mnstate0fhockey
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Well said Koho.
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Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
- Thread starter Driftryder
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Well said Koho.
mnstate0fhockey
New member
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
I would take this bet in a heartbeat! However I wouldn't bet very much, because it's one I would rather lose.
I would take this bet in a heartbeat! However I wouldn't bet very much, because it's one I would rather lose.
HarleyMC
Registered User
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Nice job on this coach.
I think their hiccups in the first half is actually a good thing so they can take the time now to reflect and make adjustments going forward. I'm looking forward to them finding their niche though in the 2nd half, they're not that far off the mark. Here's a good STAT SITE w/ blocks and lots of goodies for the stat nerds like us.
Nice job on this coach.
I think their hiccups in the first half is actually a good thing so they can take the time now to reflect and make adjustments going forward. I'm looking forward to them finding their niche though in the 2nd half, they're not that far off the mark. Here's a good STAT SITE w/ blocks and lots of goodies for the stat nerds like us.Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
And I put more faith in SOG's than some who like to automatically spew that SOG's aren't a great stat. Yeah, there are individual games where a team takes a lot of shots from the perimeter and have less scoring chances than the team with less shots. But more often than not, the team with more shots got more shots because they controlled play more to get those shots. And when it happens regularly, it also means the opponent has the puck less of the time. So I agree with the assessment that a decrease in shot differential this year reflects the team isn't matching intensity of past years.
Nice job on this coach.
And I put more faith in SOG's than some who like to automatically spew that SOG's aren't a great stat. Yeah, there are individual games where a team takes a lot of shots from the perimeter and have less scoring chances than the team with less shots. But more often than not, the team with more shots got more shots because they controlled play more to get those shots. And when it happens regularly, it also means the opponent has the puck less of the time. So I agree with the assessment that a decrease in shot differential this year reflects the team isn't matching intensity of past years.
mnstate0fhockey
New member
Nice job on this coach.
Thanks Harley!!!
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
And I put more faith in SOG's than some who like to automatically spew that SOG's aren't a great stat. Yeah, there are individual games where a team takes a lot of shots from the perimeter and have less scoring chances than the team with less shots. But more often than not, the team with more shots got more shots because they controlled play more to get those shots. And when it happens regularly, it also means the opponent has the puck less of the time. So I agree with the assessment that a decrease in shot differential this year reflects the team isn't matching intensity of past years.
Nice job on this coach.
And I put more faith in SOG's than some who like to automatically spew that SOG's aren't a great stat. Yeah, there are individual games where a team takes a lot of shots from the perimeter and have less scoring chances than the team with less shots. But more often than not, the team with more shots got more shots because they controlled play more to get those shots. And when it happens regularly, it also means the opponent has the puck less of the time. So I agree with the assessment that a decrease in shot differential this year reflects the team isn't matching intensity of past years.
HarleyMC
Registered User
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Very true, and it's funny I basically wrote this same thing a few years ago and got flamed by Scooby for doing it.
I would add that usually at this level, an real impact player will avg. about 3-4 SOG/GP.
Another interesting stat is G/SOG, which although laden with some covariates, is a fair indicator of both positioning and shot accuracy. Connor Reilly has started every game, is tied with Kloos for total goals, and his G/SOG is a whooping 36%. Johnny Gaudreau led the nation in scoring last year and his was 22%. Problem is Connor's SOG/GP is about half of what it should be (19). This kid has sniper written all over him, but he's got to put more shots on net. BTW, everything you've been posting on the last two pages is coming out in twins dude...
Very true, and it's funny I basically wrote this same thing a few years ago and got flamed by Scooby for doing it.
I would add that usually at this level, an real impact player will avg. about 3-4 SOG/GP. Another interesting stat is G/SOG, which although laden with some covariates, is a fair indicator of both positioning and shot accuracy. Connor Reilly has started every game, is tied with Kloos for total goals, and his G/SOG is a whooping 36%. Johnny Gaudreau led the nation in scoring last year and his was 22%. Problem is Connor's SOG/GP is about half of what it should be (19). This kid has sniper written all over him, but he's got to put more shots on net. BTW, everything you've been posting on the last two pages is coming out in twins dude...
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
I'll echo that I view SOG as a fairly indicative stat for who is controlling play. There are always exceptions for individual games and individual teams (St. Cloud went a few years where they were quite good while routinely getting out shot, for example), but generally if a team wins the SOG battle consistently they are a team that controls the puck consistently.
My biggest gripe with the team thus far is twofold:
First, as Lucia has been preaching the past 4-5 weeks, there are not enough even strength goals.
But second, and I think more concerning, is that they are giving up too many goals; and especially so for our "top" line.
