Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
Where do we stand going into the final night of the league playoffs?
Hockey East will most likely be sending five teams, maybe six.
Three have punched their tickets:
BC
Lowell
Notre Dame
Two are extremely likely (at least one of these two will make it, if not both):
Providence
Vermont
Two teams are around the bubble: NU and UNH.
For those unfamiliar with how RPI works (regular readers should know this part by now), wins and losses at this time of year also get weighted by the number of times that teams have faced off. The new in-season format in HE (2 games instead of 3 vs league opponents) means that post-season seedings have even more impact than they used to. In the past, you
might face a first round opponent as many times in the playoffs as during the regular season (3 RS + 2 or 3 QFs). Now you will face your QF foe
at least as many times (2 RS + 2 or 3 QFs).
This impacts NU because of UNH. Since these two faced off for three in the QFs, even though NU is done and in the clubhouse, UNH's post-season success impacts NU more than that of UML, ND, and PC. The best thing to happen for NU's NCAA hopes would be that UNH do as well as they can, pulling NU along with them. For example, UNH's win last night helped pull NU up in the PWR standings. Along with that, what is helpful is the other bubble-adjacent teams lose to drop while leaving NU in situ - with the exception of Western, who faced NU in the RS.
Further, NU's RPI is much better than UNH's on the scale of RPIs around the bubble. It is conceivable that there would be a situation where UNH could keep winning and get NU in, but then not make it themselves. What it also sets up is a situation where UNH could move NU up into the final at-large slot, but be below the bubble themselves and, by winning the final, take the HE auto-bid and knock out the final at-large spot, which their win just put NU into.
In theory, depending on how the other leagues turned out, we could be in a situation where five HE teams are in and we would be guaranteed a 6th, with UNH winning their way in, but leaving NU in the last slot if UML won. In other arrangements of winners this weekend, it could even have been that a UNH win not only got the 'Cats in but pulled the Huskies in with them for 7/16ths of the tourney being HE.
Given what has transpired so far, the 7-team scenario is simply not happening.
I checked to see if the guaranteed-six scenario could happen - either UNH wins or NU makes the final slot. Here's what I found:
The good news: I can get NU up into a tie for 15th, with the tb over the other 15 (Cornell) with the outcome of the HE Final pending. That leaves Cornell to get knocked out by either AHA winner (and the auto-bid), since both teams are under the bubble - as are all AHA teams this year. That way, either UNH wins their way in, or a UML win has NU at 15. All good, right?
Here's the bad news for the Huskies: The way the NCHC playoffs broke, both of the NCHC finalists (Denver and Miami) are
also under the bubble. That means that two below-the-bubble teams are going to auto-bid their way in. That takes away the 15 slot and bumps NU out of the tourney. Try as I might, with the results already in, I just can't find a scenario that has NU making up the very small RPI differential with Michigan that would swing the pair their way and leave UM as the school getting bumped out by the NCHC winner. Sorry, NU. (If someone else finds a way to get NU in, please post it.)
Now to UNH winning their way in.
Sometimes, all it takes for a team to get in is to keep winning - or to
not lose, and winning is the only other option in the playoffs (if there is no consolation game that allows ties in your league). What I mean by that is: sometimes the win in the final moves a team high enough up into the PWR where they earned their way into the tourney regardless of the auto-bid that
comes with the win. Conversely, they may have been good enough to earn a PWR bid, but then the loss takes them below the bubble, so it's the
loss that takes them out, not the
loss of the auto-bid. In the latter case, the season ending a day earlier would have had them in, but then they lost and dropped out.
So if UNH wins, they get the auto-bid and are in. But do they ever earn their way in,
regardless?
I am able to come up with at least one scenario (see UNH-14 below) where UNH gets up to the 14th slot (a tie for 13th with Minn. St. and losing the tb) on their own, which earns them in ahead of the two under-bubble auto-bids. They would have earned the 14th slot and that's where they are after the auto-bid. Essentially, the team that they would otherwise knock out with their own auto-bid would be themselves.
