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Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

I understand it's mostly a pride thing. I just think if someone is in the discussion to go in the first round for years and then falls off, it means something has happened with his development. There are first rounders that are brutal in college like White and Fischer and guys like Connolly that are beasts. What I would like to see is the average number of years they stay and the impact each year they attend for first rounders vs. 2nd rounders vs. 3rd, etc. before I say first rounders don't have a bigger impact.
 
Bonin21 said:
I understand it's mostly a pride thing. I just think if someone is in the discussion to go in the first round for years and then falls off, it means something has happened with his development.
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Because why? What the NHL judges for value is different than college. Not to mention the reality that the NHL has generally undervalued players that aren't big in stature whereas those are some of the most valuable guys in college.

What I would like to see is the average number of years they stay and the impact each year they attend for first rounders vs. 2nd rounders vs. 3rd, etc. before I say first rounders don't have a bigger impact.
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And what's "bigger impact" considered? Because the last I checked, we are trying to win as a team... not worry about individual accolades, etc.

IMO, fans that dwell a lot on the draft stuff to judge college value have it completely backwards in the end. Not saying I'm not happy for guys that get drafted high but the reality is it doesn't guarantee anything from a team perspective. Which is ultimately what should matter for a college fan. Team
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

I think a key point is you have to look at the competitive environment that NHL scouts, coaches and owners are using as a basis for player assessments. Novak's, Gates', and Zuhlsdorf's recent scouting data is based primary upon their USHL performance; Sadek's at Lakeville North HS in a Mpls. south suburban high school conference. NHL teams pump out reams of inferential statistics to analyze player performance and predictability using regression and logistic analysis. However, these procedures are based upon sampling data that is not externally valid in the D1 college hockey environment.

As we witness season after season, player performance between the USHL/HS and D1 college hockey is NOT highly correlated, and as I determined last season, at some point they may be NEGATIVELY correlated (i.e. Cammarata). Statistically, most drafted players regress, lower drafted and undrafted players sometimes exceed expectations, but only a few truly live up to the hype of being a high NHL draft pick (i.e. Vanek, Kessel). The NHL draft is not a significant predictor of success at the D1 level.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Success being points? Total points in a career? Average points per year?

What is the most significant predictor? Or one that is known to be a better predictor?
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Bonin21 said:
Success being points? Total points in a career? Average points per year?

What is the most significant predictor? Or one that is known to be a better predictor?
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Good questions. I've yet to see a quantitative research study that defines and measures the construct "success" in D1 based upon a player's NHL draft selection. I apologize as this is a bit technical for USCHO, but if I was to conduct a study like this I'd use a multivariate multiple regression model and define the construct validity of "success" based upon mean scores of D1 career goals, PP goals and total points as independent variables. The NHL draft rounds are multi-level categorical variables and would need to be represented as dichotomous dummy coded variables to compare multiple dependent variables based upon players draft rounds. Then we could determine "IF" a statistically significant measure of predictability exists and which draft round is projected to perform the best.

The problem with regression analysis using sports performance data are the caveats involved in satisfying model assumptions: 1) the predictors have to be linearly independent, which some variables are clearly not and can sometimes be expressed as a linear combination of for example, team composition, line composition, conference/non-conf. play, etc., 2) the error variance has to be consistent across variables, and 3) it's important to define and control for covariates (injuries, playing time, etc.). If any of these are violated, the regression procedure is still fairly robust, but will sometimes yield unreliable results in terms of causality. The sample population would have to be quite large for a normal distribution and a suggested effect size of .80 to increase the internal and conclusion validity of the study. This could be a research study for someone's doctoral dissertation, it's got some interesting complexity to it. I would be interested in tackling it if I had more time. :)
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Added a Physical D man. Curtis Simonson formerly of Grand Rapids and playing in NAHL.

The 2013 graduate of Grand Rapids High School announced via his personal Facebook page Tuesday that he has committed to play college hockey for the University of Minnesota. The 6-foot-2, 205 pound defenseman played two years in the North American Hockey League following high school.



Simonson played in 61 games over three years for the Thunderhawks. He amassed six goals and 22 assists for 28 career points. Simonson, known for his bruising style of defense, had a nice senior season where he scored one goal and tacked on 11 assists. Grand Rapids made it to the section final that season before losing 4-3 to Duluth East.



Former Grand Rapids player and current University of Minnesota head coach Don Lucia needed to add a defenseman to his recruiting list and clearly wanted a skater with good size and strength. Simonson has put together a pair of nice seasons in the NAHL, which is a league that Lucia has been more apt to sign players from in recent seasons. Players from the NAHL tend to be older when they come in as freshman and often play a more physical brand of hockey.
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http://grhshockey.com/teams/default.asp?u=GRHSHOCKEY&s=hockey&p=newsstory&newsID=35710
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Wonder how closely they are looking at Gavin Hain?
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Koho said:
Added a Physical D man. Curtis Simonson formerly of Grand Rapids and playing in NAHL.
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Lucia is drinkin' the NAHL Kool Aid again? ;) Last season, Brady Skjei delivered some crushing hits on the glass. Simonson sounds like a solid D who likes to do the same.
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Bonin21 said:
I don't see him playing much.
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You'll likely be right (though who knows with injury possibilities). The reality is they have a lot of D-men in the pipeline over the course of the next few seasons and they weren't going to be able to justify going out and spending scholarship on a depth D-man for the short term.
 
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Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Hammy said:
You'll likely be right (though who knows with injury possibilities). The reality is they have a lot of D-men in the pipeline over the course of the next few seasons and they weren't going to be able to justify going out and spending scholarship on a depth D-man for the short term.
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Odds are against him playing much. (Never bad to have a good-skating physical D on the bench.) Then again, you never know. I remember a guy named Stu Bickel brought in at an older age to fill a spot......
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Koho said:
Odds are against him playing much. (Never bad to have a good-skating physical D on the bench.) Then again, you never know. I remember a guy named Stu Bickel brought in at an older age to fill a spot......
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Bickel was brought in under much more favorable playing circumstances though. The D was thin that year and Bickel was brought in to play right away (we only had 7 defense that year and Schack was clearly the 7th guy). But it does help to have some depth protection with an older guy that can play with a D first mindset.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Hammy said:
Bickel was brought in under much more favorable playing circumstances though. The D was thin that year and Bickel was brought in to play right away (we only had 7 defense that year and Schack was clearly the 7th guy). But it does help to have some depth protection with an older guy that can play with a D first mindset.
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Wasn't saying the circumstances were similar, just that expectations for an older Bickel weren't very high either and he turned out to be a pretty good addition (better than I am guessing any fans expected). The unpredictability of players shouldn't cause anyone to write Simonson off as automatically riding pine. Could get lucky with him.
 
Re: Minnesota Gophers Off Season Thread 2015

Koho said:
Wasn't saying the circumstances were similar, just that expectations for an older Bickel weren't very high either and he turned out to be a pretty good addition (better than I am guessing any fans expected). The unpredictability of players shouldn't cause anyone to write Simonson off as automatically riding pine. Could get lucky with him.
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My concern about Simonson is he accumulated 116 min. of PIM last season with a +/- of -13. A lot of NAHL teams had guys in that PIM range, but positive in the +/- category. In recent years, Lucia has tended to add an "enforcer" role (i.e. Helgeson), but not at the expense of good defensive play. He might be a gritty player, but he doesn't land a lot of SOG and will need to tighten up his positioning in the D zone. There's always that element of surprise with incoming freshman, but I think it will be a learning curve with limited ice time for Curtis next season.
 
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