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Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

T

Todd

New member
For over a decade, we've used this thread to keep track of the math and stay away from the woofing and other pointless cr@p.

It's time to kick it off again for this season.

As this is Notre Dame's final year in Hockey East, and with no team lined up to replace them for next season, this will be the last year of the current 4-4-4 breakout of the 12 HE teams come playoff time, at least until such time as we get back up to 12. I am assuming (don't know if it has been announced yet) that next year will revert to some form of the 5-3-3 format we had before UConn joined, and all 11 teams will make the playoffs in 2017-18. Whether that first weekend is singletons or series is probably the biggest question. They could also go 4-4-out, but I think the days of the RS eliminating HE teams have passed.

So, while we still have 12 teams and 22 league games, let's see where we are just past the half way point in league play.

OK... let's go!

Heading into Tue 1/24:
CT @ BC
BU @ MC

Fri 1/27:
MC @ BU
UMA @ ME
UVM @ CT
NU @ UML
PC @ UNH

Sat 1/28:
ND @ BC
UML @ BU
UMA @ ME
PC @ UNH

--- Bye Lock – 35 (UVM/UNH) ---
--- Home Lock – 30 (PC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]21 - 37[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]20 - 38[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]17 - 35[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]16 - 34[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]15 - 33[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 35[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
---------------------------------------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]12 - 32[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]10 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]9 - 27[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]7 - 27[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]5 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 16 (ND) ---
--- R1 Road - 10 (PC) ---


Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - CT, ND, @UNH, (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {8}
BU - @MC, MC, @UML, UMA, (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {9}
UVM - @CT, @NDx2, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {9}
ND - @BC, UVMx2, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {9}
UML - NU, @BU, @NU, UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {9}
UNH - PCx2, BC, @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {10}
CT - @BC, UVM, @MC, MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {10}
PC - @UNHx2, MEx2, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {10}
NU - @UML, @UMA, UML, (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {8}
MC - BU, @BU, CT, @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {10}
ME - UMAx2, @PCx2, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {10}
UMA - @MEx2, NU, @BU, @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {10}


Doing point distribution, I can get BU to 12 by losing out and getting everyone to 21 or over, save for MC tied at 20 with BU but taking the TB with a sweep. Not saying that MC can't get more or that's the only way to put BU at 12, just that I found at least one way to put them there. If I can get everyone past BU at 20, then I can certainly clear 17 (or lower) for UVM (or lower) with this much still to play.

However, I can't get everyone past BC at 21. I can do all-but-one at 22 or over. Even using a logjam at 21 (that BC doesn't come out at the bottom of), I still leave someone at 20 or lower because of the interplay among the bottom teams. So that means BC can't be less than 11th - and I don't have to untie a massive TB at 21.

Looking at the bottom teams moving up...

The only games left between the top three are a BC/UVM pair. Even though ND (at 4), still has 1-2-2 left against the top three, I still see enough shuffling of points there to stay under the maxes of ME/UMA, so the bottoms can still each hit 25 (or higher) and be above the field.

So, the only team not currently 1-12 in range is BC at 1-11.

---
BC has been out in front of the league, but also has more league games (and more opportunities to get points) banked. Until the BU series a couple of weeks ago, of the non-wins for BC this season, they were nearly all out-of-conference - losses to AFA, Wisco, HU, Minny, NoDak and QU, plus a tie vs Ferris. An October tie at MC was their only HE blemish until a December loss at ND.

Suddenly, the sweep by BU has brought BC back to the pack a little, with BU now having a slight edge in HE win %, after their Maine sweep, and only one point back with a game in hand. That weak NC record has the Eagles leading HE, but fourth of five HE teams above the bubble in the Pairwise (PWR), finding themselves all they way down to a very vulnerable 14.

Speaking of games-in-hand, with the exception of NU, the league standings are also reflective of the number of games played, with BC having 14 under their belt and atop the board, BU, UVM, ND, and UML all at 13 and in slots 2-5, and the rest of the league (except NU at 14) with only 12 games played.

What that means for the Eagles is a lighter schedule (in terms of games, not opponents) in the second half, with only four games played so far in 2017, and no back-to-back nights in the entire second semester until a Fri-Sat / Thu-Fri finale to the RS.

Also in 2017, BC only has three true road games out of the fourteen on the schedule, with three neutrals (Fenway and the Beanpot). One road and one neutral have been played already, so they'll have two roads, two Beanpots, and six home games left to play.

---
The flipped situation to BC's schedule is that BU had two weekends completely empty in the first semester, with no games on the Halloween or Thanksgiving weekends, and no holiday tourney. This leaves the Terriers with a denser 17-game 2nd half, including the Fri-Sat-Tue-Fri-Sat string they're in at the moment. The good news for the Terriers is that they seem to have worked out some issues from the first half and are now riding an eight-game win streak. The Terriers are situated at 3 in the PWR, with about a 200-point gap (0.0199) clear of 5th (and a 2-tier seed).

After Tuesday's away game at Merrimack, BU will also have 10 games left (8 HE) with two roads, two Beanpot, and six at home.

---
While BC's NC record hurts them on the national front, UVM has been remarkably consistent in and out of conference. The Cats are 8-4-1 in HE and 8-3-1 NC. That's a strong reason why they are not only the current 3-seed in HE, but also the second highest HE team in the PWR standings at 9.

The Cats have a singleton this weekend, to let the games-in-hand (GIH) teams below them catch up, then have four pairs left going road-home-road-home.

---
Right behind UVM is Notre Dame. As with the Cats, the Irish have nearly-matching HE and NC records with 7-4-2 HE and 7-4-1 NC. The slight difference in outcomes has them only a point back of UVM in HE, but 10 slots back - at 19 and just under the bubble - in the PWR.

ND also has one game this weekend, then pairs of home-road-home-road. Next week's series at UVM could be key for where these two end up.

---
Another point back are UML and UNH, although the future results of UNH's game in hand leaves them either even with UML (with a loss), ND (tie), or UVM (win).

UML has already gotten their annual NC game against UMA out of the way, so both of the remaining games in that series count in the standings. Their singleton weekend (to even out the GIH) comes in the penultimate week (Sat-only @ UMA), which leaves UML a little rest for their Thu-Fri finale. The 'Hawks have a 5-4 home-road split remaining. Their 8-2-2 NC record nestles UML right behind UVM in the 10 spot of the PWR.

UNH plays Fri-Sat pairs from here on out, with a 5-5 home-road split, but four of the roads come in a row, straddling the middle of the skein. Also of note, all of UNH's games until the final H/H w/ UConn are against teams currently ranked in the Top 20. Add in last weekend's games @ ND and that's ten straight games against ranked opponents. Yikes... If the Wildcats can climb (or even hold on) in the standings, there's no doubt they'll have earned it.

