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Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
- Thread starter JB
- Start date
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
I'll take a look at the tie breakers, perhaps later today (after TAing the final Python classes of this session). Certainly before next week's games.
I'll also bring back the formatting for the standings and Round-Robin Records (RRRs) tiebreakers. I didn't want to jump into your team bracketing before you had a chance to post whatever you wanted, since you started the thread this year.
I'll take a look at the tie breakers, perhaps later today (after TAing the final Python classes of this session). Certainly before next week's games.
I'll also bring back the formatting for the standings and Round-Robin Records (RRRs) tiebreakers. I didn't want to jump into your team bracketing before you had a chance to post whatever you wanted, since you started the thread this year.
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
Thanks for the link, Jeff.
As ScottK points out, UML has already clinched a Bye into the QFs.
True, there are four teams behind them that could individually catch and pass them, hitting 24 to UML's current 23.
Since Maine and PC play each other for two, they'd have to split the four points somehow. Maine needs at least two to tie UML and has the tb (1-0-1). However, that would leave PC with two points max, at least a point short of UML at 22.
As for their Magic number to clinch home ice, I'll cover the possibilities for a logjam at 24 when I post the RRR grids later. There are a lot of permutations there, including how many, and which, teams are tied - and whether NU would have 24 with two ties, or a win and a loss in these scenarios.
Thanks for the link, Jeff.
As ScottK points out, UML has already clinched a Bye into the QFs.
True, there are four teams behind them that could individually catch and pass them, hitting 24 to UML's current 23.
Since Maine and PC play each other for two, they'd have to split the four points somehow. Maine needs at least two to tie UML and has the tb (1-0-1). However, that would leave PC with two points max, at least a point short of UML at 22.
As for their Magic number to clinch home ice, I'll cover the possibilities for a logjam at 24 when I post the RRR grids later. There are a lot of permutations there, including how many, and which, teams are tied - and whether NU would have 24 with two ties, or a win and a loss in these scenarios.
e.cat
Seasoned Veteran
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
IF UNH SWEEPS MC:
SCENARIO 1
NU/BU SPLIT---NU 24 PTS
ME/PC SPLIT---ME 23 PTS
PC 22 PTS
UNH GETS THE #3 SEED
SCENARIO 2
NU SWEEPS BU---NU 26 PTS
ME SWEEPS PC---ME 25 PTS
PC 20 PTS
UNH GETS THE #5 SEED
SCENARIO 3
NU SWEEPS BU---26 PTS
ME/PC SPLIT---ME 23 PTS
NU 22 PTS
UNH GETS THE #4 SEED
SCENARIO 4
NU SPLIT---NU 24 PTS
ME SWEEPS PC---ME 25 PTS
PC 20 PTS
UNH GETS THE #4 SEED
I think I've done this correctly. Please correct me if I am wrong on this
IF UNH SWEEPS MC:
SCENARIO 1
NU/BU SPLIT---NU 24 PTS
ME/PC SPLIT---ME 23 PTS
PC 22 PTS
UNH GETS THE #3 SEED
SCENARIO 2
NU SWEEPS BU---NU 26 PTS
ME SWEEPS PC---ME 25 PTS
PC 20 PTS
UNH GETS THE #5 SEED
SCENARIO 3
NU SWEEPS BU---26 PTS
ME/PC SPLIT---ME 23 PTS
NU 22 PTS
UNH GETS THE #4 SEED
SCENARIO 4
NU SPLIT---NU 24 PTS
ME SWEEPS PC---ME 25 PTS
PC 20 PTS
UNH GETS THE #4 SEED
I think I've done this correctly. Please correct me if I am wrong on this
UML Puck Hawk
New member
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>With Maine and PC playing this weekend, they cannot both pass UML or NU in the standings. <a href="https://twitter.com/RiverHawkHockey">@RiverHawkHockey</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/GoNUmhockey">@GoNUmhockey</a> have 1st-rd byes</p>— Hockey East (@hockey_east) <a href="https://twitter.com/hockey_east/statuses/437654770409426944">February 23, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I assume NU clinched based on some tiebreaker. If someone can figure out how, perhaps this'll be a bit of insight in how they will be performing the tiebreakers this year?
