Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

[Gurtholfin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Interesting finish for possible playoff locations for the Gophers. The Gopher game on Sunday afternoon is basically meaningless, except to prepare for the playoffs. With UAA winning over UMD tonight (3-2), and SCSU losing to MSUM (4-2), the Gophers could travel to UND, SCSU or UMD. In the event of a three way tie, UND goes to third place, SCSU fourth and UMD slides to fifth. If SCSU beats MSUM tomorrow night for third place (likely), and UND beats MTU (very likely), the Gophers will battle in WrestleMania at tBunker.

As someone who doesn't like, okay hates, both of your teams, THAT would be an epic first round playoff series. I'm sure it's not your first choice of opponents or venues, but oh man.

Unfortunately I will be at the KC on Friday watching us beat up on UAA or MSU and out of town on Saturday. I would LOVE to be able to watch that series as an impartial observer.

And Lucia's daughter, while not the best at her craft, is kinda cute.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

As someone who doesn't like, okay hates, both of your teams, THAT would be an epic first round playoff series. I'm sure it's not your first choice of opponents or venues, but oh man.

Unfortunately I will be at the KC on Friday watching us beat up on UAA or MSU and out of town on Saturday. I would LOVE to be able to watch that series as an impartial observer.

And Lucia's daughter, while not the best at her craft, is kinda cute.

For me, I'd rather see a Gopher/Sioux matchup simply because it's raw. Going to GF is tough but hey if we're going down, let's go down with guns blazing in a rival series to the death.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

For me, I'd rather see a Gopher/Sioux matchup simply because it's raw. Going to GF is tough but hey if we're going down, let's go down with guns blazing in a rival series to the death.

That's the spirit!

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

In the event of a three way tie, UND goes to third place, SCSU fourth and UMD slides to fifth.

A three-way tie would give you:
#3 UMD 16-11-1 (0-1-1 v SCSU, 1-3 v UND)
#4 UND 15-10-3 (3-1 v UMD, 2-2 v SCSU)
#5 SCSU 15-10-3 (1-0-1 v UMD, 2-2 v UND)

UND wins the tiebreaker vs each team individually, but in a three-way tie, you can't use H2H as the first criteria if the teams didn't all play each other an equal number of times. UND played both four times, but UMD and SCSU only played twice. Next criteria is wins, and UMD has the most which breaks the three-way tie in their favor. UND wins the tiebreaker with SCSU due to goal differential, so they'd be 4th and ScSU would be 5th (H2H games were split, and their win totals would be identical).

Here are the other scenarios and where the teams will end up as a result:

SCSU 3rd if: SCSU wins or ties -or- UND doesn't beat Tech.
SCSU 4th if: SCSU loses, UND wins, and UMD loses or ties.
SCSU 5th if: SCSU loses and UND/UMD both win.

UND 3rd if: UND wins, SCSU loses, and UMD loses or ties.
UND 4th if: outcome matches/exceeds the UMD outcome (UND 4th in a 3-way tie, UND 4th if UND/UMD finish behind SCSU tied). Exception is the 3rd place scenario.
UND 5th if: UND loses and UMD ties or wins -or- UND ties and UMD wins.

UMD 3rd if: SCSU loses, and UMD/UND both win.
UMD 4th if: UMD wins / UND loses or ties -or- UMD ties / UND loses.
UMD 5th if: UMD ties / UND wins or UMD loses / UND ties or wins.

I think that covered everything.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

A three-way tie would give you:
#3 UMD 16-11-1 (0-1-1 v SCSU, 1-3 v UND)
#4 UND 15-10-3 (3-1 v UMD, 2-2 v SCSU)
#5 SCSU 15-10-3 (1-0-1 v UMD, 2-2 v UND)

UND wins the tiebreaker vs each team individually, but in a three-way tie, you can't use H2H as the first criteria if the teams didn't all play each other an equal number of times. UND played both four times, but UMD and SCSU only played twice. Next criteria is wins, and UMD has the most which breaks the three-way tie in their favor. UND wins the tiebreaker with SCSU due to goal differential, so they'd be 4th and ScSU would be 5th (H2H games were split, and their win totals would be identical).

Here are the other scenarios and where the teams will end up as a result:

SCSU 3rd if: SCSU wins or ties -or- UND doesn't beat Tech.
SCSU 4th if: SCSU loses, UND wins, and UMD loses or ties.
SCSU 5th if: SCSU loses and UND/UMD both win.