If you look at total pts-per-game they are actually ahead of their averages the last 2 seasons. If you look at actual goals-per-game they are .05/.06 behind (basically right in line with) the last 2 seasons. But if you look at defensive stats, goals allowed are up, PK% is down and +/- for some very key players is just not good.
Rau currently is even in the +/- and Fasching is a +2. The other one that really jumps out is C Reilly at a -3. These are concerning not just as statistics but because the numbers reinforce the perception I've had watching the team so far this year. Too many times Rau and Fasching have been on the ice for goals against, and too many times I have seen those guys reaching out, trying to catch or gain position on a player as that player deposits the puck in the back of the Gopher goal. Is it all on these 2 guys? No, absolutely not. They are being forced to cover up for some young/inexperienced defensive play that they weren't being forced to last season with guys like Parenteau and Holl in the line-up. But that doesn't change the reality of the situation that Rau's line has been struggling to cope defensively against the oppositions' top lines.
I'll echo that I view SOG as a fairly indicative stat for who is controlling play. There are always exceptions for individual games and individual teams (St. Cloud went a few years where they were quite good while routinely getting out shot, for example), but generally if a team wins the SOG battle consistently they are a team that controls the puck consistently.
My biggest gripe with the team thus far is twofold:
First, as Lucia has been preaching the past 4-5 weeks, there are not enough even strength goals.
But second, and I think more concerning, is that they are giving up too many goals; and especially so for our "top" line.
If you look at total pts-per-game they are actually ahead of their averages the last 2 seasons. If you look at actual goals-per-game they are .05/.06 behind (basically right in line with) the last 2 seasons. But if you look at defensive stats, goals allowed are up, PK% is down and +/- for some very key players is just not good.
Rau currently is even in the +/- and Fasching is a +2. The other one that really jumps out is C Reilly at a -3. These are concerning not just as statistics but because the numbers reinforce the perception I've had watching the team so far this year. Too many times Rau and Fasching have been on the ice for goals against, and too many times I have seen those guys reaching out, trying to catch or gain position on a player as that player deposits the puck in the back of the Gopher goal. Is it all on these 2 guys? No, absolutely not. They are being forced to cover up for some young/inexperienced defensive play that they weren't being forced to last season with guys like Parenteau and Holl in the line-up. But that doesn't change the reality of the situation that Rau's line has been struggling to cope defensively against the oppositions' top lines.
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
My Christmas wish? To see Boyd centering Rau and Fasching. I'm not expectant of seeing it, and I'm fully braced for the onslaught the suggestion is going to receive here on the forums. The 2 issues I see being raised are that it weakens the 3rd line and we need depth, and that "we want Rau at center."
I agree, it likely will weaken the 3rd line to a degree. But right now I'd prefer to see a couple dominant lines and the 3rd being more grindy rather than the current situation of both the 1st and 3rd lines struggling to gain any real traction.
As for thinking Rau brings more to the table at center than at wing, all I can say is hogwash. He played on the wing of Bjugstad for 2 years and put up very good numbers. Moving him back there relieves him of some of the defensive responsibilities that have been not just difficult for him this year but I think have also been more constraining this year. He's just not as free to "follow his nose" to the goal. The result being only 6 even strength points and only 2 even strength goals through 14 games; and his line still hasn't been that good defensively.
There have been other issues of course, some out of the team's control. Having Skjei out of the line-up so much, for example, has really hurt. Especially on the PK where the team has been having to rely too heavily on first year guys to carry a significant portion of that load. But it doesn't change that the Fashing-Rau-whoever line has been under performing.
My Christmas wish? To see Boyd centering Rau and Fasching. I'm not expectant of seeing it, and I'm fully braced for the onslaught the suggestion is going to receive here on the forums. The 2 issues I see being raised are that it weakens the 3rd line and we need depth, and that "we want Rau at center."
I agree, it likely will weaken the 3rd line to a degree. But right now I'd prefer to see a couple dominant lines and the 3rd being more grindy rather than the current situation of both the 1st and 3rd lines struggling to gain any real traction.
As for thinking Rau brings more to the table at center than at wing, all I can say is hogwash. He played on the wing of Bjugstad for 2 years and put up very good numbers. Moving him back there relieves him of some of the defensive responsibilities that have been not just difficult for him this year but I think have also been more constraining this year. He's just not as free to "follow his nose" to the goal. The result being only 6 even strength points and only 2 even strength goals through 14 games; and his line still hasn't been that good defensively.