In another scenario (the same as UNH-14 below, but with MSM winning), they are on the bottom of a tie for 14th with Michigan - effectively 15th. They then combine with the two auto-bids below them to move the at-large bid line up to 13th and take out Michigan. In another (the same as UNH-14 below, but with NoDak winning the consolation), Michigan and UNH are tied at 15th (UNH eff. 16th) with NoDak at 14, but UNH pulls up with the auto bid and, combined with the other two auto-bids, takes out both NoDak and Michigan.
So, in sum, there are a number of scenarios where the win would put UNH in the 14-16 range, but most of them would put them just under the bubble with the two lower auto-bids, so they need the auto-bid that comes with winning.
Interestingly, at this point, there are only two finals where one team is in and one team is otherwise out: HE (UML in, UNH pending) and B1G (Wisco in, OSU pending). All of the other finals appear to be between teams that are both in anyway, or both need the auto-bid to make it. As far as
which team wins either auto-bid from the AHA and NCHC, it doesn't appear that it affects which other teams make the tourney, only the order of the same surviving teams in some situations - with ONE exception (see MSM-Out below).
In the only consolation game, NoDak can actually still win their way in, but they need to hope the under-bubble auto-bids stays at two, so they are vulnerable to either UNH or OSU winning. A NoDak tie or loss could put Michigan in the same situation - hoping for UNH and OSU to both come up short.
If MSM wins along with NoDak in the UNH-14 scenario below, that moves MSM up and leaves PC and UVM in a tie for 12 (PC 12, UVM 13) with UNH taking 14 at the bubble. An OSU win would then soak up another auto-bid and take UVM out of the tourney. With MSM, NoDak, and OSU all winning, but then adding in Colgate, that swaps UVM and PC, putting PC out and UVM back in.
To review:
In...
BC
Lowell
Notre Dame
At least two of...
PC/Vermont/UNH or all three
--------
UNH earning 14 on their own:
Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: Canisius defeats Robert Morris
Big Ten
Championship game: Wisconsin defeats Ohio State
ECAC
Championship game: Union defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
NCHC
Consolation game: Western Michigan defeats North Dakota
Championship game: Denver defeats Miami
WCHA
Championship game: Ferris State defeats Minnesota State
Read more:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2wj1xz1Rb
--------
PC/UNH in, UVM out:
Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: Canisius defeats Robert Morris
Big Ten
Championship game: Ohio State defeats Wisconsin
ECAC
Championship game: Union defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
NCHC
Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Denver defeats Miami
WCHA
Championship game: Minnesota State defeats Ferris State
Read more:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2wizr9fx6
--------
UVM/UNH in, PC out:
Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: Canisius defeats Robert Morris
Big Ten
Championship game: Ohio State defeats Wisconsin
ECAC
Championship game: Colgate defeats Union
Hockey East
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
NCHC
Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Denver defeats Miami
WCHA
Championship game: Minnesota State defeats Ferris State
Read more:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2wizr9fx6
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For those interested, ...
this would knock MSM out:
Atlantic Hockey
Championship game: Robert Morris defeats Canisius
Big Ten
Championship game: Ohio State defeats Wisconsin
ECAC
Championship game: Union defeats Colgate
Hockey East
Championship game: New Hampshire defeats Massachusetts-Lowell
NCHC
Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Western Michigan
Championship game: Denver defeats Miami
WCHA
Championship game: Ferris State defeats Minnesota State
Read more:
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/#ixzz2wj2tGWjD
This is where the AHA and NCHC winner makes a difference. If Canisius or Denver win, UVM is last in and MSM is knocked out. BUT if RMU and Miami
both win, the Predictor shows the UVM/MSM pair flipping with both teams tying on all parameters, including having .5389 RPI, but MSM taking the tb (at the 5th or deeper digit on RPI?)