UND 3rd if: UND wins, SCSU loses, and UMD loses or ties.
UND 4th if: UND wins, SCSU loses, and UMD wins.
UND 5th if: UND loses and UMD ties or wins -or- UND ties and UMD wins.

UMD 3rd if: SCSU loses, and UMD/UND both win.
UMD 4th if: UMD wins / UND loses or ties -or- UMD ties / UND loses.
UMD 5th if: UMD ties / UND wins or UMD loses / UND ties or wins.

I think that covered everything.

Good job on the breakdown Bak. Interesting, I didn't know about the H2H rule in the three way tie. Nevertheless, it's unlikely a three way tie will happen tomorrow night. Barring a catastrophic upset, UND will beat MTU, and there's a very good chance SCSU at home beats MSUM for the split. That puts us in GF.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I'm bored so I will attempt some crazy math combined with some assumptions about the outcomes of the finales...

Probabilities (off the cuff guesses):
UND wins: 0.8; UND ties: 0.1; UND loses: 0.1
SCSU wins: 0.65; SCSU ties: 0.1; SCSU loses: 0.25
UMD wins: 0.5; UMD ties: 0.05; UMD loses: 0.45

So the UND finishes 3rd scenario would look like this:
(SCSU loses)(UND wins)(UMD loses or ties)
0.25x0.8x0.5 = 0.1 (10%) ... sounds about right.
UMD's 3rd place calculation is exactly the same (chance of UMD winning is equal to them losing or tying in my mind), so again, 10% chance, which means there's an 80% chance of SCSU finishing 3rd - again, plausible. Since the three-way tie scenario is the only one in which SCSU can finish 5th, the chance of that is also 10%.

So far, we have 3rd: SCSU 80%, UND 10%, UMD 10% and 5th: SCSU 10%.

5th place scenarios for UND - inapplicable if UND wins. Only if they tie and UMD wins or if they lose and UMD wins or ties do they finish 5th. Pretty straightforward calculation:
(UND loss)(UMD win) + (UND tie)(UMD win) + (UND loss)(UMD tie)
0.1x0.5 + 0.1x0.5 + 0.1x0.05 = 0.105 (10.5%)

So now:
3rd: SCSU 80%, UND 10%, UMD 10%
4th: SCSU 10%, UND 79.5%, UMD 10.5%
5th: SCSU 10%, UND 10.5%, UMD 79.5%

4th can be figured out based on their probabilities of finishing 3rd or 5th and subtracting that from 1.

So there you have it: there's ~80% chance of MN going to Grand Forks.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

The team has been shut out 5 times this year and scored only 1 goal in 5 games.

I looked some more. 6 games with two goals or less and only one win in those games.

That's 1-15 when scoring 2 goals or less.

When scoring 3 or more the Gophers are 15-2-2.

9 of those games they scored 4 goals or more and the Gophers are 9-0 in those 9.

The NCAA winner every year scores about 4 goals a game and gives up about 2.

Updated.

 

[brianvf]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

A three-way tie would give you:
#3 UMD 16-11-1 (0-1-1 v SCSU, 1-3 v UND)
#4 UND 15-10-3 (3-1 v UMD, 2-2 v SCSU)
#5 SCSU 15-10-3 (1-0-1 v UMD, 2-2 v UND)

UND wins the tiebreaker vs each team individually, but in a three-way tie, you can't use H2H as the first criteria if the teams didn't all play each other an equal number of times. UND played both four times, but UMD and SCSU only played twice. Next criteria is wins, and UMD has the most which breaks the three-way tie in their favor. UND wins the tiebreaker with SCSU due to goal differential, so they'd be 4th and ScSU would be 5th (H2H games were split, and their win totals would be identical).

That appears to be incorrect. Brad Schlossman of the Herald asked the WCHA, and they replied with this:

I have confirmed this through the league office. Straight from the WCHA:

"UMD drops out in three-way tie between SCSU, UND and UMD. (UND was 3-1 vs UMD, SCSU was 1-0-1). Then matchup goes between SCSU and UND. Tied head to head 2-2. Tied at 15 wins. UND outscored SCSU 17-10 in four-game series."

