Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

After Fri 2/27:
NU 6 BU 5
BC 2 ND 0
ME 2 PC 5
UMA 0 CT 4
UVM 1 UML 4
MC 1 UNH 4

BU 29 - 31 [1-2]
BC 27 - 29 [1-4]
--- Bye Lock – 27 (PC/UML w/ tb) ---
PC 25 - 27 [2-5]
UML 25 - 27 [2-5]

NU 24 - 26 [3-6]
--- Top 4 Eligible - 25 (PC/UML) ---
ND 23 - 25 [5-7]
UVM 22 - 24 [6-7]
--- Home Lock – 21 (UNH w/ tb) ---
UNH 19 - 21 [8-9]

ME 18 - 20 [8-10]
--- R1 Road - 18 (ME) ---
CT 18 - 18 [9-10]
MC 13 - 15 [11]
UMA 11 - 11 [12]

Remaining LEAGUE schedules (NC in parentheses):
BU - @NU
BC - @ND
PC - ME
UML - UVM
NU - BU
ND - BC
UVM - @UML
UNH - MC
ME - @PC
CT - Done
MC - @UNH
UMA - Done

At the top of the standings, what once seemed inevitable is still in doubt. At the bottom of the standings, the seemingly inevitable has come to pass.

We have some solid grouping now in the standings:
BU and BC have 1 and 2 in their own control and have clinched Byes.
PC/UML/NU look to be fighting it out for two Byes for three teams.
ND and UVM will be hosting next week.
UNH and Maine are fighting it out for the final Home series, perhaps to face the other.
CT/MC/UMA will all be on the road next week.

Let's see how it breaks out:

---
BU's magic number of 1 is hanging around like the snow banks in the city. The good news for BU is that it is still there - the magic number, not the snow. The bad news for BU is that it is still there - both M# and the snow.

For BU there are three things that will give them the 1 seed (they are already at least co-champs):
1) Get at least a point at NU - BU wins outright on their own terms.
2) BC doesn't get at least a point at ND - BU wins outright even with a backslide of what would then be an 0-4-1 finish to league play after a 13-2-2 start. The Beanpot is nice, but it doesn't matter here.
3) UML gets at least a point at home vs. UVM - BU wins on tbs (covered previously).

Since the 7:00-start UML game likely ends earlier than the BU/NU game (8:00 start), BU could find out the BC/ND result (6pm start) and UML result before their game is over - letting them know just how much 3rd period magic they need to find, if any, to take the crown.

The Terriers are also plummeting through the PWR. 2nd overall and a near lock for a 1 seed in the NCAAs, they have now fallen to the lower end of Tier 2.

---
For BC, the reverse of all of the above is true.

There is only good news for BC that BU's M# is stagnant at 1. That means the Eagles one chance for the 1 seed is still alive.

Where BU's chances above are connected by "or", as they only need one to occur. For the Eagles, the need to avoid any of those means that they are all about "and".

For BC to snatch the 1 seed, they need:
BU loses AND BC wins AND UML loses.

That scenario ties BC and BU at the top and seeds NU ahead of UML for the tb.

On the low end, BC can only be caught by at most two more teams (UML, PC), so the Eagles have locked up a Bye as their Home series while on the road at South Bend.

BC loses the H2H w/ UML, so a tie there would drop BC to 3.
In a tie w/ PC, the teams split 1-1-0. PC would take the tb on league wins, 13-12. Drop BC to 3 there as well.
In a BC/UML/PC tie, we would have UML taking 3 from BC, but being swept by PC, so 1-2-1. The PC/BC split also puts BC at 1-2-1, and so gives PC a 3-1-0 win here. PC 2. The UML/BC tb puts UML 3 and BC 4.

BC's floor is still a Bye, but a 4 seed.

Their early start has no impact on the Eagles. To take the 1 seed, they need to win, regardless of what everyone else does. A single point locks up the 2. A loss, and they could drop to 4. Since they can only control their own game, they don't need to scoreboard watch anyway.

---
PC can catch BC for 2 on the tb. Add in UML, and PC is still 2. If BC moves up, then PC is a lock for 3 with a win.

PC can still be passed by NU and caught by ND. PC and ND split (of course), but PC would take the tb on league wins. Otherwise, we'd be back into the Abbott-and-Costello-esque tb - Who's in First?.