---
At .500 both in and out of HE, UConn is squarely in the middle of both HE and national standings. In conference, with the help of their GIH, they could rise up into a bye week, or stumble into a road trip - or keep plugging along and stay with their current home series in the first round. In PWR, they are 30 of 60. They'll need to climb nearly 400 points to burst through the bubble, so unless they essentially win out through the RS (5-5 H/A split), it's hard to see them breaking into the NCAAs without an auto-bid.

(cont'd in next post)
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

(part two)
---
Like UML, PC has an 8-2-2 NC record. That leaves them currently one point out of a road trip in the first round of HE, but also one place behind BC at 15 in the PWR. Recall that UVM once rode an 8 seed in HE into the NCAAs with a strong NC record and a good playoff run. Also note that PC went 1-1-0 with most of the conference in 2014-15, and went 1-2 in three 2-1 games at home against UNH in the HE tourney, before running the table in the NCAAs for their first title.

They have a 4-6 H/A split left to play to sink or swim their seed in both HE and PWR.

---
Remember the infamous hole that NU dug themselves to start last year? How did that work out?

One could argue whether the turnaround started at the end of the first semester, in January, or in the Beanpot consolation, but last year's Huskies ran a 13-0-0 (19-1-1, 20-1-2, 21-2-3) string through the HE final to earn their 2nd HE crown (1988) and the NCAA auto-bid.

Well, the Huskies dug themselves another hole this season. They also swept MC last weekend. Has the run begun? If it has, they'll have to do it with fewer games than everyone else besides BC, as they have only 8 HE games left (3-5 H/A split + Beanpot).

---
MC is 6-6-0 NC, but they're five games under .500 in-conf. They have 10 games left (4-6 H/A split) and a shiny new defenseman to try to turn things around and rise in the standings. They begin that effort, and break in the new D with a Tue-Fri pair against newly anointed poll-leader BU.

---
ME started well, and is 6-4-2 NC (with one NC loss to UNH), but after the first couple of weekends (first 8 games were NC), the wheels have started wobbling and are at risk of coming completely off. They have managed only 5 points in-conf.

On the bright side, their five pairs remaining (H-A-H-A-H) include four series with the teams around them in the bottom five. No better opportunity to move up than playing a bucketful of "four point" games against the bottom of the conference. Of course, like the bumper sticker that says "You aren't in traffic. You are traffic.", those games wouldn't matter as much if Maine wasn't down at the bottom with them.

The best place to start? A pair at home against the other team at the bottom of the standings with you, UMA.

---
As has become common in recent years, UMA has a lot of work ahead of them at this point in the season just to get out of the Road crew.

Their first goal should be to start using a second hand when counting Wins on their fingers.

They have seven games left against the rest of the bottom five. They also have a road game at BU and a H/H with UML.

Before any of that, they will need to strap in and take the opportunity for points at Maine, else they'll start looking up at the 11 seed again, sitting on the wrong end of that TB.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Todd said:
As this is Notre Dame's final year in Hockey East, and with no team lined up to replace them for next season, this will be the last year of the current 4-4-4 breakout of the 12 HE teams come playoff time, at least until such time as we get back up to 12. I am assuming (don't know if it has been announced yet) that next year will revert to some form of the 5-3-3 format we had before UConn joined, and all 11 teams will make the playoffs in 2017-18. Whether that first weekend is singletons or series is probably the biggest question. They could also go 4-4-out, but I think the days of the RS eliminating HE teams have passed.
Click to expand...

Hockey East has said all 11 teams will make the tournament going forward next season. No idea about the format.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

I was literally going to post "Is Todd doing his annual thread this year?" today.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Yay. One of the annual threads I look forward to as well.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Tue 1/24:
CT 1 @ BC 2
BU 1 @ MC 3

Fri 1/27:
MC @ BU
UMA @ ME
UVM @ CT
NU @ UML
PC @ UNH

Sat 1/28:
ND @ BC
UML @ BU
UMA @ ME
PC @ UNH

--- Bye Lock – 35 (UVM/UNH) ---
--- Home Lock – 30 (CT/PC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]23 - 37[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]20 - 36[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]17 - 35[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]16 - 34[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]15 - 33[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 35[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
---------------------------------------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]12 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]10 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]9 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]9 - 27[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]5 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 16 (ND) ---
--- R1 Road - 10 (PC) ---


Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - ND, @UNH, (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {8}
BU - MC, @UML, UMA, (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {9}
UVM - @CT, @NDx2, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {9}
ND - @BC, UVMx2, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {9}
UML - NU, @BU, @NU, UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {9}
UNH - PCx2, BC, @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {10}
CT - UVM, @MC, MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {10}
PC - @UNHx2, MEx2, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {10}
NU - @UML, @UMA, UML, (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {8}
MC - @BU, CT, @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {10}
ME - UMAx2, @PCx2, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {10}
UMA - @MEx2, NU, @BU, @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {10}

Well, Tuesday night showed that nothing should ever be taken for granted in HE, especially at this time of year.

BC gave a rude greeting to their guests by scoring two on UConn in the first 88 seconds, but then had to hold on for the rest of the game to squeak out a 2-1 win, facing a barrage of shots. CT outshot BC by nearly 20 (43-26) besides those early two that went in for the Eagles.

Up in North Andover, then-new #1 BU also took an early lead at 3:20 (a minute later would now be legal in Massachusetts...), but Merrimack, too, unloaded shots on their opponent. MC nearly doubled up BU in shots (25-13) and goals in the first two periods. BU put on a flurry in the third (18-11), but to no avail, as MC got the period's only goal, for a 3-1 final.

With the loss, BU stays in place against everyone but the winners (BC, MC). That means that they made no ground on passing the possible logjam around 21 to avoid the 12-seed (see BC in the prior post). In fact, the scenario listed to drop BU to 12 used a MC sweep as a tie-breaker (tb) at 20. With Tuesday's results, that's still in the mix.

So, BU stays 1-12 in range.

---
BC, on the other hand, took back the GIH advantage from BU by broadening their lead over the Terriers to 3.

They also moved up the bottom of their range. Here's why:

First, a mea culpa. When I posted NU's Max last time, I had it at 27. Recall that NU is an anomaly at the bottom of the standings in that they have fewer games left than those around them. Their max should actually have been at 25, not 27.

With a max of "27" and UMA having a max of 25, I should be able to split the upcoming UMA/NU pair and still have them at or above 24, to be ahead of BC at 23. I couldn't get that to happen, which is when I noticed the above error.

