Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Todd · Mar 9, 2013

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

After Fri 3/8:
PC 3 @ UML 0
ME 4 @ UNH 3
BC 4 @ UVM 4 OT
BU 4 @ NU 2
UMA 3 @ MC 4 OT

UML 32 - 34 [1-4]
--- Home Lock - 32 w/ BU tb / 33 w/o (Top 4) ---
PC 32 - 34 [1-5]
UNH 31 - 33 [2-6]
BC 31 - 33 [1-5]
BU 30 - 32 [2-6]
MC 29 - 31 [4-6]
--- Home Eligible - 31 (BC/UNH) ---
UVM 22 - 24 [7-8]
ME 21 - 23 [7-8]
--- Playoffs ---
UMA 18 - 20 [9]
NU 14 - 16 [10]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules:
UML - @PC
PC - UML
UNH - ME
BC - @UVM
BU - NU
MC - @UMA
UVM - BC
ME - @UNH
UMA - MC
NU - @BU

"You know what would be the most fun tonight? If PC beats Lowell, UNH loses, BC ties, and BU and MC both win."
- Me, at Matthews, during the early part of the first period of tonight's BU@NU game.

Come on... who picks a BC-UVM tie?

Anyone ever read this? If you don't want to read it, here's the summary.

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So half the league scored four goals tonight and another three scored three. The only team to get shutout? The league leader at the start of the night.

Because it's not close or anything.

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Well, UMA made it very close to us having only one Home Ice seed clinched and one team knocked out going into the last night of the season. You've got to give credit to a team that scores three times in the final 4:01 of regulation with their season on the line.

Still, MC pulled it out in OT and - combined with Maine's win - UMA is now locked into 9th place and out of the playoffs.

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Maine also held off a late charge, this time from UNH. With Maine holding a 2-0 lead, the two teams combined for five goals in the final 6:36 of their game, with three goals (one UNH, then two ME) in a 0:42 span at the beginning of that stretch and two EAGs for UNH in the final 1:13. UNH blasted 21 shots in the third to get their three goals, while Maine managed only 5 SOG to get their matching three goals.

The 4-3 victory for ME was enough to both A) put them out of reach of UMA, clinching a playoff spot, and B) draw them a point closer to UVM to keep them alive for a move up to 7th place.

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UVM's tie with BC was tied at 1, 2, 3, and 4, with each team holding a 1-goal lead twice - BC the odds and UVM the evens. The point earned keeps them that far ahead of Maine with the tb in hand.

That leaves UVM's magic number for 7th at 1. There is only one configuration where ME is 7th and UVM 8th - if ME wins and UVM loses. Anything else puts UVM 7th and ME 8th.

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Now... the Top Six.

After tonight's results, we have a pair of 32s, a pair of 31s, a 30, and a 29.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we're not going to see again a team that is in first place going into the final night of the season that has not clinched Home Ice.

Yet that's what we have with PC.

The Friars' win tonight over UML draws them even in points and in the tb. However that H2H tb would only matter if they tie in the final game, which would split the series 1-1-1. In that case, UML wins on "wins". (I'll get into all of the RR tie configurations later.)

If either team wins in the finale, they take the RS title and become the first team outside the Big Four to do so... in Hockey East's 29th season as a conference. (See Season Champion column.)

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If they tie, however, they would both be the first teams to do so. Sure, only one team, whoever it might be can get the 1 seed. But HE lets each team atop the standings raise a championship banner. (Even in the years that there have been co-champs, it has been a pair of the Big Four.)

A tie would give both teams 33 points. The best that either BC or UNH could do would be to equal that point total. That means that the PC win tonight guarantees that we will have the first new team(s) atop the league standings at season's end since BU joined the list in Season 10. They then ran off five straight and six of the next seven - similar to BC's taking six of the league's first seven RS titles.

Too early to say whether UML or PC could repeat such a string... but who's to say they couldn't? Well, their opponent in this season's last game, for starters. Gotta win the first one before you can go on a run...

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If PC loses and stays at 32, they would be behind UML. They could be passed by BC and UNH. They could be caught by BU and lose the tb. PC, currently in 1st could end up 5th and traveling to Agganis for the HE QFs. They can no longer be caught by MC, so 5th is as low as they can go, however.

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Even though MC can no longer catch UML or PC, they could tie either BC or UNH (or both) and leapfrog BU in doing so. In a H2H w/ BC, MC loses 1-2-0, but against UNH they win 2-1-0. So, regardless of the RR outcome at 31, if MC wins, BC gets points, and UNH and BU don't ... MC can still be 4th and get Home Ice.

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BU already could not catch UML or be top seed. They could still end up jumping past BC and UNH and beating PC on the tb at 32, taking the 2nd seed. Or, they could be passed by MC and be 6th.

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BC and UNH could each be left behind by the other, passed by BU and tied by MC for the 5th/6th tb. UNH would be 6th and BC 5th in that scenario.

