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Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
- Thread starter Todd
- Start date
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Just for fun I predicted every game left in the HE schedule and came up with these results....Todd have fun with these tiebreakers
BC 33
BU 30
UML 26
ND 26
VT 26
Prov 26
UConn 24
UNH 18
Merr 18
NE 18
Maine 14
UMass 5
Just for fun I predicted every game left in the HE schedule and came up with these results....Todd have fun with these tiebreakers
BC 33
BU 30
UML 26
ND 26
VT 26
Prov 26
UConn 24
UNH 18
Merr 18
NE 18
Maine 14
UMass 5
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
I have some time to kill before a conference call, so...
The three-way for 8th goes like this:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]NU[/td][td]MC[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-1-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]0-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-2[/td][/tr]
[/table]
This one is is pretty simple.
UNH is the best of the 3-way RR, so is promoted to 8th and the final Home series.
NU swept MC, so gets 9th and a trip to UNH.
MC is 10th and goes to UConn.
The four-way for 3rd goes like this:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UML[/td][td]UVM[/td][td]ND[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]?-?-?[/td][td]2-1-1 + ?-?-?[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]?-?-?[/td][td][/td][td]3-1-0 + ?-?-?[/td][/tr]
[/table]
The 4-way tie is tougher, because I don't know what assumptions you made in the PC@ND series, so the RRR grid is incomplete. I tried to reverse engineer your standings, but I seem to have two fewer points to distribute than you ended up with. Both PC and ND have a positive record against the other two, so they're unlikely to both end at the bottom. That said, PC swept UML, so once PC is removed, UML will likely bubble up. However, when we begin, UML is .500 and UVM is below. That means that whichever of PC or ND is more above .500 - which at least one has to be, as they are both there before their series and they either split, or one becomes more positive - they get promoted first. So, we can start there. Ultimately, there are only five outcomes, so let's what we can figure out.
If PC sweeps ND: PC tops the grid at 5-1-0 and is 3rd. In the 3-way, ND is 2-1-1, UML is 3-1-0 and UVM is 0-3-1. Removing PC's sweep of UML lifts the 'Hawks up into 4th by a point over ND. Then ND took three from UVM and would be promoted to 5th. That leaves UVM 6th.
If PC takes 3: 4-1-1 still tops the RRR grid, so we get the same result as above.
If PC/ND split (1-1-0 or 0-0-2): PC gets the nod by a point, and we have the same scenario already covered.
If ND takes 3: ND's 3-1-2 tops PC's 3-2-1. ND is 3rd. In this 3-way, UML is 2-2-0, UVM is 1-3-0, and PC is 3-1-0. PC is 4th. UML swept UVM for 5th. UVM 6th.
If ND sweeps, we get the same outcome as with ND taking 3.
In sum, in this scenario:
If PC splits or better against ND, we have PC, UML, ND, UVM.
If ND wins the series, we have ND, PC, UML, UVM.
Note that, in both cases, as soon as PC gets promoted, UML is next with the removal of the PC sweep that weighs them down.
I have some time to kill before a conference call, so...
The three-way for 8th goes like this:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]NU[/td][td]MC[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-1-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]0-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-2[/td][/tr]
[/table]
This one is is pretty simple.
UNH is the best of the 3-way RR, so is promoted to 8th and the final Home series.
NU swept MC, so gets 9th and a trip to UNH.
MC is 10th and goes to UConn.
The four-way for 3rd goes like this:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UML[/td][td]UVM[/td][td]ND[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]?-?-?[/td][td]2-1-1 + ?-?-?[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]?-?-?[/td][td][/td][td]3-1-0 + ?-?-?[/td][/tr]
[/table]
The 4-way tie is tougher, because I don't know what assumptions you made in the PC@ND series, so the RRR grid is incomplete. I tried to reverse engineer your standings, but I seem to have two fewer points to distribute than you ended up with. Both PC and ND have a positive record against the other two, so they're unlikely to both end at the bottom. That said, PC swept UML, so once PC is removed, UML will likely bubble up. However, when we begin, UML is .500 and UVM is below. That means that whichever of PC or ND is more above .500 - which at least one has to be, as they are both there before their series and they either split, or one becomes more positive - they get promoted first. So, we can start there. Ultimately, there are only five outcomes, so let's what we can figure out.
If PC sweeps ND: PC tops the grid at 5-1-0 and is 3rd. In the 3-way, ND is 2-1-1, UML is 3-1-0 and UVM is 0-3-1. Removing PC's sweep of UML lifts the 'Hawks up into 4th by a point over ND. Then ND took three from UVM and would be promoted to 5th. That leaves UVM 6th.
If PC takes 3: 4-1-1 still tops the RRR grid, so we get the same result as above.
If PC/ND split (1-1-0 or 0-0-2): PC gets the nod by a point, and we have the same scenario already covered.
If ND takes 3: ND's 3-1-2 tops PC's 3-2-1. ND is 3rd. In this 3-way, UML is 2-2-0, UVM is 1-3-0, and PC is 3-1-0. PC is 4th. UML swept UVM for 5th. UVM 6th.
If ND sweeps, we get the same outcome as with ND taking 3.
In sum, in this scenario:
If PC splits or better against ND, we have PC, UML, ND, UVM.
If ND wins the series, we have ND, PC, UML, UVM.
Note that, in both cases, as soon as PC gets promoted, UML is next with the removal of the PC sweep that weighs them down.
Last edited:
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Wednesday's outcome will be very interesting.
If home team UConn wins, they jump up to catch PC and UVM. That leaves us with five teams separated by a point and fighting for the last two byes.
If PC wins, they jump over ND, UML, UVM and into 3rd - which is a remarkable climb in a short period. Even so, we might have to wait for the weekend before we see movement in anyone's ranges, whether victorious PC's, or the MC, NU, ME grouping with games against each other still to come.
With a tie, PC moves into a tie for 3rd at 19 (with ND/UML). CT gets a little more separation from UNH and the rest of the bottom teams, and we would have five teams separated by two points instead of one.
Wednesday's outcome will be very interesting.
If home team UConn wins, they jump up to catch PC and UVM. That leaves us with five teams separated by a point and fighting for the last two byes.
If PC wins, they jump over ND, UML, UVM and into 3rd - which is a remarkable climb in a short period. Even so, we might have to wait for the weekend before we see movement in anyone's ranges, whether victorious PC's, or the MC, NU, ME grouping with games against each other still to come.
With a tie, PC moves into a tie for 3rd at 19 (with ND/UML). CT gets a little more separation from UNH and the rest of the bottom teams, and we would have five teams separated by two points instead of one.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Wed 2/8:
PC 4 @ CT 1
Fri 2/10:
MC @ BC
ND @ ME
UMA @ NU
CT @ PC
BU @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Sat 2/11:
ND @ ME
UMA @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 37[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 34[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]20 - 30[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]19 - 31[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]19 - 29[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]18 - 30[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 26[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 27[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]13 - 25[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]13 - 23[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 21[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 17[/td][td][8-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
PC - CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {5}
ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
CT - @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {5}
UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}
Regular readers of this thread may have noticed that I will occasionally find something in the numbers that at first is an oddity and then becomes a trend. For example, you might remember a few years ago (12-13) when it seemed like nearly every BU game for an extended period had the Terriers either scoring or letting up three goals.
Well, this year it seems that HE teams are scoring at least once late (final 2 mins) in the period of every game for the last couple of weeks, and not just ENGs, either.
On Wednesday, PC added to the trend by scoring with :30 left in the 1st in their 4-1 win over UConn. I don't expect that this trend will continue - but I thought the BU 3-goal thing would be a short-term blip too. (FWIW, in the non-league Beanpot games, NU scored twice on Harvard in the final 2:00: 18:08 of the 2nd on a PPG, and 18:27 on an ENG. BU & BC did not comply.)
In any event, don't sleep on Hockey East.
---
Friday, everyone is on the docket, so we have six league games. Saturday, we drop to three. BC/BU/NU all have the night off for the Beanpot. BU's and NU's Fri opponents match up on Sat in the same Home-road role as Fri, while BC's Fri opponent waits until Tuesday to play again. ND @ ME and UNH @ UVM repeat Fri and Sat. PC and CT don't repeat from Fri, because they played Tue in the first leg of the H/H.
---
PC's Tue win leapfrogged them past three teams (ND/UML/UVM) and into third, solo. Now at 20 points, and with ME (Max 21) and NU (Max 23) still to play two, even if PC loses out, they will either be out of reach of one of those two, or in a three-way tie at 20. PC swept ME and split with NU, so they'd be 3-1-0 in the RR. The ME/NU series would be 1-0-1 ME, leaving Black Bears and Huskies both 1-2-1. RRR = PC/ME/NU.
Adding another team to the RR doesn't make PC drop behind the NU/ME pair. BC and BU are already past 20. PC staying at 20 puts ND above as well with a ND sweep. UMA is already too low. PC already swept UML and UNH, so if either/both are in the mix, it only helps PC's case. That leaves MC, CT, and UVM as possible additions to the RR.
For ME/NU to both hit 20, the only points they can lose are to each other. That leaves a ME sweep of MC, dropping MC's Max to 21. That also means a NU sweep of CT, dropping CT's Max to 22, but they are otherwise free to be at, under, or above 20. UVM has enough clearance that the MC/UVM series could leave either or both at 20. PC and UVM are already at 1-1-0 and CT would take Friday for the split. However, NU and MC are both sub-.500 with UVM, so PC's split is a strength, not a weakness. A thumbnail sketch tells me that UVM, with a winning or better record against the other three (4-1-1), would be the winner in that 4-way (PC: 4-2-0), and then we're back to where we started.
PC is 0-1-1 with MC but already has a 6-3-3 lead in points over NU/ME. Still, that looks the most promising to ding the Friars relative to NU/ME, so let's start there. MC would get swept by ME and was already swept by NU. Let's see the grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Adding MC makes up the 3-point difference for both NU and ME (2 wins to PC's MC tie), but all that does it take this 4-way RRR and put into a 3-way tie at the top among the same three teams we started with. Same result, with PC atop this 4-way.
CT split with ME (0-0-2) and ME (1-1-0) to match the PC split (1-1-0), but NU would sweep CT, so that could spread this jam differently. Adding to the MC mix, we have:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]PC[/td][td]CT[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-4-3[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]5-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]2-4-2[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That promotes NU and we redo the next four.
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]PC[/td][td]CT[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-2-3[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]2-2-2[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That leaves PC as the only team above .500 and the next promoted. We can end there, as we're just trying to see if PC can fall to 11.
This all means that the worst PC could do is trail one of NU/ME, rather than coming out ahead of two or more in the various RRRs. Still, PC passes one of the two as well, plus UMA, so their range is now 1-10.