PC and NU split (...), but there are two ways to get into a tie. If PC loses and NU ties, then PC takes the tb on wins, 12-11. However, if PC ties and NU wins, then NU catches PC in wins 12-12. We then go Abbott and Costello. If BU ends up in first, they would have split w/ PC, but just been swept by NU. UML could already be ahead of this pair, so this tb could decide 4 v 5 - and the last Bye.

This is similar to the BU/NU scenario talked about a few days ago that led Parker to consider (or at least he should have been considering) pulling the goalie in OT, but here there would be added twists.

For one, this is for Bye v Home instead of In v Out (as with BU/NU). That means that PC has to look at the down side of turning a tie into a loss. PC securing the tie keeps them out of reach of ND. A loss (assuming that UML is ahead and NU wins) means they could be caught. We have seen that they win that tb, so a tie and loss is effectively the same thing at that point. No downside re: PC vs ND if the Friars lost with the goalie pulled.

The next twist is that PC and UML start at 7, but NU starts at 8 and is on TV (which extends total game time). If PC is in OT, it is quite possible that the UML game will be a final, so that they know whether their tie matters vs. UML. But the NU "win" needed to force this situation is shifted in time by at least an hour - unless there is a facilities failure or time-consuming injury (let's not have that) that adds an hour to PC's game time. Even a seeming blowout at NU isn't safe. Last night we saw BU come back from being down 6-2 to get a 6-5 final with one BU goal called back after review and several "how-did-that-not-go-in?" missed opportunities to tie the game or - if collectively successful - win it.

Still, if UML has a win in the books and NU is up eight or so on the Terriers late in the 2nd period or early in the 3rd, and PC finds itself in overtime, Leaman might have to consider the goalie pull.

Since PC cant fall behind ND, their floor is 5.

---
UML can take BC for 2nd. Add in PC to that mix, and UML is 3rd.

Like PC, UML can be passed by NU and tied by ND. UML took ND 1-0-1, so cannot drop to 6th.
UML also took NU 1-0-1, so a tie there goes to UML.
UML was swept by PC, so the Friars have that tb.
In a UML/PC/NU tie, the H2Hs break out as: UML 1-2-1, NU 1-2-1, PC 3-1-0 - just like the UML/PC tie scenario with BC. That would go PC 3, then UML over NU for UML 4, NU 5.

So, UML can still drop to 5, but that would require NU to pass them and PC to take at least as many points as UML in the final game.

Since NU is a point back, a single UML point means NU couldn't pass, and so would wrap up a Bye for UML. That same point also means that UML would be the deciding factor in a BU/BC tie for the top seed, swinging it BU's way.

---
NU can rise to 3rd, alone with 26 points.

They could be passed by ND and caught by UVM. UVM and NU split, and would have the same number of wins. In this case, NU's loss is BU's gain and the Terriers would be the 1 seed. NU would have a split with BU, where UVM was swept. Tie to NU.

NU can only fall to 6th.

---
ND's best shot is a tie at 25 with UML, PC, or both.

ND loses H2H w/ UML 0-1-1. They split w/ PC 1-1-0. We have seen this exact same tie with both BC and NU. 0-1-1 vs UML. Split with PC. PC's sweep of UML gives PC a 3-1-0 and the highest seed, then UML takes the H2H, leaving this team at the bottom of the stack.

ND and PC split, but PC will have more wins.

That means that ND comes out at the bottom of any UML/PC combo at 25 points. ND was swept by NU, so adding in the Huskies to that group at 25 is not going to help the Irish.

That means ND can't get ahead of either UML or PC - and can't get a Bye. With that sweep looming as a tb w/ NU, ND's only chance to move up from 6th to 5th is a win and a NU loss. In the same way that BU and UML have a mutually beneficial interest tonight, ND and BU have one as well.

Looking behind them, UVM is the only team that could drop the Irish a notch. UVM can pass. In a tie situation, ND took 3-of-4, so takes the H2H tb.

In a three-way-tie at 24 (NU/ND/UVM), the H2H would be the theme of the night: NU 3-1-0, ND 1-2-1, UVM 1-2-1. That puts NU up top, then ND takes the H2H with UVM at the bottom. That's the same order the standings are right now.

That means that UVM needs to pass ND to move up to 6th and ND's only chance to drop to 7th is a ND loss and a UVM win.

---
We just saw that UVM's only shot to move up is a very specific result to get 6th. They could already not be lower than 7th, and that is still true.

(cont'd)

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

(Fri 2/27 cont'd)

---
UNH passed Maine to take current hold of the final Home spot. ME swept UNH, so has the H2H tb. CT is done, so can't move up. UNH can't reach UVM for 7th.