So, if I'm reading that correctly, it would be UND #3, SCSU #4, and UMD #5.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

That appears to be incorrect. Brad Schlossman of the Herald asked the WCHA, and they replied with this:

Strange. I remember reading when > 2 teams are tied, they need to play an equal number of games (4x each) in order to use the H2H as a comparison. The reason for that would be the disadvantage a team would have if they only played one of the other teams on the road.

For example, if team A hosted team B and C, and team B and C played each other four times, team A would have a huge advantage getting both on home ice only.

In any case, I doubt we will see a three-way tie (have we ever seen one?).

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

In any case, I doubt we will see a three-way tie (have we ever seen one?).

Back in '01-'02 there was a three way tie for 6th I believe.

Also, there was a four way tie for 7th back in the 70s.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Impressive win (gift?) for the Gophers on Senior day. Congratulations to the seniors. Lucia and Carman played well, even Flynn blew off a season of frustration. It's been a tough season for the seniors but good to see them finish off on a positive note (4-2/6G) going into tBunker...

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

The team has been shut out 5 times this year and scored only 1 goal in 5 games.

I looked some more. 6 games with two goals or less and only one win in those games.

That's 1-15 when scoring 2 goals or less.

When scoring 3 or more the Gophers are 16-2-2.

10 of those games they scored 4 goals or more and the Gophers are 10-0 in those 10.

The NCAA winner every year scores about 4 goals a game and gives up about 2.

Updated.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

So, I was with some non-board friends tonight (yes, I actually have those! ) and while talking with one of them, well, I dunno how I should put this, but the Curse Of The Seawolf ends after this season, no matter what happens with the team, per the info I got.

I really hope this is true. I have no reason to doubt this source.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

So, I was with some non-board friends tonight (yes, I actually have those! ) and while talking with one of them, well, I dunno how I should put this, but the Curse Of The Seawolf ends after this season, no matter what happens with the team, per the info I got.

I really hope this is true. I have no reason to doubt this source.

IMO it's long overdue if it happens.

I was holding out hope for a better game by the Gophs tonight given what is at stake. The Gopher turnover a minute or so into the 1st and then the lack of energy and intensity basically ended the game in the opening period. The Gophers have been pathetic this year trailing after one (1-10-1). I really hope they avoid a sweep but it doesn't look good.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Is there a more mentally fragile team in the country? Throw a little adversity at them, and they fold faster than *'ing superman at a laundromat.

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Is there a more mentally fragile team in the country? Throw a little adversity at them, and they fold faster than *'ing superman at a laundromat.

Indeed. They had pretty good jump for the first 90 seconds. Then that goal happens, and they fold. 58 and a half minutes left and they fold.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Is there a more mentally fragile team in the country? Throw a little adversity at them, and they fold faster than *'ing superman at a laundromat.

I'd say AIC has a huge edge over them in that dept.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Historical context: the last time MN had more than three consecutive mediocre seasons (near or below .500) was in the late '40s-early '50s. If next season is anything like the last three, we'll be witnessing a low point not seen in many of our lifetimes.

 

[Driftryder]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Is there a more mentally fragile team in the country? Throw a little adversity at them, and they fold faster than *'ing superman at a laundromat.

Nope. Wooger was talking about this a few times last night about how they play differently after getting down by just one goal. I saw more heart and toughness out of New Ulm High School even while getting thrashed by Breck 11-1 in the state tourney the other day.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

The ability to come back from a two goal deficit has been a struggle for them throughout the season. They don't seem to have the confidence, tenacity and perseverance to close the gap when down by a couple goals. In my view, that has a lot to do with not having true natural goal scorers, good team chemistry and inspiring leadership (seniors and coaches). It's been said before, but there are inherent disconnects between leadership and players, players and players, and on an individual level there are no standout players that have enough talent and intuitive strength and leadership vision to single handedly motivate the team as in the past.

I was surprised that Schroeder's play was not more dynamic in a high profile rivalry series like this. Without Schroeder's game in top form that seems to affect Jacob Cepis' ability to score, as he has seemingly disappeared after his first couple of good games. I have to give credit to UND they played good defense and limited scoring chances (Gophers helped limiting their own too ).

It certainly seems that some type of coaching change is in the air for next season. Nevertheless, if they can come out tonight with renewed vigor, intensity, and a team effort they may even make a series out of this. Even though it's still a long shot there's still a small sliver of hope. But looking at some of the negative posts, there's not too many foolhardy Gopher fans that want to join me. C'mon Gopher fans!