They could each win to jump over the loser of the UML/PC series. If they do that solo, that's 2nd seed. If they do that together, they would be tied for 2nd at 33. The H2H is 1-1-1 and BC takes the 2nd tb on wins.

If UML/PC tie, then we could have a 3- or 4-way RR at 33. (See RRs below.) If BC and UNH also tied, the four teams would be collectively in the same arrangement as tonight, just one point higher. BC still takes the H2H tb. BU could also be in that tie at 32, so that goes to the RRs in the next post.

Todd · Mar 9, 2013

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

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For the RRs, the only H2H series left among the teams that could still RR is the one between UML and PC. Since the two are currently tied, the only tb that matters is the one where they split the season 1-1-1. In that event, they could be tied by BC, UNH or both. Here's how that turns out:
<table border="1"> <tr><th>RRRs</th><th>UML</th><th>PC</th><th>BC</th><th>UNH</th><th>Total</th></tr> <tr> <td>UML:</td> <td></td><td>1-1-1</td><td>1-2-0</td><td>0-3-0</td> <td>2-6-1</td></tr> <tr> <td>PC:</td> <td>1-1-1</td><td></td><td>1-1-1</td><td>2-0-1</td> <td>4-2-3</td></tr><tr> <td>BC:</td> <td>2-1-0</td><td>1-1-1</td><td></td><td>1-1-1</td> <td>4-3-2</td></tr><tr> <td>UNH:</td> <td>3-0-0</td><td>0-2-1</td><td>1-1-1</td><td></td> <td>4-3-2</td></tr>
</table> In the 4-way RR at 33, PC comes out on top and gets the 1 seed.

That leave us with UML/BC/UNH at 1-5-0/3-2-1/4-1-1. Promote UNH. BC takes UML tb H2H. 4-way RR: PC/UNH/BC/UML.

If the 3-way starts with just BC (must include both PC and UML), we get BC/PC/UML at 3-2-1/2-2-2/2-3-1. Promote BC. As noted above, UML takes H2H w/ PC on wins. BC 1, UML 2, PC 3.

A PC/UML/UNH 3-way goes 3-1-2/1-4-1/3-2-1. PC tops out, then UNH beats UML H2H. PC 1, UNH 2, UML 3.

In this group, the trend is for PC to top UNH who tops UML. BC also tops UML. The exception is that when UNH is not in the mix, PC loses out on a 2-0-1 bump to their RRR and UML gets to dump a 0-3-0 sweep. That drops PC from the top to the bottom.

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At 32, we could have a combination of a UML/PC loser, BC, UNH, and BU. In this grid there will be two totals, one with UML involved, and one with PC. The PC/UML records are dropped, as they are moot for these calculations:

<table border="1"> <tr><th>RRRs</th><th>UML</th><th>PC</th><th>BC</th><th>UNH</th><th>BU</th><th>UML Total</th><th>PC Total</th></tr> <tr> <td>UML:</td> <td></td><td></td><td>1-2-0</td><td>0-3-0</td><td>3-0-0</td><td>4-5-0</td><td></td></tr> <tr><td>PC:</td> <td></td><td></td><td>1-1-1</td><td>2-0-1</td><td>0-2-1</td><td></td><td>3-3-3</td></tr> <tr><td>BC:</td> <td>2-1-0</td><td>1-1-1</td><td></td><td>1-1-1</td><td>2-1-0</td><td>5-3-1</td><td>4-3-2</td></tr> <tr><td>UNH:</td> <td>3-0-0</td><td>0-2-1</td><td>1-1-1</td><td></td><td>2-1-0</td><td>6-2-1</td><td>3-4-2</td></tr> <tr><td>BU:</td> <td>0-3-0</td><td>2-0-1</td><td>1-2-0</td><td>1-2-0</td><td></td><td>2-7-0</td><td>4-4-1</td></tr> </table> In the 4-way RR with UML, UNH gets promoted to the 2 seed. Then, UML/BC/BU gets decided with 4-2-0/4-2-0/1-5-0 UML and BC both beat BU H2H, so whether BU gets pulled first, or the BC/UML tb (BC 2-1-0 over UML) gets decided first, that threesome goes BC/UML/BU, all after UNH at 2.

In the tie configuration w/ PC, it's much closer overall, but BC comes out on top. Then PC/UNH/BU goes as noted the other day, BU/PC/UNH.

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At 31, we could have BC and UNH, plus BU and MC. That would fall out this way:

<table border="1"> <tr><th>RRRs</th><th>BC</th><th>UNH</th><th>BU</th><th>MC</th><th>Total</th></tr> <tr> <td>BC:</td><td></td><td>1-1-1</td><td>2-1-0</td><td>2-1-0</td> <td>5-3-1</td></tr> <tr> <td>UNH:</td><td>1-1-1</td><td></td><td>2-1-0</td><td>1-2-0</td> <td>4-4-1</td></tr><tr> <td>BU:</td><td>1-2-0</td><td>1-2-0</td><td></td><td>3-0-0</td> <td>5-4-0</td></tr> <tr> <td>MC:</td><td>1-2-0</td><td>2-1-0</td><td>0-3-0</td><td></td> <td>3-6-0</td></tr> </table> That promotes BC. Comparing BU/UNH/MC, we get 4-2-0/3-3-0/2-4-0. BU gets promoted next. UNH loses the tb to MC, so the 4-way here goes BC/BU/MC/UNH.