For UNH, it is simple: Get at least as any points as Maine tonight and you will be playing at Home next weekend. You may, in fact be playing Maine at home next weekend. Let Maine catch you, and you'll be going to Alfond next weekend.

---
ME needs to tie UNH to take the last Home series and host the 'Cats. They need to also be aware of CT, who won their final game to tie the Black Bears. UConn took ME 1-0-1, so the Huskies would take 9th - and a road trip to the Whitt, if Maine doesn't get at least a point. If Maine gets that point, it could mean not only 9th, but 8th.

In any event, a point for ME means a UNH/ME first round series... somewhere. Those two have already played FOUR times, as they played a NC series at two different neutral sites before the December break. They might be looking at games five, six and even seven on the year facing each other.

---
CT is in the clubhouse awaiting ME's result. If ME loses, UConn will be at the Whitt next weekend. If not, CT will travel to either Burlington or South Bend.

---
Win, lose, or draw tonight the once mighty Warriors of MC will be traveling to the 6th seed next weekend. Idle UMA will be visiting the best loser of the battle for the final Bye.

 

[Priceless]

Don't know if it's been mentioned but this could be the first all-Boston top three in Hockey East since 85-86.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

How is Hockey East's PWR fate stacked for this weekend?

Going into Friday, the four HE teams that were above the bubble were also the ones with Byes. Just below the bubble, UVM and NU were hosting first-round series, giving them the potential for moving up.

After Friday's results:

The top 3 in PWR looked to be locked, in that order, unless one of the three craters. Each is roughly 100 points (.0100) clear of the one below. NoDak: .5960; MnSt: .5855; MnD: .5755.

Seemingly fighting out out for the four spot, with wiggle room for those coming up from below, are Denver: .5660; BU: .5655; and MI Tech: .5652. All three within eight points total. That small a difference can be determined by what those teams that you played do.

For example: Denver won last night and BU was idle. IIRC, Denver was up by 2 pts (.0002) before the weekend. A win should push them further away. Why is BU still so close (only 5 pts back)?

Look at the ECAC. Every game of the four played last night was between a team that BU had played vs. a team that they had not. They even played Harvard twice, so Harvard has twice the impact on BU's Strength of Schedule (SOS). All four of BU's opponents won. Those are four bumps up in BU's SOS, one of them double-weighted.

Miami and UNO are close enough behind that they could make up the gap on the 4-6 slots and end up anywhere in there. Miami lost to NoDak last night and UNO tied CC.

The top of the rankings has been very West-heavy late into the season. The good news for the East is that some of those teams have to play each other, and they can't all win.

NoDak-Miami is probably the best example of that. Miami already dropped a couple of notches last night. Lose again and they're out of the League tourney and vulnerable for falling out of the second tier for NCAAs. On the other hand, if they come back and beat NoDak twice to move on to the next round of the NCHC tourney, NoDak could lose the number one overall seed to Minn State. NoDak, Miami, Denver, UNO, Duluth... they all have to pile up losses somewhere. Only one can be the NCHC Tourney champ.

For Hockey East, that leaves room for BU to move up into the NCAA first tier. It also leaves the possibility of PC and/or BC to move up into the second tier, moving up from their current 9/10, respectively. Sitting 80 points back of UNO, they would probably have to hope for UNO to get another ding and each would have to move on to the Garden after next week. Whether they would need 2-0 sweeps, or a Semis win is too tough to call at this point.

Sitting at .5400-even, UML has the chance to move up further from the bubble and safely protected from a flurry of auto-bids. They might not be able to get up to PC/BC range, but maybe as high the other .5400s, perhaps up to where MN currently is. Their difficulty is that only Yale and the Q ahead of them share a league. If MN does well in the Big Ten, it doesn't preclude BGSU from doing well also.

Jumping up over the bubble into the auto-bid eliminated spot is UVM. UVM and NU were neck-and-neck going into the weekend. UVM took care of business and, helped by a Michigan loss to Penn State, jumped up.

NU, on the other hand, lost in OT to Merrimack (one notch behind Penn State) and is now 110 points behind UVM's 16 seed.

MC and UNH seem to be too far back to make it on wins alone - they will need the auto-bid that would come with all those wins. Similarly, Notre Dame's soul-crushing loss in 5 OTs (longest game ever) to 45th-ranked UMA crushed them in RPI as well. ND is now sub-.5000. All three of MC, UNH, and ND are below .500 for the season, so they should expect to be in the positions they are in, Pairwise pair-wise.