So... UMA, ME, and NU all have maxes of 25. In any series against each other, either - but not both - of those teams could be above 24. As it turns out, these three have yet to play each other (but will this w/e w/ UMA @ ME for two). That means each has a pair against the other.

For each of those pairings, only one (at most) can survive to get to 24 and potentially pass BC. (BC has already swept all three of those teams, so tbs at 23 - even in some round robin (like NU sweeping UVM, who would sweep BC in this scenario, to counter BC's NU sweep) - are less likely to go the way of the non-BC team with one of these three. That means we're shooting for 24s here.) For example: For ME to keep its Max at 25 or 24, it needs to take 4 or 3 points from UMA (it can only lose 0 or 1). That correspondingly drops UMA's Max by the same 4 or 3 points, which drops it below 23. The same is true in reverse: UMA keeps its Max up, then ME drops below 23. If they split, they're both Max at 23 and losing the tb to BC.

That means that one of the two will no longer be able to catch BC. The loser then gets taken out of this equation. But the winner - whoever that is - still has to pair up with NU, leaving the same scenario where only one keeps their Max up. So, of these three, when it comes to potentially passing BC - and keeping their hopes alive for a 1-seed (yes, I can get each of the three to the top of the standings, solo) - it's like Highlander. There can be only one.

Since two of these three - whichever two those are - can't catch BC, the Eagles move up to 1-10 range.

---
On the PWR front, BU's loss to MC dropped them to 4th in PWR, and narrowed the margin on 5th (so, staying a 1-seed) to just over 100 pts (.0108). Victorious BC stayed at 14 and the idle HE teams (UVM, UML, PC) stayed in place (8, 9, 15) as well. Not surprising given the limited activity mid-week.

One note on the pairs at the top. I mentioned in a previous year how the reduction in factors in the PWR makes it now almost exclusively a RPI contest. (Maybe I'll dig that out as we get closer.) Here's an example:

Early in the year, BU was swept @ Denver. Those 2 H2H wins make it seem like BU could never get that pair. However, Denver also played BC and PC, and came away with a 0-2-1 record (losing to both and also tying PC). BU is 3-0-1 against BC & PC. Given the only possible games left against COP (BU v BC in Beanpot opener and 0-3 possible losses to BC/PC in HE tourney. Denver has no COP games left.), BU has locked up the COP match with Denver (the only COP in the top 6 that BU has currently). That makes Denver's advantage 1 before we consider RPI. As RPI is the tb, if Denver keeps the RPI lead, they take the pair, but if BU catches Denver on RPI, it's a 2-2 tie and BU gets the tb. So, despite all the other factors, even that pair comes down to simply RPI.

---
Tonight's five games leave ND and BC the night off before meeting at Conte tomorrow. BU and MC face off again, this time at Agganis, while the other mid-week participant, UConn, hosts UVM tonight.

MC, CT, and UVM then take Saturday off, joined by NU. The Huskies play tonight @ UML before the 'Hawks go to BU Saturday. Saturday completes BU's string of five games in nine days.

PC is at UNH for two as is UMA @ ME.

NU and UMA meet Tue at Mullins for a mid-weeker before the Beanpot schools go to their Fri(HE)-Mon(NC) series and we start to eliminate some of the GIH imbalances.

---
Setting expectations:

Usually, I stay up late or wake up early to try to get the analysis in for Friday's results before Saturday games start. This week, I have a Sat-Sun conference with early starts, so I don't see myself able to get back to this thread for new in-depth posts before Monday.

I'll probably do a Post-Fri and a Post-Sat at that point, they'll just be delayed.

Just so no one thinks I've fallen under a train when you don't see anything after the games...
 
Last edited:
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Fri 1/27:
MC 4 @ BU 1
UMA 1 @ ME 4
UVM 1 @ CT 3
NU 4 @ UML 3
PC 3 @ UNH 0

Sat 1/28:
ND @ BC
UML @ BU
UMA @ ME
PC @ UNH

--- Bye Lock – 33 (UVM/UNH) ---
--- Home Lock – 30 (CT/PC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]23 - 37[/td][td][1-10][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]20 - 34[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]17 - 33[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]16 - 34[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]15 - 31[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 33[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
---------------------------------------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]14 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]12 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]11 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]11 - 27[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]7 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 23[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 16 (ND) ---
--- R1 Road - 12 (PC) ---


Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - ND, @UNH, (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {7}
BU - @UML, UMA, (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {7}
UVM - @NDx2, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {8}
ND - @BC, UVMx2, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {9}
UML - @BU, @NU, UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {8}
UNH - PC, BC, @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {9}
CT - @MC, MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {8}
PC - @UNH, MEx2, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {9}
NU - @UMA, UML, (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {7}
MC - CT, @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {8}
ME - UMA, @PCx2, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {9}
UMA - @ME, NU, @BU, @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {9}

*** Note: analysis effective after FRIDAY's games.***

Perhaps with Tuesday as a precursor, Friday night's results kept those trying to predict HE games on paper on the wrong side of the ledger.

All of the games where Top Six teams in the standings played Bottom Six resulted in a win by the team trailing in points. MC beat BU, CT beat UVM, NU beat UML, and PC beat UNH. In the match at the bottom of the stack, hosts ME beat visitors UMA. BC and ND had the night off.

---
With the exception of UMA, none of the lower teams lost ground to the teams at the top. In fact, all that Friday did was to bunch things closer in the standings, moving the Bye Lock and Road threshold closer together in the process. The gap between 3rd seed and 10th is a mere 6 points, reminiscent of the legendary 09-10 RS final standings.

---
While the Minutemen could now only tie idle BC at best - and lose a 2-way tb on a BC sweep - they could be one of the teams that can't catch BC in the "Highlander" scenario from the last post, so BC doesn't move up the bottom of their range.

The only teams where UMA could have a better record than BC (and hope to come out atop a multi-way tb for #1) are MC (UMA 1-0-0, BC 0-0-1), UML (none played) and BU (UMA 0-1-0, BC 0-2-0). In the case of a three-way tie w/ BU, UMA might be ahead of BC initially (1-1-0 to 0-2-0), but BU would win that trio, then UMA would lose to BC H2H. However, in the case where UMA ties BC at 23, we know that they would have swept UML and UML would sweep BC. With each team at 1 tie, they could end up tied in league wins as well. (Remember, if it ever gets to BC v UMA, BC gets promoted on H2H, so we need UMA to be promoted out of multi-way.) At that point, it would come to record against next highest seed team. UMA could advance on BU as next team, with BU sweeping UML and UMA getting any points from BU.

So UMA has a sliver of a chance of still being #1.

