Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition
Todd,
WCHA fan here, but I always love your thread. A few comments on the Bu situation. Using Whelan's DIY calculator,
1) If BU wins the series in 3, MC falls to .4991 without considering other results. That's good enough for me to say that it won't change unless there is some very special circumstance somewhere else.
2) You are correct in that that result for MC causes BU to lose some compares. All would not be lost, however.
3)One simple way for that to come back is if Dartmouth would defeat Union next weekend. That really gains BU 2, because they would re-win the Union compare, so it goes both ways. +1 for BU, -1 for Union, and that puts BU at #16. Of course, that's still "bubble"-"ish", so
4)Other possibilities to help BU in that situation are NoDame or UAF (who might play each other) or Wisconsin, all of which can flip without adversely affecting other things down the road.
Huge thanks.
Since the end of the RS, I had: a business trip to NYC, finishing my BerkeleyX Stats homework on the Acela, studying for a professional tech certification, taking the cert exam (passed), presenting at a conference, prepping for the conf the night before with my co-presenter, and I just finished my Stats midterm due at 7:00 am GMT. Oh, and the cert I earned, in combination with a prior cert I have, made me the first person
in the world to get a new capstone certification that is just being released. Had to get the cert in and passed before the conf, since that was part of what we were talking about, so... no pressure.
That said, haven't been able to look at the PWR numbers going into the weekend yet. So, thanks.
Thoughts:
Yes, this is a Hockey East thread, but since BU is the only HE team right around the bubble, that's where I'm going to focus until/unless PC gets closer. Maybe next weekend, we can look at the seeds of the upper three if anyone sees anything interesting. The other three in the playoffs are either auto-bid or out.
Going forward, my discussion points are not assuming that BU
will win. It's just that if they lose, the rest of the discussion is moot, as I expect that they would fall off the bubble. If someone wants to help out and follow that path, please jump in. I've got limited time, so I'll focus on what seems more likely to be of interest.
.4991 isn't irrecoverable in concept. I have seen teams pick up or lose 10-ish points after the QFs begin based on how fluid the SOS is at that point.
For those unfamiliar with estimating some game's impact on your RPI, not only does your own record count, but the records of the teams you
played, and that
they played. If you played a team more than once, the affect on your RPI is multiplied by that amount. Teams in your league have a lot of influence, but
by the time it matters, only the league's collective OOC schedule/record will really matter - plus the exceptions noted below.
The reason for that is that even though you play everyone in your conf multiple times - in this case: HE, and three each - those are a net wash. For conference games you're not in, one of your 3-time-opponents wins, and one loses (or both tie). As far as conference play goes for your opponents - win, lose, or tie - it all comes out to .500. OOC, however, those games can be anywhere from 1.000 to 0.000.
Exceptions to the league impact are:
Conference foes even out each other's influence
unless your team also played a team
out of conference - usually in an in-season tourney. For example, BU and BC did not play in the Beanpot this year, but both played NU. If NU were still playing or in the hunt, their RPI would be more strongly raised or lowered by what BU or BC did than, say, UML or UNH (to pick two), because NU played BU/BC four times, while playing the others only three.
Playoff games within the conference impact a team's RPI for the same reason.
To the point: sure, MC would lose to BU in this scenario, but they will also have played them more often than anyone else in HE (5 or 6 times). That means that if BU goes on to win (or lose) the semi, that raises (or lowers) MC's strength-of-schedule
more than if anyone else in HE were to win or lose. The better that BU, and BU's overall RPI do, the better MC's SOS does... five- or six-fold.
The same would apply to the final. At that point, BU would of course have the auto-bid, but - in theory - MC jumping up from non-TUC to TUC and adding 5 TUC wins to BU's record right when it actually matters might suddenly win a couple, or a few, extra pairs and move them from a 4 to a 3 seed, or even just move them away from playing a #1 overall to a #3 or #4 overall.
Also to be considered is the opponent's-opponents (OOP). For example, on BU's OOC schedule, they played Harvard and North Dakota twice this year. The results of those squads would impact
Merrimack's numbers more than, say SLU, whom BU played just once. Of course, it does not help that Harvard (who also played MC in the RS) lost in three to Dartmouth last weekend, as they are now done.
Oddly though, since Dartmouth played Harvard three extra times and BU played Harvard twice, Dartmouth's ongoing success helps BU by slightly elevating their RPI - but at the same time, BU would like to get the pair back from DC that was lost when Dartmouth beat Harvard in that 3rd game, raising their RPI and dropping BU's. The RPI between the two is actually close enough that it could come down to SOS, even if both had the same results from here out. BU is playing MC who has a lower RPI than Union, Dartmouth's playmate this weekend, but BU could hope to be playing one (or two) of the top three in HE at the Garden while Dartmouth plays not-QU and maybe not-Yale.
Speaking of Union, they were a direct OOC opponent of MC's this year - twice. So while Dartmouth would be marginally affecting with their outcome, Union has more direct effect. Since you posted, #3 has already happened where BU has taken the Union pair. The irony is that Union winning might knock Dartmouth down, but then MC would drop below TUC by BU winning, which would give Union the BU pair, making it a pair-wash - except Union would then have the H2H PWR tb at the 16 spot on the bubble. Then again, two Union wins might pull MC closer to being a TUC again and BU taking that pair back. Maybe best for BU - as far as that series is concerned - is to sweep MC and for DC to beat Union in three - perhaps keeping Union from taking the pair, while dinging DC's RPI enough for BU to grab that as well.
Also of note, as referenced last weekend, BU had a chance to take the AK pair - which they currently lose - even if MC dropped off - if AK lost some more TUCs and/or if LSSU, who tagged a 1-3 on AK could bubble up over .5000. Well, on Sunday, the CCHA was not very kind. AK got taken out in three, but by non-TUC MSU, so that doesn't help BU. Also LSSU lost in three to BGSU, so that possible 1-3 addition to AK's TUC record isn't going anywhere.
In the fourth Sunday game (Harvard's previously mentioned loss to Dartmouth being the other), Alaska-Anchorage (a MC foe) lost to Denver (a BU foe). The difference there is that that was the end of the RS for the WCHA and AA gets to play again this weekend. Also falling in the ECAC playoffs last weekend, MC foes Colgate and Princeton. In the AHA, MC foe Army got taken out by Mercyhurst, but UConn lives on to fight Robt Morris for two.
In addition to the Union pair already flipping for BU, the Notre Dame pair has flipped as well. I don't see how BU takes back the AK pair at this point unless MC revisits TUC after losing two to BU. Wisco is doable if the Badgers lose and DC is possible, but - as noted above - getting DC without also flipping Union (at least after this weekend) could be threading the eye of a needle.
There are some other possibilities, however remote, like UVM bubbling up to a TUC and adding a 2-1-0 record to BU. More likely, what it comes down to is that a lot of the teams that could have helped MC stay up as a TUC got taken out last weekend, including MC themselves in their RS finale. Of the teams that are left, BU's own best helper with MC's RPI may very well be themselves.
), but these players should worry less about checking the numbers on their iPads and just concentrate on winning games. It's not a ludicrous thought for BU to win 2-3 from Merrimack and at least have a good shot to win the following Friday. It's not like the league is great this year and/or has a totally dominant team.
