Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

[Koho]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Cheerleading was invented at Minnesota, so I say we keep them.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheerleading

I second that vote. (I saw a few on camera this weekend I wouldn't throw back.)

 

[state of hockey]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Gopher recruit midterm NHL rankings:

12 BJUGSTAD, NICK BLAINE HIGH-MN 6' 3.75" 188 C
36 GARDINER, MAX MINNETONKA HIGH-MN 6' 2.5" 176 C
37 ALT, MARK CRETIN-DERHAM HIGH-MN 6' 3" 199 D
112 ISACKSON, CHRISTIAN ST. THOMAS HIGH-MN 5' 11.75" 174 RW
201 MARSHALL, BENJAMIN MAHTOMEDI HIGH-MN 5' 8.5" 160 D

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I second that vote. (I saw a few on camera this weekend I wouldn't throw back.)

I, on the other hand was in St. Cloud, and I think they should run some FEA on their cheerleaders' skate blades, because I doubt they have a safety factor much higher than 1. Somehow thunderthighs got bigger.

Gopher recruit midterm NHL rankings:

I saw Bjugstad play a couple weeks ago and he is a stud. He is big, he is fast and he can score.

 

[brianvf]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

She is big, she is fast and she can score.

FYP for a typical SCSU female student.

 

[MinnesotaNorthStar]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I second that vote. (I saw a few on camera this weekend I wouldn't throw back.)

Thirded.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

The three teams that have the highest second half SOS are: 1) Gophers, 2) CC, and 3) UND. CC seems like the team to watch to help the Gophers (provided they win most of their games) because of their SOS, faltering lately at 2-5-2 in their last 9 games and an important series this weekend with UW at home.

Provided the Gophers can win 10/14 (71%) of their remaining games (UAA/split and 3 losses out of 12 to remaining TUC teams, final record of 16-11-1) or better, there is a chance they can secure home ice advantage as a #4 or #5 seed, but will need a lot of help from other teams like CC. Ties of future unplayed games are not considered-too complicated.

If the Gophers are going to somehow manage home ice for the first round, I believe it will be to the detriment of CC and SCSU, POSSIBLY UND. I told my dad heading into last weekend (prior to the Tigers being swept by UMD) that I thought CC would struggle to be .500 over the last portion of the season.

I also don't know if the Gophers have to do as well as you are stating to creep into home ice. Certainly, it will help secure things a bit more. But a little bit of a falter from a couple teams ahead of the Gophers, as well as big weekends by the Gophers against those teams, could shake things up quite a bit. So that being said, I think the most important weekends for MN to put things together are the ones against CC and SCSU (and this coming weekend wouldn't hurt either).

At this point, I'm just hoping the Gophers do well enough to hit the play-offs in position to combine a bit of luck with a strong WCHA tournament in order to nab a 4 seed (of course they could always just run the WCHA Tournament for the auto-bid, too )

wow, I suck at quoting

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

. Somehow thunderthighs got bigger.

No. *ing. Way. (I have a pic of the squad from last year).

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

No. *ing. Way. (I have a pic of the squad from last year).

Ask MNS or BPH, we had a conversation about it.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Ask MNS or BPH, we had a conversation about it.

Wow. I'm speechless.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Wow. I'm speechless.

Lets just say that she should have stayed away from Val's a little more last semester.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Lets just say that she should have stayed away from Val's a little more last semester.

The funniest thing was, last year, they insisted on sticking her next to the smallest cheerleader they had!

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

If the Gophers are going to somehow manage home ice for the first round, I believe it will be to the detriment of CC and SCSU, POSSIBLY UND. I told my dad heading into last weekend (prior to the Tigers being swept by UMD) that I thought CC would struggle to be .500 over the last portion of the season.

I also don't know if the Gophers have to do as well as you are stating to creep into home ice. Certainly, it will help secure things a bit more. But a little bit of a falter from a couple teams ahead of the Gophers, as well as big weekends by the Gophers against those teams, could shake things up quite a bit. So that being said, I think the most important weekends for MN to put things together are the ones against CC and SCSU (and this coming weekend wouldn't hurt either).

