NCAA D3 Rankings

[gojackets]

EAST    
1 Rochester Institute of Technology 19-1-1 21-1-1 
2 Norwich 15-2-1 19-2-1 
3 Middlebury 17-2-2 18-2-2 
4 Amherst 16-4 18-4 
5 Elmira 18-4-1 18-4-1 
6 Plattsburgh State 17-5-2 17-5-2 
7 Manhattanville 9-6-3 11-8-4 
8 Bowdoin 10-7-2 11-8-3 
9 Trinity (Connecticut) 12-9 12-10 
WEST    
1 Gustavus Adolphus 18-1-2 18-1-2 
2 Wisconsin-River Falls 19-2-2 19-3-2 
3 Concordia-Moorhead 11-3-3 12-4-3 
4 Wisconsin-Superior 14-6-3 14-6-3 
5 St. Thomas (Minnesota) 10-5-2 11-7-2 
6 Lake Forest 13-7-2 13-7-2 
7 St. Scholastica 11-5-5 12-6-5

I'm a little surprised no one has thrown these up here yet. Nothing too shocking out East, maybe Middlebury will move down after tonights loss??

I'm surprised to see Concordia ahead of Superior in the West rankings. It just goes to show that being a much much tougher conference doesn't lend any meaning to these rankings. Granted Superior tied Marian and lost to Eau Claire...I'd guarantee they would be #3 if that hadn't happened.

 

[eg1351]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Granted Superior tied Marian and lost to Eau Claire...I'd guarantee they would be #3 if that hadn't happened.

With this said, then why are you surprised? The worst Concordia has lost to is probably St. Kate's, who they split with.

Just because Superior is in a "tougher" conference doesn't mean their inconsistency should be ignored... especially if that inconsistency means tying to Marian. One win over Gustavus does not make their whole season.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

With this said, then why are you surprised? The worst Concordia has lost to is probably St. Kate's, who they split with.

Just because Superior is in a "tougher" conference doesn't mean their inconsistency should be ignored... especially if that inconsistency means tying to Marian. One win over Gustavus does not make their whole season.

They also beat River Falls...I was less surprised once I thought about it more.

 

[Tweedle Dee]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Minus anything screwy happening in conference tournaments, could it end up being a 6-2 split this year or does the West have to get a Pool C?

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Minus anything screwy happening in conference tournaments, could it end up being a 6-2 split this year or does the West have to get a Pool C?

Its almost guaranteed a 6-2 split. The only forseeable way that it could possibly be a 5-3 is if Adrian were to win the NCHA and they put River Falls in over say Elmira or Plattsburgh. Which would actually be likely as Adrian can't travel to Gustavus under the NCAA playoff travel rules. Adrian would get sent back to RIT, River Falls to Gustavus. Any other way and the NCAA would have to fly a team east/west something they don't want to do.

 

[Tweedle Dee]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Its almost guaranteed a 6-2 split. The only forseeable way that it could possibly be a 5-3 is if Adrian were to win the NCHA and they put River Falls in over say Elmira or Plattsburgh. Which would actually be likely as Adrian can't travel to Gustavus under the NCAA playoff travel rules. Adrian would get sent back to RIT, River Falls to Gustavus. Any other way and the NCAA would have to fly a team east/west something they don't want to do.

It could be Amherst or Middlebury they leave out but alot would have to go wrong for those teams for that to happen.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

It could be Amherst or Middlebury they leave out but alot would have to go wrong for those teams for that to happen.

They could..i choose plattsburgh/elmira cuz they are 5 and 6 in the East rankings. You know one of RIT/Elmira/Plattsburgh isn't going to make the ECAC-W title game...I would assume that if someone from the east was going to be left out it would be that team...unless Midd/Amherst didn't make it to the NESCAC title game...which could happen.

 

[Tweedle Dee]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

They could..i choose plattsburgh/elmira cuz they are 5 and 6 in the East rankings. You know one of RIT/Elmira/Plattsburgh isn't going to make the ECAC-W title game...I would assume that if someone from the east was going to be left out it would be that team...unless Midd/Amherst didn't make it to the NESCAC title game...which could happen.

I know that but conference tournaments can be tricky sometimes. the NESCAC is about as open as the ECAC-West is right now. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we got some surprises out of the NESCAC tournament.

 

[Derek Dunning]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Gojackets,

I actually believe that there is a possibility of it being a 5-3 split this season without Adrian being in the tournament.

Especially after last night's loss, the only Western team that could/should get a Pool C IMHO is Gustavus Adolphus. If somehow the Gusties were to be upset in the MIAC, they would have a case for a Pool C and I think they would get it so long as they make the MIAC championship game.

According to coaches I have talked to this season, the NCAA has stressed that they WILL indeed fly teams in the quarterfinals for the D-III women's tournament if needed this year. Now, obviously that could be all talk and they'd actually have to back it up when the opportunity presented itself.

Since you and I have been following D-III hockey for years we know it's tough to trust the NCAA on that matter considering all the times they haven't flown teams on the men's side when the numbers said they should have.

