Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(cont'd from last post)
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With BU and ND each moving up to 25, there are now five teams that can't catch them. Further, for MC to pull even at 25, that would take 4 from UVM's Max, so one of those two also cannot hit 25. Each could still fall to 6th.
This is an interesting pair at this point. They play two to end the RS, so it's important to have the edge going into that series in case there's a split. When BC and UML play next week, the winner of BU/ND will be rooting for UML to help them catch BC, but the loser could be rooting for BC (did I just type that?) to help stave off UML. Lurking in the background, PC is playing UMA twice, so may grab four points on the weekend themselves. So, does BU hope that ND can put a stake in PC tonight, or hope that ND gets dinged so BU could have the edge going into next weekend?
UVM and MC and even UNH are still in the mix for a Bye, but it's looking more and more like last year's scenario where we had five teams fighting for four Byes. It could get ugly if, once again, BU needs a single point from the final game and ND holds on, whether 1-0 (as last year) or any other score. At least this time, these two won't be scoreboard watching BC/UML since that series will be done on Fri.
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UML can pick up four of five points on BC on their own on next week, but they need help from UVM tonight to have a shot at the 1 seed. They also have to hope that BU/ND isn't a sweep either way, and could use some help from PC and UNH tonight to give a little wiggle room. However we slice it, at five points back with three games to play, UML still has a shot at first. At 23, UML can still fall as low as a tie with NU at 8/9. We saw last week that we can't get UML behind a TB and into 9th, and none of that has changed. UML hasn't played in the interim and is still 1-8.
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PC is now, at best, co-champs at 28. We've seen that they don't get the top seed in the big 4/5WTs at 28 that we already covered. In fact, they barely hold on to a Bye.
How high can we get them?
On raw points, we can get them into a tie at 28 with BC with everyone else at 27 or lower. But BC swept them, so they top out at 2nd in the H2H.
If we add in UML, that could take care of balancing the BC sweep, but we saw that that goes UML/BC/PC, which is worse. Is there anyone we can add that gives PC an advantage over BC/UML, but doesn't get promoted first? Well, PC would split with ND, but they already split with BC and UML, and we've seen how that goes (ND gets dropped and we're back to BC/UML/PC). If we add BU, that's better for PC against BC, but not against UML. In any event, BU would get promoted first (4-1-1), so PC isn't better off there.
The best we can get PC is the 2 seed and co-champs, as in the first scenario.
As a floor, we're still looking at UMA, ME, and the CT/UNH loser as the teams that can't pass them. Until PC adds points or NU (or CT/UNH) drop more, that won't change.
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With a Max of 27, UVM now can't catch BC's 28. With BU/ND at 25 with a pair ahead, they can either let one of those two go and hit 3rd, or hope to top out a 3WT at 27. But, UVM split with BU and lost 3-of-4 to ND. Sub-.500 doesn't bring you to the top of that RRR. Adding their split with PC doesn't help. UVM tops out at 3rd.
With 21 in the bank, UVM can't be caught by UMA, ME and the CT/NU loser. That moves their floor up to 9.
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MC jumps a second spot in as many games by leapfrogging UNH. This also puts them clear of ME and the 11 slot.
At the upper end, MC's Max of 25 and BU/ND ahead means that MC can't catch BC or the BU/ND winner. If we have ND sweep BU, MC takes the H2H TB with their sweep. Everyone else can stay behind 25, so MC can still get 3rd.
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With 24 Max, UNH can't reach BC/BU/ND, but they could slip in above UML and the rest of the field to take the 4th slot. They could also be caught by both NU and CT, despite those two having another game to play.
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As a floor, NU is now out of reach of the bottom pair. On the top end, even though I built a grid to show it last week, I spaced on seeing that NU could still get the 4th seed atop a 4WT with UML/PC/MC. Eagle-eyed x1g27s caught that slip. That tie can still happen, so NU can still be 4th and get a Bye.
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With Max 22, however, CT can't.
Four teams are past them. They could tie PC. UVM and MC could either both join that tie at 22, or one of them passes by. They could take care of NU and UNH along the way to limit the damage, but we could add in UNH at 22 (including a CT sweep), if needed.
First off, how does CT do vs PC H2H? They were swept. What about UVM and MC? Splits (1-1-0 and 0-0-2, respectively). The 4WT at 22, trying for 5th, isn't going to work out for CT, as they start off sub-.500.
What if we add in UNH to a 5WT? That balances out the PC sweep, but only draws CT up to .500. Unless everyone else is at .500, and CT comes out on top at TB2 or TB3, that doesn't get them to 5th either. Well, PC is 2-0-0, 1-1-0, 0-1-1 = 3-2-1 against CT, UVM, MC respectively. That's at least one team above .500, so CT doesn't top out there.
CT's only outcomes above .500 would be the UNH sweep and 1-0-1s against UMA (too low) and UML (too high). If we include PC, there just isn't room to make up the damage done by the sweep.
However, since we can't get CT past PC and into 5th, what if we let PC go and tried our luck for 6th with UVM/MC/UNH? Here's that grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]CT[/td][td]MC[/td][td]UVM[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT:[/td][td][/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-1-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td][/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-4[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That's the ticket. By adding UNH to CT's splits with UVM and MC, it puts CT two games over .500. MC comes out at .500 (1-1-4!) and UVM and UNH each end up a game under.
That lets us get CT as high as 6th. That's better than if we let one of UVM/MC go and try to work something out over PC - which won't happen.
CT is also out of reach of ME, after the ME loss dropped their Max below CT's banked points.
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ME can no longer catch NU or CT, snapping the thin tether between ME and UMA and the rest of the league. These two are fighting it out for the bottom pair.