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>With Maine and PC playing this weekend, they cannot both pass UML or NU in the standings. <a href="https://twitter.com/RiverHawkHockey">@RiverHawkHockey</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/GoNUmhockey">@GoNUmhockey</a> have 1st-rd byes</p>— Hockey East (@hockey_east) <a href="https://twitter.com/hockey_east/statuses/437654770409426944">February 23, 2014</a></blockquote>
<script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I assume NU clinched based on some tiebreaker. If someone can figure out how, perhaps this'll be a bit of insight in how they will be performing the tiebreakers this year?
JB
Desk Chair Coach
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
BC 34 – 36 [1]
--- Quarter-Final Home Lock - (Top 4) ---
UML 23-27 [2-5]
--- Quarter-Final Lock - (Top 5) ---
NU 22-26[2-7]
ME 21-25 [2-7]
UNH 20-24 [2-7]
PC 20-24 [2-8]
UVM 18-22[4-8]
--- Top 4 Eligible - ---
--- Top 5 Eligible - ---
ND 18-20 [6-8]
--- 1st round Home Lock – 15 w BU tb, 16 w/o ---
UMA 11 [9-10]
BU 9-13 [9-11]
MC 6-10 [10-11]
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC – ND
UML - @UVM, @UVM
ME - PC, PC
UNH – @MC, @MC
NU – @BU, BU
PC – @ME, @ME
ND – BC
UVM - UML, UML
UMA - OFF
BU - NU, @NU
MC – UNH, UNH
Good call ScottK, I did all the analysis ref PC and ME and didn’t catch that the line should move for UML.
BC 34 – 36 [1]
--- Quarter-Final Home Lock - (Top 4) ---
UML 23-27 [2-5]
--- Quarter-Final Lock - (Top 5) ---
NU 22-26[2-7]
ME 21-25 [2-7]
UNH 20-24 [2-7]
PC 20-24 [2-8]
UVM 18-22[4-8]
--- Top 4 Eligible - ---
--- Top 5 Eligible - ---
ND 18-20 [6-8]
--- 1st round Home Lock – 15 w BU tb, 16 w/o ---
UMA 11 [9-10]
BU 9-13 [9-11]
MC 6-10 [10-11]
Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
BC – ND
UML - @UVM, @UVM
ME - PC, PC
UNH – @MC, @MC
NU – @BU, BU
PC – @ME, @ME
ND – BC
UVM - UML, UML
UMA - OFF
BU - NU, @NU
MC – UNH, UNH
Good call ScottK, I did all the analysis ref PC and ME and didn’t catch that the line should move for UML.
JB
Desk Chair Coach
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
As for Northeastern - I can't say they are clear of 6th:
If NU gets no more points, UML is already ahead, UNH can cleanly pass with 3 of 4 points against MC and one of Maine and PC must cleanly pass. That leaves us with the following options:
NU alone in 5th
NU in 5th tied with UVM
NU in 5th tied with either ME or PC but not both
NU in 5th tied with UVM and either ME or PC but not both
NU holds the tie breaker 2-0 with UVM. NU has identical 1-0-1 records with PC and ME holding both of those.
There is a possibility of NU ends tied with PC (by PC splitting) at 22 points, UNH sweeps to 24 points, UML is swept and stays at 23 and Maine gets to 23 only happens if the tie at 22 is three way with UVM. So we need to back-up a break a 3-way tie UVM, NU, PC...
PC 3-0-1, NU 3-0-1, UVM 0-4. So bottom up the finish UVM 7th, and then PC 6th over NU 5th based on NU 1-0-1 record with PC. With Top down - HELP!!!! this is where I always get lost, if I can't clearly define the top team in the first tie breaker I typically botch it...