---
Given how things bunched, surprisingly, I don't see anything else worthy of mention after Friday, so on to Saturday.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Sat 1/28:
ND 4 @ BC 6
UML 2 @ BU 4
UMA 1 @ ME 2
PC 3 @ UNH 2

Tue 1/31:
NU @ UMA

--- Bye Lock – 32 (ND) ---
--- Home Lock – 29 (UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]25 - 37[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]22 - 34[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]17 - 33[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]16 - 32[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]15 - 29[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 31[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
---------------------------------------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]14 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]14 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]11 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]11 - 27[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 25[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 21[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 16 (ND) ---
--- R1 Road - 14 (PC) ---


Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - @UNH, (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {6}
BU - UMA, (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {6}
UVM - @NDx2, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {8}
ND - UVMx2, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {8}
UML - @NU, UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {7}
UNH - BC, @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {8}
CT - @MC, MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {8}
PC - MEx2, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {8}
NU - @UMA, UML, (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {7}
MC - CT, @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {8}
ME - @PCx2, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {8}
UMA - NU, @BU, @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {8}

On Saturday, Providence and Maine completed their weekend sweeps, PC on the road at UNH, and Maine at home over UMA.

BC extended their lead on the rest of the Top Six, except on BU, who kept pace. BC beat ND, BU beat UML, UVM was idle and UNH lost.

CT, NU, and MC also had the night off.

PC's win pulls them even with CT at 14, each one point behind the tie for 5th at 15, two points out of 4th (and a bye), and three points back of 3rd.

ME's win draws them closer to the NU/MC tie at 9th.

UMA may want to put up some dry wall to turn that basement into a finished Man Cave. The lost sweep to the Black Bears puts them effectively five points behind their nearest competitor with 8 games left in their schedule.

---
Let's start at the edges.

UMA now has a Max of 21, which puts them already behind BC and BU.

However, if we let BC and BU soak up as many points as available (since UMA can't catch them anyway), we can still distribute the points so everyone else ends up at 20 or lower. That leaves UMA with a range of 3-12. BU also has at least one team that can't catch them, so goes to a tentative 1-11.

As mentioned in the "Highlander" scenario last week, only one of the three teams between UMA, ME, and NU could move up to threaten leader BC because of their interlocking play. We now know that the first team out is UMA. ME still has to play not only NU (both teams Max at 25 - where BC now is), but also has two with MC (Max 27). If Maine were to stay in that mix (hitting their Max), it would take out not only NU, but MC. Instead, let's assume it's NU and MC that keep their Maxes, and we have now accounted for which two teams have BC's lower range at 10 - UMA and ME.

From ME's side of that equation, a tie (at best) with BC has them on the losing side of the H2H. They would need a favorable multi-way to be able to take 1st. Their only helpful options would be UML (ME 1-1-0, BC 0-2-0), MC (2-0-0 vs 0-1-1), ND (2-0-0 v 1-1-0) or UVM (0-1-1 v 0-2-0). UML and UVM would have the winning record out of that group and get promoted, so ME would lose 2nd to BC H2H. No help there. Since ME would need to be at least two games better in the round robin (to make up for the BC sweep), even MC alone wouldn't help. However, if MC, ND, ME and BC all tied, here's how that would look:[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]ME[/td][td]MC[/td][td]ND[/td][td]BC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]4-2-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]2-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-4-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BC:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]3-2-1[/td][/tr]
[/table] So that would actually promote Maine to the top seed. The only problem? AS discussed, since Maine and MC have a pair to play, if ME hits its Max (25), MC's Max (27) drops by 4. So MC could only get to 23 in that scenario.

So, I can't find a way to get ME ahead of a logjam at 25. They can't be the top seed. That moves their range to 2-12, but BC's isn't affected yet (see above)

---
MC's Max of 27 lets them still reach #1, but NU (with one fewer game left) is tin the same scenario as Maine: they can only tie BC and were swept by the Eagles. Their possible RR helpers are: BU (NU 0-1-1 v BC 0-2-0), UML (2-0-0 v 0-2-0), and MC (2-0-0 v 0-1-1). Their options are a little more limited, as the remaining teams on NU's slate already have a BC banking a matching or favorable record, except UML. However, the two-game swing from UML could send this trio (NU, BC, UML) to the 3rd tb (all 2-2-0 and same wins). In the case where MC is the next highest team, I think they would have NU/UML (each 2-0-0 v MC) drop BC (0-1-1 v MC) into 3rd, then NU would take UML with the H2H sweep and be the 1 seed.

So, I'll leave NU, by a whisker, still in the running for 1st.

---
Everyone from PC thru UVM could still end up at either the top or bottom of the standings. All 1-12.

With everyone packed tightly around the middle, look how close all of the thresholds are to each other at both ends of the spectrum.

---
Knowing that UMA can't catch BU, I can drop BU into a three-way tie for all-but-last (9, 10, 11) with MC and NU at 22. In that RR, recent sweeps by MC over BU and NU over MC loom large, when combined with NU salvaging a point from BU with a last-minute EAG in the fall. MC splits the RR 2-2-0, but NU is 2-1-1 and BU is 1-2-1. NU gets promoted out of the trio, then MC beats BU H2H with the Tue-Fri sweep. That means BU could still be 11th.

---
For BC, there simply aren't enough points left to distribute to get 9 teams past them (or even logjam) at 25. That said, I can still get BC into a road game in the first round.

If we sacrifice a 3rd team below BC - let's take NU, whose Max would only tie the Eagles anyway, to join UMA and ME - we can squeak every other team to exactly 26 points, except BU and UNH tied w/ BC at 25. UNH would sweep BU and earn the split with BC for a 3-1-0 RR record. BU would sweep/swept for a 2-2-0. BC would be 1-3-0. UNH promoted, then BU over BC with the H2H sweep. BC 9th, playing at BU in the 8/9 series. Technically a road game, but they get to sleep at home every night.

Still, BC's range narrows to 1-9.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

RENCEB said:
Just like Lloyd Christmas...."So you're telling me there's a chance?"
Click to expand...
Well, [spoiler alert] that was before Tuesday's game, which I'll get to in the next post. Those two points off UMA's Max are a killer at this point. [/spoiler alert]
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Tue 1/31:
NU 6 @ UMA 5

Fri 2/3:
UMA @ BU
CT @ MC
UVM @ ND
UML @ NU
ME @ PC
BC @ UNH

Sat 2/4:
UVM @ ND
ME @ PC
MC @ CT
UNH @ UML

--- Bye Lock – 32 (ND) ---
--- Home Lock – 29 (UML) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]25 - 37[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]22 - 34[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]17 - 33[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]16 - 32[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]15 - 29[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 31[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
---------------------------------------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]14 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]14 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]13 - 25[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]11 - 27[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 25[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 19[/td][td][4-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (RR tie) ---
--- R1 Road - 14 (PC) ---


Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - @UNH, (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {6}
BU - UMA, (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {6}
UVM - @NDx2, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {8}
ND - UVMx2, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {8}
UML - @NU, UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {7}
UNH - BC, @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {8}
CT - @MC, MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {8}
PC - MEx2, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {8}
NU - UML, (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {6}
MC - CT, @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {8}
ME - @PCx2, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {8}
UMA - @BU, @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {7}

On Tuesday, NU and UMA played a barn-burner at Mullins, but once again NU wins (4-game streak) and UMA loses (8 in a row and 13 of 14).