At this point, I'm just hoping the Gophers do well enough to hit the play-offs in position to combine a bit of luck with a strong WCHA tournament in order to nab a 4 seed (of course they could always just run the WCHA Tournament for the auto-bid, too )

wow, I suck at quoting

SCSU has the same SOS as Denver for the second half which is 8th out of the 10 teams in the WCHA. SCSU has only 12 remaining games against WCHA opponents and 3 of those are against below .500 teams.

I actually picked SCSU as a darkhorse this year in the WCHA, so we'll see how that turns out. Barring a meltdown by SCSU (could happen ) it's more likely that CC (possibly UND as well-3rd SOS) which has the 2nd highest SOS has the highest probability of helping the Gophers, if they can get their act together asap.

The Gophers for the remainder of the season control their own destiny for #4 or #5 seed if the win 12/14 or more. Even winning 11/14 won't buy them home ice because they've dug themselves too deep of a hole and will need help from other teams. However, it's a bit too early yet to know for certain and there are so many scenarios that may happen it's difficult to accurately and statistically predict how teams will finish and I haven't included ties in mix either.

One thing is certain though, currently at 25 in the PWR and with their SOS, it's going to be very difficult for the Gophers to make the NCAAs at this point unless they play flawless hockey against TUCs the remainder of the season and get help from other teams.

Based on 1st half play, the probability of the Gophers of winning the F5 and getting an autobid is less than 10%.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

The funniest thing was, last year, they insisted on sticking her next to the smallest cheerleader they had!

Do I even want to know...?

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

SCSU has the same SOS as Denver for the second half which is 8th out of the 10 teams in the WCHA. SCSU has only 12 remaining games against WCHA opponents and 3 of those are against below .500 teams.

I actually picked SCSU as a darkhorse this year in the WCHA, so we'll see how that turns out. Barring a meltdown by SCSU (could happen ) it's more likely that CC (possibly UND as well-3rd SOS) which has the 2nd highest SOS has the highest probability of helping the Gophers, if they can get their act together asap.

The Gophers for the remainder of the season control their own destiny for #4 or #5 seed if the win 12/14 or more. Even winning 11/14 won't buy them home ice because they've dug themselves too deep of a hole and will need help from other teams. However, it's a bit too early yet to know for certain and there are so many scenarios that may happen it's difficult to accurately and statistically predict how teams will finish and I haven't included ties in mix either.

One thing is certain though, currently at 25 in the PWR and with their SOS, it's going to be very difficult for the Gophers to make the NCAAs at this point unless they play flawless hockey against TUCs the remainder of the season and get help from other teams.

Based on 1st half play, the probability of the Gophers of winning the F5 and getting an autobid is less than 10%.

Considering there are 6 teams in the league capable of sweeping the other top 5 on any given weekend, I don't put too much stock in strength of schedule. Throw in the Gophers and MSU as teams that can take games from anyone on any given night, as well as UAA as being far from an easy 4 points, and the remaining schedule doesn't mean all that much as to how the standings will actually play out.

Personally, I think UW and DU (perhaps UMD) are going to start pulling away at the top of the conference, and its going to be a slug-fest where anything can happen between UND, SCSU, CC, and MN for those last home ice spots.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Considering there are 6 teams in the league capable of sweeping the other top 5 on any given weekend, I don't put too much stock in strength of schedule. Throw in the Gophers and MSU as teams that can take games from anyone on any given night, as well as UAA as being far from an easy 4 points, and the remaining schedule doesn't mean all that much as to how the standings will actually play out.

That's assuming a lot. Obviously there are many unknown variables in future outcomes of college hockey games down the stretch, but I'm looking at the standings and playoff picture from purely a statistical perspective only at this point. MSUM have only swept once (MTU) and the Gophers have two (UAA and MTU) this season. Based on what they've done so far, they are hardly capable of easily taking games on any given night, much less a sweep (unless they do a 180). Considering SOS, relative team strengths, 1st half play and barring a miracle finish, MSUM does not have a chance for home ice at all. UAA could be a spoiler, but will most likely finish 9th in the WCHA.

Personally, I think UW and DU (perhaps UMD) are going to start pulling away at the top of the conference, and its going to be a slug-fest where anything can happen between UND, SCSU, CC, and MN for those last home ice spots.