I think this one case puts might put NU 6th.
As for Northeastern - I can't say they are clear of 6th:
If NU gets no more points, UML is already ahead, UNH can cleanly pass with 3 of 4 points against MC and one of Maine and PC must cleanly pass. That leaves us with the following options:
NU alone in 5th
NU in 5th tied with UVM
NU in 5th tied with either ME or PC but not both
NU in 5th tied with UVM and either ME or PC but not both
NU holds the tie breaker 2-0 with UVM. NU has identical 1-0-1 records with PC and ME holding both of those.
There is a possibility of NU ends tied with PC (by PC splitting) at 22 points, UNH sweeps to 24 points, UML is swept and stays at 23 and Maine gets to 23 only happens if the tie at 22 is three way with UVM. So we need to back-up a break a 3-way tie UVM, NU, PC...
PC 3-0-1, NU 3-0-1, UVM 0-4. So bottom up the finish UVM 7th, and then PC 6th over NU 5th based on NU 1-0-1 record with PC. With Top down - HELP!!!! this is where I always get lost, if I can't clearly define the top team in the first tie breaker I typically botch it...
I think this one case puts might put NU 6th.
Last edited:
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
Well the tie-breakers are listed on the website...
Well the tie-breakers are listed on the website...
The Zlax45
Registered User
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
NU wins the H2H with both PC and Maine so that is the tiebreaker they must had won
NU wins the H2H with both PC and Maine so that is the tiebreaker they must had won
UML Puck Hawk
New member
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
Right, but as had been discussed, Hockey East has not necessarily been consistent with how they handle the H2H when it involves more than 2 teams. Bottom-up vs top-down
Right, but as had been discussed, Hockey East has not necessarily been consistent with how they handle the H2H when it involves more than 2 teams. Bottom-up vs top-down
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
According to the press release (http://www.hockeyeastonline.com/men/pres1314/201402/feb23pp.pdf), it's top down.
According to the press release (http://www.hockeyeastonline.com/men/pres1314/201402/feb23pp.pdf), it's top down.
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
coachhockeybob
ASUHockeybob
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
Hi Swedish, short answer is no. Teams seeded 1-4 are the teams that will be hosting the best of 3 games. The lowest remaining seed after the single elimination game will be headed to Boston. Which if all home teams win, would be ND, if seeds remain as listed today. The biggest change would come if ND upsets BC Saturday.
Or BU wins a game.
Hi Swedish, short answer is no. Teams seeded 1-4 are the teams that will be hosting the best of 3 games. The lowest remaining seed after the single elimination game will be headed to Boston. Which if all home teams win, would be ND, if seeds remain as listed today. The biggest change would come if ND upsets BC Saturday.
Or BU wins a game.
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
Outside of the four scenarios sits the UML-UVM series. IF UVM sweeps, UNH moves up one spot in all of your scenarios (I think
)
Maybe not too likely, but mathematically an option.
Outside of the four scenarios sits the UML-UVM series. IF UVM sweeps, UNH moves up one spot in all of your scenarios (I think
)Maybe not too likely, but mathematically an option.
e.cat
Seasoned Veteran
Outside of the four scenarios sits the UML-UVM series. IF UVM sweeps, UNH moves up one spot in all of your scenarios (I think
Maybe not too likely, but mathematically an option.
I think you're right AERMAN. UVM is at home for both so it is a possibility. Stranger things have happened right? Like Yale winning it all last year
Thanks AERMAN.I think you're right AERMAN. UVM is at home for both so it is a possibility. Stranger things have happened right? Like Yale winning it all last year
when would the first round of the play in games start, midweek. Or do top seeds get week off.
e.cat
Seasoned Veteran
Last edited:
Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
OK. Let's see if I can add anything here by putting all of the scenarios into one thread in an easy-to-read format.
