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NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thread)

M

Matt Rennell

Migrating to d3hockey.com
Since it may be a while before Josh is able to start the annual thread. Here is my projection after this weekend's results.

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Castleton St.
5- Geneseo
6- Manhattanville
7- Hobart
8- Plattsburgh
9- Norwich
10- Bowdoin
11- Salem State
12- Neumann
13- Morrisville
14- Fitchburg State
15- Plymouth State

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Hamline
3- Wis. Eau-Claire
4- Adrian
5- MSOE
6- Wis. Superior
7- Marian

First let's add all the current conference leaders to the AQ field.

ECAC East: Castleton
ECAC NE: Curry
MCHA: Adrian
MIAC: Hamline
NCHA: St. Norbert
NESCAC: Bowdoin
SUNYAC: Oswego

Next, we add the Pool B winner to the field which projects to be Elmira.

Lastly, we hand out the Pool C spots.

Teams under consideration are, in order: Utica, Geneseo, and Manhattanville for the East and Wis. Eau-Claire, MSOE, and Wis. Superior for the west.

The end result is

Pool C 1: Utica
Pool C 2: Wis. Eau-Claire
Pool C 3: Geneseo

Which forms a field of...

East
1- Oswego
2- Elmira
3- Utica
4- Castleton
5- Geneseo
6- Bowdoin
7- Curry

West
1- St. Norbert
2- Hamline
3- Wis. Eau-Claire
4- Adrian

NCAA Play-ins
Curry @ Elmira
Bowdoin @ Utica
Geneseo @ Castleton

NCAA Quarterfinals
Adrian @ St. Norbert
Wis. Eau-Claire @ Hamline
Geneseo/Castleton @ Oswego
Bowdoin/Utica @ Curry/Elmira
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Another Norwich hater out there:eek: - we're still tied for for first in the ECAC East, ya know :D. Seriously, the NU Castleton game coming up is going to matter a lot.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

THREE MASCAC teams ranked??
 
NUProf said:
Another Norwich hater out there:eek: - we're still tied for for first in the ECAC East, ya know :D. Seriously, the NU Castleton game coming up is going to matter a lot.
Click to expand...
Prof. Look @ the PWC. Norwich does not compare favorably with many teams. The need the AQ to make the tournament. Castleton may not.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

joecct said:
THREE MASCAC teams ranked??
Click to expand...

I was as shocked as you are. That said, I 100% guarentee it wont happen, even if the numbers say it should. Expect the committee to rank teams like Williams or Hamilton or Babson to help the higher up teams in criteria.

And yes, Norwich does not compare very well against many teams.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Some questions for you Matt.
Mortal locks? Oswego and who else?
If conference upsets, who gets bumped?
Is it possible for a 6/5 split?
And my favorite - Armageddon - none of the current first place teams wins. Who survives?
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

joecct said:
Some questions for you Matt.
Mortal locks? Oswego and who else?
If conference upsets, who gets bumped?
Is it possible for a 6/5 split?
And my favorite - Armageddon - none of the current first place teams wins. Who survives?
Click to expand...

Barring an absolute collapse of epic proportions, Oswego has to be considered a lock. Even if they lose out they would probably still have a good shot.

Outside of them and maybe SNC, I don't think anyone can be considered safe at the moment.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

joecct said:
Some questions for you Matt.
Mortal locks? Oswego and who else?
If conference upsets, who gets bumped?
Is it possible for a 6/5 split?
And my favorite - Armageddon - none of the current first place teams wins. Who survives?
Click to expand...

I hesitate to call anyone a lock at this point because of how many games are left, but barring a total meltdown by these teams I'll roll with the following.

Locks:
Oswego
St. Norbert

Elmira, Hamline, and Utica are both looking real good as well, but I wouldn't call them absolute locks at this point.

If every single favorite loses their tourny? It would be Oswego, St. Norbert, and a toss up between Hamline/Elmira.

6/5? Anything is possible but at this point I would say not likely.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

joecct said:
Prof. Look @ the PWC. Norwich does not compare favorably with many teams. The need the AQ to make the tournament. Castleton may not.
Click to expand...

I am very much aware of that - that's why the upcoming Castleton game is so important. I'd rather have the ECAC East Tournament at Kreitzberg than at Spartan Arena. (I don't want to be pelted with ice balls :D) (The preceeding comment is an homage to hockeyfan77 :D)
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

NUProf said:
I am very much aware of that - that's why the upcoming Castleton game is so important. I'd rather have the ECAC East Tournament at Kreitzberg than at Spartan Arena. (I don't want to be pelted with ice balls :D) (The preceeding comment is an homage to hockeyfan77 :D)
Click to expand...



:D Well CSC is coming to town this Friday so I will be on my best behavior this week...I may even have one of the students workers @ USM hit me with an ice ball just to make me feel at home!!! :cool: I will not say another word about CSC and the prospect of playing them in round one of the playoffs until Friday night after the game...
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

hockeyfan77 said:
:D Well CSC is coming to town this Friday so I will be on my best behavior this week...I may even have one of the students workers @ USM hit me with an ice ball just to make me feel at home!!! :cool: I will not say another word about CSC and the prospect of playing them in round one of the playoffs until Friday night after the game...
Click to expand...

Good luck with that - if you play them in the first round, it means they aren't in line to host the finals :D
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

joecct said:
Hast thou forgotten the playoffs of not two year's past??
Click to expand...

Never will. I'd still rather play UNE in the first round with a home final four on the line than play USM with a trip to the Diamond Run Mall on the line.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

Amazing if those projections hold true. Did anyone even think they'd see an NCAA tourney without one of these three : Middlebury, Norwich, and Plattsburgh? When was the last time all three missed the tourney in the same year?
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

We would need to go back to the days when Midd wasn't allowed in the NCAAs.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

NUProf said:
We would need to go back to the days when Midd wasn't allowed in the NCAAs.
Click to expand...

Yep, 1994 was the last instance. Heck, '09 was the first time since then that none of those teams made the finals, let alone the tourney.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

My first projections should be coming out later this week: my full bracketology analysis will be exclusive to d3westhockey this year, though I will certainly be making some comments here. My only response right now on what Matt has proposed is that I agree with his outline, but have several key areas of disagreement. And interlock fans will not be pleased with me, but what's new?
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

I don't know about the NESCAC - they are dead to me :D - but I know that NU doesn't get in unless they win the AQ, and if they do get in they will be in a play-in, er...first round...game.
 
Re: NCAA Rankings Projections (Not to be confused with the definitive speculation thr

NUProf said:
I don't know about the NESCAC - they are dead to me :D - but I know that NU doesn't get in unless they win the AQ, and if they do get in they will be in a play-in, er...first round...game.
Click to expand...

But will that get them on the t-shirt...
 
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