There have been other issues of course, some out of the team's control. Having Skjei out of the line-up so much, for example, has really hurt. Especially on the PK where the team has been having to rely too heavily on first year guys to carry a significant portion of that load. But it doesn't change that the Fashing-Rau-whoever line has been under performing.
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Bristedt provides Gophers an international presence at WJC
http://www.startribune.com/video/286143221.html#hpmfv
Gophers' Ryan Collins competes for spot on U.S. National Junior Team
http://www.startribune.com/video/286143271.html?chan=video&pn=1
Bristedt provides Gophers an international presence at WJC
http://www.startribune.com/video/286143221.html#hpmfv
Gophers' Ryan Collins competes for spot on U.S. National Junior Team
http://www.startribune.com/video/286143271.html?chan=video&pn=1
HarleyMC
Registered User
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Rau's sweet spot has always been on the edge of the crease and as you pointed out he did very well on W with Bjugs. But Rau's numbers were basically the same at W as they have been at C, so I think that's a wash. The flip side is the 3rd line with Ambroz and C. Reilly needs a solid dig, setup, SOG and FO% workhorse guy @C like Boyd, so I can see a good argument there. The best C potential we've got are Rau, Kloos and Boyd. If Boyd is on 1st C with Rau on W, who would you put on 3rd C? Lettieri? Isackson? Lettieri has wheels, but I'd have questions about whether the real time line chemistry and his ability @ C w/ Ambroz and C. Reilly works. That may send them back to the marker board too often and yeah, weaken the 3rd. And Isackson...no. Then you gotta deal with the trickle down effect with Warning and Bristedt again.
Overall, I'm comfortable with the lines as they are now going forward. Let's see what happens. I think the 3rd line as it stands is poised for a 2nd half breakout. C. Reilly is finding his scoring niche, but needs more SOGs, I'm positive Ambroz is not happy with his 1st half performance and I expect him to step up...SOON and Boyd is a constant on that line...you know you're going to get a strong effort from him every night in all facets of his game.
I agree 5x5 has been a bit weak, and they've probably relied too much on their stellar PP this season for Gs. Gotta fix that... PK%? I'm not too worried about it. Over the past three seasons they've avg. 83%, and they're @ 82.5. If they shutdown the next 10 PPs, they're at 85% which is better than last season (84%). This team is not far off the mark from being dangerous.
Rau's sweet spot has always been on the edge of the crease and as you pointed out he did very well on W with Bjugs. But Rau's numbers were basically the same at W as they have been at C, so I think that's a wash. The flip side is the 3rd line with Ambroz and C. Reilly needs a solid dig, setup, SOG and FO% workhorse guy @C like Boyd, so I can see a good argument there. The best C potential we've got are Rau, Kloos and Boyd. If Boyd is on 1st C with Rau on W, who would you put on 3rd C? Lettieri? Isackson? Lettieri has wheels, but I'd have questions about whether the real time line chemistry and his ability @ C w/ Ambroz and C. Reilly works. That may send them back to the marker board too often and yeah, weaken the 3rd. And Isackson...no. Then you gotta deal with the trickle down effect with Warning and Bristedt again.
Overall, I'm comfortable with the lines as they are now going forward. Let's see what happens. I think the 3rd line as it stands is poised for a 2nd half breakout. C. Reilly is finding his scoring niche, but needs more SOGs, I'm positive Ambroz is not happy with his 1st half performance and I expect him to step up...SOON and Boyd is a constant on that line...you know you're going to get a strong effort from him every night in all facets of his game.
I agree 5x5 has been a bit weak, and they've probably relied too much on their stellar PP this season for Gs. Gotta fix that... PK%? I'm not too worried about it. Over the past three seasons they've avg. 83%, and they're @ 82.5. If they shutdown the next 10 PPs, they're at 85% which is better than last season (84%). This team is not far off the mark from being dangerous.
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Coming off a NCAA runner-up finish, and with most of their talent returning, I was certainly expecting more from this team than being "not far off the mark from being dangerous"! I'm pretty sure that if you asked the players if they're satisfied with their first-half performance and record the consensus would be no, they are not satisfied with either. While I am in no way panicking - there is plenty of season left to right the ship - I am definitely concerned that this team has issues. Maybe a little line tweaking would help some but, in my opinion, if they are to take the next step from being merely dangerous to dominating it will take more than that. What all that encompasses I'm not totally sure. The coaches will need to work on implementing whatever strategic changes need to be made, but the most important key to success the rest of the way will be for each and every player to commit to playing "Gopher Hockey" each and every game. By that I mean total commitment and effort, each and every shift. Yes, achieving that is all but impossible, but that's what they need to strive for...consistently every game, no matter who the opponent is. I know, sounds corny and maybe not realistic, but with this team and all the talent (how many NHL draft choices?) that's the key for this team to becoming more than just "dangerous".