As has been covered, the top seed (BC) and the three first round road teams (UMA, BU, MC) are all set except for the placement of BU within the bottom 3.
----
With all of its games complete, UMA is in the clubhouse, drinking at the 19th hole. They are out of reach of MC, so those two will be in that relative order.
BU could be at the top or bottom of this group, or remain in the middle. In this case, both of the teams that could move up (BU over UMA and MC over BU) hold a 1-0-1 tb over the team above.
For MC, even though they only have six points, they got three of them over one weekend in early December against the only team that they can still catch. For both BU and MC, the point they each got in the tie that Saturday night was the last league point either would earn until they each got a win on the same weekend - seven weeks later. BU has added on a couple of ties since then to widen the gap from 1 to 3, but that's a pretty dismal stretch for both squads.
It's hard to remember that after beating Cornell in MSG, BU was actually over .500 at 7-6-1. Even after the MC weekend that followed, the Terriers were at .500 at 7-7-2. It was a pounding by a hot Bentley team (only a single loss between Nov 15 and Jan 31) in their final game of the first semester that put BU under .500 for good.
Regardless of how we all got here, it means that if BU gets two points, they catch UMA and pass them for 9th and would travel to the 8th place team for the first round. If there are no upsets in the other games, the winner of the 8-9 game (BU, UMA, or their opponent) will travel to The Heights to face BC in the next round.
If MC can out-point BU by three, they would catch them and move into 10th.
The simplest resolution to all of this is if BU were to win on Friday, which would put them out of reach of MC and ahead of UMA. Done and done. Anything short of that would at least leave the 8-9 outcome in doubt until Saturday.
----
Now for the muddled middle...
Let's start at the top.
If UML wins out, they're out of reach at 27. 2nd seed.
----
If UML takes three from UVM and NU sweeps BU, they tie at 26. NU holds the 2-0-0 tb. NU 2nd, UML 3rd.
----
UML +2, NU +3 and ME sweep leaves a three-way tie at 25. In that case, we have:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>UML</th><th>NU</th><th>ME</th><th>Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>0-3-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>3-0-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>0-1-1</td><td></td><td>1-1-2</td></tr>
</table>NU / ME / UML go 2/3/4. Current-2nd UML's bad luck that 3 of their 5 current losses are against the current 3rd and 4th place teams.
----
If NU and ME tie at 25 without UML, NU takes the higher seed (2nd or 3rd, depending on whether UML is above or below this pair).
If UML and ME tie here w/o NU, then ME takes the higher seed (same options as above relative to NU's placement).
----
Moving down to 24, we could have any of five teams at this mark, with as many as four of them doing it at once. The same would be true at 23. As the schedule works out, the only interplay in this group this weekend is ME v PC. Since either one would need a sweep to get to be relevant here, they can't both be included. that leaves us with a maximum combination of a ME/PC sweeper, UML, NU, and ME. In this grid there will be two totals, one with ME involved, and one with PC. The ME/PC records are dropped, as they are moot for these calculations:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>UML</th><th>NU</th><th>UNH</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>2-2-2</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>2-3-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td>2-3-1</td><td>3-3-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>3-2-1</td><td>3-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-2-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>3-3-0</td><td>3-3-0</td></tr>
</table>So here's what happens:
I'll assume that anyone can figure out the two-way tbs out of this bunch on their own, so I'll look at the multi-way ties.
----
In a three-way tie at 24 without either of ME or PC, UML, NU, and UNH would all be 2-2-0 in RRR. We'd move to the 2nd tb (conf wins). To be at 24, UML would have to get a single tie and have a HE record of 10-6-4. UNH would have to sweep, and so would be 12-8-0. NU would split, but at either 1-1-0 or 0-0-2. In the former, they're 11-7-2, the latter puts them at 10-6-4. Given the new league declaration in writing ("reduce the number of teams tied <i>from the top</i>"), that puts UNH in front, however NU gets to 24. At that point, we go back to H2H tb, giving NU over UML. Whether this is 2/3/4 or 3/4/5 depends on whether ME sweeps PC to pass into 2nd at 25, or PC gets 2 or 3 to keep both ME and PC below 24.