UConn, Maine, and UMA are done as soon as they lose a series, or a game at the Garden.

So, in sum:

BU should be at least a 2-seed, if not 4th overall. 200-ish points seems too far to fall to drop to a 3.

PC/BC could use the NCHC knock-off tournament to leverage a 2-seed. Some minor risk of dropping to a 4, but 100 points is a big fall off. If they match up against a low seed in the next round, and lose twice, perhaps that would do it - but keep in mind that BU will face the bottom remaining seed. So there would need to be a 2nd upset for PC to face a low-rank team next weekend, and a 3rd for BC to do so.

UML moved up out of the 16th slot while idle. They will need the wins to move safely away from auto-bid bumping territory, if only to avoid the losses that would drop them.

UVM has the advantage of playing this weekend, so has the chance for extra wins and moving themselves away from the 16 seed. With their opponent, Maine, down in the 40s, UVM can't afford to lose this weekend.

NU will have to come back and win both vs. MC to put themselves within striking distance going into next weekend. For NU, they benefit by their opponent being around .500, so the loss last night hurt a little less. Still, they need to win two and move on to have a shot.

For everyone else (and maybe NU), it's auto-bid or golf.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Two corrections to last post:

West is in final weekend of RS, not first of playoffs.

Apparently BU was 2 pts behind Miami, not Denver. Denver's win and Miami's loss on Fri night had them switch places around BU.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Let's start from the top of the PWR:

Since this is final RS w/e in the West, that changes things a little. Between last night and the playoffs, some teams could add as many as three losses, not just one or two. That widens the range of variation in their RPI, the all-but-exclusive driving factor of PWR this year.

NoDak dropped 55 points with a loss to Miami. That win jumped Miami up over yesterday's 4-6 and into the 4th slot.

MnSt's win pulled them up 18 and only 32 behind NoDak.

If you haven't followed this part before, it is much easier to fall (or rise) to the middle than to stay closer to the extremes. Think of batting averages.

If you get a hit, you are at 1.000. As long as you keep getting hits, you stay there. But if you hit, then miss, you drop 500 points to .500. Another hit doesn't bring you halfway back (.750), you only get to .667. Another miss is .500. A third hit (now 3-for-5) and you are at .600. See the pattern? The higher you are, the further you fall back towards the middle, and the harder is is to climb back up. Flip the hits and misses and you get the same result climbing up from the bottom, but in reverse.

So, for RPI, the teams at the top will fall further with a loss than teams in the middle. Within the top eight (1 and 2 seeds):
NoDak lost
MnSt won
MND lost
Denver lost
Miami, UNO, and Tech all won

Idle BU dropped 10 points. Most of that probably goes with NU losing. BU played NU three times this season - and last week. NU's loss is a triple ding to BU's SOS. They are now a 6 seed, but less then 20 points out of 4th. Yesterday, they were 5 points back.

At 9 and 10, PC and BC have about an 80 point cushion above and below, so they won't move until next weekend.

At 15, UML is in almost exactly the same spot (up a point), but now - after the Gophers lost - the Hawks are only 11 back of MN for the RPI tie-breaker to move into a slightly safer 14th seed.

UVM's loss dropped them under the bubble at 20, but a win in the rubber match today should raise them back up to just under/just over the line. That's within striking distance of being high enough over the bubble by winning next week, that they could lose at the Garden and still make the tourney. But they have to win tonight, and they have to win next week.

NU's similar loss left them still having that rough 110-point gap behind UVM that Friday's loss (and UVM's Fri win) created, but they are done.

UConn's loss to UNH also ends their first season in Hockey East.

Everyone else that remains alive this weekend is still auto-bid or golf.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Side note:

As a fan of college hockey in general, I have to say that last night was a tough way to see Clay Witt go out.

Hockey is a team sport, but the focus is often drawn to the goalies, especially in tourneys. Even more so in OT. The reality is that one of the goalies may or may not be the hero in OT, but one will certainly be the goat. The unfairness of that is that goalies don't score. They can't win OT, they can only stave off losing.

NU played in seven OT games this year. Last night's was a double. They scored zero goals for Witt.

In fact, in his entire five-year tenure at Northeastern, the Huskies only managed to score in OT for him three times that I can find:
- The lone win in last year's playoffs at UNH.
- A Jan 2014 win at PC, over Gillies - the goalie that is the second most famous "was coming to NU until ..." player, and would have taken essentially all of Witt's playing time had he come to Huntington Ave.
- Their final game of the year at the end of the 2011-2012 RS (former Terrier Vinny Saponari beats the Terriers in OT in what would have been his Senior season with BU, on Senior Night at NU).

