to deal only one skater, Krejci or Marchand. Throw in 2 of any prospect not named Hamilton. If they want Thomas, that works too.
With NJ making the Final, there is no shot the Bruins will get Parise.
I'm all for getting Nash if the price is right. I'd be willing to deal only one skater, Krejci or Marchand. Throw in 2 of any prospect not named Hamilton. If they want Thomas, that works too.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
But he wants to come home! If he wins a cup, he can sign with the Wild and play with Koivu. At least we'd have a 1st line then.
But he wants to come home! If he wins a cup, he can sign with the Wild and play with Koivu. At least we'd have a 1st line then.
MountieBoyOz
Eater of Worlds
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Hope the Kings enjoy getting shot at in downtown Newark. Also, Chris Christie may just eat Jonathan Quick.
Hope the Kings enjoy getting shot at in downtown Newark. Also, Chris Christie may just eat Jonathan Quick.
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
I'd say they'd be idiots to ask for a goalie with at most 3-4 years of hockey left in him given the amount of rebuilding they face, but to my knowledge Howson has not yet been fired, so you may as well call them.
I'd say they'd be idiots to ask for a goalie with at most 3-4 years of hockey left in him given the amount of rebuilding they face, but to my knowledge Howson has not yet been fired, so you may as well call them.
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Don't forget to make your picks for the SCFs
Don't forget to make your picks for the SCFs
MUnRPI
New member
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
How much crack have you been smoking? Why would Parise want to go to an inferior Boston team?
How much crack have you been smoking? Why would Parise want to go to an inferior Boston team?
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
You mean the team that won the Cup last year?
MUnRPI
New member
P
Priceless
Guest
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Yeah, a whole year removed from winning the Cup...they're a shambles. Lucky to make the playoffs next year.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Speaking of Hasek, I hope Ken Holland is not getting any stupid ideas.
Speaking of Hasek, I hope Ken Holland is not getting any stupid ideas.
bigblue_dl
Armed
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
Its the truth. Zach is coming home!
MountieBoyOz
Eater of Worlds
Re: NHL 2012: Playoffs! Part II: Boogalooing all the way to the Cup
In the AHL, Toronto is going to face Norfolk for the Calder Cup. No word on whether the Marlies will take the place of the Leafs for the 2012-13 season.
In the AHL, Toronto is going to face Norfolk for the Calder Cup. No word on whether the Marlies will take the place of the Leafs for the 2012-13 season.
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