----
Although either or ME or PC has to hit at least 23 (either ME gets at least 2 or PC gets at least 3), UML, NU, and UNH could still be in a three-way tie at 23 if they are passed by the winner of the ME/PC series. In that case, UML and NU would each have 10 wins and UNH would have 11, which gives us the same UNH/NU/UML seeding as before, but this time below the ME/PC winner for sure - placing them 3/4/5.
----
Now let's include ME and PC.
NU has the same results in their games against ME and PC, as does UNH - although those records are different from each other (NU is 1-0-1 against both and UNH is 1-1-0). Tying four ways with either ME or PC puts NU at 3-2-1 and UNH at 3-3-0. ME would be 2-2-2 and PC would be 2-3-1.
For UML, their RRR depends on the match-up. With ME in the mix, they are 2-3-1, but with PC as part of the foursome, they move to 3-3-0.
So, in either foursome, NU ends up a half game over .500, but that's the best anyone gets, so NU would be at the top, leaving a three-way tie behind.
Resetting the other three looks like this:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>UML</th><th>UNH</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>2-1-1</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>2-2-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>2-0-0</td><td>2-1-1</td><td>3-1-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-2-0</td><td></td><td>1-3-0</td><td>1-3-0</td></tr>
</table>----
With ME, both ME and UML are 2-1-1 with UNH at 1-3-0. Since they now say "from the top", I believe that they would isolate ME and UML H2H (rather than move to 2nd tb) and then throw the loser back into a H2H with UNH. That puts ME next at 1-0-1 and then UML tops UNH. So that means that four way would be NU/ME/UML/UNH.
----
With PC, UML tops at 3-1-0 to PC's 2-2-0 and UNH's 1-3-0. Then PC/UNH goes H2H at 1-1-0. Since UNH and PC are currently both at 20, either they both need to sweep in the 24 scenario, or they both need a win and a tie if this is all happening at 23. In either case, their records match this weekend. Since UNH comes into the weekend with one more win than PC, the 2nd tb in both cases goes to UNH and PC falls to the bottom. Here we get NU/UML/UNH/PC.
At either 24 or 23, the ME/PC loser is below the four-way group, so both seedings are for 2/3/4/5.
----
The RRR matrix just above also applies for three-way ties in this group that don't include NU. The only difference is whether the tbs are deciding 2/3/4 ahead of NU or 3/4/5 below them.
(to be continued)
OK. Let's see if I can add anything here by putting all of the scenarios into one thread in an easy-to-read format.
As has been covered, the top seed (BC) and the three first round road teams (UMA, BU, MC) are all set except for the placement of BU within the bottom 3.
----
With all of its games complete, UMA is in the clubhouse, drinking at the 19th hole. They are out of reach of MC, so those two will be in that relative order.
BU could be at the top or bottom of this group, or remain in the middle. In this case, both of the teams that could move up (BU over UMA and MC over BU) hold a 1-0-1 tb over the team above.
For MC, even though they only have six points, they got three of them over one weekend in early December against the only team that they can still catch. For both BU and MC, the point they each got in the tie that Saturday night was the last league point either would earn until they each got a win on the same weekend - seven weeks later. BU has added on a couple of ties since then to widen the gap from 1 to 3, but that's a pretty dismal stretch for both squads.
It's hard to remember that after beating Cornell in MSG, BU was actually over .500 at 7-6-1. Even after the MC weekend that followed, the Terriers were at .500 at 7-7-2. It was a pounding by a hot Bentley team (only a single loss between Nov 15 and Jan 31) in their final game of the first semester that put BU under .500 for good.