Based on results and past history, should it be a 6-2 split? Probably...but, the NCAA isn't allowed to look at past history when they are looking at the numbers. Although its a subjective process, if GAC has the numbers and needs a Pool C, according to what I've heard, they'll be in the tournament.

Which makes things a lot more complicated in the East since at least one of the power 6 would be left home and that's assuming that three of those teams win their respective conference tournaments.

 

[RJDJR]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

[/B]

EAST    
1 Rochester Institute of Technology 19-1-1 21-1-1 
2 Norwich 15-2-1 19-2-1 
3 Middlebury 17-2-2 18-2-2 
4 Amherst 16-4 18-4 
5 Elmira 18-4-1 18-4-1 
6 Plattsburgh State 17-5-2 17-5-2 
7 Manhattanville 9-6-3 11-8-4 
8 Bowdoin 10-7-2 11-8-3 
9 Trinity (Connecticut) 12-9 12-10 
WEST    
1 Gustavus Adolphus 18-1-2 18-1-2 
2 Wisconsin-River Falls 19-2-2 19-3-2 
3 Concordia-Moorhead 11-3-3 12-4-3 
4 Wisconsin-Superior 14-6-3 14-6-3 
5 St. Thomas (Minnesota) 10-5-2 11-7-2 
6 Lake Forest 13-7-2 13-7-2 
7 St. Scholastica 11-5-5 12-6-5

I'm a little surprised no one has thrown these up here yet. Nothing too shocking out East, maybe Middlebury will move down after tonights loss??

I'm surprised to see Concordia ahead of Superior in the West rankings. It just goes to show that being a much much tougher conference doesn't lend any meaning to these rankings. Granted Superior tied Marian and lost to Eau Claire...I'd guarantee they would be #3 if that hadn't happened.

[Emphasis added]

Hmmm...the statistics disprove your assertion. In the 42 games played this year between NCHA and MIAC teams, the MIAC is 24-12-8 with a 2 to 1 winning percentage over the NCHA. With this many games, it can't be a statistical fluke! But if you want to consider just the real potential contenders, say, the top 3 teams in each league, MIAC top 3 were 10-1-3 vs. NCHA overall. NCHA top 3 were 5-5-3 vs. MIAC overall. Head-to-head, MIAC top 3 were 4-1-2 vs. NCHA top 3. It really doesn't matter how you cut it, MIAC comes out statistically on top: Top 2 MIAC vs. top 2 NCHA, MIAC is 3-1-1. Thus, your claim that NCHA is "the much tougher conference" is completely unsupportable. In fact, the stats say exactly the opposite!

In recent past years, based just upon gut feeling and casual observation, and without computing the stats, I've felt that the NCHA not only was stronger than the MIAC, but also as strong or stronger than at least 2 of the eastern conferences. This year, not so much.

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Gojackets,

I actually believe that there is a possibility of it being a 5-3 split this season without Adrian being in the tournament.

Especially after last night's loss, the only Western team that could/should get a Pool C IMHO is Gustavus Adolphus. If somehow the Gusties were to be upset in the MIAC, they would have a case for a Pool C and I think they would get it so long as they make the MIAC championship game.

According to coaches I have talked to this season, the NCAA has stressed that they WILL indeed fly teams in the quarterfinals for the D-III women's tournament if needed this year. Now, obviously that could be all talk and they'd actually have to back it up when the opportunity presented itself.

Since you and I have been following D-III hockey for years we know it's tough to trust the NCAA on that matter considering all the times they haven't flown teams on the men's side when the numbers said they should have.

Based on results and past history, should it be a 6-2 split? Probably...but, the NCAA isn't allowed to look at past history when they are looking at the numbers. Although its a subjective process, if GAC has the numbers and needs a Pool C, according to what I've heard, they'll be in the tournament.

Which makes things a lot more complicated in the East since at least one of the power 6 would be left home and that's assuming that three of those teams win their respective conference tournaments.

Well I would say historically one of the power six in the east has always been left home. I don't think they should be guaranteed a spot, just because a 6th one opened up.

Let's say your scenario comes true and Concordia wins the MIAC, RF wins the NCHA. Would you assume that Concordia would fly out east and UWRF/GAC battle it out?

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Well I would say historically one of the power six in the east has always been left home. I don't think they should be guaranteed a spot, just because a 6th one opened up.

Let's say your scenario comes true and Concordia wins the MIAC, RF wins the NCHA. Would you assume that Concordia would fly out east and UWRF/GAC battle it out?

No, I think I would actually fly someone west to play at GAC and have Concordia play @ River Falls.... but I haven't looked closely to see who would deserve the home game GAC or the eastern team that would play them.

Since I don't possess nearly enough time to do so, is someone going to do a women's Bracketology? Derek?

 

[Derek Dunning]

No, I think I would actually fly someone west to play at GAC and have Concordia play @ River Falls.... but I haven't looked closely to see who would deserve the home game GAC or the eastern team that would play them.

Since I don't possess nearly enough time to do so, is someone going to do a women's Bracketology? Derek?