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With the grids available and the examples set here, if there are combos uncovered (like, say BC/UNH/BU at 31 or 32) you can simply do the breakdowns yourself (BC/UNH/BU goes... 3-2-1/3-2-1/2-4-0. Result: BC/UNH/BU as BC takes tb on wins over UNH).

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Tomorrow's configuration brings up some interesting scenarios.

We have discussed in past years (notably 2003-04 and 2004-05) that there might be situations on the final day where coaches need to make decisions that would be quite unconventional - or "crazy" - in other situations. The most common example: pulling your goalie in OT because a tie makes no difference for you - you need the win.

So here's an interesting situation: UNH beats BU on tbs, but only when H2H or in combination w/ BC. In RR combinations with UNH and BU where PC or MC get added in, BU is two games better against each of the latter teams than UNH - and that 2 games is enough to promote BU and leave UNH H2H against a team with whom they have a losing record. UNH not only doesn't beat BU, but they fall behind a second team as well.

Now for UNH to tie BU and MC, that would have to be at 31. That requires a UNH loss. Well, of course Umile would be pulling out the stops to try to move up from losing to tied (on the way to winning). There's no down side.

But in the case of a tie with BU and PC, that would be at 32. If PC loses and BU wins, that would have UNH in a situation where a loss leaves them at 31 and a tie moves them to 32, but they would still be third out of those three in either case. Seemingly, that would mean that they have little to risk by going all out for the win (to jump to 33) over the tie (at 32). That would be one of those pull-your-goalie-in-OT situations.

However, we don't know what BC or MC have done in that setup. If MC wins and/or BC loses, then there are teams at 31 that UNH would want to get past at 32, esp. since they would lose the tbs to either/both of MC/BC. Sure, being at 31 or 32 makes no difference to their BU/PC seeding, but if the risk the tie that brings them to 32 and lose to stay at 31, they could fall another two spots behind BC and MC.

So with these outcomes - PC (lose) and BU (win) at 32, BC (lose) and MC (win) at 31 - UNH's seed would be 2nd (behind UML) with a win; 4th, but still Home Ice with a tie; or 6th with a loss. Their QF opponents would end up as UVM (probably) in a 2v7 match; hosting BC in a 4v5; or travelling down to Agganis (BU over PC for 3rd) with a loss.

With RPI and NCAA PWR at stake, who a team faces in the QFs matters. Would Umile go all out to get 2nd and face UVM? Easier series on paper and the 'Cats went 2-0-1 against the Cat's, but they wouldn't bump RPI as much as playing BC or even coming down to Boston for BU. Of course, wins against a team with a so-so record are better for your RPI than losses against the team with the best RPI in the country, and BC and BU are far from that.

All of that said, if BC is 32 or higher and MC is 30 or lower, then there is no seeding difference between 31 or 32 for UNH. Clearly, they would risk everything in a tie game in order to get the win.

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Here's the problem: Maine and UNH play at 4:00 pm. More than any other team tomorrow, UNH's late game decision making is going to depend on what other teams are doing - but they are playing in a time bubble (and on NESN), so Umile is deprived of the opportunity to take in those results and alter his game plan accordingly, however he might choose to do so.

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Here's another item that could impact all HE teams: MC had drawn dangerously close to the TUC bubble.

As good for HE as it might have been to see UMA pull out the tie, or even win, against MC - keeping 9 teams still fighting for playoff seeds on the final night - a loss would probably have dropped MC below the TUC bubble. Once that happens, the PWR rankings of any HE teams would drop to the degree that their MC record would go over the TUC cliff with them.

In the case of a team like BU, who is hanging around the bubble, they're going to need their 3-0-0 sweep of the Warriors to be in their TUC record if they have a real hope of getting in to the NCAAs without the auto-bid.

The MC win gave them a little breathing room, but let's not forget that there are one or two losses awaiting everyone that makes the playoffs except, perhaps, the team that wins the final - but only if they also swept their QF series.

If MC gets dinged on Saturday, then BU's NCAA hopes go back to not only their own bubble, but MCs.

If the Terriers start losing, that puts them in the dilemma of rooting for their HE-seeding best interests (MC not passing them) that are at odds with their NCAA-tourney-qualification interests (MC winning enough to remain a TUC).

Todd · Mar 9, 2013

Re: Hockey East - Who's in, who's out, who's home: by the numbers - 2012-13 edition

Trivia question going into NU's final game of the season tonight against BU:

What is true of every four-year skater for the men's hockey team at NU from the freshmen arriving in the fall of the the US Bicentennial year through until the graduates of 1991 that is not true of BU's graduating four-year skaters this year?

Priceless · Mar 9, 2013