Regardless of how we all got here, it means that if BU gets two points, they catch UMA and pass them for 9th and would travel to the 8th place team for the first round. If there are no upsets in the other games, the winner of the 8-9 game (BU, UMA, or their opponent) will travel to The Heights to face BC in the next round.
If MC can out-point BU by three, they would catch them and move into 10th.
The simplest resolution to all of this is if BU were to win on Friday, which would put them out of reach of MC and ahead of UMA. Done and done. Anything short of that would at least leave the 8-9 outcome in doubt until Saturday.
----
Now for the muddled middle...
Let's start at the top.
If UML wins out, they're out of reach at 27. 2nd seed.
----
If UML takes three from UVM and NU sweeps BU, they tie at 26. NU holds the 2-0-0 tb. NU 2nd, UML 3rd.
----
UML +2, NU +3 and ME sweep leaves a three-way tie at 25. In that case, we have:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>UML</th><th>NU</th><th>ME</th><th>Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>0-3-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>3-0-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>0-1-1</td><td></td><td>1-1-2</td></tr>
</table>NU / ME / UML go 2/3/4. Current-2nd UML's bad luck that 3 of their 5 current losses are against the current 3rd and 4th place teams.
----
If NU and ME tie at 25 without UML, NU takes the higher seed (2nd or 3rd, depending on whether UML is above or below this pair).
If UML and ME tie here w/o NU, then ME takes the higher seed (same options as above relative to NU's placement).
----
Moving down to 24, we could have any of five teams at this mark, with as many as four of them doing it at once. The same would be true at 23. As the schedule works out, the only interplay in this group this weekend is ME v PC. Since either one would need a sweep to get to be relevant here, they can't both be included. that leaves us with a maximum combination of a ME/PC sweeper, UML, NU, and ME. In this grid there will be two totals, one with ME involved, and one with PC. The ME/PC records are dropped, as they are moot for these calculations:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>UML</th><th>NU</th><th>UNH</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>2-2-2</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>2-3-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td>2-3-1</td><td>3-3-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>3-2-1</td><td>3-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-2-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>3-3-0</td><td>3-3-0</td></tr>
</table>So here's what happens:
I'll assume that anyone can figure out the two-way tbs out of this bunch on their own, so I'll look at the multi-way ties.
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In a three-way tie at 24 without either of ME or PC, UML, NU, and UNH would all be 2-2-0 in RRR. We'd move to the 2nd tb (conf wins). To be at 24, UML would have to get a single tie and have a HE record of 10-6-4. UNH would have to sweep, and so would be 12-8-0. NU would split, but at either 1-1-0 or 0-0-2. In the former, they're 11-7-2, the latter puts them at 10-6-4. Given the new league declaration in writing ("reduce the number of teams tied <i>from the top</i>"), that puts UNH in front, however NU gets to 24. At that point, we go back to H2H tb, giving NU over UML. Whether this is 2/3/4 or 3/4/5 depends on whether ME sweeps PC to pass into 2nd at 25, or PC gets 2 or 3 to keep both ME and PC below 24.
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Although either or ME or PC has to hit at least 23 (either ME gets at least 2 or PC gets at least 3), UML, NU, and UNH could still be in a three-way tie at 23 if they are passed by the winner of the ME/PC series. In that case, UML and NU would each have 10 wins and UNH would have 11, which gives us the same UNH/NU/UML seeding as before, but this time below the ME/PC winner for sure - placing them 3/4/5.
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Now let's include ME and PC.
NU has the same results in their games against ME and PC, as does UNH - although those records are different from each other (NU is 1-0-1 against both and UNH is 1-1-0). Tying four ways with either ME or PC puts NU at 3-2-1 and UNH at 3-3-0. ME would be 2-2-2 and PC would be 2-3-1.
For UML, their RRR depends on the match-up. With ME in the mix, they are 2-3-1, but with PC as part of the foursome, they move to 3-3-0.
So, in either foursome, NU ends up a half game over .500, but that's the best anyone gets, so NU would be at the top, leaving a three-way tie behind.