I agree, but going forward based on SOS, team strength and weaknesses, and recent performance, out of the remaining 4 you mentioned SCSU and UND have the highest statistical probability of nailing down the #4 and #5 seed respectively, barring a meltdown. CC is a close 3rd and MN a relatively distant 4th. The CC/UW series this weekend is the second most important series with standings and playoff implications behind MN/UND.

I think most fans would probably be expecting a Sioux/Gopher split. A Gopher split this weekend slightly increases the probability that they will finish 7th. However, a sweep by UND greatly decreases the probability of the Gophers landing any higher than 7th, and it would also make it relatively impossible for an NCAA bid w/o winning the F5. I'm not trying to sound overly pessimistic here (See Scooby), but a sweep basically ends the Gophers playoff hopes of home ice and an NCAA berth, period, unless they win the F5 and the probability of that happening after a sweep is <7%. Statistically speaking, the Gophers have their backs against the wall and are hanging by a virtual thread going into every series this half starting this weekend.

 

[The Rube]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

Do I even want to know...?

No.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I thought I'd condense our conversations by bringing over the one from the UND-MN Series thread

IMO Ness has not been spectacular this year. I question Lucia's decision to allow him to accelerate into the program when he should have spent at least a year in the USHL to develop his skills and physical stature. He simply does not have the physical prowess necessary to be a high impact defensivemen in this league right now. Fairchild IMO is the defensive catalyst on the team and he is struggling this year..

Ness hasn't been "spectacular." But good defensemen often aren't; they are solid. I think Ness has been the best guy we've had on the defensive side of the puck. Like I said, he is always in position, he is a fantastic skater and can stay with anyone, and he makes good decisions with the puck. Not flashy, spectacular plays, but good decisions that maintain possession and territory. Yeah, he is small, but he does well to play positional hockey to mitigate that. I think Ness's age and inexperience was evident last season, but I don't see that being the case this year.

Fairchild definitely brings a lot to the table in terms of what he can do with the puck, but he makes so many mistakes on the defensive side.

That's assuming a lot. Obviously there are many unknown variables in future outcomes of college hockey games down the stretch, but I'm looking at the standings and playoff picture from purely a statistical perspective only at this point. MSUM have only swept once (MTU) and the Gophers have two (UAA and MTU) this season. Based on what they've done so far, they are hardly capable of easily taking games on any given night, much less a sweep (unless they do a 180). Considering SOS, relative team strengths, 1st half play and barring a miracle finish, MSUM does not have a chance for home ice at all. UAA could be a spoiler, but will most likely finish 9th in the WCHA.

I don't think it's assuming anything, which is kind of the point. Trying to predict the standings using probability equations in a league where the teams are so close just doesn't work too well. Whatever the odds say, I will bet the farm that they don't match how the standings will finally look.
As for your statement that MN and MSU aren't capable of taking games, well...they each are at .500 right now, so they can obviously win. And I agree, MSU will almost certainly not get home ice, and UAA will almost certainly finish in 9th. But that doesn't mean they are easy teams to sweep. Just ask DU.
My point is, if any team takes a night off in this league, they will probably get beat (unless they are playing Tech ) That's a hard thing to predict based on numbers.


And I agree, if the Gophers get swept this weekend, stick a fork in them. This team NEEDS at the very least 2 pts against UND, and really I think 3pts is kind of the minimum in order to gain even a little bit of ground in the standings.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

I thought I'd condense our conversations by bringing over the one from the UND-MN Series thread

Ness hasn't been "spectacular." But good defensemen often aren't; they are solid. I think Ness has been the best guy we've had on the defensive side of the puck. Like I said, he is always in position, he is a fantastic skater and can stay with anyone, and he makes good decisions with the puck. Not flashy, spectacular plays, but good decisions that maintain possession and territory. Yeah, he is small, but he does well to play positional hockey to mitigate that. I think Ness's age and inexperience was evident last season, but I don't see that being the case this year.

Fairchild definitely brings a lot to the table in terms of what he can do with the puck, but he makes so many mistakes on the defensive side.