For NU, they maintain their Max and the top end of their range, while not gaining enough ground to move the lower end. NU stays at 1-12.

---
For UMA, their Max (now 19) is starting to approach the banked points of the tightly packed group from 3 down - in the same way that Icarus was approaching the Sun. Similar results may soon occur.

UVM (17) and ND (16) still have to play two. One of them has to at least tie UMA. UVM swept UMA, but ND split (1-1-0). In order to have a shot at 3, UMA needs a 3-1 (1-0-1) ND edge there, resulting in ND @ 19 (with UMA promoted on league wins, as ND would have 3 ties) and UVM @ 18.

UVM also has to play UNH for two. If UVM stays in place at 18, then UNH sweeps and moves up to 19. If UNH doesn't sweep, then UVM moves up to at least 19. Both UVM and UNH swept UMA and each would have a 0-1-1 record against ND. Either UVM or UNH would have a 2-1-1 record and ND would also (1-1-0 vs UMA, 1-0-1 vs UVM/UNH). That puts UMA (1-3-0) demoted out of the trio and behind both.

So UMA is better off having only one of the three (UVM, who could knock off both ND and UNH) get past 19, and try to hold on to a possible 4th.

If UVM sweeps ND, then ND (18) could split with PC (16), then lose out, so ND stays below 19.
UML has room to beat UNH, lose out and stay at 17.
UNH (after losing to UVM and UML), has room to take 3 from CT, leaving UNH at 18 and CT at 15.
PC (already split with ND above to hit 16), can now split with CT, moving PC to 18 and CT to 17.

Lets skip past CT for a moment.

The results above have NU beating UML, so now at 15. If NU takes 3 from CT, both teams are at 18.
MC can sweep CT, moving MC to 15 and keeping CT at 18. That leaves MC open to taking 3 of 4 from ME (see below) and topping at 18.

At this point, we have now accounted for all of CT's games (MC sweep, PC split, NU 1/3 split, UNH 1/3 split) and CT is still at 18.

So far we have UVM, BU, and BC ahead of UMA's Max, but have ND, UNH, PC, NU, and MC all at 18 and UML at 17.

We have also given ME (9) sweeps of PC, ND, and NU, while taking another point from MC. That leaves ME only three points (all lost to MC) off their Max of 25 with 22 points. That puts another team above UMA, so we can't get UMA cleanly above the field for 4th, but we can get them above all of those teams but one for at least 5th.

What if we look for ties at 19 to muck out a 4th seed?

We'd need to take points from Maine while not bringing anyone else more than a point. Maine could give up a point each to PC (swept by UMA here) and ND (split UMA, lose TB on H2H wins to UMA) as possible candidates, but that still leaves Maine at 20 and above the tie at 19. Instead of choosing whether to have Maine lose another point to either MC or NU, I'm going to have them lose a point to each, elevating both MC and NU to 19, but dropping ME to 18 and out of the tie.

Why? Because ME swept UMA last week, but UMA would finish up by sweeping MC and splitting (1-1-0) with NU, which are both more favorable outcomes in the TB.

So, instead of ND, PC, MC and NU (all on ME's schedule and 3 on UMA's) all being at 18 and ME at 22, I have Maine lose a point to each, dropping ME to 18 and making a 5-way tie at 19. UMA would have 1-1-0 (ND), 2-0-0 (PC), 2-0-0 (MC) and 1-1-0 (NU) out of that mix, putting them at 6-2-0 in the RRRs (Round Robin Results), and atop the tie break. Here's the grid:
[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UMA[/td][td]ND[/td][td]PC[/td][td]MC[/td][td]NU[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA:[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]6-2-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-5-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-5-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU:[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]
Remarkably, there is just enough room for UMA to sneak into a bye and a 4 seed.

UMA is 4-12.

---
That also means I'm moving the Bye Eligible line to 19, after seeing how that is the lowest base we can have with the points still to be distributed.

---
Looking at the rest of the teams in this discussion (all but BC and BU), this maneuvering is to see how high we can get UMA. I am not moving any other team's ranges. Example: UVM can still be at 17 and be passed by everyone else. If they stay at 17, we would redistribute the 12 points lost to ND, UNH, and MC into the scenario above (where they're all at 18 or 19 anyway besides any points we shift to UML at 17) and everyone else could easily clear UVM's 17.
 
Last edited:
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Todd, Before Saturday's games we have our first casualty. UMass Amherst cannot get a bye no matter what as though they could still hypothetically tie at 17 points, either Notre Dame or PC will get to at least 18 since they play each other still.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Fri 2/3:
UMA 1 @ BU 3
CT 2 @ MC 2 (OT)
UVM 4 @ ND 4 (OT)
UML 6 @ NU 4
ME 2 @ PC 3
BC 6 @ UNH 4

Sat 2/4:
UVM @ ND
ME @ PC
MC @ CT
UNH @ UML

Mon 2/6:
Beanpot is non-conference

Wed 2/8:
PC @ CT

--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC  [/td][td]27 - 37[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 26 (MC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 34[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]18 - 32[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]17 - 31[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]17 - 29[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]16 - 30[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line ------------------------------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 29[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]15 - 29[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]13 - 23[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]12 - 26[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 23[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (RR tie) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 17[/td][td][6-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/CT) ---


Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
UVM - @ND, UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {7}
ND - UVM, @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {7}
UML - UNH, BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {6}
PC - ME, @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {7}
UNH - @UML, @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {7}
CT - MC, PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {7}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
MC - @CT, @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {7}
ME - @PC, NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {7}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}

On Friday, we had a lot of late-period and late-game heroics across the league.

At MC, CT got the EAG at 19:27 to send that game to OT, where it ended in a draw.

In South Bend, each team got late-in-the-period goals with ND scoring in the final 3:30 of the 1st and UVM scoring with just over 2:00 left in the 2nd. UVM followed with two more in the first 2:00 of the 3rd. Trailing 4-2 late, ND drew closer at 16:50 and got the EAG PPG at 18:47 to pull out the tie there as well.