---
With ND/UML/UVM sitting right behind PC, that NU/ME series also means that any of those three getting to 21 this weekend would also at least move their lower range up to 10. Getting to 20 might also get them there if, as with PC, they top the tb. We'll leave those RRRs until we know more.
(cont'd in next post)
After Wed 2/8:
PC 4 @ CT 1
Fri 2/10:
MC @ BC
ND @ ME
UMA @ NU
CT @ PC
BU @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Sat 2/11:
ND @ ME
UMA @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 37[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 34[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]20 - 30[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]19 - 31[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]19 - 29[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]18 - 30[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 26[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 27[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]13 - 25[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]13 - 23[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 21[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 17[/td][td][8-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
PC - CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {5}
ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
CT - @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {5}
UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}
Regular readers of this thread may have noticed that I will occasionally find something in the numbers that at first is an oddity and then becomes a trend. For example, you might remember a few years ago (12-13) when it seemed like nearly every BU game for an extended period had the Terriers either scoring or letting up three goals.
Well, this year it seems that HE teams are scoring at least once late (final 2 mins) in the period of every game for the last couple of weeks, and not just ENGs, either.
On Wednesday, PC added to the trend by scoring with :30 left in the 1st in their 4-1 win over UConn. I don't expect that this trend will continue - but I thought the BU 3-goal thing would be a short-term blip too. (FWIW, in the non-league Beanpot games, NU scored twice on Harvard in the final 2:00: 18:08 of the 2nd on a PPG, and 18:27 on an ENG. BU & BC did not comply.)
In any event, don't sleep on Hockey East.
---
Friday, everyone is on the docket, so we have six league games. Saturday, we drop to three. BC/BU/NU all have the night off for the Beanpot. BU's and NU's Fri opponents match up on Sat in the same Home-road role as Fri, while BC's Fri opponent waits until Tuesday to play again. ND @ ME and UNH @ UVM repeat Fri and Sat. PC and CT don't repeat from Fri, because they played Tue in the first leg of the H/H.
---
PC's Tue win leapfrogged them past three teams (ND/UML/UVM) and into third, solo. Now at 20 points, and with ME (Max 21) and NU (Max 23) still to play two, even if PC loses out, they will either be out of reach of one of those two, or in a three-way tie at 20. PC swept ME and split with NU, so they'd be 3-1-0 in the RR. The ME/NU series would be 1-0-1 ME, leaving Black Bears and Huskies both 1-2-1. RRR = PC/ME/NU.
Adding another team to the RR doesn't make PC drop behind the NU/ME pair. BC and BU are already past 20. PC staying at 20 puts ND above as well with a ND sweep. UMA is already too low. PC already swept UML and UNH, so if either/both are in the mix, it only helps PC's case. That leaves MC, CT, and UVM as possible additions to the RR.
For ME/NU to both hit 20, the only points they can lose are to each other. That leaves a ME sweep of MC, dropping MC's Max to 21. That also means a NU sweep of CT, dropping CT's Max to 22, but they are otherwise free to be at, under, or above 20. UVM has enough clearance that the MC/UVM series could leave either or both at 20. PC and UVM are already at 1-1-0 and CT would take Friday for the split. However, NU and MC are both sub-.500 with UVM, so PC's split is a strength, not a weakness. A thumbnail sketch tells me that UVM, with a winning or better record against the other three (4-1-1), would be the winner in that 4-way (PC: 4-2-0), and then we're back to where we started.
PC is 0-1-1 with MC but already has a 6-3-3 lead in points over NU/ME. Still, that looks the most promising to ding the Friars relative to NU/ME, so let's start there. MC would get swept by ME and was already swept by NU. Let's see the grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Adding MC makes up the 3-point difference for both NU and ME (2 wins to PC's MC tie), but all that does it take this 4-way RRR and put into a 3-way tie at the top among the same three teams we started with. Same result, with PC atop this 4-way.
CT split with ME (0-0-2) and ME (1-1-0) to match the PC split (1-1-0), but NU would sweep CT, so that could spread this jam differently. Adding to the MC mix, we have:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]PC[/td][td]CT[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-4-3[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]5-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]2-4-2[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That promotes NU and we redo the next four.
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]PC[/td][td]CT[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-2-3[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-0-2[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]2-2-2[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That leaves PC as the only team above .500 and the next promoted. We can end there, as we're just trying to see if PC can fall to 11.
This all means that the worst PC could do is trail one of NU/ME, rather than coming out ahead of two or more in the various RRRs. Still, PC passes one of the two as well, plus UMA, so their range is now 1-10.
---
With ND/UML/UVM sitting right behind PC, that NU/ME series also means that any of those three getting to 21 this weekend would also at least move their lower range up to 10. Getting to 20 might also get them there if, as with PC, they top the tb. We'll leave those RRRs until we know more.
(cont'd in next post)
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(cont'd from last post)
---
UConn's loss Maxes them at 26, which means they can't catch BC's banked 27 and can no longer be top seed.
Last week, we figured out that BC could be behind 5 teams, but that relied on CT taking at least 3 from PC and staying in the mix. Actually, we sacrificed PC (since they played both ND and CT) and gave CT a sweep to be clear of 27. Since CT lost 2 to PC and is sub-27, how does that impact BC?
Well, now that CT is out, we can still get 5 teams clear of 27 without needing to get into tbs.
We already saw that UVM (Max 30) and UNH (27) play two, so only one of those can reach (UNH or UVM) or surpass (UVM only) 27. We wrote off UNH last time because they also play CT. Now that CT is out of play, we could also add in UNH to a RR at 27, but a) they didn't come out ahead of any of those, b) their sweep by BC doesn't lessen BC's chances in any scenario, and c) they would pull down UVM.
So, the teams behind BC are the bottom six.
ND and PC can split, bringing PC's max to 28 and ND's to 29. PC can win out to hit 28. UVM can win out for 30. BU (Max 34, 3 games with ND and UML), ND (29 and BUx2), and UML (29 and BUx1) have enough points to spread that each can be at 28 or above. Example: BU takes only one from both and ND/UML end up at 28 while BU only loses 4 points off their Max.
BC is still 1-6, but now we have identified the other five teams, which makes it easier going forward. There are only four points to spare above 28 for these five teams, so BC moving to 28 or 29 will move them up into at least a tie for 5th (28) or a Bye (29). Losses of more than four points among the others would also likely give BC a Bye. Maybe more, maybe less, depending on distribution of games and points, and tbs available.
---
Similarly, BU hasn't clinched home ice yet, but with 4 teams below 26 Max, a Terrier win gives them a home series. A BU win plus bad outcomes for CT and UNH looks to separate BU from the bottom six and move BU up to 1-6.
---
At the bottom end, we can still have UNH, NU, MC, ME all end up below UMA at 17, leaving UMA a shot at 8th and a home series. In fact, they can all end up at 15 or below at this point (15x3 & 13 or 15x2 & 14x2), so UMA still has a little wiggle room. However, one loss by UMA drops their Max to 15 and we're looking at tie-breaks and rapidly approaching a lock on no-better-than 10, then 11, then 12.
(cont'd from last post)
---
UConn's loss Maxes them at 26, which means they can't catch BC's banked 27 and can no longer be top seed.
Last week, we figured out that BC could be behind 5 teams, but that relied on CT taking at least 3 from PC and staying in the mix. Actually, we sacrificed PC (since they played both ND and CT) and gave CT a sweep to be clear of 27. Since CT lost 2 to PC and is sub-27, how does that impact BC?
Well, now that CT is out, we can still get 5 teams clear of 27 without needing to get into tbs.
We already saw that UVM (Max 30) and UNH (27) play two, so only one of those can reach (UNH or UVM) or surpass (UVM only) 27. We wrote off UNH last time because they also play CT. Now that CT is out of play, we could also add in UNH to a RR at 27, but a) they didn't come out ahead of any of those, b) their sweep by BC doesn't lessen BC's chances in any scenario, and c) they would pull down UVM.
So, the teams behind BC are the bottom six.
ND and PC can split, bringing PC's max to 28 and ND's to 29. PC can win out to hit 28. UVM can win out for 30. BU (Max 34, 3 games with ND and UML), ND (29 and BUx2), and UML (29 and BUx1) have enough points to spread that each can be at 28 or above. Example: BU takes only one from both and ND/UML end up at 28 while BU only loses 4 points off their Max.
BC is still 1-6, but now we have identified the other five teams, which makes it easier going forward. There are only four points to spare above 28 for these five teams, so BC moving to 28 or 29 will move them up into at least a tie for 5th (28) or a Bye (29). Losses of more than four points among the others would also likely give BC a Bye. Maybe more, maybe less, depending on distribution of games and points, and tbs available.
---
Similarly, BU hasn't clinched home ice yet, but with 4 teams below 26 Max, a Terrier win gives them a home series. A BU win plus bad outcomes for CT and UNH looks to separate BU from the bottom six and move BU up to 1-6.
---
At the bottom end, we can still have UNH, NU, MC, ME all end up below UMA at 17, leaving UMA a shot at 8th and a home series. In fact, they can all end up at 15 or below at this point (15x3 & 13 or 15x2 & 14x2), so UMA still has a little wiggle room. However, one loss by UMA drops their Max to 15 and we're looking at tie-breaks and rapidly approaching a lock on no-better-than 10, then 11, then 12.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Fri 2/10:
MC 6 @ BC 3
ND 3 @ ME 2
UMA 2 @ NU 6
CT 3 @ PC 4
BU 2 @ UML 3
UNH 4 @ UVM 2
Sat 2/11:
ND @ ME
UMA @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC/UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 35[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 32[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr][/table]
--- Home Lock – 24 (UNH/CT) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 30[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]21 - 31[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]21 - 29[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]18 - 28[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]17 - 27[/td][td][2-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 24[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]15 - 25[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]15 - 23[/td][td][4-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 21 (ND/UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 19[/td][td][7-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 16 (CT) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 15[/td][td][10-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
ND - @ME, PCx2, @BUx2 {5}
UML - UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {4}
UVM - UNH, @BCx2, MCx2 {5}
UNH - @UVM, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {5}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - ND, @MCx2, NUx2 {5}
UMA - @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {5}
MC (3rd) and BC (1st) both scored late. ME scored late (EAG 3rd) vs ND. UMA (1st) and NU (2nd) did, too. UNH got the ENG with :01 left. Despite BU having a 5x3 for most of the last 2:00 of the 1st, they did not score late - although they followed up with a 3x5 shortie to begin the 2nd. UML had an ENG on its way when the final horn went off, but ultimately, UML v BU had no late goals. CT and PC also had no lates. Still, six late goals from six league games.