Continued... I'm ok with Ness and the basics that he is able to handle at this point and he is a skilled player. That should be expected from a second year player if he consistently plays back line for the Gophers, otherwise he should sit. My point was he is too small and consequently does not have the physicality the Gophers need right now. It's very possible we will see his inexperience become more evident as they play tougher teams down the stretch as well. He's still got a lot of developing to do. IMO Lucia brought him in too early. OJT does not work very well in this league and last season was a perfect example. This leads to my main point that Lucia's recruiting strategies have not been successful and there's a high probability it will cost the Gophers another season of ineptitude.

I thought this quote was interesting and emphasizes the point:

Bringing in teen defenseman early to play against 21- and 22-year-old forwards who are stronger and meaner doesn't work too well. Hopefully The Don and his staff have figured that out.

This season I saw Ryan McDonagh, Wisconsin's junior defenseman from Cretin-Derham Hall just toss sophomore Aaron Ness to the ice like he was a rag doll. Ness is another defenseman who accelerated.

I don't think it's assuming anything, which is kind of the point. Trying to predict the standings using probability equations in a league where the teams are so close just doesn't work too well. Whatever the odds say, I will bet the farm that they don't match how the standings will finally look.
As for your statement that MN and MSU aren't capable of taking games, well...they each are at .500 right now, so they can obviously win. And I agree, MSU will almost certainly not get home ice, and UAA will almost certainly finish in 9th. But that doesn't mean they are easy teams to sweep. Just ask DU.
My point is, if any team takes a night off in this league, they will probably get beat (unless they are playing Tech ) That's a hard thing to predict based on numbers.

And I agree, if the Gophers get swept this weekend, stick a fork in them. This team NEEDS at the very least 2 pts against UND, and really I think 3pts is kind of the minimum in order to gain even a little bit of ground in the standings.

As far as MSUM and UAA is concerned, I was referring to their WCHA record which is what we are discussing in terms of movement in the standings. They are both well below .500 and I tend to think they're not consistently capable of knocking any team off on any given night or sweeping teams. That's what it appeared to me you were assuming. BTW DU took 3 points from UAA last weekend. Let's face the facts, even the Gophers who are sitting above them haven't been able to do it and I seriously doubt they will sweep anymore opponents for the remainder of the season including UAA.

You're right, in this league you take a night off anytime and you lose. As far as stats and probabilities are concerned, as I said there are many variables, it is early to predict specific outcomes for some of the top teams. However, probabilities based on relative team strength and weaknesses, SOS, and games played results can come pretty close to being accurate predictors of final standings. I don't need a farm but a new ride would be nice, so you're on! After this weekend, things will become much clearer.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

As far as MSUM and UAA is concerned, I was referring to their WCHA record which is what we are discussing in terms of movement in the standings. They are both well below .500 and I tend to think they're not consistently capable of knocking any team off on any given night or sweeping teams. That's what it appeared to me you were assuming. BTW DU took 3 points from UAA last weekend. Let's face the facts, even the Gophers who are sitting above them haven't been able to do it and I seriously doubt they will sweep anymore opponents for the remainder of the season including UAA.

You're right, in this league you take a night off anytime and you lose. As far as stats and probabilities are concerned, as I said there are many variables, it is early to predict specific outcomes for some of the top teams. However, probabilities based on relative team strength and weaknesses, SOS, and games played results can come pretty close to being accurate predictors of final standings. I don't need a farm but a new ride would be nice, so you're on! After this weekend, things will become much clearer.

Well, I never said that UAA, Mankato, OR the Gophers were capable of consistently sweeping teams. I said the current top 6 in the conference are capable of sweeping any of the other top 5, and I said Mankato and the Gophers are capable of beating anyone on any given night (not sweeping), and that UAA is not a sure-thing 4 pts (they will steal some points). Yes, DU got 3 pts from them this past weekend. 3, not 4...on home ice, and it would have been only 2 had it not been for the final 30 seconds of the series. Far from an easy 4 pts, which is what I said

We've kind of done a few round-a-bouts here, so I'll reiterate my original point: with 12-14 conference games remaining, and considering how unpredictable these games end up being, I don't put much stock in SOS in determining how things will eventually turn out.

 

[Stauber1]

Re: Minnesota Golden Gophers 2009-2010: Calmly Step Away from the Ledge

As far as the new ride, all I have is a hot 1987 Tommaso race bike with Columbus tubing and a full Shimano 600 groupo. It would make me cry to lose it, but I suppose I could put my bicycle up against your motorcycle