In a 2-2 deadlock with ME, PC got the game-winner with a PPG inside the final 2:00 at Schneider. That extends the Friars' win streak to six.

At the Whitt, UNH had turned a 5-2 deficit to BC into a 5-4 nail-biter with a 6x4 as the game's end drew near. BC potted the ENG shortie in the final minute for a 6-4 final, earning their fourth in a row since the BU sweep. That also extends UNH's winless streak to six (0-4-2).

Not to be outdone, UML scored in the final 2:00 of each period at Matthews. Those three goals, including a late ENG, proved the difference in the 6-4 victory over NU, stopping the Huskies' win streak at four. That also rights the UML ship after losing four straight.

At Agganis, there was no late-period drama, but UMA's woes continue (9 straight Ls and 14 of 15), while BU is now riding a 10-game win streak against all teams not based in North Andover (0-2-0) into their match-up with BC in the Beanpot nightcap.

---
Speaking of the Beanpot, we're now at the point where the GIH start to even out as the Beanpot schools (BU, BC, NU) play NC games. Coming into Friday night's play, those teams each had six HE games left, the UMasses (A and L) had seven each, and the rest of the league had eight each. After Friday, when everyone played, drop all of those by one.

---
So far this year, since this thread started, the teams have been drawing closer in the middle, but no one has flipped position in the stack yet. As things tighten, that means that when someone does make a move, it may be a big jump. It also means that once a threshold of any kind is crossed - bye, home, road, range (top or bottom) - it may be in a burst, either a lot of teams cross at once or a team rises or falls many positions. With the two schools at the top being on the short end of the GIH tally, it should also be interesting to see who moves up by climbing over whom to get separation from the pack.

The first team to change in the stack this year is PC, who jumps past both CT and UNH and into 6th. That leap also places them only a point behind ND and UML in a tie for the final Bye and two points behind UVM for 3rd.

Another team at risk of a negative burst is UMA. On Tuesday, we still had UMA in the hunt for a Bye. They are now a possible two points away from being locked into a first round Road trip.

---
At the top of the leaderboard, BC's W combined with three Ls and a T from the bottom four, now puts the Eagles ahead of the Maxes of all of those teams. That means that with or without the Bye, BC won't be on the road for their first playoff series. It also means that none of those teams can reach the 1 seed.

Looking at the remaining league slate, UML, UNH and CT all have Maxes of 29, but UNH and CT finish with a pair and UML and UNH play Saturday. If each team loses only two points (UNH over UML, UNH/CT split), then they could all still match BC's 27. Without even getting in to that 4-way RR, we then see that PC (30 max) plays CT for two, meaning that one of those has to fall to at least 26. That's some combination of five teams that can't catch BC. In fact, looking at the rest of the mix and spreading available points in available games, the worst I can do for BC's positioning is get them down to 6th. So raise their range Min from 9 to 6.

See... bursts.

---
At 24, BU is now clear of the lowest three Maxes (UMA, ME, NU), taking their range Min at least from 11 to 9.

I can get everyone else clear of BU at 25 or higher, but there are a number of teams at 25 or 26. Even if MC were to fall to 24, they would take the H2H tb, so we'd have the same result. BU's range is 1-9. No Home Ice yet for the Terriers, but it's close.

---
UVM's 18 is also clear of UMA's 17 Max, so the Cats can't be last. There are plenty of points to spread around to put UVM in 11th, though. The same is true at the top where they could end up #1. Range 1-11.

---
ND and UMA could tie at 17 and at the bottom alone. UMA gets promoted on the second TB, so ND can still be 12th. The Irish could also clear the rest of the league by as many as four points, taking the top seed in a walk. Range: 1-12.

---
Similarly, UML could bottom out with UMA, which would include a UMA sweep on back-to-back Saturdays. That puts UML 12th. On the other end of the spectrum, UML could go into their final game with BC needing only a tie to take the TB (1-0-1) and the 1 seed, or win to take the title outright. Range: 1-12.

---
PC can still end up below UMA by one at the bottom for #12, or clear the league by three at the top for #1. Range: 1-12.

---
UNH and CT can each be last by 2 or first by 2. Range: 1-12.

---
NU (Max 23) can no longer catch BC (27) or BU (24). That makes them top out at 3rd, but they can settle there above the rest of the fray. Range: 3-12.

---
While MC is a point behind NU in the standings, they have 2 GIH. That allows them to be below everyone, but also ahead of everyone but BC. Range: 2-12.

---
Maine also has 2 GIH over NU, but since they're four points back, that just gives them the same Max. The remaining schedule gives them the same range: 3-12.

---
Due to character restrictions, the long UMA analysis is in the next post.

---
Going into Saturday's games, the Bye Eligible line is still at 19.

However, since PC and ND play two, one of their Maxes has to drop to 29 or lower, along with the UML/UNH/CT. That puts the Bye Lock line (guaranteed 4th or higher) at 30 (eventually 29 with tbs), to get past all the 29s.

I suspect that the Home Lock and R1 lines may need to drop due to schedule interplay, but I'll leave those in their simple forms (banked points and single-team Maxes) until they're discovered in the analysis.

---
With so much in flux in the pairwise, we'll wait until the Saturday games are complete for a status review there.

(cont'd in next post)
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

(part two)

---
Well, we know that UMA can be 12th, but how high can they get with the remaining interplay of point sharing? We saw after Tuesday that some of the teams are going to have to get to 19 that aren't there yet. The key for UMA will be how many teams that they can't catch can we limit to stem their fall.

For starters, UMA wins out. Then, there are three teams (BC, BU, UVM) that UMA can't catch. Those teams can soak up all available points to give UMA a hand. Without playing any other games, we have UMA in a tie for 4th at 17 with ND and UML.

Now, we can't use the 5-way RRRs from Tuesday that gave us UMA up top. Why? Because UMA lost (so can't reach 19 any more) and the actual results don't match our scenario we used to distribute points to get that logjam. So, we start anew.

Right away we can see that ND (17) and PC (16) have to distribute 4 points from their series. That means at least one of them has to pass UMA (17). That's a 4th team they can't catch. No Bye for the Minutemen.

PC (16) and CT (15) also have to distribute 4 points, so one of them has to pass 17. If we let that be PC in both instances, then that's the same team and UMA is still behind only four.

That said, CT (15) and UNH (15) also have to distribute 4. That means either a new, fifth team gets past UMA at 17, or we add to the tie at 17. If we go with the tie, then UML v UNH (both at 17) has to lift one of those two. Since that's UML's only undecided game, I'm going to give UNH those two points, and keep UML (who would lose a sweep to UMA) at 17 and all games done.

