Men's Conference Tournament NPI Predictor

[TonyTheTiger20]

Hello folks,

After 11 years of releasing women's hockey tournament predictors (click here to see this year's version well underway), I have finally managed to put together a men's predictor. Essentially, you fill in the conference tournament brackets, and once complete, it will spit out the resulting NPI rankings.

CHN does this as well, but I think mine is releasing earlier than theirs (their page says theirs will release after the final best of 3 quarterfinal which would be March 15th, and I'm releasing mine this Saturday March 7th after the last regular season game), but more than anything this has just been a bit of a passion project of mine for a decade-plus and I'm really just excited to have been able to pull it off.

Anyway, this thing is incredibly complicated and if anyone would be willing to accept a copy by email that opens in Excel to play around with and try to break it / find any bugs or errors, I would be pretty grateful. Shoot me an email at grant dot salzano at gmail.

Thanks!

 

[Scarlet]

People who can do things like this amaze me. Well done. I won't use it at all but consider me impressed that you built it.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

People who can do things like this amaze me. Well done. I won't use it at all but consider me impressed that you built it.

Lol thank you -- I originally just did it for myself since no predictors existed for women's hockey, and then found a bunch of people were glad to have it. After the men's move to NPI simplified things from the Pairwise I decided to take on the challenge for fun.

Couldn't tell you why I enjoy it so much but I could sit there for hours working on it and it's like therapy hahaha

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

With the final regular season games in the books, my men's hockey predictor is now live!

What If? The 2026 NCAA Men’s Hockey Tournament NPI Predictor

Your best source for quality Boston College Eagles news, rumors, analysis, stats and scores from the fan perspective.

www.bcinterruption.com

Please let me know if you spot any bugs or have any issues. You can reply here, or shoot me an email at grant dot salzano at gmail.

I'm also happy to email an offline copy to anyone who would like one as I know sometimes it can be a little clunky on the web.

Thanks!

 

[Bronco Hockey Fan]

Does anyone have a scenario where Union gets in without winning the ECAC final? Apparently, there's an absurdly small chance, so I'd like to know what sort of wild sorcery would need to play out.

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Does anyone have a scenario where Union gets in without winning the ECAC final? Apparently, there's an absurdly small chance, so I'd like to know what sort of wild sorcery would need to play out.

I have a scenario up right now with Union (.53590) getting in at 15 and edging out UMass (.53566). Union had Sacred Heart as a NC opponent so I started with Sacred Heart sweeping through to the AHA Championship to help with their SOS. Union losing (to QPac if that matters?) in the ECAC finals is obviously a must. And Mankato getting swept by Ferris State in 2 games in the first round of the CCHA championship (won by Augustana). UMass/Uconn/BC also losing right off the bat and PC winning their tournament, leaving Hockey East with 1 bid. Not sure what else matters but those may be key drivers.

Edit - Full results for this scenario I found:

AHA
Bentley in 2
SHU in 2
RMU in 3
HC in 2

SHU in 2
Bentley in 2

SHU

B1G
Michigan
MSU

MSU

CCHA
FSU in 2
STU in 2
Aug in 2
MTU in 2

Aug
FSU

Aug

Hockey East
PC
NU
BU
Maine

Maine
PC

PC

Nacho
UND 2
DU 2
WMU 2
UMD 2

DU
UND

UND

ECAC
QU 2
COL 2
CORN 2
Union 2

Union
QU

QU

It's .2% of 20,000 Monte Carlo sims so... pretty unlikely.

 

[BC/HE]

I have a scenario up right now with Union (.53590) getting in at 15 and edging out UMass (.53566). Union had Sacred Heart as a NC opponent so I started with Sacred Heart sweeping through to the AHA Championship to help with their SOS. Union losing (to QPac if that matters?) in the ECAC finals is obviously a must. And Mankato getting swept by Ferris State in 2 games in the first round of the CCHA championship (won by Augustana). UMass/Uconn/BC also losing right off the bat and PC winning their tournament, leaving Hockey East with 1 bid. Not sure what else matters but those may be key drivers.

Edit - Full results for this scenario I found:

AHA
Bentley in 2
SHU in 2
RMU in 3
HC in 2

SHU in 2
Bentley in 2

SHU

B1G
Michigan
MSU

MSU

CCHA
FSU in 2
STU in 2
Aug in 2
MTU in 2

Aug
FSU

Aug

Hockey East
PC
NU
BU
Maine

Maine
PC

PC

Nacho
UND 2
DU 2
WMU 2
UMD 2

DU
UND

UND

ECAC
QU 2
COL 2
CORN 2
Union 2

Union
QU

QU

It's .2% of 20,000 Monte Carlo sims so... pretty unlikely.

Only problem is that Minnesota State already eliminated Ferris State. MSU plays Michigan Tech in the semifinal.

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Only problem is that Minnesota State already eliminated Ferris State. MSU plays Michigan Tech in the semifinal.

LOL well that's a big problem. Those should be locked in lol.

Anyway, here is a new one that should be real this time. I think DU winning NCHC had a big part in getting Union in as it was the final thing I flipped to get them over the hump.
AHA - SHU wins the tournament over Bentley. Both advance in 2 games in the semis.
B1G - MSU over Michigan.
CCHA - Augustana over MTU
ECAC - QU/Colgate/Cornell/Union all in 2. QU over Union in the final.
HE - PC/NU/BU/Maine advance, PC over BU in the final.
NCHC - DU over UND in the final.

Union 15 seed .53595

17 STU .53590
18 Mankato .53586

 

[unofan]

Carried over from the Cafe thread, I've found 2 scenarios where Penn State misses out:

Penn State loses to Michigan in the semis
Dartmouth and Cornell both sweep their QFs
Someone other than Providence wins HEA (semi-stolen bid)
ECAC goes to either Princeton or Union (stolen bid)
tOSU takes the Big Ten crown. (stolen bid)

PLUS
Quinnipiac sweeps Clarkson (not sure why this matters, but it does)
OR
Quinnipiac beats Clarkson in 3 AND Minnesota State wins the CCHA.

In either case, Penn State falls below Wisconsin to #12 and misses out as 12-16 would be all autobids.

 

[Bronco Hockey Fan]

Oh shoot, I actually found one! Thanks for the input fellas! But after fiddling around with it, I finally came up with:

ECAC
Quinnipiac and Union in 2, Cornell and Colgate in 3 for the quarterfinals
then Quinnipiac over Union in the championship

AHA
Sacred Heart and Bentley in 2,
then Sacred Heart in the finals

B10
Michigan wins the Big Ten (either opponent)

CCHA
Augustana over Michigan Tech

NCHC
North Dakota over Denver

HEA
Merrimack, Maine, UMass and BU in the quarterfinals,
then UMass over BU in the championship


Union gets in at #15