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NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thread)

Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Russell Jaslow said:
But will that get them on the t-shirt...
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There are no t-shirts this year. The FF is out west so the NCAA felt no need for merchandise. Instead it will be unlimited Dasani cups for everyone!
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Matt Rennell said:
Since it may be a while before Josh is able to start the annual thread. Here is my projection after this weekend's results.


West
1- St. Norbert
2- Hamline?????????
3- Wis. Eau-Claire
4- Adrian??????
5- MSOE
6- Wis. Superior
7- Marian

First let's add all the current conference leaders to the AQ field.

ECAC East: Castleton
ECAC NE: Curry
MCHA: Adrian
MIAC: Hamline
NCHA: St. Norbert
NESCAC: Bowdoin
SUNYAC: Oswego



West
1- St. Norbert
2- Hamline??????
3- Wis. Eau-Claire
4- Adrian??????

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Help me understand how Hamline would be ranked ahead of Adrian. The "head to head" game, Adrian easily handled Hamline 4-1 on Nov 27th. On top of that Adrian is 15-3-1, while our friends in Hamline are 12-3-4. Really......that adds up to ranking Adrian 2 spots lower than Hamline?
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Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

I'm going to try this again, as apparently it didn't go through the first time. Maybe the impending Death Storm 2011 broke something before it even hit.

What is killing Adrian is the loss to Eau Claire. That will cost us against most NCHA teams, in terms of record vs. common opponents. Those NCHA teams will compare favorably against Hamline, with the exception of SNC, who has lost to Hamline this season. While we may win a comparison against Hamline, the loss to Eau Claire will do more damage to us relative to the other teams.

What is also hurting us are those 4 wins (and soon to be 6, I suspect) against Concordia and Finlandia, who have a combined 2 wins this season, with not many prospects for improvement there. Puts one helluva dent in our SOS.

The only way I see us getting a 6-5 split is if SNC loses in the NCHA semis, and the 2nd highest NCHA team at that time loses in the final. SNC is just about a near-mortal lock to grab a Pool C in that case, the NCHA tourney champ pulls the Pool A, and the 2nd highest ranked NCHA team may pull another Pool C from an Eastern team. The MCHA and MIAC look to be single-bid conferences this year, regardless of who gets those Pool A's.
 
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Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

GoBullDogsGo said:
Help me understand how Hamline would be ranked ahead of Adrian. The "head to head" game, Adrian easily handled Hamline 4-1 on Nov 27th. On top of that Adrian is 15-3-1, while our friends in Hamline are 12-3-4. Really......that adds up to ranking Adrian 2 spots lower than Hamline?
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A few things....

First, their records for NCAA purposes is 12-2-4 for Hamline and 13-2-1 for Adrian. Games against the East do not count in the primary criteria.

Second, one game does not make a 25 game season.

Third, and most importantly, Hamline has played a vastly superior schedule their Adrian. It's not even close. Not by a long shot. Hamline's SOS is .5301 and Adrian's is .4696. That is a huge huge difference.

Lastly, Hamline has wins over St. Norbert and Wis. Superior which will help them big time in the record vs. ranked teams criteria. Adrian's best win? Hamline and then probably the Czech Under 18 team.

Not that it matters anyway. If Adrian does not win the MCHA they are golfing early.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

MSOE may turn out to be a better win than you think. A 3-0-1 record would be even better.

Matt Rennell said:
Not that it matters anyway. If Adrian does not win the MCHA they are golfing early.
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Hamline might be in that same boat.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Hammer said:
MSOE may turn out to be a better win than you think. A 3-0-1 record would be even better.

Hamline might be in that same boat.
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Re: MSOE. You are probably right, either way though it's MCHA or bust.

As for Hamline, it could go either way. If the season ended today and they were the only favorite to lose their tourney, I say they are in. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. Right now the only conference guarenteed to get 2 teams in the field is the ECAC West in my opinion. I also say the NESCAC, ECACNE, and MCHA are 1 team locks. The last 2 Pool C spots will come down to either Oswego or St. Norbert losing, or two of the following:

MIAC (Hamline if they lose the AQ)
SUNYAC (Plattsburgh)
ECAC East (Castleton/Norwich loser)
NCHA (Wis. Superior/Wis. Eau Claire)
Or you could always end up with a 3rd team from the ECAC West, although not likely.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

I would not bet against the NCHA getting two teams, and Platty putting it together out East. Benefit of a doubt based on recent history, if you will. I still think, like you, that we're looking at a 7-4 split unless all holy hell breaks loose in the NCHA tourney, and that would put 1 MCHA, 1 MIAC and 2 NCHA teams in the West bracket.

You've been doing this longer than I have, but I would guess that Hamline has much less margin for error than you think.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Hammer said:
I would not bet against the NCHA getting two teams, and Platty putting it together out East. Benefit of a doubt based on recent history, if you will. I still think, like you, that we're looking at a 7-4 split unless all holy hell breaks loose in the NCHA tourney, and that would put 1 MCHA, 1 MIAC and 2 NCHA teams in the West bracket.

You've been doing this longer than I have, but I would guess that Hamline has much less margin for error than you think.
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Quoted For Truth
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Matt Rennell said:
Re: MSOE. You are probably right, either way though it's MCHA or bust.

As for Hamline, it could go either way. If the season ended today and they were the only favorite to lose their tourney, I say they are in. Obviously a lot can happen between now and then. Right now the only conference guarenteed to get 2 teams in the field is the ECAC West in my opinion. I also say the NESCAC, ECACNE, and MCHA are 1 team locks. The last 2 Pool C spots will come down to either Oswego or St. Norbert losing, or two of the following:

MIAC (Hamline if they lose the AQ)
SUNYAC (Plattsburgh)
ECAC East (Castleton/Norwich loser)
NCHA (Wis. Superior/Wis. Eau Claire)
Or you could always end up with a 3rd team from the ECAC West, although not likely.
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Does Geneseo have any shot at a Pool C? You did not list them here but have them ranked higher than Plattsburgh in your rankings. I have to think if Geneseo wins out and loses in the SUNYAC Championship (to Oswego), then they would be looking pretty good.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Ozz said:
Does Geneseo have any shot at a Pool C? You did not list them here but have them ranked higher than Plattsburgh in your rankings. I have to think if Geneseo wins out and loses in the SUNYAC Championship (to Oswego), then they would be looking pretty good.
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Yes, that was an oversight, they should be included there as well.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Matt Rennell said:
There are no t-shirts this year. The FF is out west so the NCAA felt no need for merchandise. Instead it will be unlimited Dasani cups for everyone!
Click to expand...

Spilled my orange juice! :)
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Hammer said:
If you get a Pool A there is. And no, that's not a shot at your team.
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Hey, none taken. The MASCAC needs a miracle just to get a whiff of Pool B consideration.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

joecct said:
Hey, none taken. The MASCAC needs a miracle just to get a whiff of Pool B consideration.
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Next year will be different, but then Redlight will be gone - I hope not joecct, though. Maybe he'll become an NU fan :confused:
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

NUProf said:
Next year will be different, but then Redlight will be gone - I hope not joecct, though. Maybe he'll become an NU fan :confused:
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No, he is a USM fan but he won't admit it...:)
 
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