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nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

dxmnkd316 said:
Based on what? Latest data from the WHO says the CFR (2-3%) and R0 (2-4) is on par with 1918 Flu. We also know that seasonal flu has an R0 of 0.5-2 depending on the strain and a CFR of something like 0.01-0.1%, and a capable vaccine, so perhaps its CFR/R0 would be significantly higher without the vaccine. So who knows.
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Well, you know what they say about statistics. WHO and CDC have admitted that we really don't know how many people have actually caught it for various reasons, so the denominator could be highly inaccurate.

Plus there's the terrifying fact that this is popping up in areas with no known China connection, we have an incompetent government, and hospitals aren't prepared for it because we just don't know how to handle cases yet on a widespread basis.
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I've been wondering about this. Let's suppose I went to China, caught the virus but was naturally immune to it but still transmissible, and thus never detected in the airport checks. I then give it to someone who only gets mildly sick and thus never seeks medical aid. He then gives it to someone who gets very sick, seeks medical aid, and thus is recorded as officially getting the virus. The problem is, that third person may have no idea of the China connection from me. Especially if all the connections were between strangers in a public place.

I got to think some of this is going on. How much? Who knows?

Obviously, if there really are outbreaks without a China connection, then that's really scary.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

dxmnkd316 said:
Either way, the markets are betting this is bad and my company has pulled back all inventory of every respirator and mask from our employee stores. Even if the virus fizzles, the damage is being done to the world markets and panic is setting in. Try to find an N95 mask tonight and you'll probably strike out.
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The SARS outbreak caused $40 billion to be removed from the worldwide economy.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Where are the places without a China connection? Iran? An outbreak in Lombardy, Italy started from Chinese tourists. Then traveling Italians have spread out further, I believe. (Spain, Canary Islands)
 
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Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

state of hockey said:
Where are the places with China connection? Iran? An outbreak in Lombardy, Italy started from Chinese tourists. Then traveling Italians have spread out further, I believe. (Spain, Canary Islands)
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This is all Marco Polo's fault.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Russell Jaslow said:
The SARS outbreak caused $40 billion to be removed from the worldwide economy.
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I'm not sure that's quite how it works. That specific wording. Either it was never there and this is just lost productivity, which still means it's not real; the virus caused deflation, or the the money caught the virus and died. I'm guessing it's the first.

Plus, $40 billion is absolutely squat. The GDP of the world is $87 trillion. $40 billion is 0.05% of the global GDP.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Nothing will ever be fool proof but it’d be nice if China cracked down on their wild animal trade. Can’t think of a nation I want to visit less. Well, maybe India
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Russell Jaslow said:
Well, you know what they say about statistics. WHO and CDC have admitted that we really don't know how many people have actually caught it for various reasons, so the denominator could be highly inaccurate.



I've been wondering about this. Let's suppose I went to China, caught the virus but was naturally immune to it but still transmissible, and thus never detected in the airport checks. I then give it to someone who only gets mildly sick and thus never seeks medical aid. He then gives it to someone who gets very sick, seeks medical aid, and thus is recorded as officially getting the virus. The problem is, that third person may have no idea of the China connection from me. Especially if all the connections were between strangers in a public place.

I got to think some of this is going on. How much? Who knows?

Obviously, if there really are outbreaks without a China connection, then that's really scary.
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Right, I agree with all of this. However, that's why CFR is both highly variable in the early stages of a pandemic and when you start to talk about pandemics, I'm guessing the denominator is large no matter what and grossly underestimated. It's kind of analogous to the law of large numbers. Plus, CFR only considers the documented cases. IFR, the infection fatality rate, is almost always significantly lower and is almost impossible to calculate. I think you're talking about the IFR (total infections) and I'm referring to documented cases.

Regarding the non-China connection, I also agree that would be terrifying. But I really meant "no known" when I said that. I should have put it in italics. What's I was getting at was people are hiding their connections and their illnesses because they are probably in denial and are afraid of reprisals. Iran is the one I'm thinking of. Imagine being in a totalitarian regime and you catch this. No bueno.

And secondarily, there's "no known" connection because people are possibly asymptomatic when they're spreading this. There's some research out there pointing to this being contagious well before symptoms show up.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Aaand we now have a confirmed case in Brazil. I’m sure that will be contained
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

dxmnkd316 said:
Imagine being in a totalitarian regime and you catch this. No bueno.
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Speaking of, just wait until we get the first reported case of a brown immigrant with it. What do you think Stephen Miller is gonna do with that information, and a right wing media machine to say it's "only prudent" to trebuchet the entire Latino population, LPR or citizen, over the Rio Grande?
 
dxmnkd316 said:
And secondarily, there's "no known" connection because people are possibly asymptomatic when they're spreading this. There's some research out there pointing to this being contagious well before symptoms show up.
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I think it’s widely accepted now it’s being transmitted with no symptoms and it’s unknown incubation period
 
Kepler said:
Speaking of, just wait until we get the first reported case of a brown immigrant with it. What do you think Stephen Miller is gonna do with that information?
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I mean, trump tweeted that Obama should have hugged each Ebola victim so...
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
I think it’s widely accepted now it’s being transmitted with no symptoms and it’s unknown incubation period
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Ok, I wasn't 100% sure the research had confirmed it. Thanks.

I was reading another couple of papers (here and here) that were also scary in that it can live on surfaces for days but reassuring that diluted bleach and hand sanitizer work fairly well in killing it on surfaces. When used properly...
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Ok, I wasn't 100% sure the research had confirmed it. Thanks.

I was reading another couple of papers (here and here) that were also scary in that it can live on surfaces for days but reassuring that diluted bleach and hand sanitizer work fairly well in killing it on surfaces. When used properly...
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I was talking with some pandemic specialist docs yesterday and they reiterated that masks are not helpful for anyone who isn’t sick. You’re better off wiping down everything you touch with sanitizer
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
I was talking with some pandemic specialist docs yesterday and they reiterated that masks are not helpful for anyone who isn’t sick. You’re better off wiping down everything you touch with sanitizer
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Really? I thought they work fine but most people don't use them correctly. They touch the outside of the mask, they re-use them, they don't disinfect their hands after, etc.

I don't disagree that they're ineffective for the masses. PPE is only as effective as the end user adheres to proper procedure. There's a reason they're used in the medical industry and they receive NIOSH/FDA approvals. Similarly, there's a reason I always overspec hearing protection and usually double up on it. I usually use ear inserts AND wear the highest grade of earmuffs I can comfortably wear. Because I know I don't wear the inserts 100% per the specs. I'm probably 90% of the way there. But then I see the average moron at the trap range with the inserts only partially inserted. I'm guessing those offer only 20-50% the protection, on a good day.
 
Re: nCoV 2019-2020 Outbreak

Well, there are signs it’s being transmitted more than via respiratory. And people touch their eyes, etc. you’re better off with the sanitizer
 
state of hockey said:
Where are the places without a China connection? Iran? An outbreak in Lombardy, Italy started from Chinese tourists. Then traveling Italians have spread out further, I believe. (Spain, Canary Islands)
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Chinese are crawling all over Iran.

The Brazilian was in Italy on business.
 
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