Resetting the other three looks like this:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>UML</th><th>UNH</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>2-1-1</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>2-2-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>2-0-0</td><td>2-1-1</td><td>3-1-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-2-0</td><td></td><td>1-3-0</td><td>1-3-0</td></tr>
</table>----
With ME, both ME and UML are 2-1-1 with UNH at 1-3-0. Since they now say "from the top", I believe that they would isolate ME and UML H2H (rather than move to 2nd tb) and then throw the loser back into a H2H with UNH. That puts ME next at 1-0-1 and then UML tops UNH. So that means that four way would be NU/ME/UML/UNH.
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With PC, UML tops at 3-1-0 to PC's 2-2-0 and UNH's 1-3-0. Then PC/UNH goes H2H at 1-1-0. Since UNH and PC are currently both at 20, either they both need to sweep in the 24 scenario, or they both need a win and a tie if this is all happening at 23. In either case, their records match this weekend. Since UNH comes into the weekend with one more win than PC, the 2nd tb in both cases goes to UNH and PC falls to the bottom. Here we get NU/UML/UNH/PC.
At either 24 or 23, the ME/PC loser is below the four-way group, so both seedings are for 2/3/4/5.
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The RRR matrix just above also applies for three-way ties in this group that don't include NU. The only difference is whether the tbs are deciding 2/3/4 ahead of NU or 3/4/5 below them.
(to be continued)
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Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2013-14 edition
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This is what three-ways at 24 and 23 look like without UNH in the mix:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>NU</th><th>UML</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-1-2</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>1-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td></td><td>2-0-0</td><td>3-0-1</td><td>3-0-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>0-3-1</td><td>1-3-0</td></tr>
</table>Here we have NU dominant at 3-0-1.
Next, ME would top UML H2H (1-0-1) - giving a NU/ME/UML finish - but PC and UML would be 1-1-0 and go to 2nd tb.
At 24, PC's added two wins to UML's lone tie would have PC passing UML's win count, 11-10. NU/PC/UML.
At 23, UML would lose twice and be 10-7-3. PC's three points would also put them at 10-7-3. 3rd tb, record against the league's top teams in sequence until there is a difference. Fortunately, we have a definite #1 at this point, so the variables there go away. PC got swept by BC, but UML nicked the Eagles for a point. NU/UML/PC.
Notice that the UML/NU/PC outcome depends on whether the tie happens at 24 or 23.
----
The final set of three-ways here (without UML) go like this:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>NU</th><th>UNH</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-2-1</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>1-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>1-2-1</td><td>1-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>3-1-0</td><td>3-1-0</td></tr>
</table>There's a big swing by swapping out UML.
Instead of NU sweeping UML and UNH getting swept, the roles reverse as UNH sweeps NU directly. In all combos here, the initial split has NU and either ME or PC all at 1-2-1 and UNH at 3-1-0. NU then wins H2H over both ME and PC, so these trios fall UNH/NU/ME or UNH/NU/PC.
----
A different five-teams-for-up-to-a-four-way-tie situation happens at 22 points.
This time we swap out UML for UVM.
ME and PC can still not both be included. In fact, since they are separated by an odd number of points and play each other, ME and PC can't tie each other at <i>any</i> point total.
----
At 21, we would lose NU from the possible mix (they're already at 22), but not yet add in ND. These scenarios would be similar to any three-ways at 22 that didn't involve NU, with a slight difference. Any 2nd tbs with UNH or PC (or both) would have to account for either team getting to 22 with a 1-1-0 or 0-0-2 record. At 21, they have to both have 0-1-1 results.
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At 20, we drop ME (already at 21), but add ND into the possible four-ways with PC/UNH/UVM/ND.
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At 19 and 18, it's simply UVM/ND H2H (1-1-0), and then 2nd tb gives UVM the nod, 9-8.