---
BC and BU losing let the 3, 4, and 5 teams - who all won - move a little closer. UVM's loss to UNH now makes them separated by only a point. UVM used to be in 3rd just a couple of weeks ago, right?
That UNH win also jumped them ahead of CT while winners MC and NU pulled closer to CT.
Going into their face off, ME had a Max of 21 and ND had 19 pts. Those numbers swapped. ME and UMA are becoming more separated from the rest of the field. Considering ME's sweep of UMA for the H2H tb, they are looking more and more like seeds 11 and 12. At least everyone makes the playoffs, I guess.
---
It should be noted that MC is now 3-0-1 against top two (BC/BU), but 0-3-0 so far against the bottom three (UMA, ME, NU)
---
Going in to Friday's play, we had figured out where BC stood for range.
---
Even though BU lost, there is still some good news in Terrier Nation based on other teams losing as well. UMA (Max 15), ME (19), and NU (23) are all already behind BU's 24. CT's loss drops their Max to 24. Without looking at CT v BU tbs, CT's new Max means that the coming UNH (27) v CT series puts one of those two at 23 or below. That's now four teams that have to be behind BU, so BU clinches a Home series.
MC (25) and UVM (28) also play a pair, meaning that one of them has to fall to 24 or lower. However, MC has the H2H tb, so BU doesn't move their range up another notch. UVM and UNH finish their series tomorrow, but that doesn't necessarily impact BU's range since they are in different pairs here.
BU split with CT and UVM, but was swept by MC and would be swept by UNH to stay at 24. None of those tbs look promising for the Terriers, whether H2H or RRR. Given that, I'm fine with saving all that TB and RRR time for tonight and saying that BU has clinched 1-8, but that's it.
---
PC's 22 pts put them ahead of UMA (15) and ME (19). CT (24) and NU (23) play a pair, which means one of them has to be 21 or below. That's a 3rd team, so PC is 1-9.
---
At 21, ND and UML move ahead of ME's 19 to go to 1-10.
CT split with ND and would lose on TB2 (CT would have 5 ties to ND's 3), but was 1-0-1 vs UML.
NU split with UML (and would lose TB2 3 ties to 1), but was 0-1-1 vs ND.
It's clear that UML could still come out at the bottom of the CT tb, so UML stays 1-10.
ND would win either a CT or NU tb, but what about RRRs?
Of the other four teams who could be at 21, ND's results are 1-0-1 vs UVM and UNH (and NU, above) and 1-1-0 vs UML and MC (and CT, above). For ND to still be 1-10 (and not 1-9), they would have to lose every promotion out of the RRR, including the last H2H. If that's with UVM, UNH or NU, ND isn't last. They win on TB2 (above) vs CT, and would similarly beat MC - in part because CT and MC tied twice, splitting 0-0-2 instead of 1-1-0. However, UML is one win ahead of ND, and if they both stayed at 21, that wouldn't change. UML would beat ND on TB2.
Can we find a RRR (that includes at least one of CT or NU) that puts UML v ND as the final two?
Well, UML/ND/NU has UML splitting with both, so ND's above-.500 record promotes ND. UML/ND/CT has UML at 1-2-1, ND at 2-2-0 and CT at 2-1-1. CT is promoted, then UML takes ND on TB2.
Which means ND can still be 10th. ND: 1-10.
---
It seems like UVM (Max 28) can still be the 1 seed, but we showed before that we can bury BC under a five-way tie at 28. Can we distribute those points at the top to get UVM to either 28 solo, or winning the tbs?
Sure. In the BC case, we were trying to maximize the teams at the top to see if they could all pass BC. Now, we're trying to minimize the teams at the top to see if they can stay behind UVM. They can, and with plenty of room.
On the other end of the spectrum, we can still get everyone but UMA ahead of UVM's 18.
That leaves UVM at 1-11.
---
Similarly, there is still room for UNH to get ahead of everyone but one (covered earlier that UNH can't win a tb at 27), but they can no longer be caught by UMA. All-but-one at both ends = 2-11.
---
For CT, BC is uncatchable. BU (at 24) and ND (at 21) play two, so at least one of them has to have 25. That's two teams ahead. The best that CT can do with BU is tie, so it's tempting to just let BU go and keep ND behind with a BU sweep. Still, with PC now at 22 and ND/PC on tap for two, that also means that one of them has to at least have 24.
That leaves us with either BU staying at 24 and ND passing by, which lets us leave PC back, or BU passing 24 and either PC or ND in a tie at 24. Does CT have a chance against any of them in a tb?
CT split with BU and ND (both 1-1-0), but was swept by PC. BU (2 ties) would take CT (4 ties) on TB2, but ND would have to add a 4th tie to hit 24. At TB3, ND split with BC and CT was swept. However, here we'd have to have BU sweep ND, which might let them get to the top seed. In that case, CT's split would top ND's 0-2-0 vs BU and take TB3.
So, if BU wins out and passes or ties BC (BU sweep would be the tb) for the top seed, and ND takes 3 of 4 from PC, we could have CT in as the 3 seed. CT now can't be caught by UMA, so their range is 3-11.
(cont'd in next post)
After Fri 2/10:
MC 6 @ BC 3
ND 3 @ ME 2
UMA 2 @ NU 6
CT 3 @ PC 4
BU 2 @ UML 3
UNH 4 @ UVM 2
Sat 2/11:
ND @ ME
UMA @ UML
UNH @ UVM
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC/UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 35[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 32[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr][/table]
--- Home Lock – 24 (UNH/CT) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 30[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]21 - 31[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]21 - 29[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]18 - 28[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]17 - 27[/td][td][2-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 24[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]15 - 25[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]15 - 23[/td][td][4-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 21 (ND/UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 19[/td][td][7-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 16 (CT) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 15[/td][td][10-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
ND - @ME, PCx2, @BUx2 {5}
UML - UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {4}
UVM - UNH, @BCx2, MCx2 {5}
UNH - @UVM, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {5}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - ND, @MCx2, NUx2 {5}
UMA - @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {5}
MC (3rd) and BC (1st) both scored late. ME scored late (EAG 3rd) vs ND. UMA (1st) and NU (2nd) did, too. UNH got the ENG with :01 left. Despite BU having a 5x3 for most of the last 2:00 of the 1st, they did not score late - although they followed up with a 3x5 shortie to begin the 2nd. UML had an ENG on its way when the final horn went off, but ultimately, UML v BU had no late goals. CT and PC also had no lates. Still, six late goals from six league games.
---
BC and BU losing let the 3, 4, and 5 teams - who all won - move a little closer. UVM's loss to UNH now makes them separated by only a point. UVM used to be in 3rd just a couple of weeks ago, right?
That UNH win also jumped them ahead of CT while winners MC and NU pulled closer to CT.
Going into their face off, ME had a Max of 21 and ND had 19 pts. Those numbers swapped. ME and UMA are becoming more separated from the rest of the field. Considering ME's sweep of UMA for the H2H tb, they are looking more and more like seeds 11 and 12. At least everyone makes the playoffs, I guess.
---
It should be noted that MC is now 3-0-1 against top two (BC/BU), but 0-3-0 so far against the bottom three (UMA, ME, NU)
---
Going in to Friday's play, we had figured out where BC stood for range.
Given the night's results, we can change that to:
That puts all five of those teams at exactly 28 to BC's 27. Any movement from these six teams that isn't described above means that BC will start looking at TBs or just move past some of these cleanly. For now, however, BC is still 1-6.
---
Even though BU lost, there is still some good news in Terrier Nation based on other teams losing as well. UMA (Max 15), ME (19), and NU (23) are all already behind BU's 24. CT's loss drops their Max to 24. Without looking at CT v BU tbs, CT's new Max means that the coming UNH (27) v CT series puts one of those two at 23 or below. That's now four teams that have to be behind BU, so BU clinches a Home series.
MC (25) and UVM (28) also play a pair, meaning that one of them has to fall to 24 or lower. However, MC has the H2H tb, so BU doesn't move their range up another notch. UVM and UNH finish their series tomorrow, but that doesn't necessarily impact BU's range since they are in different pairs here.
BU split with CT and UVM, but was swept by MC and would be swept by UNH to stay at 24. None of those tbs look promising for the Terriers, whether H2H or RRR. Given that, I'm fine with saving all that TB and RRR time for tonight and saying that BU has clinched 1-8, but that's it.
---
PC's 22 pts put them ahead of UMA (15) and ME (19). CT (24) and NU (23) play a pair, which means one of them has to be 21 or below. That's a 3rd team, so PC is 1-9.
---
At 21, ND and UML move ahead of ME's 19 to go to 1-10.
CT split with ND and would lose on TB2 (CT would have 5 ties to ND's 3), but was 1-0-1 vs UML.
NU split with UML (and would lose TB2 3 ties to 1), but was 0-1-1 vs ND.
It's clear that UML could still come out at the bottom of the CT tb, so UML stays 1-10.
ND would win either a CT or NU tb, but what about RRRs?
Of the other four teams who could be at 21, ND's results are 1-0-1 vs UVM and UNH (and NU, above) and 1-1-0 vs UML and MC (and CT, above). For ND to still be 1-10 (and not 1-9), they would have to lose every promotion out of the RRR, including the last H2H. If that's with UVM, UNH or NU, ND isn't last. They win on TB2 (above) vs CT, and would similarly beat MC - in part because CT and MC tied twice, splitting 0-0-2 instead of 1-1-0. However, UML is one win ahead of ND, and if they both stayed at 21, that wouldn't change. UML would beat ND on TB2.
Can we find a RRR (that includes at least one of CT or NU) that puts UML v ND as the final two?
Well, UML/ND/NU has UML splitting with both, so ND's above-.500 record promotes ND. UML/ND/CT has UML at 1-2-1, ND at 2-2-0 and CT at 2-1-1. CT is promoted, then UML takes ND on TB2.
Which means ND can still be 10th. ND: 1-10.
---
It seems like UVM (Max 28) can still be the 1 seed, but we showed before that we can bury BC under a five-way tie at 28. Can we distribute those points at the top to get UVM to either 28 solo, or winning the tbs?
Sure. In the BC case, we were trying to maximize the teams at the top to see if they could all pass BC. Now, we're trying to minimize the teams at the top to see if they can stay behind UVM. They can, and with plenty of room.
On the other end of the spectrum, we can still get everyone but UMA ahead of UVM's 18.
That leaves UVM at 1-11.
---
Similarly, there is still room for UNH to get ahead of everyone but one (covered earlier that UNH can't win a tb at 27), but they can no longer be caught by UMA. All-but-one at both ends = 2-11.
---
For CT, BC is uncatchable. BU (at 24) and ND (at 21) play two, so at least one of them has to have 25. That's two teams ahead. The best that CT can do with BU is tie, so it's tempting to just let BU go and keep ND behind with a BU sweep. Still, with PC now at 22 and ND/PC on tap for two, that also means that one of them has to at least have 24.