Merry Christmas everyone.
Coming off a NCAA runner-up finish, and with most of their talent returning, I was certainly expecting more from this team than being "not far off the mark from being dangerous"! I'm pretty sure that if you asked the players if they're satisfied with their first-half performance and record the consensus would be no, they are not satisfied with either. While I am in no way panicking - there is plenty of season left to right the ship - I am definitely concerned that this team has issues. Maybe a little line tweaking would help some but, in my opinion, if they are to take the next step from being merely dangerous to dominating it will take more than that. What all that encompasses I'm not totally sure. The coaches will need to work on implementing whatever strategic changes need to be made, but the most important key to success the rest of the way will be for each and every player to commit to playing "Gopher Hockey" each and every game. By that I mean total commitment and effort, each and every shift. Yes, achieving that is all but impossible, but that's what they need to strive for...consistently every game, no matter who the opponent is. I know, sounds corny and maybe not realistic, but with this team and all the talent (how many NHL draft choices?) that's the key for this team to becoming more than just "dangerous".
Merry Christmas everyone.
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Mid year polls from last week: http://q30television.com/2014/12/17...ssion-of-college-hockey-mid-year-polls-12814/
Mid year polls from last week: http://q30television.com/2014/12/17...ssion-of-college-hockey-mid-year-polls-12814/
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Fasching and Collins survive the first U.S. World Juniors cut following the team's 5-2 win over No. 1 BU this evening. Three players, including Wisconsin's Jack Dougherty, weren't so lucky.
http://worldjuniors.usahockey.com/news_article/show/459176?referrer_id=701370
Fasching and Collins survive the first U.S. World Juniors cut following the team's 5-2 win over No. 1 BU this evening. Three players, including Wisconsin's Jack Dougherty, weren't so lucky.
http://worldjuniors.usahockey.com/news_article/show/459176?referrer_id=701370
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Swede Leon Bristedt helps Gophers teammates prepare for World Junior Championship + video
http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/286162061.html
Swede Leon Bristedt helps Gophers teammates prepare for World Junior Championship + video
http://www.startribune.com/sports/blogs/286162061.html
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
But less shame than losing to the U18 Ann Arbor team!
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
Might have had something to do with Eichel U playing against Eichel instead of with him though.....
Might have had something to do with Eichel U playing against Eichel instead of with him though.....
Re: Minnesota Gophers Season Thread: 2014-2015
I don't really disagree with any of that. That being said, the point I'm trying to make is that it seems the C position this year has a little more slack to pick up than it did last year. The result being that, 5x5, the slack isn't being fully picked up while at the same time the attempt to pick it up is causing a less effective offensive presence (5x5).
As for who would play C on the 3rd line...that's a legitimate question, and one I couldn't give a good answer to. I think there are a few guys who could possibly fill that role, but it would probably take a little time to figure out and develop. And maybe it never would completely. At the end of the day, though, I'd rather see a really dominating line rather than 1 good line (Warning/Kloos/Cammarata) and a couple meh lines (again, considering 5x5).
But it's not like the 3rd line has done a whole lot anyway...5x5 Boyd has a total of 2 pts (both assists) and 1 of them came when he was playing with the 4th line. Ambroz has 2 pts in 7 games with Boyd and 2 pts in 7 games without Boyd.
As I said before, I don't really expect it to happen. Primarily because I think Lucia prefers to build a team around depth and is willing to take some lumps while trying to develop that depth.
But it's still my Christmas wish.
I don't really disagree with any of that. That being said, the point I'm trying to make is that it seems the C position this year has a little more slack to pick up than it did last year. The result being that, 5x5, the slack isn't being fully picked up while at the same time the attempt to pick it up is causing a less effective offensive presence (5x5).
As for who would play C on the 3rd line...that's a legitimate question, and one I couldn't give a good answer to. I think there are a few guys who could possibly fill that role, but it would probably take a little time to figure out and develop. And maybe it never would completely. At the end of the day, though, I'd rather see a really dominating line rather than 1 good line (Warning/Kloos/Cammarata) and a couple meh lines (again, considering 5x5).
But it's not like the 3rd line has done a whole lot anyway...5x5 Boyd has a total of 2 pts (both assists) and 1 of them came when he was playing with the 4th line. Ambroz has 2 pts in 7 games with Boyd and 2 pts in 7 games without Boyd.
As I said before, I don't really expect it to happen. Primarily because I think Lucia prefers to build a team around depth and is willing to take some lumps while trying to develop that depth.
But it's still my Christmas wish.
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