In year's past Matt Rennell has done an excellent job with Bracketology and he would share his findings on the here and then I would make mention of it in my blog/column.

Frankly I'm not sure I'll be able to go as in depth as he did but I'll certainly touch on how the field is shaping up each week.

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

In year's past Matt Rennell has done an excellent job with Bracketology and he would share his findings on the here and then I would make mention of it in my blog/column.

Frankly I'm not sure I'll be able to go as in depth as he did but I'll certainly touch on how the field is shaping up each week.

That's all we really need - we'll provide our own in-depth analysis! Isn't that what the forum is for?

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

No, I think I would actually fly someone west to play at GAC and have Concordia play @ River Falls.... but I haven't looked closely to see who would deserve the home game GAC or the eastern team that would play them.

Since I don't possess nearly enough time to do so, is someone going to do a women's Bracketology? Derek?

Per your request http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7676.0

Not as much detail written out as years passed frankly because I don't have the time to do so, but there you go.

 

[spwood]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Per your request http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7676.0

Not as much detail written out as years passed frankly because I don't have the time to do so, but there you go.

Thank you for the response, Matt. I didn't realize Concordia was as close to an at-large bid as they were. It would be in Plattsburgh/Elmira's best interest to make the ECAC West Final at the very least. (Obviously, it would be best to just win the tourney)...

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

This weeks rankings

EAST
1 RIT 21-1-1 23-1-1
2 Norwich 17-2-1 22-2-1
3 Amherst 17-4-1 19-4-1
4 Middlebury 17-3-3 18-3-3
5 Elmira 20-4-1 20-4-1
6 Plattsburgh State 17-5-3 17-5-3
7 Manhattanville 11-6-3 13-8-4
8 Bowdoin 10-8-3 11-9-4
9 Trinity (Conn.) 14-9 14-10

WEST
1 Gustavus Adolphus 19-2-2 19-2-2
2 Wisconsin-River Falls 19-3-2 19-4-2
3 Concordia-Moorhead 12-3-4 13-4-4
4 Wisconsin-Superior 15-7-3 15-7-3
5 St. Thomas (Minn.) 12-6-2 13-8-2
6 Adrian 12-6-2 14-8-2
T7 Lake Forest 13-9-2 13-9-2
T7 St. Scholastica 12-6-5 13-7-5

I didn't realize Teams could tie??

Not much change...Amherst did hop Middlbury....Adrian jumps in over LFC?CSS

I also noticed that on their spreadsheet they have Superior 5-3-1 vs ranked teams but they are really 5-4-2? 1-1 vs Gustavus, 1-1 vs River Falls, 0-1-1 vs Adrian, 1-1 vs CSS, 2-0 vs Lake Forest and 0-0-1 vs St Thomas...Maybe they forget to add in the results vs Adrian this week?

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

For those interested, here are my projections based on this week's results.

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=7676.0

 

[gojackets]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

I'll move this here

NCAA Quarterfinals
Elmira @ RIT
Middlebury @ Amherst
UWRF @ GAC
Plattsburgh @ Norwich

Matt,

Do you really think they would send Middlebury to Amherst as that will most likely be a rematch of the game played the week before?


Wouldn't

Elmira @ RIT
Middlebury @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Amherst

Make more sense?

Also i'm curious how you see it shaking out if a third west team gets in over Elmira...say UWS beats River Falls and Gustavus wins the MIAC

Or River Falls wins the NCHA and Concordia wins the MIAC?

 

[Matt Rennell]

Re: NCAA D3 Rankings

Matt,

Do you really think they would send Middlebury to Amherst as that will most likely be a rematch of the game played the week before?


Wouldn't

Elmira @ RIT
Middlebury @ Norwich
Plattsburgh @ Amherst

Make more sense?

Also i'm curious how you see it shaking out if a third west team gets in over Elmira...say UWS beats River Falls and Gustavus wins the MIAC

Or River Falls wins the NCHA and Concordia wins the MIAC?

To answer your first question, yes they would, provided that is how the final rankings look. There is nothing in the NCAA Championship Manual that says to avoid intraconference match-ups, if possible. Nor does the NCAA care who played who the week before. In fact, the NCAA has never altered the integrity of the seedings to avoid such a thing.

To answer your second question. If Gustavus loses the MIAC, they are in and it would be a 5/3 split.

However if UWRF loses the NCHA (and GAC wins the MIAC) then things get real close. Based on the current numbers I would have to give the nod to Elmira over UWRF. Throw in another UWRF loss and that isn't going to help their case.

To give you an idea of what it would look like if GAC lost the MIAC to Concordia, here it is.

EAST
1- RIT
2- Norwich
3- Amherst
4- Middlebury
5- Plattsburgh

West
1- GAC
2- UWRF
3- Concordia

We would likely see something like this.

NCAA Quarters
UWRF @ GAC
Concordia @ RIT
Plattsburgh @ Norwich
Middlebury @ Amherst

And yes, a 5/3 split (unless Adrian is involved) will require the NCAA to fly a team in the Quarters.