That leaves us with either BU staying at 24 and ND passing by, which lets us leave PC back, or BU passing 24 and either PC or ND in a tie at 24. Does CT have a chance against any of them in a tb?
CT split with BU and ND (both 1-1-0), but was swept by PC. BU (2 ties) would take CT (4 ties) on TB2, but ND would have to add a 4th tie to hit 24. At TB3, ND split with BC and CT was swept. However, here we'd have to have BU sweep ND, which might let them get to the top seed. In that case, CT's split would top ND's 0-2-0 vs BU and take TB3.
So, if BU wins out and passes or ties BC (BU sweep would be the tb) for the top seed, and ND takes 3 of 4 from PC, we could have CT in as the 3 seed. CT now can't be caught by UMA, so their range is 3-11.
(cont'd in next post)
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(cont'd from last post)
---
Even though MC's extra GIH over CT has them a point behind in the standings yet a Max point ahead (25), they are in the same situation as CT. With the interplay between BU/ND/PC, MC could either be in a 4-way tie at 25, or one of those three has to pass them at the expense of the other two. MC swept BU, but was swept by PC, and split with ND. Unless everyone has a mutual .500, MC's 3-3-0 won't let them be promoted first out of that RRR. For them all to be at 25, ND has to take 3 from BU and 1 from PC.
In that case, BU (0-2-0, 1-0-1, 0-1-1 = 1-3-1) is sub-.500, which means that someone(s) else has to be above .500, so we're done. MC can't be 2nd, so might as well let ND escape with all the points and keep BU and PC below for MC in 3rd.
MC could still be caught by UMA, and in so doing would lose a H2H sweep. MC is 3-12.
---
NU matches MC's 15, but only has a Max of 23. BC and BU are out of reach and either of ND/PC has to reach 24. That's three they can't catch.
The flip side is that NU swept UMA (so wins H2H tb) and MC (so wins that 3-way RRR). However, they could be swept by ME to have a NU/ME/UMA 3-way RRR. Still, that means ME swept the other two and gets promoted, which brings us back to NU v UMA for last, taken by NU. So, NU can't be passed by UMA. NU is 4-11.
---
ME's Max 19 now drops them behind five teams, meaning they can't get a Bye. With UVM (18) and UNH (17) playing again, one of them has to hit 19 by Sunday morning. UNH and CT (16) also have to have a 19-pointer, as do UVM/MC(15). CT/NU(15) has to at least hit 18, but CT also has the UNH series to consider.
ME has to tie either UVM or MC. ME lost 0-1-1 to UVM, but would sweep MC to Max out. So move MC up to 19. To keep UVM at 18, we have to move UNH up, but that also means UNH can soak up all the CT points, so CT and NU can both stay below 19. That means six teams ME can't pass and a tb win at 7 as the best case for ME. With only 9 in the bank, ME can easily be caught by UMA, despite their H2H sweep TB. ME is 7-12.
Remember when we talked about surges the other week? Well, Maine just dropped four spots off the top of their range in one night.
---
We've covered that there are nine teams that can't be caught by UMA (all the non-12s at the bottom of ranges), leaving just MC and ME to be passed.
UMA drops two spots from the top of their range and - finally - succumbs to being our first official Road team at 10-12. Cue Willy Nelson...
(cont'd from last post)
---
Even though MC's extra GIH over CT has them a point behind in the standings yet a Max point ahead (25), they are in the same situation as CT. With the interplay between BU/ND/PC, MC could either be in a 4-way tie at 25, or one of those three has to pass them at the expense of the other two. MC swept BU, but was swept by PC, and split with ND. Unless everyone has a mutual .500, MC's 3-3-0 won't let them be promoted first out of that RRR. For them all to be at 25, ND has to take 3 from BU and 1 from PC.
In that case, BU (0-2-0, 1-0-1, 0-1-1 = 1-3-1) is sub-.500, which means that someone(s) else has to be above .500, so we're done. MC can't be 2nd, so might as well let ND escape with all the points and keep BU and PC below for MC in 3rd.
MC could still be caught by UMA, and in so doing would lose a H2H sweep. MC is 3-12.
---
NU matches MC's 15, but only has a Max of 23. BC and BU are out of reach and either of ND/PC has to reach 24. That's three they can't catch.
The flip side is that NU swept UMA (so wins H2H tb) and MC (so wins that 3-way RRR). However, they could be swept by ME to have a NU/ME/UMA 3-way RRR. Still, that means ME swept the other two and gets promoted, which brings us back to NU v UMA for last, taken by NU. So, NU can't be passed by UMA. NU is 4-11.
---
ME's Max 19 now drops them behind five teams, meaning they can't get a Bye. With UVM (18) and UNH (17) playing again, one of them has to hit 19 by Sunday morning. UNH and CT (16) also have to have a 19-pointer, as do UVM/MC(15). CT/NU(15) has to at least hit 18, but CT also has the UNH series to consider.
ME has to tie either UVM or MC. ME lost 0-1-1 to UVM, but would sweep MC to Max out. So move MC up to 19. To keep UVM at 18, we have to move UNH up, but that also means UNH can soak up all the CT points, so CT and NU can both stay below 19. That means six teams ME can't pass and a tb win at 7 as the best case for ME. With only 9 in the bank, ME can easily be caught by UMA, despite their H2H sweep TB. ME is 7-12.
Remember when we talked about surges the other week? Well, Maine just dropped four spots off the top of their range in one night.
---
We've covered that there are nine teams that can't be caught by UMA (all the non-12s at the bottom of ranges), leaving just MC and ME to be passed.
UMA drops two spots from the top of their range and - finally - succumbs to being our first official Road team at 10-12. Cue Willy Nelson...
The Zlax45
Registered User
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Actually Todd, Merrimack is 4-0-2 when you throw PC in with BU/BC...crazy
Actually Todd, Merrimack is 4-0-2 when you throw PC in with BU/BC...crazy
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
I'm betting your predictions did not include Merrimack beating BC
I'm betting your predictions did not include Merrimack beating BC
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Sat 2/11:
ND 4 @ ME 2
UMA 2 @ UML 4
UNH 3 @ UVM 5
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC + UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 35[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 32[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]23 - 31[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]23 - 29[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 30[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]20 - 28[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]17 - 25[/td][td][3-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 24[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]15 - 25[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]15 - 23[/td][td][5-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH tb) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 17[/td][td][9-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 13[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
ND - PCx2, @BUx2 {4}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
UVM - @BCx2, MCx2 {4}
UNH - @BU, BU, CT, @CT {4}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - @MCx2, NUx2 {4}
UMA - MC, UML, PC, @PC {4}
Saturday's results went to the higher seeds. ND and UML won and jumped back ahead of PC, while UVM won to maintain contact with the upper half and put a little distance on the bottom half.
With only four games remaining for most teams, the next two weekends each have two huge series in the top half. UVM takes a trip to BC next weekend, and ND hosts PC. The final weekend has the current top 4 playing each other with BU hosting ND and BC/UML in a H/H series. It should be noted that the PC series is the final RS HE weekend at Compton and the Irish play their final RS HE games ever at Agganis.
---
With four (UML has three) games left, each of the top five teams controls their own fate for a Bye, and the 6th is really close. Obviously, the teams with the top four Maxes do. Win out and you're still in the top four. However, even though UML only has three games left, they still have a Max of 29. With ND(31)/PC(30) playing two, at least one of those has to drop to 28, meaning UML can win out and get at least 4th.
UVM, at Max 28, can set up a nearly comparable scenario and doesn't quite control their own fate, but needs the stars to align to not do so. If they hit 28, it means that they swept BC and knocked the Eagles' Max from 35 to 31. Then, when BC and UML play the final weekend, every result but one has one of them dropping below 28. If UML sweeps, that means that BC has gone 0-for-5 to finish the RS and stays at 27, and below UVM's chance at 28. If BC takes a game or more, they have cleared UVM's Max of 28, but UML has a Max of 27 or lower. If UML takes 3-of-4, both BC and UML would be at 28 with UVM. Then UML would be 3-0-1 in the trio, get promoted, and leave UVM to top BC with the sweep from the week before. So, UVM can pass either BC or UML on their own. But BU, ND, PC, and BC/UML could still be ahead of them.
Or could they? ND(31) plays both of BU(32) and PC(30). For ND and PC to both be able to top UVM's Max after they meet, it's either ND(29)/PC(28), or ND(28)/PC(29). Then ND has to play BU. So that either knocks ND below UVM's Max, or brings BU down to 29 or 28, depending on where the ND/PC series leaves ND for wiggle room. That interplay could knock either of PC or ND (or both) below UVM, or draw BU down into a tie (all of which assumes that UNH and UMA haven't dinged BU and PC, respectively). We could get some combination of 29/28/28 among BU/ND/PC.
In the tbs and RRRs, UVM has split with both BU and PC. Assume that's the tie at 28, BU/PC/UVM (meaning ND could be 29). The three teams currently have the same number of ties (so also could match wins). BU and UVM would have swept BC (if they are top seed), but PC was swept by BC. PC would get dropped, and UVM would be ahead of both PC and UML (if BC is top seed and UVM is at 28, then UML lost the BC series). The pending BU/UVM tie would be for 3/4, and we would move to record vs ND at 2. UVM went 0-1-1 against ND, but BU might have done the same or worse to be at 28. That still has some flex, so we can't decide this yet. If UML is the top seed (and BC is under the tie breakers at 27), then PC swept UML and gets promoted (BU split, UVM was swept). That puts us back to the TBD TB between BU and UVM.
If it's BU and ND at 28 with UVM (and PC at 29 above), then ND would have winning records against both BU and UVM and get promoted up. Now we're back to the BU/UVM tb we just looked at twice, but it's for 4/5 (BC/UML, PC, ND ahead).
All of this means that we can't be sure whether UVM controls their own fate. Which means that they don't, because there is still some muddiness whether they might not. But it's really, really close. We don't want to be in the situation that NESN was in a couple of years ago (2012-13) where they said UNH had cliched home ice, but forgot to include the possibility of UNH tying in the afternoon of the final day and losing a 3WT. Oops... If only they read this thread, because we all knew they were wrong. But if I had a dollar for every time Tom Caron said something wrong about a college hockey stat or factoid, I'd be retired and living in Belize right now.
If someone wants to take the above thinking further into all the possible point distributions and possible seeds to show that UVM has, in fact, control over their own fate, be my guest. Otherwise, I'll just wait until a) UVM loses, b) BU loses points to UNH, which means we don't have points to spare at 29/28/28, c) the PC/ND Saturday game, if their split can't be 29/28 anymore, d) PC loses points to UMA, again breaking the 29/28/28 possibility, or e) the possibilities are limited enough that we can look to a narrower range of math.