(cont'd from last post)
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With BU and ND each moving up to 25, there are now five teams that can't catch them. Further, for MC to pull even at 25, that would take 4 from UVM's Max, so one of those two also cannot hit 25. Each could still fall to 6th.
This is an interesting pair at this point. They play two to end the RS, so it's important to have the edge going into that series in case there's a split. When BC and UML play next week, the winner of BU/ND will be rooting for UML to help them catch BC, but the loser could be rooting for BC (did I just type that?) to help stave off UML. Lurking in the background, PC is playing UMA twice, so may grab four points on the weekend themselves. So, does BU hope that ND can put a stake in PC tonight, or hope that ND gets dinged so BU could have the edge going into next weekend?
UVM and MC and even UNH are still in the mix for a Bye, but it's looking more and more like last year's scenario where we had five teams fighting for four Byes. It could get ugly if, once again, BU needs a single point from the final game and ND holds on, whether 1-0 (as last year) or any other score. At least this time, these two won't be scoreboard watching BC/UML since that series will be done on Fri.
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UML can pick up four of five points on BC on their own on next week, but they need help from UVM tonight to have a shot at the 1 seed. They also have to hope that BU/ND isn't a sweep either way, and could use some help from PC and UNH tonight to give a little wiggle room. However we slice it, at five points back with three games to play, UML still has a shot at first. At 23, UML can still fall as low as a tie with NU at 8/9. We saw last week that we can't get UML behind a TB and into 9th, and none of that has changed. UML hasn't played in the interim and is still 1-8.
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PC is now, at best, co-champs at 28. We've seen that they don't get the top seed in the big 4/5WTs at 28 that we already covered. In fact, they barely hold on to a Bye.
How high can we get them?
On raw points, we can get them into a tie at 28 with BC with everyone else at 27 or lower. But BC swept them, so they top out at 2nd in the H2H.
If we add in UML, that could take care of balancing the BC sweep, but we saw that that goes UML/BC/PC, which is worse. Is there anyone we can add that gives PC an advantage over BC/UML, but doesn't get promoted first? Well, PC would split with ND, but they already split with BC and UML, and we've seen how that goes (ND gets dropped and we're back to BC/UML/PC). If we add BU, that's better for PC against BC, but not against UML. In any event, BU would get promoted first (4-1-1), so PC isn't better off there.
The best we can get PC is the 2 seed and co-champs, as in the first scenario.
As a floor, we're still looking at UMA, ME, and the CT/UNH loser as the teams that can't pass them. Until PC adds points or NU (or CT/UNH) drop more, that won't change.
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With a Max of 27, UVM now can't catch BC's 28. With BU/ND at 25 with a pair ahead, they can either let one of those two go and hit 3rd, or hope to top out a 3WT at 27. But, UVM split with BU and lost 3-of-4 to ND. Sub-.500 doesn't bring you to the top of that RRR. Adding their split with PC doesn't help. UVM tops out at 3rd.
With 21 in the bank, UVM can't be caught by UMA, ME and the CT/NU loser. That moves their floor up to 9.
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MC jumps a second spot in as many games by leapfrogging UNH. This also puts them clear of ME and the 11 slot.
At the upper end, MC's Max of 25 and BU/ND ahead means that MC can't catch BC or the BU/ND winner. If we have ND sweep BU, MC takes the H2H TB with their sweep. Everyone else can stay behind 25, so MC can still get 3rd.
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With 24 Max, UNH can't reach BC/BU/ND, but they could slip in above UML and the rest of the field to take the 4th slot. They could also be caught by both NU and CT, despite those two having another game to play.
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As a floor, NU is now out of reach of the bottom pair. On the top end, even though I built a grid to show it last week, I spaced on seeing that NU could still get the 4th seed atop a 4WT with UML/PC/MC. Eagle-eyed x1g27s caught that slip. That tie can still happen, so NU can still be 4th and get a Bye.
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With Max 22, however, CT can't.
Four teams are past them. They could tie PC. UVM and MC could either both join that tie at 22, or one of them passes by. They could take care of NU and UNH along the way to limit the damage, but we could add in UNH at 22 (including a CT sweep), if needed.
First off, how does CT do vs PC H2H? They were swept. What about UVM and MC? Splits (1-1-0 and 0-0-2, respectively). The 4WT at 22, trying for 5th, isn't going to work out for CT, as they start off sub-.500.
What if we add in UNH to a 5WT? That balances out the PC sweep, but only draws CT up to .500. Unless everyone else is at .500, and CT comes out on top at TB2 or TB3, that doesn't get them to 5th either. Well, PC is 2-0-0, 1-1-0, 0-1-1 = 3-2-1 against CT, UVM, MC respectively. That's at least one team above .500, so CT doesn't top out there.
CT's only outcomes above .500 would be the UNH sweep and 1-0-1s against UMA (too low) and UML (too high). If we include PC, there just isn't room to make up the damage done by the sweep.
However, since we can't get CT past PC and into 5th, what if we let PC go and tried our luck for 6th with UVM/MC/UNH? Here's that grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]CT[/td][td]MC[/td][td]UVM[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT:[/td][td][/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-1-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td][/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-4[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That's the ticket. By adding UNH to CT's splits with UVM and MC, it puts CT two games over .500. MC comes out at .500 (1-1-4!) and UVM and UNH each end up a game under.
That lets us get CT as high as 6th. That's better than if we let one of UVM/MC go and try to work something out over PC - which won't happen.
CT is also out of reach of ME, after the ME loss dropped their Max below CT's banked points.
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ME can no longer catch NU or CT, snapping the thin tether between ME and UMA and the rest of the league. These two are fighting it out for the bottom pair.