----
Sadly, I just don't have time to do the breakouts for 22, 21, and 20 tonight, as I have a big deliverable at work tomorrow and it's almost two.
I assume that Friday night will have me going to bed shortly after the games end as it's going to be a draining day. I'll try to get some time on Saturday to do the analysis before the final night.
In the mean time, if anyone wants to comb through the results above to see if anyone has clinched (or lost) any positions because of all this tie-breaking, feel free to let us know how it turns out. I'm heading to bed.
(Note: USCHO dumped this the first time I tried to post it. That would have been mui sad. Fortunately, this is not my first rodeo and I had it saved in a text file...
Then it was too long so I had to split the post... grrrr...)
Enjoy...
----
This is what three-ways at 24 and 23 look like without UNH in the mix:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>NU</th><th>UML</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-1-2</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>1-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td></td><td>2-0-0</td><td>3-0-1</td><td>3-0-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>0-3-1</td><td>1-3-0</td></tr>
</table>Here we have NU dominant at 3-0-1.
Next, ME would top UML H2H (1-0-1) - giving a NU/ME/UML finish - but PC and UML would be 1-1-0 and go to 2nd tb.
At 24, PC's added two wins to UML's lone tie would have PC passing UML's win count, 11-10. NU/PC/UML.
At 23, UML would lose twice and be 10-7-3. PC's three points would also put them at 10-7-3. 3rd tb, record against the league's top teams in sequence until there is a difference. Fortunately, we have a definite #1 at this point, so the variables there go away. PC got swept by BC, but UML nicked the Eagles for a point. NU/UML/PC.
Notice that the UML/NU/PC outcome depends on whether the tie happens at 24 or 23.
----
The final set of three-ways here (without UML) go like this:<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>ME</th><th>PC</th><th>NU</th><th>UNH</th><th>ME Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>ME:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-2-1</td><td></td></tr>
<tr><td>PC:</td><td></td><td></td><td>0-1-1</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>1-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>1-0-1</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>1-2-1</td><td>1-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>3-1-0</td><td>3-1-0</td></tr>
</table>There's a big swing by swapping out UML.
Instead of NU sweeping UML and UNH getting swept, the roles reverse as UNH sweeps NU directly. In all combos here, the initial split has NU and either ME or PC all at 1-2-1 and UNH at 3-1-0. NU then wins H2H over both ME and PC, so these trios fall UNH/NU/ME or UNH/NU/PC.
----
A different five-teams-for-up-to-a-four-way-tie situation happens at 22 points.
This time we swap out UML for UVM.
ME and PC can still not both be included. In fact, since they are separated by an odd number of points and play each other, ME and PC can't tie each other at <i>any</i> point total.
----
At 21, we would lose NU from the possible mix (they're already at 22), but not yet add in ND. These scenarios would be similar to any three-ways at 22 that didn't involve NU, with a slight difference. Any 2nd tbs with UNH or PC (or both) would have to account for either team getting to 22 with a 1-1-0 or 0-0-2 record. At 21, they have to both have 0-1-1 results.
----
At 20, we drop ME (already at 21), but add ND into the possible four-ways with PC/UNH/UVM/ND.
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At 19 and 18, it's simply UVM/ND H2H (1-1-0), and then 2nd tb gives UVM the nod, 9-8.
----
Sadly, I just don't have time to do the breakouts for 22, 21, and 20 tonight, as I have a big deliverable at work tomorrow and it's almost two.
I assume that Friday night will have me going to bed shortly after the games end as it's going to be a draining day. I'll try to get some time on Saturday to do the analysis before the final night.
In the mean time, if anyone wants to comb through the results above to see if anyone has clinched (or lost) any positions because of all this tie-breaking, feel free to let us know how it turns out. I'm heading to bed.
(Note: USCHO dumped this the first time I tried to post it. That would have been mui sad. Fortunately, this is not my first rodeo and I had it saved in a text file...
Then it was too long so I had to split the post... grrrr...)
Enjoy...
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