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Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

T

The Sicatoka

Kicizapi Cetan
Well, the day is here (and thank you God, because I can't stand the election ads any longer).

Make your prognostications here. And I mean specific. Pick the upset. Pick the margin of a candidate over another. Pick how the House or Senate splits come January (to the numbers).

Let your inner Nate Silver shine! :D
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

Dems win the House by 30 Seats.
Republicans keep the Senate with 51 Seats.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

House: +40 net for Dems (they'll drop one in Minny and one in PA due to redistricting).
Senate: 49/51. Win NV and AZ. Lose ND and either MO or IN (I'd say MO more likely). All other seats remain with incumbent party.
Gov: +9 with Dem wins in ME, FL, OH, MI, IL, IA, WI, NM and NV. Would love to add GA to that but won't predict that will happen.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

I think the Dems gain 53 seats in the House. I think the Senate stays the same, 51/49.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

I think Heitkamp finishes far closer to Cramer in ND than the polling so far, say within 4 points.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

House +33 Dems

Senate 49/51

Hawley, Cramer, for GOP but Sinema and Rosen for Dem.

Georgia goes to run off in December, leading to mass hysteria in the Peach State at another month of ads
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

Michigan

There will be a hand recount in at least one of MI-8 and MI-11.

Stabenow wins by at least 5 points, despite losing some ground to John James the last few weeks.

Whitmer beats Schuette by 3-4 points.

BI 1 (marijuana) & 3 (voter reg reform) pass, but BI2 re: the redistricting commission doesn't get to 50% because of the Republican disinformation campaign

The Rest of the Republic

Dems pick up 34 seats in the House, tilting it 227-208 in their favor

Senate ends up 51/49 when Dems win NV, and McCaskill and Donnelly both survive by less than 1%, but they lose the Arizona and (obv) North Dakota races

Cruz wins 53/47.
 
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Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

ND Measure 1 passes (because it has the word "ethics" in it; it's a reasonable proposal with a horrible supremacy clause).
ND Measure 3 fails (no legalized marijuana this time around).
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

Calgary Ted beats Robert Francis O'Beto but within the mandatory recount margin.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

One more:

Highest mid-term voter turnout (gross numbers or by percentage of electorate) in last 100 years, and by percentage higher than at least one Presidential election year in the last 100.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

If you think there is any chance at all that the Dems can switch the Senate (given their near certainty to take over the House), Bovada will give you a pretty nice payout on your $100.

https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics/us-politics/2018-midterms-election-exact-outcome-201811070001


On the other hand, if the GOP retains the House and the Dems take over the Senate, we're going to want to check with Bovada to see who, exactly, may have placed some sizable bets on that outcome. :eek:
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

Maryland

Hogan wins reelection
Franchot wins Comptroller
Frosh upset in AG race (more wishful thinking than anything)

Dems win their 7 House districts, GOP gets their 1.
Cardin wins Senate reelection

Constitutional amendment 1 (lockbox gambling income for education) passes.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

MI
Slotkin wins MI 8 by 50/49
Stabenow wins senate 52/48
Whitmer wins governor 54/46
All three props pass, but 2 by a razor thin margin

Nationally
Kemp frauds himself to a close victory in GA
Gillum wins in Florida 52/48
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

Democrats sweep the House and Governor races in Alaska, BANK ON IT!

Or in reality the Democrats might win Governor but lose the House seat.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

Maine stays the same, with weasel boy Poliquin barely getting by Dem Golden. Ranked choice voting may screw that prediction up ?? Governor goes to Dem Mills.. Every bond issue passes like they always do
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

The Sicatoka said:
One more:

Highest mid-term voter turnout (gross numbers or by percentage of electorate) in last 100 years, and by percentage higher than at least one Presidential election year in the last 100.
Click to expand...

I'm thinking I'm in good shape with these predictions.
 
The Sicatoka said:
One more:

Highest mid-term voter turnout (gross numbers or by percentage of electorate) in last 100 years, and by percentage higher than at least one Presidential election year in the last 100.
Click to expand...

Judging from when I voted (11 am & a 50 minute wait), I think it's a safe bet.
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

walrus said:
Maine stays the same, with weasel boy Poliquin barely getting by Dem Golden. Ranked choice voting may screw that prediction up ?? Governor goes to Dem Mills.. Every bond issue passes like they always do
Click to expand...

Like I thought, except the home health care didn't pass. 2nd District too close to call with 72% in
 
Re: Mid-term Prognostications 2018 -- Time to Shine like Silver!

The Sicatoka said:
ND Measure 1 passes (because it has the word "ethics" in it; it's a reasonable proposal with a horrible supremacy clause).
ND Measure 3 fails (no legalized marijuana this time around).
Click to expand...

Two for two here (and Measure 1 is still terrible with that supremacy clause).
 
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