Re: New Poll Predictions for 11/2
Neumann didn't LOSE the game. A tie is a tie, I think we can agree that they don't hurt you as much as losses do, right?
Depends. I'm the guy who thinks a team can win and move down in the polls. Also, one can lose and move up. It's not a common occurence, but it certainly can happen.
I've always thought the poll should be treated as an attempt to put the teams in order from most best to least best. Therefore,
to an extent, wins and losses are not the end-all-be-all. As numerous years of polls have shown, I'm about the only one who feels this way.
This actually happened, but I won't mention what year and what teams were involved.
One team was an upstart and currently sitting at #15. That week, they went 1-0-1 with the tie coming on the road against the #1 team in the nation. The #15 team actually lost votes the following week and fell out of the top 15.
On my ballot, I moved them
up. I saw no reason whatsoever that I should rank that team any lower than I previously had them. I likely would have done the same had they lost 2-1, 3-2 or something along those lines.
This team went on to win 20+ games that season and ended up solidly in the top 10, but at the time it wasn't a "W" so it hurt. No context seemed to be applied to what was really a very impressive road tie.
Look at it this way: Had this team gotten a lucky bounce and won that game in overtime, they'd probably have vaulted into the top 10. Conversely, had they gotten an unlucky hop and lost in OT they'd have dropped like a rock.
Why? It's the same team regardless.
Granted, ultimately a team has to win some games to be taken seriously, but once that game went to overtime, how relevant is the outcome to that team's overall quality?
I submit that it's hardly relevant at all.
I'm about the only one that thinks that way, however. If I didn't have better things to do I bet I could actually develop a working formula for the numerical impact of wins and losses on a team's ranking.
There is a lot of autopilot going on with some of the voters, and I don't have a problem saying that as at times it's a joke. Some of the trends are literally comical. Two wins they go up three, a loss they go down three, two losses and they are out completely, don't play a game drop one, etc. I'm positive that statistically significant trends could be backed out of things.
There are some tendencies that are wholly counterintuitive, and maybe if I'm feeling ambitious I'll try to point a few out as I notice them this season.
Aside from that, the ballot should be top 15...best to 15th best. There's a lot that goes into trying to determine that order, though it appears most of the voters ignore a lot of them at times.
Why not? I don't care anymore. Ready for a firestorm?
Were there an end of season poll last year, my #1 team would have been Hobart. They were a better team than Neumann, even though Neumann won the semifinal game.