Now we have CT (15) v UNH (17), so we have to promote one of those two as the fifth past UMA.

So... let's catch our breath. Where are we?
BC, BU, UVM all past UMA
ND or PC
PC or CT
CT or UNH

That means it makes sense that either we move up ND and CT, leaving PC (16) and UNH (17) back, or PC and UNH, leaving ND (17) and CT (15) back. (We could also do PC and CT, leaving ND and UNH back, but that wastes and opportunity for soaking points from PC/CT.)

What else do we have to resolve?

ME (9) plays both ND and PC. They should sweep whoever we leave behind of that pair and (to save flexibility) be swept by whoever we promote. That leaves ME with 13 points either way (see correction below).

At this point, MC (12) has only their pair with ME left undecided. Let's have MC sweep that to stay at 16 and take four points away from Maine's Max.

We still have the balance of NU's (13) schedule against CT and ME to deal with, plus the CT/MC game Saturday.

With so many games on tap for CT, and UMA sweeping PC here. It feels like we should let ND and CT go and soak up points. (I realize that UMA was swept by PC's pair-mate UNH, but don't forget UML will be in the mix at 17 in the RR and UMA will sweep them too. Still a net 4-2-0. 2-2-0 from PC/UNH is better than the 1-2-1 from ND/CT.)

Oh, look! It turns out PC has only one game remaining against Maine, since they played Friday. So much the better. Plus, at 16, we want PC in the RR with UMA at 17, so they can tie Maine to soak that point away from ME leaving them at 10, not 13.

That just leaves us with ME (10) and NU (13). Anything but a NU sweep leaves both behind UMA. In fact, along with MC (16), the only teams behind UMA. However, that leaves us open to pulling NU into the RR in case that helps UMA. We could also move MC a point up if that helps. Since UMA has a MC sweep, I'm going to do that pre-emptively by either taking one from CT (well past UMA now) or ME (well below).

So:
BC, BU, UVM, CT, ND all past 17.
UMA at 17 with MC, UML, UNH, PC.
ME behind.
NU pending.

OK. Let's see how the 5-way RR would work before adding in NU if needed. A lot of UMA sweeps in here, so I'm optimistic.

[table="class: grid"]
[tr][td]RRRs[/td][td]UMA[/td][td]MC[/td][td]UML[/td][td]UNH[/td][td]PC[/td][td]Total[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UMA:[/td][td][/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]6-2-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-5-2[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]3-5-0[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH:[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]1-0-1[/td][td]1-1-0[/td][td][/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC:[/td][td]0-2-0[/td][td]0-1-1[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td]2-0-0[/td][td][/td][td]4-3-1[/td][/tr]
[/table]

There we have it.

Now, what is it we "have"...

Due to our selective picking of UMA being in ties predominately with teams they sweep, they come out atop this jam. Better yet, we don't have to add NU because we only need one answer that works.

With UMA having a 6-2-0 record and giving 0-2-0 to three of the other four teams, the only real concerns were 1) if one of the three that UMA swept in turn swept the others and we had a tb among 6-2-0 teams, or 2) that UNH (the "fourth" team) would ride their 2-0-0 start and lose fewer than 4 points to the rest of the grid. #1 wouldn't really be an issue because any of those three would lose H2H vs UMA due to the sweep.

#2 wasn't settled however until the last match-up on the grid. UNH was 4-1-1 with PC pending. If they had swept PC, their 6-1-1 would best UMA. Even 1-0-1 from PC would leave them with 12 points (5-1-2) to match UMA. The league has never clarified how to break such a tie ("best record": do they go by points (go to TBs) or is 6-2-0 better because of more wins... or 5-1-2 better because of fewer losses?) Assuming a tie, they would go H2H and the UNH sweep would move UNH up. Then UMA's 6-0-0 record would leave them next in line.

As it turns out, the sweep went the other way, with PC taking 2-0-0 from UNH - so, UMA wins the grid.

That means that selecting ND and CT to move up and soak points worked out. We limited the damage to only losing two more places and UMA can still be... 6th.

UMA range: 6-12.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

After Sat 2/4:
UVM 1 @ ND 4
ME 3 @ PC 5
MC 2 @ CT 2 (OT)
UNH 2 @ UML 8

Mon 2/6:
Beanpot is non-conference

Wed 2/8:
PC @ CT

--- Bye Lock – 30 (ND/PC/UVM) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BC [/td][td]27 - 37[/td][td][1-6][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Home Lock – 25 (MC) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]BU [/td][td]24 - 34[/td][td][1-9][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ND [/td][td]19 - 31[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UML[/td][td]19 - 29[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UVM[/td][td]18 - 30[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]PC [/td][td]18 - 30[/td][td][1-11][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--------- Bleen Line --------------
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]CT [/td][td]16 - 28[/td][td][1-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]UNH[/td][td]15 - 27[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]MC [/td][td]13 - 25[/td][td][2-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]NU [/td][td]13 - 23[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[tr][td]ME [/td][td]9 - 21[/td][td][3-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- Bye Eligible - 19 (Field) ---
[table="width: 250"]
[tr][td]UMA[/td][td]5 - 17[/td][td][8-12][/td][/tr]
[/table]
--- R1 Road - 15 (UNH/NU/ME/MC) ---

Remaining schedules (NC) {HE games left}:
BC - (v BU), MC, (v HU/NU), UVMx2, UML, @UML {5}
BU - (v BC), @UML, (v NU/HU), UNH, @UNH, NDx2 {5}
ND - @MEx2, PCx2, @BUx2 {6}
UML - BU, UMA, @UMA, @BC, BC {5}
UVM - UNHx2, @BCx2, MCx2 {6}
PC - @CT, CT, @NDx2, @UMA, UMA {6}
CT - PC, @PC, NU, @NU, @UNH, UNH {6}
UNH - @UVMx2, @BU, BU, CT, @CT {6}
MC - @BC, @UMA, MEx2, @UVMx2 {6}
NU - (v HU), UMA, (v BU/BC), @CT, CT, @MEx2 {5}
ME - NDx2, @MCx2, NUx2 {6}
UMA - @NU, @UML, MC, UML, PC, @PC {6}

Geez! Did UML have a puck-based stomach virus? I ask because it looks like most of their team skated by the UNH net and vomited rubber into it.

Seriously, poor Tirone (UNH starting G). He went into the 3rd looking like a star by keeping UNH in the game after facing 22 UML shots in just the 2nd period and only letting in one goal. However, in about 8 minutes of the 3rd, he had only faced 3 shots. Good for the UNH D. The bad news is that all three went in. Maybe he was exhausted from fighting for his life the period prior? Come to think of it, he let in 2 of 6 in the 1st. Maybe the key is to not shoot at him in bunches, but quietly sneak up on him and catch him by surprise?

