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NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

SJHovey said:
Here's the thing, and I'm not trying to be snarky here. I believe you when you say you don't gamble, because of your comment regarding the "free money" and this gambling line that you think is so off-base.

What you saw was what is referred to as a "moneyline prop bet."

Apparently Bovada set the "line" for Patriots wins in the first four games at 1.5, according to what you saw. However, the more important aspect of the bet, and the part that you didn't report, is what the payoff number is. At 1.5 wins, that bet probably pays something like -160 or -170, if I had to guess. What that means is that if you bet the "over" (the Patriots win more than 1.5 games) which you think is clearly the way to go, the bet pays very poorly. You have to wager $160 or $170 to win $100.

In other words, you bet $100 that the Pats win more than 1.5 games, you're going to get paid something like $58 if you are right, but they keep your $100 if you are wrong. It's a suckers bet, I would guess, recognizing that I don't know what the actual moneyline number is for that prop.


Edit: If I had to guess, I'd guess that the number of wins really anticipated by the Bovada computers, and probably Las Vegas if they spread this prop, is about 2. You have to remember that Las Vegas and the online sports books hate a "pushed" bet. If they set the line at 2, some will bet the over, some will bet the under, but there is a high probability that the bets get pushed because the Pats win 2, and everyone gets their money back. Just my hunch.

Also, with respect to Bovada, it's actually a fairly well-respected online site that is known for fairly and quickly providing payouts to its customers, unlike a great many sites. Like other online sites it has to be located in Latvia or Costa Rica or some other locale with loose restrictions on online gambling because of the stone-age thinking of U.S. officials.
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This is why I don't gamble...
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

Mel Kiper at ESPN, or Michael Irvin at NFL Network for draft coverage.

This is like choosing between a firing squad and a beheading.
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

Hammer said:
Mel Kiper at ESPN, or Michael Irvin at NFL Network for draft coverage.

This is like choosing between a firing squad and a beheading.
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And the answer, of course, is turn on the ****ing hockey game. Duh.:p
 
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

Ole Miss came out of mediocrity to sign a handful of the best players in the country (most of which were from out of state anyway) Everyone in college football cheats like hell, Freeze and company were never very subtle about it.

There'll probably be a 30 for 30 about Ole Miss in a decade.
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

Sad to say the patsies had a better first rd than the Stillers :(
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

bronconick said:
Ole Miss came out of mediocrity to sign a handful of the best players in the country (most of which were from out of state anyway) Everyone in college football cheats like hell, Freeze and company were never very subtle about it.

There'll probably be a 30 for 30 about Ole Miss in a decade.
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Already been made. Ghosts of Ole Miss
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

goldy_331 said:
And the answer, of course, is turn on the ****ing hockey game. Duh.:p
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I'm 90% there. I swore off the B1G following the cash grab expansion to Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers (no joke). Dad is a '78 UMich grad (so I was somewhat raised that way), and even he has been disillusioned by all of this crap.
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

After that, I'm beginning to wonder if the cheese is starting to slide off of Gale Sayers' cracker.
 
Re: NFL 2015-16: Super Bowl and offseason

Saw where Joel Stave was drafted by the Vikes. The article said he was the winningest QB in Wisconsin history. UW is not exactly QBU, but as many struggles as he had that was a bit of a shocker.
 
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