So, what do we know for each team's range?
---
With ND, UML, and UVM all winning and BU/PC idle, idle BC's fortunes don't change. We knew these five were the only ones who could drop them to 6 and everyone playing won. Still same scenario as last post. Still a possible 5-way tie at 28 with BC at 27. BC stays 1-6.
---
We have a similar situation with BU. We know that they're ahead of UMA, ME, NU and the loser of CT/UNH.
UNH's loss only drops their Max to 25, but they can sweep CT, then BU and hit 25. They even have room to drop a point to CT and win the tb w/ BU at 24.
MC (Max 25) and UVM (28) still have to play, but UVM won Saturday, leaving a UVM 25/MC 24 finish still possible. MC's sweep of BU would dump BU to 8th here, with or without UNH joining the tie at 24.
BU still 1-8.
---
ND and UML, at 23, have slipped into the space between BU (at 24) and PC (at 22). If BU'S 24 has them at 1-8, these two won't be any higher at 23, but could they move up to 1-9? Could they win tbs and match BU's 1-8?
Who is behind them already to be at 1-10? UMA and ME. The loser of the CT(24)/UNH(25) series Maxes at 22 or lower, so - yes - there is a third team that can't catch the pair and they move to 1-9. We've seen that UVM/MC can still both top 23. PC would be ahead if ND is at 23, by giving PC 4 more points, and BC and BU are already ahead. Five teams ahead and three below. One of these two could pass the other, so that's a 6th team ahead. The loser of UNH/CT is behind, but the winner could be ahead, so that's a 7th team ahead.
CT and NU also have to play, but if we have CT lose both the UNH and NU series, then UNH can top ND/UML and NU can tie.
That leaves both ND and UML with up to seven teams ahead, three definitely below and a possible tie with NU.
Lets look at each in turn to see if they have clinched 8th and a home series or can still be 9th at the bottom of a tie-break at 23.
(cont'd in next post)
After Sat 2/11:
ND 4 @ ME 2
UMA 2 @ UML 4
UNH 3 @ UVM 5
Mon 2/13:
Beanpot is non-conference
NU v BC
HU v BU
Tue 2/14:
MC @ UMA
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC + UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 35[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 32[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]23 - 31[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]23 - 29[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 30[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]20 - 28[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]17 - 25[/td][td][3-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 24[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]15 - 25[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]15 - 23[/td][td][5-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH tb) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 17[/td][td][9-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 13[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - (v HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
ND - PCx2, @BUx2 {4}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
UVM - @BCx2, MCx2 {4}
UNH - @BU, BU, CT, @CT {4}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
MC - @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {5}
NU - (v BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - @MCx2, NUx2 {4}
UMA - MC, UML, PC, @PC {4}
Saturday's results went to the higher seeds. ND and UML won and jumped back ahead of PC, while UVM won to maintain contact with the upper half and put a little distance on the bottom half.
With only four games remaining for most teams, the next two weekends each have two huge series in the top half. UVM takes a trip to BC next weekend, and ND hosts PC. The final weekend has the current top 4 playing each other with BU hosting ND and BC/UML in a H/H series. It should be noted that the PC series is the final RS HE weekend at Compton and the Irish play their final RS HE games ever at Agganis.
---
With four (UML has three) games left, each of the top five teams controls their own fate for a Bye, and the 6th is really close. Obviously, the teams with the top four Maxes do. Win out and you're still in the top four. However, even though UML only has three games left, they still have a Max of 29. With ND(31)/PC(30) playing two, at least one of those has to drop to 28, meaning UML can win out and get at least 4th.
UVM, at Max 28, can set up a nearly comparable scenario and doesn't quite control their own fate, but needs the stars to align to not do so. If they hit 28, it means that they swept BC and knocked the Eagles' Max from 35 to 31. Then, when BC and UML play the final weekend, every result but one has one of them dropping below 28. If UML sweeps, that means that BC has gone 0-for-5 to finish the RS and stays at 27, and below UVM's chance at 28. If BC takes a game or more, they have cleared UVM's Max of 28, but UML has a Max of 27 or lower. If UML takes 3-of-4, both BC and UML would be at 28 with UVM. Then UML would be 3-0-1 in the trio, get promoted, and leave UVM to top BC with the sweep from the week before. So, UVM can pass either BC or UML on their own. But BU, ND, PC, and BC/UML could still be ahead of them.
Or could they? ND(31) plays both of BU(32) and PC(30). For ND and PC to both be able to top UVM's Max after they meet, it's either ND(29)/PC(28), or ND(28)/PC(29). Then ND has to play BU. So that either knocks ND below UVM's Max, or brings BU down to 29 or 28, depending on where the ND/PC series leaves ND for wiggle room. That interplay could knock either of PC or ND (or both) below UVM, or draw BU down into a tie (all of which assumes that UNH and UMA haven't dinged BU and PC, respectively). We could get some combination of 29/28/28 among BU/ND/PC.
In the tbs and RRRs, UVM has split with both BU and PC. Assume that's the tie at 28, BU/PC/UVM (meaning ND could be 29). The three teams currently have the same number of ties (so also could match wins). BU and UVM would have swept BC (if they are top seed), but PC was swept by BC. PC would get dropped, and UVM would be ahead of both PC and UML (if BC is top seed and UVM is at 28, then UML lost the BC series). The pending BU/UVM tie would be for 3/4, and we would move to record vs ND at 2. UVM went 0-1-1 against ND, but BU might have done the same or worse to be at 28. That still has some flex, so we can't decide this yet. If UML is the top seed (and BC is under the tie breakers at 27), then PC swept UML and gets promoted (BU split, UVM was swept). That puts us back to the TBD TB between BU and UVM.
If it's BU and ND at 28 with UVM (and PC at 29 above), then ND would have winning records against both BU and UVM and get promoted up. Now we're back to the BU/UVM tb we just looked at twice, but it's for 4/5 (BC/UML, PC, ND ahead).
All of this means that we can't be sure whether UVM controls their own fate. Which means that they don't, because there is still some muddiness whether they might not. But it's really, really close. We don't want to be in the situation that NESN was in a couple of years ago (2012-13) where they said UNH had cliched home ice, but forgot to include the possibility of UNH tying in the afternoon of the final day and losing a 3WT. Oops... If only they read this thread, because we all knew they were wrong. But if I had a dollar for every time Tom Caron said something wrong about a college hockey stat or factoid, I'd be retired and living in Belize right now.
If someone wants to take the above thinking further into all the possible point distributions and possible seeds to show that UVM has, in fact, control over their own fate, be my guest. Otherwise, I'll just wait until a) UVM loses, b) BU loses points to UNH, which means we don't have points to spare at 29/28/28, c) the PC/ND Saturday game, if their split can't be 29/28 anymore, d) PC loses points to UMA, again breaking the 29/28/28 possibility, or e) the possibilities are limited enough that we can look to a narrower range of math.
So, what do we know for each team's range?
---
With ND, UML, and UVM all winning and BU/PC idle, idle BC's fortunes don't change. We knew these five were the only ones who could drop them to 6 and everyone playing won. Still same scenario as last post. Still a possible 5-way tie at 28 with BC at 27. BC stays 1-6.
---
We have a similar situation with BU. We know that they're ahead of UMA, ME, NU and the loser of CT/UNH.
UNH's loss only drops their Max to 25, but they can sweep CT, then BU and hit 25. They even have room to drop a point to CT and win the tb w/ BU at 24.
MC (Max 25) and UVM (28) still have to play, but UVM won Saturday, leaving a UVM 25/MC 24 finish still possible. MC's sweep of BU would dump BU to 8th here, with or without UNH joining the tie at 24.
BU still 1-8.
---
ND and UML, at 23, have slipped into the space between BU (at 24) and PC (at 22). If BU'S 24 has them at 1-8, these two won't be any higher at 23, but could they move up to 1-9? Could they win tbs and match BU's 1-8?
Who is behind them already to be at 1-10? UMA and ME. The loser of the CT(24)/UNH(25) series Maxes at 22 or lower, so - yes - there is a third team that can't catch the pair and they move to 1-9. We've seen that UVM/MC can still both top 23. PC would be ahead if ND is at 23, by giving PC 4 more points, and BC and BU are already ahead. Five teams ahead and three below. One of these two could pass the other, so that's a 6th team ahead. The loser of UNH/CT is behind, but the winner could be ahead, so that's a 7th team ahead.
CT and NU also have to play, but if we have CT lose both the UNH and NU series, then UNH can top ND/UML and NU can tie.
That leaves both ND and UML with up to seven teams ahead, three definitely below and a possible tie with NU.
Lets look at each in turn to see if they have clinched 8th and a home series or can still be 9th at the bottom of a tie-break at 23.
(cont'd in next post)
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
(cont'd from last post)
---
UML's tb with NU H2H would go to UML on TB2: 1-1-0 split, UML has only 1 tie to NU's 3 (so UML would have more wins). For UML, we could add in any of MC, UNH, UVM, and one of PC or ND to try to put them at the bottom of the stack. We can't add CT because a) we need a loser of UNH/CT and b) if NU hits 23, then CT can't. It goes along with sacrificing CT to keep UNH and NU both up.
UML swept MC, UNH, and UVM, so those won't help. UML was swept by PC, but PC/NU split. That breaks the UML/NU tie in NU's favor (1-3-0 to 2-2-0), but it's even better for PC (3-1-0). PC gets promoted out of a 3WT and we're back to UVM over NU H2H. Maybe PC would help in a 4+WT, but let's finish the 3s. UML also split with ND, but ND took 3 from NU, so that doesn't help bury UML. The only teams that UML didn't sweep were PC and ND, but we can only have one of those. The only remaining thing that could help is keeping PC, which breaks the UML/NU tie in records in NU's favor, but adding a 4th team that pulls PC down and leaves UML at the bottom of the stack. Since UML swept everyone else, NU also has to take at least three to keep the lead on UML.
NU was swept by UVM and lost 3 to UNH (0-1-1). They did, however, match UML with a MC sweep. MC did take 3 from PC, so maybe this will work. If it doesn't, we've exhausted everything else. It should be noted that MC being swept by both NU and UML means they're unlikely to be promoted before either of those in a 4WT. Here's the grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UML[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-2-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That does promote NU out, which buries MC a little less. Removing the NU split leaves UML at .500. However, PC did manage a point from MC to go with their sweep of UML. That puts PC at 2-1-1 and MC at 1-2-1. PC gets promoted and UML takes the final tb with MC on their H2H sweep.