Anyway... Three late goals again in this game. UNH with under :90 to go in the second, and UML twice in the final :93 of the 3rd.

CT and MC switched buildings and had a mirrored result. The visitors in both games managed a game-tying EAG with about a half minute left to salvage a 2-2 tie.

At PC, the Friars gave up a PS only seven seconds into the 3rd, but still managed to sweep ME to extend their W streak to 7. Keeping the late goals coming, PC got a PPG at 19:30 of the 2nd, and an ENG at 19:45 of the 3rd.

The Irish took 3 of 4 points from UVM with their win tonight, helped by late goals with a 4x4 at 19:42 of the 2nd and an ENG just inside the final two minutes of the game.

On the weekend, that's four games tonight and five-of-six last night where teams scored in the final two minutes of at least one period.

The league's new marketing campaign: Hockey East - Don't leave early to beat the snack line or traffic.

---
The Beanpotters and UMA all had the night off. That leaves the top (BC, BU) and bottom (UMA) of the league idle as teams in the middle moved around. In the mean time, the GIH are levelling out, as we have all 5s and 6s left in games-to-play.

---
ND and UML jumped past UVM and PC jumped up to meet them. That drops UVM from solo 3rd to a tie for 5th. CT sneaks ahead of UNH for 7th and MC ties NU for 9th.

---
There are now six teams already above UMA's Max (17). CT (16) and UNH (15) play two, so that means a 7th team that UMA can't catch. If we promote CT, then UNH can lose out and NU/MC/ME can share points so that all four of them could stay below 17. UMA is now barely staving off a first-round bus (or plane?) ride with a range of 8-12.

---
That also means ND, UML, and PC can no longer be 12th. UVM already couldn't. Each of these four could be caught by everyone but UMA, and could each top the table. All ranges 1-11.

---
For BC, we now know a little more about their range. At 27, they are ahead of four teams' Max.

UNH (27 Max) and CT (28) play two, so only one of those could catch BC. UNH also plays two with UVM (30). For UNH to stay in the mix by tying BC, they have to pull down both UConn and UVM. Instead, we'll let UNH - a tie at best anyway - sink. That's five teams in BC's rear view.

CT plays PC for two. A 3-1 split leaves matching 27 Maxes. PC then plays ND for 2. A PC sweep pulls ND back to 27 as well. BU, UVM, and UML all have enough points left to clear 27.

In this 4-way (BC, PC, ND, CT) RR at 27, BC has sweep, split, sweep for a 5-1-0 record. They gave both PC and UConn two losses, so only ND could match BC (at best) if they had matching sweeps. Instead the Irish were swept by the Friars and split with the Huskies. Eagles prevail.

So, we can't get the Eagles behind this logjam. However, if we sacrifice one of these three to sink, we might salvage the other two. In this case, we can let PC give up a point or more to each of CT and ND. That leaves BC ahead of six, but cleanly behind the other five. That's how we get their range of 1-6.

---
BU's 24 in the bank is ahead of three Maxes (UMA, ME, NU).

MC's 25 Max is the next vulnerable. MC's only remaining opponent still in the mix is UVMx2. MC can tie BU with the sweep tb, but they would have to take at least three from UVM (30), dropping the Cats' Max to 27.

UVM (27) plays UNH (27) twice. If they split, that's still each Maxing at 25, and that's where UVM can stay.

UNH (now 25) plays CT (28) twice. For UNH to stay at 25, CT has to drop into a tie with BU at 24. Instead, since UNH would have to sweep BU for this to matter, let's put CT at 25, and add UNH to the BU/MC mix at 24.

CT (now 25) still has a pair with PC (30). A UConn sweep closes out the Huskies at 25, and drops PC to 26. PC (26) then has a pair with ND (31) with enough points available for both to stay above 24.

UML (29) plays only BC, BU, and UMA, so it's obvious where those points would go here - all to UML, who can stay at 29.

So: BC, UML, ND, PC all with points to spare over BU. UVM and CT at 25. MC and UNH tied with BU at 24, but each swept the Terriers, so BU is third of three. I count eight teams ahead and three behind. That's what gives BU's range of 1-9.

---
CT can still bottom out or top the table. Range: 1-12.

---
The best hope for UNH (Max 27) for the 1 seed is to win the tb among co-champs. That has to include at least BC, who already sits at 27. However BC already swept UNH. That 0-2-0 hole leaves UNH to need another team that evens the trio at 2-2-0 all around and then win on a later tb, or add even more teams. Well, the easiest team to add is current 2, BU. UNH would have to sweep BU to max out and BU already swept BC. Just what the doctor ordered for the 2-2-0 RR tie. UNH already has 3 ties though, so they'd lose that trio on TB2, league wins. Have to add a 4th team. Is there a team that UNH has a better record against than BC and BU, without that 4th team taking the RR?

UVM would be ideal, as they would need to sweep BC to keep them at 27 and be swept by UNH for UNH to max out. Plus, UVM already split with BU. Perfect! Except... with only six games left and the sweep/swept with BC/UNH, UVM only has two games left (MC) to get from 22 to 27. 4 != 5. Basically, UNH sweeping UVM drops UVM's Max from 30 to 26 - one point shy. UVM would be a great option, but they can't get there and have UNH be there, too.

UNH winning out also removes CT from consideration, dropping CT's Max to 24. That leaves PC, UML, and/or ND. PC swept UNH, as did UML, so that doesn't help. UNH got a point from ND, so that's no deal either. The only way that helps is if ND swept both BC and BU to give UNH a 1-point advantage on the Comm Ave pair. However, that would also mean that ND had a massive 5-0-1 record against the other three, meaning UNH isn't the 1 seed anyway. As it is, ND split with BC and the BU series is TBD.

However we slice it, there aren't any ties left that UNH can win at 27. Had UVM gotten even a single point Saturday, UNH could still reach the 1 seed. Instead, their range drops to 2-12.

---
At Max 25, MC can still be 2-12, and, at Max 23, NU stays 3-12.

ME, however, dropped to Max 21. Still, I can squeak ME to a 3-way RR for 3rd at 21 with CT and ND. ME would sweep ND and split w/ CT. ND and CT split. That goes to ME (3-1-0) over CT (2-2-0) and ND (1-3-0). ME also stays 3-12.
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Todd... you are really, really good at this. :cool:
Love this thread. :)
 
Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2016-17 edition

Todd,. You should check yourself into a mental institution
 
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