Re: Nescac 10 - 11
OK, here is my preseason shot. I limit my thoughts based on returning players, since the impact of freshmen could sway any or all of these picks dramatically. Also, I think that Colby, Weslyan and Conn College will need significant freshmen upgrades to compete, and therefore I will not address those teams here.
1. Amherst - Three big names graduate, so what? This team is still the best in show. Losing Dennett, Dier and McGann merely means that they aren't as deep as last year, and maybe Plumer will have to think more about which line he puts out instead of rolling his deep bench like last year. Hu is a gamer and has proved that on the rare occasions where Amherst is outplayed, she can be a difference maker.
2. Middlebury - Still looking for size and physical strength to match their speed and ability. As recently as 4 years ago this team regularly outplayed their ranked opponents. Recently, virtually all of their success against ranked opponents has depended on Lani Wright or Lexi Bloom to be the difference. Midd's graduation losses probably the least significant among the contenders. Wright was great last year, but Bloom has done it before and should do it again.
3. Bowdoin - Also had minimal loss of firepower from a team that was within one wiffed shot of taking Amherst down in the NESCAC semi's. Lessard can steal games, and their top two lines will give everyone a run for their money. Also, O'Neill coming home to coach should elevate the intangibles.
4. Trinity - Their only impact loss is Izzy. Komerek, McGaw and Weiss all have All-American credentials, but you don't win in this league without stellar goaltending, and I'm hard pressed to imagine that anyone can fill Izzy's shoes.
5. Hamilton - Minimal losses to graduation. Look for Miguel to go out in a blaze of glory. Hazlett can be great, but must overcome occasional lapses that stung her last year.
6. Williams - Ephs graduate most of their scoring and all of their goaltending. Enough said. One or more of the bottom 3 teams likely to leap frog this spot.
As I said earlier, this is based on returning players only. We saw what Amherst's freshmen did three years ago, and any one of these teams could rise to the top with a solid group of recruits.