So we can not get UML to the bottom of any RRR and into 9th. UML is 1-8 and clinches a home series.
---
ND takes NU 1-0-1 H2H. For ND, we could add in any of MC, UNH, UVM, or UML to try to put them at the bottom of the stack. We can't add CT for the reasons above. We can't add PC because ND at 23 means PC at least at 26. ND split with MC and UML, and went 1-0-1 against UNH and UVM. If NU doesn't have a better record mixed into those opponents, we're done here.
NU swept MC. That 3WT would have NU 2-1-1, ND 2-1-1, and MC 1-3-0. That drops MC and puts us back to ND over NU. However, it does have NU make up the ground on ND H2H, and so is a good basis to add a 4th team. Since ND doesn't have a worse record than .500 against anyone here, and has a one game lead over NU H2H, we can't hope to have a better result for NU in a 3WT. We have to add a 4th (or more) if we're going to drop ND in the RRRs.
UML split with ND and NU and swept MC. That doesn't elevate NU and buries MC further behind ND.
UNH took 3 from NU while losing 3 to ND. UNH's record against MC (1-0-1) finishes moving everything in the wrong direction, by burying NU and MC further and elevating ND.
UVM also lost 3 to ND, so the only way to move up against the Irish is by sweeping UVM. MC could do that, but that only improves them 1 pt vs ND, and they need to make up more than that to get ahead. UML swept UVM, but they're already ahead of the pack (split, split, sweep + new sweep). NU actually loses ground to ND by a UVM sweep dropping them back.
So, no matter how we do it, we can't get ND behind a tie of any number of teams at 23. That puts another, fourth, team behind them.
ND has now moved up to 1-8 and clinched at least one final HE playoff series for the home fans in South Bend.
* (note: before I realized that CT couldn't be in the mix, I had us in a 6WT (ND/NU/MC/CT/UML/UVM) before proving that ND couldn't be caught. Then I had to redo the whole thing for both UML - who got dropped to 9th by including CT - and ND - who doesn't need a 6WT breaker grid. Didn't need that two hours anyway...)
---
The next one is mercifully short, if we have CT lose to both UNH and NU, then PC - at 22 - can be behind everyone but UMA, ME, and CT. PC stays 1-9.
---
The squeeze is getting tighter for UVM, but they can still top the table solo at 28. Either a UVM win or a ME loss would mean ME couldn't catch UVM. Both happened, and that remains true. Other than that, we've seen that everyone else but the CT/UNH loser can be above 23. Can we get all of UNH, CT and NU to be above UVM at 20? Sure. If UNH sweeps BU, that puts them at 21. That leaves CT free to sweep UNH up to 20. CT can take a point or two from NU, who can pick up the rest from Maine to have them all top 20. UVM is 1-10.
---
For UNH, one of BU or ND now has to top 25. Also, one of ND or PC has to reach it. If we let ND take both, then we can limit the damage to UNH's seeding be limited to trailing two for a range ceiling of 3.
As for their floor, it's a tie at 17 with ME, which they swept. Can we add anyone to that tie to drop UNH to 11? The top six are already ahead of 17. If UNH is at 17, CT has passed it. UMA is already too low and we're already accounting for ME. That leaves NU and/or MC.
Since ME is already down 2 games to UNH, adding one team won't do better than tie UNH, so let's go for the whole shootin' match at once. To hit 17, MC would have to sweep both MC and NU. That gives ME a 4-2-0 record, which is good. UNH went 1-0-1 against both MC and NU, which puts them at 4-0-2, which is better. UNH can't come out of the bottom of a tie at 17 for 11th. UNH is now 3-10.
---
For CT, we run into the same BU/ND and ND/PC issue, except that BU is already at CT's Max of 24. If we let BU take the BU/ND points to get ahead of the tie, we still have to deal with ND/PC winner being at 25 or higher. So CT's best chance is the ND runaway and a tie with BU or others. CT and BU split H2H, but BU wins on TB2 (2 ties to 4). Is there anyone that CT did better than BU against that wouldn't be promoted out first of a 3WT - and can hit 24? Yep. CT took 3 from UML, but BU split. CT 2-1-1, BU 2-2-0, UML 1-2-1. CT gets 3rd.
For CT to be at 16, NU would pass them H2H. MC would only need 2 pts and ME could still pass them by winning out. CT stays put at 3-11.
---
MC still has an anomalous five games left, so their ceiling matches UNH's, but their floor is below CT's. Like UNH their ceiling is 3. Even though they are below CT, they now can't be caught by UMA after the Minutemen's loss, so their floor is, like CT's, 11.
---
NU also has to deal with the BU/ND, ND/PC issue, except that BU is already past them and ND and UML are already at 23. We've already seen that NU loses H2H with each of ND and UML. If they lose to each independently, they won't be promoted first out of a 3WT either. We've also seen that a PC/UVM/NU split goes in that order, so adding PC doesn't help. Adding ND to that mix doesn't help NU. Further, as we have seen, adding UVM and/or UNH doesn't help NU. Adding MC helps NU against ND, but not against UML.
In sum: BC and BU are already out of reach. ND and UML are already at 23, and either PC or ND has to be above that. Keeping ND at 23 doesn't help NU in any RRRs, so might as well keep PC below. Still, NU can't get past UML either. For all the reasons that ND and UML can't drop to 9th, it's tiebreakers with NU, et al. that were the deciding factor. The reciprocal of that is that NU can't pass either, can't get to 4th, and can't get a Bye. NU is playing somewhere the first weekend, but not at Mullins. Range 5-11.
---
The ME loss dropped them behind all of the top six, plus the UNH/CT winner (19+). They also now have to be behind the CT/NU winner (18+). That's eight teams they can't catch. If we have CT soak all the points, ME's best chance is to win the tb at 17 with UNH... except they were swept by UNH. UMA is too far back to help in a RRR. That leaves only NU or MC to move up to help with a 3WT, or both in a 4WT. As it turns out, those are the two teams that ME has left to play. ME at their Max means they swept both clubs. They need all the help they can get to dig out of the hole against UNH (who must be in the group). That grid goes:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]ME[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td][/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]4-0-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-5-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]4-2-0[/td][/tr]
[/table]
As we saw in the UNH section, ME's 4-2-0 is good, but UNH's 4-0-2 is better. We can't get ME past UNH, which now makes the UNH/CT series irrelevant here. Assume UNH wins, since they can't be caught. All that's left to matter is the CT/NU winner and the CT/NU loser. ME can get past UMA, MC, and the CT/NU loser. That also means they can't host a series. Range: 9-12
---
UMA was already looking at ME as the only team they could catch. That is still true.
(cont'd from last post)
---
UML's tb with NU H2H would go to UML on TB2: 1-1-0 split, UML has only 1 tie to NU's 3 (so UML would have more wins). For UML, we could add in any of MC, UNH, UVM, and one of PC or ND to try to put them at the bottom of the stack. We can't add CT because a) we need a loser of UNH/CT and b) if NU hits 23, then CT can't. It goes along with sacrificing CT to keep UNH and NU both up.
UML swept MC, UNH, and UVM, so those won't help. UML was swept by PC, but PC/NU split. That breaks the UML/NU tie in NU's favor (1-3-0 to 2-2-0), but it's even better for PC (3-1-0). PC gets promoted out of a 3WT and we're back to UVM over NU H2H. Maybe PC would help in a 4+WT, but let's finish the 3s. UML also split with ND, but ND took 3 from NU, so that doesn't help bury UML. The only teams that UML didn't sweep were PC and ND, but we can only have one of those. The only remaining thing that could help is keeping PC, which breaks the UML/NU tie in records in NU's favor, but adding a 4th team that pulls PC down and leaves UML at the bottom of the stack. Since UML swept everyone else, NU also has to take at least three to keep the lead on UML.
NU was swept by UVM and lost 3 to UNH (0-1-1). They did, however, match UML with a MC sweep. MC did take 3 from PC, so maybe this will work. If it doesn't, we've exhausted everything else. It should be noted that MC being swept by both NU and UML means they're unlikely to be promoted before either of those in a 4WT. Here's the grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UML[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-2-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
That does promote NU out, which buries MC a little less. Removing the NU split leaves UML at .500. However, PC did manage a point from MC to go with their sweep of UML. That puts PC at 2-1-1 and MC at 1-2-1. PC gets promoted and UML takes the final tb with MC on their H2H sweep.
So we can not get UML to the bottom of any RRR and into 9th. UML is 1-8 and clinches a home series.
---
ND takes NU 1-0-1 H2H. For ND, we could add in any of MC, UNH, UVM, or UML to try to put them at the bottom of the stack. We can't add CT for the reasons above. We can't add PC because ND at 23 means PC at least at 26. ND split with MC and UML, and went 1-0-1 against UNH and UVM. If NU doesn't have a better record mixed into those opponents, we're done here.
NU swept MC. That 3WT would have NU 2-1-1, ND 2-1-1, and MC 1-3-0. That drops MC and puts us back to ND over NU. However, it does have NU make up the ground on ND H2H, and so is a good basis to add a 4th team. Since ND doesn't have a worse record than .500 against anyone here, and has a one game lead over NU H2H, we can't hope to have a better result for NU in a 3WT. We have to add a 4th (or more) if we're going to drop ND in the RRRs.
UML split with ND and NU and swept MC. That doesn't elevate NU and buries MC further behind ND.
UNH took 3 from NU while losing 3 to ND. UNH's record against MC (1-0-1) finishes moving everything in the wrong direction, by burying NU and MC further and elevating ND.
UVM also lost 3 to ND, so the only way to move up against the Irish is by sweeping UVM. MC could do that, but that only improves them 1 pt vs ND, and they need to make up more than that to get ahead. UML swept UVM, but they're already ahead of the pack (split, split, sweep + new sweep). NU actually loses ground to ND by a UVM sweep dropping them back.
So, no matter how we do it, we can't get ND behind a tie of any number of teams at 23. That puts another, fourth, team behind them.
ND has now moved up to 1-8 and clinched at least one final HE playoff series for the home fans in South Bend.
* (note: before I realized that CT couldn't be in the mix, I had us in a 6WT (ND/NU/MC/CT/UML/UVM) before proving that ND couldn't be caught. Then I had to redo the whole thing for both UML - who got dropped to 9th by including CT - and ND - who doesn't need a 6WT breaker grid. Didn't need that two hours anyway...)
---
The next one is mercifully short, if we have CT lose to both UNH and NU, then PC - at 22 - can be behind everyone but UMA, ME, and CT. PC stays 1-9.