Three goals in five years and it took a transplanted rival to net the only one at Matthews.

This year, he held on for the tie in the first four RS contests. The last three OTs (Beanpot final and HE playoffs) were indefinite length - go until someone scores. If NU can't score for him to get the win, he will inevitably, inexorably, take the loss. Friday night's game was the longest of Witt's career... until Saturday beat that record by 27 minutes. Still, the puck floated across the line behind him by a few inches last night. (I was right over the goal and had a view as good as the overhead camera.) Even a long review doesn't change that result.

After almost 4000 minutes between the pipes for the Huskies with a .920 save percentage, Witt is going to end his career with a 1-for-5 streak, three of those losses being tourney games in OT, because his teammates couldn't find a way to score first in about 45 minutes of sudden-death hockey.

Sure, the opponents had something to do with it, too. It is no one player's (or coach's) fault - but it should be noted: it's not Witt's fault either.

It seems like he deserved a better ending.

 

[Go-UML]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Sooooo.....anyone heard from Todd? Has RL stolen him? Love his yearly analysis; so does my budget, really. Sames me money on the three As. Advil, Alcohol and Antacids

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Sooooo.....anyone heard from Todd? Has RL stolen him? Love his yearly analysis; so does my budget, really. Sames me money on the three As. Advil, Alcohol and Antacids

http://www.playoffstatus.com/hockeyeast/hockeyeastwinmagicnumbers.html

 

[Patman]

Sooooo.....anyone heard from Todd? Has RL stolen him? Love his yearly analysis; so does my budget, really. Sames me money on the three As. Advil, Alcohol and Antacids

If I get bored this evening I suppose I could schlep it. Gotta send a laptop back to the manufacturer and buy a new cable modem as the tech gods have seemed to have foresaken me

 

[Scarlet]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

If I see Todd tonight I will ask if he's planning to do this again.

 

[Patman]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Screw it... simulations take time... and so I have time

--Bye (>33P)--
--Home Ice (>25P)--
BC 7L 24P 38Max (1-11) (NH)
ND 7L 23P 37Max (1-11) (@VMx2)
ML 6L 23P 35Max (1-11) (NU,NH)
PC 8L 19P 35Max (1-11) (@MEx2)
BU 7L 19P 33Max (1-11) (@MA)
VM 8L 12P 28Max (1-12) (NDx2)
CT 7L 11P 25Max (1-12) (@MC)
NU 7L 11P 25Max (1-12) (@ML)
ME 8L 10P 26Max (1-12) (PCx2)
NH 8L 10P 26Max (1-12) (@BC,@ML)
MC 7L  9P 23Max (1-12) (CT)
MA 5L  8P 18Max (6-12) (BU)

Not really any worth in going through the logic puzzle as of yet. Ordinal probability distributions would suggest that 6th and 12th won't be that close in the end and likewise 1st through 5th so I'd expect the middle to come together slightly. But a lead is a lead. The logic puzzle being too complicated to see who must trade points with each other means that BC may have very well already qualified for home ice, but its not worth my time. They have 24 and the naive line is 26 points. Not a stretch if this is the middle and everybody will have to take points from each other in that middle. For the sake of sanity, we'll say that BC has home ice clinched and if it hasn't well nuts to that. To that end, ND, Lowell, and Providence are closer to home ice than it looks (again, better than 9th) and BU right behind.

Looking at the schedule... with no play between 1st-5th, it is possible for BC, ND, ML, and PC to clinch home-ice this weekend without going into schedule details. Boston U can't slip in this weekend as they play a singleton and the many on the bottom with singletons can't cross that line as they can't go up enough and the others can't go down enough.

That's what I have for now.

--Pat

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

If I see Todd tonight I will ask if he's planning to do this again.

This is about that time of the year when he promised some BU ladies (BMOC!!) to a recruit named Corey Trivino isn't it?

Ask if he plans on doing that again...

 

[Scarlet]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Give it a rest. You need new material.

 

[Go-UML]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

Thanks Scarlet. The link provided was nice and Patman's chart was nice. Did noticed the two didn't match up, however.

Still, something about Todd's writeups that was special.

 

[Todd]

Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition

I'm like a new iPhone, except when you're waiting, you don't need to stand in line...