---
The squeeze is getting tighter for UVM, but they can still top the table solo at 28. Either a UVM win or a ME loss would mean ME couldn't catch UVM. Both happened, and that remains true. Other than that, we've seen that everyone else but the CT/UNH loser can be above 23. Can we get all of UNH, CT and NU to be above UVM at 20? Sure. If UNH sweeps BU, that puts them at 21. That leaves CT free to sweep UNH up to 20. CT can take a point or two from NU, who can pick up the rest from Maine to have them all top 20. UVM is 1-10.
---
For UNH, one of BU or ND now has to top 25. Also, one of ND or PC has to reach it. If we let ND take both, then we can limit the damage to UNH's seeding be limited to trailing two for a range ceiling of 3.
As for their floor, it's a tie at 17 with ME, which they swept. Can we add anyone to that tie to drop UNH to 11? The top six are already ahead of 17. If UNH is at 17, CT has passed it. UMA is already too low and we're already accounting for ME. That leaves NU and/or MC.
Since ME is already down 2 games to UNH, adding one team won't do better than tie UNH, so let's go for the whole shootin' match at once. To hit 17, MC would have to sweep both MC and NU. That gives ME a 4-2-0 record, which is good. UNH went 1-0-1 against both MC and NU, which puts them at 4-0-2, which is better. UNH can't come out of the bottom of a tie at 17 for 11th. UNH is now 3-10.
---
For CT, we run into the same BU/ND and ND/PC issue, except that BU is already at CT's Max of 24. If we let BU take the BU/ND points to get ahead of the tie, we still have to deal with ND/PC winner being at 25 or higher. So CT's best chance is the ND runaway and a tie with BU or others. CT and BU split H2H, but BU wins on TB2 (2 ties to 4). Is there anyone that CT did better than BU against that wouldn't be promoted out first of a 3WT - and can hit 24? Yep. CT took 3 from UML, but BU split. CT 2-1-1, BU 2-2-0, UML 1-2-1. CT gets 3rd.
For CT to be at 16, NU would pass them H2H. MC would only need 2 pts and ME could still pass them by winning out. CT stays put at 3-11.
---
MC still has an anomalous five games left, so their ceiling matches UNH's, but their floor is below CT's. Like UNH their ceiling is 3. Even though they are below CT, they now can't be caught by UMA after the Minutemen's loss, so their floor is, like CT's, 11.
---
NU also has to deal with the BU/ND, ND/PC issue, except that BU is already past them and ND and UML are already at 23. We've already seen that NU loses H2H with each of ND and UML. If they lose to each independently, they won't be promoted first out of a 3WT either. We've also seen that a PC/UVM/NU split goes in that order, so adding PC doesn't help. Adding ND to that mix doesn't help NU. Further, as we have seen, adding UVM and/or UNH doesn't help NU. Adding MC helps NU against ND, but not against UML.
In sum: BC and BU are already out of reach. ND and UML are already at 23, and either PC or ND has to be above that. Keeping ND at 23 doesn't help NU in any RRRs, so might as well keep PC below. Still, NU can't get past UML either. For all the reasons that ND and UML can't drop to 9th, it's tiebreakers with NU, et al. that were the deciding factor. The reciprocal of that is that NU can't pass either, can't get to 4th, and can't get a Bye. NU is playing somewhere the first weekend, but not at Mullins. Range 5-11.
---
The ME loss dropped them behind all of the top six, plus the UNH/CT winner (19+). They also now have to be behind the CT/NU winner (18+). That's eight teams they can't catch. If we have CT soak all the points, ME's best chance is to win the tb at 17 with UNH... except they were swept by UNH. UMA is too far back to help in a RRR. That leaves only NU or MC to move up to help with a 3WT, or both in a 4WT. As it turns out, those are the two teams that ME has left to play. ME at their Max means they swept both clubs. They need all the help they can get to dig out of the hole against UNH (who must be in the group). That grid goes:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]ME[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td][/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]4-0-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-5-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]4-2-0[/td][/tr]
[/table]
As we saw in the UNH section, ME's 4-2-0 is good, but UNH's 4-0-2 is better. We can't get ME past UNH, which now makes the UNH/CT series irrelevant here. Assume UNH wins, since they can't be caught. All that's left to matter is the CT/NU winner and the CT/NU loser. ME can get past UMA, MC, and the CT/NU loser. That also means they can't host a series. Range: 9-12
---
UMA was already looking at ME as the only team they could catch. That is still true.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Actually it looks like NU is still alive for a bye but it's a real long shot, it requires a 4-way tie for 4th at 23 points with NU, UML, MC, and PC. ND would go into top three. NU wins this tie with 4-2-0 record (PC 3-2-1, UML 3-3-0, MC 1-4-1). NU could also sweep its remaining games and end up 9th at 23 points. So they don't control very much.
Actually it looks like NU is still alive for a bye but it's a real long shot, it requires a 4-way tie for 4th at 23 points with NU, UML, MC, and PC. ND would go into top three. NU wins this tie with 4-2-0 record (PC 3-2-1, UML 3-3-0, MC 1-4-1). NU could also sweep its remaining games and end up 9th at 23 points. So they don't control very much.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
So... that whole grid that I did at the top of the 2nd half of the prior post that proves your point? That scenario...?
Yep. Good catch.
So... that whole grid that I did at the top of the 2nd half of the prior post that proves your point? That scenario...?
Yep. Good catch.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Correct me if I am wrong but with 3 games to go it is possible for a 5 way tie for first. Who would win that? A 5 way tie is possible at 28. BC loses all 3. PC wins 3. ND takes 3 points from BU. BU beats UNH. Lowell ties Amherst out there. It is not all that unlikely.
Correct me if I am wrong but with 3 games to go it is possible for a 5 way tie for first. Who would win that? A 5 way tie is possible at 28. BC loses all 3. PC wins 3. ND takes 3 points from BU. BU beats UNH. Lowell ties Amherst out there. It is not all that unlikely.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
Extremely unlikely, but I like the way you think.
Extremely unlikely, but I like the way you think.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Tue 2/14:
MC 3 @ UMA 0
Fri Feb 17:
UVM @ BC
UNH @ BU
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
NU @ CT
Sat Feb 18:
UVM @ BC
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
CT @ NU
UML @ UMA
BU @ UNH
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC + UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 35[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 32[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]23 - 31[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]23 - 29[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 30[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]20 - 28[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]17 - 25[/td][td][3-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]17 - 25[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 24[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]15 - 23[/td][td][4-11][/td][/tr][/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---
--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH/MC/CT tb) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 17[/td][td][9-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 11[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
ND - PCx2, @BUx2 {4}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
UVM - @BCx2, MCx2 {4}
UNH - @BU, BU, CT, @CT {4}
MC - MEx2, @UVMx2 {4}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
NU - @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - @MCx2, NUx2 {4}
UMA - UML, PC, @PC {3}
For the sake of completeness, here's the standings after Tuesday's matchup. No hurry to get the results out because:
a) UMA - win or lose - doesn't really impact anyone but UMA and ME anymore. The UMA loss just makes it less likely for the two to swap seeds.
b) The MC win does jump them over CT, but otherwise doesn't change much. MC's Min is now ME's Max, but - as of Tuesday night - they still have two to play. If ME catches MC, they would have the TB with a sweep. This leaves MC still at 3-11.
The Road line changes a little because one would now have to beat the UNH/CT loser at 16 or higher and also pass/tie MC at 17.
I also corrected for dropping NU under Bye Eligible
---
Shortest.
Analysis.
Ever.
After Tue 2/14:
MC 3 @ UMA 0
Fri Feb 17:
UVM @ BC
UNH @ BU
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
NU @ CT
Sat Feb 18:
UVM @ BC
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
CT @ NU
UML @ UMA
BU @ UNH
--- Bye Lock – 29 (ND/PC + UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 35[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 32[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]23 - 31[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]23 - 29[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 30[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]20 - 28[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]17 - 25[/td][td][3-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]17 - 25[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 24[/td][td][3-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]15 - 23[/td][td][4-11][/td][/tr][/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---
--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH/MC/CT tb) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 17[/td][td][9-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 11[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - UVMx2, UML, @UML {4}
BU - UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {4}
ND - PCx2, @BUx2 {4}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {4}
UVM - @BCx2, MCx2 {4}
UNH - @BU, BU, CT, @CT {4}
MC - MEx2, @UVMx2 {4}
CT - NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {4}
NU - @CT, CT, @MEx2 {4}
ME - @MCx2, NUx2 {4}
UMA - UML, PC, @PC {3}
For the sake of completeness, here's the standings after Tuesday's matchup. No hurry to get the results out because:
a) UMA - win or lose - doesn't really impact anyone but UMA and ME anymore. The UMA loss just makes it less likely for the two to swap seeds.
b) The MC win does jump them over CT, but otherwise doesn't change much. MC's Min is now ME's Max, but - as of Tuesday night - they still have two to play. If ME catches MC, they would have the TB with a sweep. This leaves MC still at 3-11.
The Road line changes a little because one would now have to beat the UNH/CT loser at 16 or higher and also pass/tie MC at 17.
I also corrected for dropping NU under Bye Eligible
---
Shortest.
Analysis.
Ever.
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition
After Fri Feb 17:
UVM 3 @ BC 3 (OT)
UNH 4 @ BU 4 (OT)
ME 3 @ MC 4 (OT)
PC 1 @ ND 4
NU 3 @ CT 0
Sat Feb 18:
UVM @ BC
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
CT @ NU
UML @ UMA
BU @ UNH
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]28 - 34[/td][td][1-4][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Lock – 28 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]25 - 31[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]25 - 31[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]23 - 29[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 28[/td][td][2-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]21 - 27[/td][td][3-9][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]19 - 25[/td][td][3-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]18 - 24[/td][td][4-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]17 - 23[/td][td][4-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 22[/td][td][6-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH/MC/CT tb) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 15[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 11[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - UVM, UML, @UML {3}
BU - @UNH, NDx2 {3}
ND - PC, @BUx2 {3}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @ND, @UMA, UMA {3}
UVM - @BC, MCx2 {3}
MC - ME, @UVMx2 {3}
UNH - BU, CT, @CT {3}
CT - @NU, @UNH, UNH {3}
NU - CT, @MEx2 {3}
ME - @MC, NUx2 {3}
UMA - UML, PC, @PC {3}
UVM scored three unanswered to match BC's trio at Conte. Being outshot 8-2 and trailing 2-0, BU outshot UNH 42-18 for the rest of the game and wrested a 4-4 tie at Agganis. After giving up two goals :20 apart, MC trailed 3-0 at home - then scored three straight to draw OT and scored their fourth unanswered in OT for the win. ND turned a squeaker with PC into a blowout with three unanswered in the 3rd at home. NU scored three unanswered because CT didn't score at all in the 3-0 decision at Matthews.
So four of the five Friday games had strings of 3+ goals scored by at least one of the teams (UVM and BC both did it, as did ME/MC), while BU played "two for you, two for me, two for you, two for me" with UNH.
We have also, at three games left, finally cleared up all the GIH differences. BC and UML will throw that off next week as their series is Thu-Fri with everyone else having Fri-Sat RS finales.
---
We have been talking about BC looking up at a 28-point logjam, but now they have reached 28 themselves. So where does the Eagles' range fall after Friday?
For starters, they are now out of reach of UVM, so at worst has to deal with four other teams (BU, ND, UML, PC), making their floor 5th place before we look at TBs. We can get the top three of them to 29, but if we can't get the Eagles behind all four, BC has wrapped up a Bye.
With Maxes of 31(BU), 31(ND), 29(UML) and 28(PC), it seems like there might be some flexibility there. However, with all three of ND's remaining games being against other teams in this mix, that eats up six points that ND/BU/PC have to lose. There are only seven points to spare above 28 among the four, and zero on PC's end. That said, BU and ND have the most leeway, so we should have room for a massive RR.
To get BC under all four, we need PC to win out (28) and get ahead of BC in TBs. PC beating ND drops the Irish Max to 29. That leaves ND with only one point to spare against BU. BU dropping three points to ND, gives BU a Max of 28 to match PC and ND. BC still being at 28 means UML is already at 27 with a sweep. This leaves us two options to try BC at 5. Either BC is tied with BU/PC/ND at 28 and UML rises up to 29, or we have a five-way RR at 28 with a UML/UMA tie. The Minutemen could still impact first place!
Let's go to the grids...
Given that UML would sweep BC, I'm going to start with the 5WT, as it is less advantageous to BC. BC swept PC, but was swept by BU and UML, so if we can pull PC up early, we might have a shot.
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]BC[/td][td]BU[/td][td]ND[/td][td]UML[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-5-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]4-2-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]4-4-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-4-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Even with ND taking 3-of-4 at the end, BU tops this group at 4-2-2 and leaves BC at the bottom. However, the league doesn't do all-at-once tie-breaks - which I have always thought they should if it is available. Instead we have to promote/demote one team at a time and recalc the remainders. With PC only a point ahead of BC, I'm worried about the Friars. Pulling BU drops a 0-2-0 from BC, but also a 0-1-1 from PC - which eats the point we just talked about.
New grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]BC[/td][td]ND[/td][td]UML[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Yikes! Everyone at 3-3-0. However, we still have the other TBs, and BC doesn't fare well against now top seed BU. BC/UML/PC would all have the same number of wins (BC and PC at 2 ties and UML would have to add one to their current 1), but ND would be down a notch (3 ties +1 for 4). Here, the league would historically drop ND, which means the Eagles can't be 5th here.
Still, since this could come up in the other teams' futures, let's finish.
Dropping ND has no impact on the RR results, as ND split 1-1-0 with everyone in the 4WT. No new grid, just move everyone to 2-2-0. We know they all split on wins as well. That moves us to TB3. BU swept BC, went 1-0-1 vs PC and split 1-1-0 with UML. Here, a .500 record is the best of the bunch, so UML gets promoted. That saves BC as the sweep of the Friars moves BC up into 3rd. If PC had the best results against BU, then promoting PC would leave BC under the UML sweep for 4th.
Final outcome of this 5WT for 1st (it's like Oprah came to about half the league and said "ev-ry-buh-dee-gets-a-banner!"): BU/UML/BC/PC/ND
In the 4WT, with UML at 29, we take away BC's sweep by UML, and also two of PC's three wins with their sweep of UML. Not promising, as I can't see how PC gets above .500. They'll need TB3 to help out.
Here's the 4WT grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]BC[/td][td]BU[/td][td]ND[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]3-1-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Once again, BU gets promoted by a point over ND. With UML and BU out of the mix, we've now pulled four of the five losses BC had in the 5WT. BC moves to 3-1-0, ND is 2-2-0 and PC is 1-3-0. BC 3rd. ND/PC H2H split goes to wins, which puts PC 4 and ND 5.
In review: In these ties, BU gets promoted out of the stack first. Even though it's only by a single point over ND, since the league doesn't do all-at-once, ND continues to fall though the stack at each turn until they end up at the bottom. Seems unfair, but that's how they do it. Ultimately, BU and UML grab the top two slots (order depending on UML at 28 or 29), then 3/4/5 goes BC/PC/ND.
The Eagles have clinched a Bye. What a difference a point makes...
(cont'd in next post)
After Fri Feb 17:
UVM 3 @ BC 3 (OT)
UNH 4 @ BU 4 (OT)
ME 3 @ MC 4 (OT)
PC 1 @ ND 4
NU 3 @ CT 0
Sat Feb 18:
UVM @ BC
ME @ MC
PC @ ND
CT @ NU
UML @ UMA
BU @ UNH
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]28 - 34[/td][td][1-4][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Lock – 28 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]25 - 31[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]25 - 31[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]23 - 29[/td][td][1-8][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]22 - 28[/td][td][2-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]21 - 27[/td][td][3-9][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]19 - 25[/td][td][3-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]18 - 24[/td][td][4-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]17 - 23[/td][td][4-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 23 (RRR tbs) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 22[/td][td][6-10][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 17 (UNH/MC/CT tb) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 15[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 11[/td][td][11-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - UVM, UML, @UML {3}
BU - @UNH, NDx2 {3}
ND - PC, @BUx2 {3}
UML - @UMA, @BC, BC {3}
PC - @ND, @UMA, UMA {3}
UVM - @BC, MCx2 {3}
MC - ME, @UVMx2 {3}
UNH - BU, CT, @CT {3}
CT - @NU, @UNH, UNH {3}
NU - CT, @MEx2 {3}
ME - @MC, NUx2 {3}
UMA - UML, PC, @PC {3}
UVM scored three unanswered to match BC's trio at Conte. Being outshot 8-2 and trailing 2-0, BU outshot UNH 42-18 for the rest of the game and wrested a 4-4 tie at Agganis. After giving up two goals :20 apart, MC trailed 3-0 at home - then scored three straight to draw OT and scored their fourth unanswered in OT for the win. ND turned a squeaker with PC into a blowout with three unanswered in the 3rd at home. NU scored three unanswered because CT didn't score at all in the 3-0 decision at Matthews.
So four of the five Friday games had strings of 3+ goals scored by at least one of the teams (UVM and BC both did it, as did ME/MC), while BU played "two for you, two for me, two for you, two for me" with UNH.
We have also, at three games left, finally cleared up all the GIH differences. BC and UML will throw that off next week as their series is Thu-Fri with everyone else having Fri-Sat RS finales.
---
We have been talking about BC looking up at a 28-point logjam, but now they have reached 28 themselves. So where does the Eagles' range fall after Friday?
For starters, they are now out of reach of UVM, so at worst has to deal with four other teams (BU, ND, UML, PC), making their floor 5th place before we look at TBs. We can get the top three of them to 29, but if we can't get the Eagles behind all four, BC has wrapped up a Bye.
With Maxes of 31(BU), 31(ND), 29(UML) and 28(PC), it seems like there might be some flexibility there. However, with all three of ND's remaining games being against other teams in this mix, that eats up six points that ND/BU/PC have to lose. There are only seven points to spare above 28 among the four, and zero on PC's end. That said, BU and ND have the most leeway, so we should have room for a massive RR.
To get BC under all four, we need PC to win out (28) and get ahead of BC in TBs. PC beating ND drops the Irish Max to 29. That leaves ND with only one point to spare against BU. BU dropping three points to ND, gives BU a Max of 28 to match PC and ND. BC still being at 28 means UML is already at 27 with a sweep. This leaves us two options to try BC at 5. Either BC is tied with BU/PC/ND at 28 and UML rises up to 29, or we have a five-way RR at 28 with a UML/UMA tie. The Minutemen could still impact first place!
Let's go to the grids...
Given that UML would sweep BC, I'm going to start with the 5WT, as it is less advantageous to BC. BC swept PC, but was swept by BU and UML, so if we can pull PC up early, we might have a shot.
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]BC[/td][td]BU[/td][td]ND[/td][td]UML[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-5-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]4-2-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]4-4-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-4-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Even with ND taking 3-of-4 at the end, BU tops this group at 4-2-2 and leaves BC at the bottom. However, the league doesn't do all-at-once tie-breaks - which I have always thought they should if it is available. Instead we have to promote/demote one team at a time and recalc the remainders. With PC only a point ahead of BC, I'm worried about the Friars. Pulling BU drops a 0-2-0 from BC, but also a 0-1-1 from PC - which eats the point we just talked about.
New grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]BC[/td][td]ND[/td][td]UML[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Yikes! Everyone at 3-3-0. However, we still have the other TBs, and BC doesn't fare well against now top seed BU. BC/UML/PC would all have the same number of wins (BC and PC at 2 ties and UML would have to add one to their current 1), but ND would be down a notch (3 ties +1 for 4). Here, the league would historically drop ND, which means the Eagles can't be 5th here.
Still, since this could come up in the other teams' futures, let's finish.
Dropping ND has no impact on the RR results, as ND split 1-1-0 with everyone in the 4WT. No new grid, just move everyone to 2-2-0. We know they all split on wins as well. That moves us to TB3. BU swept BC, went 1-0-1 vs PC and split 1-1-0 with UML. Here, a .500 record is the best of the bunch, so UML gets promoted. That saves BC as the sweep of the Friars moves BC up into 3rd. If PC had the best results against BU, then promoting PC would leave BC under the UML sweep for 4th.
Final outcome of this 5WT for 1st (it's like Oprah came to about half the league and said "ev-ry-buh-dee-gets-a-banner!"): BU/UML/BC/PC/ND
In the 4WT, with UML at 29, we take away BC's sweep by UML, and also two of PC's three wins with their sweep of UML. Not promising, as I can't see how PC gets above .500. They'll need TB3 to help out.
Here's the 4WT grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]BC[/td][td]BU[/td][td]ND[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]3-3-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]3-1-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-4-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Once again, BU gets promoted by a point over ND. With UML and BU out of the mix, we've now pulled four of the five losses BC had in the 5WT. BC moves to 3-1-0, ND is 2-2-0 and PC is 1-3-0. BC 3rd. ND/PC H2H split goes to wins, which puts PC 4 and ND 5.
In review: In these ties, BU gets promoted out of the stack first. Even though it's only by a single point over ND, since the league doesn't do all-at-once, ND continues to fall though the stack at each turn until they end up at the bottom. Seems unfair, but that's how they do it. Ultimately, BU and UML grab the top two slots (order depending on UML at 28 or 29), then 3/4/5 goes BC/PC/ND.
The Eagles have clinched a Bye. What a difference a point makes...
(cont'd in next post)
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