Re: Hockey East - Bye, Home, and Road: by the numbers - 2014-15 edition
(2/14, part III)
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Either of NU or ND could hit their max (28), which would include a sweep of BU, and take the 1 seed on tbs. If they both do so, NU swept ND, so we would have NU/ND/BU as 1-2-3.
On the low end at 20, if they tie w/ MC's max, both split with the Warriors. MC would have more wins than ND (2 ties vs 4). NU would have the same number of wins, but would have been swept by BU, where MC took a point. That means it is possible for either ND or NU to fall behind MC at 20.
That said, as noted earlier, for CT and MC to reach or pass 20, UNH can't.
That puts both NU and ND at 1-10 range.
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Coyotes walking on the bay ice outside the house lately. Food must be hard to come by with all this snow.
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While we're looking at the bottom, PC's banked 21 puts them ahead of MC's max of 20. Interplay between CT/UNH (max 22/21) leaves one of them behind 21 as well. That's three that can't catch PC. Bottom is 9. Haven't wrapped up Home yet, but close.
On the upper end, PC could take the 1 seed solo at 29.
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The house next to me has a porch tacked on to the roof-peaked side of the building. Yesterday the snow was up to their porch railing. Today the drift off the roof peak onto the porch is almost 15 feet high. It's a second floor porch. The drift goes up half way up the 3rd floor. Giant ice dam on that corner of the roof, too.
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Yesterday we saw that with their max of 28, UML would need a 4-way BC/BU/ND/UML tie to come out atop the standings. BC and UML both won yesterday to keep that alive. ND's loss, combined with the BC/ND pair yet to come, means there now aren't enough points to go around to make that happen. ND would need to win out to catch 28. That's a sweep of BC, who only has three games left. That leaves two points for BC to move up to only 26.
Since UML lost all the three-way ties and the H2H w/ BU, that doesn't bode well.
We didn't look at how NU at 28 might help the Hawks chances.
Well, in a three-way with BU, it is just like ND. In fact, I'll make the substitution into what I said yesterday:
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>UML</th><th>BU</th><th>BC</th><th>NU</th><th>Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>3-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>BU:</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-2-0</td><td>3-3-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>BC:</td><td>0-2-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>2-3-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>2-0-0</td><td>0-1-1</td><td></td><td>2-2-2</td></tr></table> As I thought it might, this gives us similar results. UML is just over .500, two teams are at .500 and one is just under. The slight switch is that instead of BU and BC at .500 and ND below, now NU is at .500 and BC below. In any event, that gives UML a window to the 1 seed.
At the bottom end, UML's win has them now clear of UNH, MC, and UMA, and at worst tied with CT. This is now the flip side of that long UConn discussion, except instead of trying to keep UConn as high as we can, we're trying to keep UML as low as possible.
We have seen that UML wins the H2H w/ CT. We also know there is interplay between PC, NU, and ME. The difference here is that we can give PC and NU the points from their other games to get them past UML, which frees up all the points for ME to hit their max of 24. If UML stays at 22, UVM will have swept them and reached 23.
So where are we? UMA/MC/UNH can't reach UML at 22. BU/BC/UVM would be beyond 22. CT wouldn't be higher than 22, and would lose H2H tb.
To keep UML at the bottom of the tie at 22 - and not yet clinching a Home series - we would need to add in in one or more of PC/ND/NU/ME to the tie at 22 to not only beat UML, but take UConn above UML with them. That tb would need to promote CT before it was down to the final two, because we know that UML wins the H2H w/ CT. The team(s) that we add in would have had to do poorly against CT and well against UML.
PC swept UML, but also took three from CT. So, yes, they did worse against CT than against UML, but they took 7 of 8 points and would be promoted out first of the three. Not what we need.
ND took three from CT, but only one from UML. Not helpful. NU swept CT, so... no. ME was swept by UML, so - again - no.
Even combining PC (CT +1 point better than UML) and ME (CT -1 point compared to UML) an adding in a ME sweep of PC... CT is still tied w/ UML at .500 (2-2-2 and 3-3-0), but PC is over-.500 at 3-2-1 and ME below at 2-3-1. That still promotes PC first and leaves us where adding ME in doesn't help. The other ties project to come out similarly - without UML at the bottom.
We're out of options to keep UML down at 9.
So congrats to the Hawks for clinching a Home series.
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My dog has been going snowbound stir crazy...
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BC is free and clear of four teams, so they are Home-clinchers as well. Have they clinched anything higher than 8th? Could they fall out the bottom of a tie at 24?
Well for the simplest answer, they split with ME (1-1-0). BC and ME both have two ties, so wins are the same. BU split w/ BC, but swept ME. If BU is the 1 seed, BC wins that tb. UML swept ME, but would also have swept BC to keep the Eagles at 24. That's a wash. Moving down the stack, I see that ND took three from Maine, but would have swept BC to keep the Eagles at 24. Since ND can still be the 1 seed, does that work?
Well, not yet. For ME to hit their max, they have to sweep NU. That leaves NU with a max of 24 as well (which would mean a sweep of BU, which is also needed for ND to be the 1 seed). That means there is no BC/ME two-way tie at 24. We have to start with a three-way BC/ME/NU tie. ME 3-1-0, BC 2-1-1, NU 0-3-1. Promote ME and BC wins the NU H2H. So, yes, BC can be behind ME, but now they're ahead of NU.
If we add in ND, we get: ND 3-2-1, ME 3-2-1, NU 2-3-1, BC 2-3-1. ND gets promoted ahead of ME on H2H record tb, and we're back to ME/BC/NU.
Adding PC (after ME sweep) to ME/BC/NU, we get: ME 5-1-0, BC 3-2-1, PC 2-4-0, NU 1-4-1. Promote ME. PC/BC/NU is then BC 2-1-1, PC 2-2-0, NU 1-2-1. Promote BC and we're done with that.
How about this? ME/NU/BC have to be there. For BC to stay at 24, ND would sweep and UML would complete their sweep. What does ME/NU/BC/ND/UML look like? That's probably as bad as it gets for BC, with two sweeps against. BC ends up 2-5-1. We get: UML 6-0-2, ND 3-3-2, ME 3-4-1, NU 2-4-2, BC 2-5-1. Wow. Don't recall seeing that before. A five-way tie with only one team above .500 and one even with .500. Third place is just less under .500 than the other two. So this looks like BC comes out the bottom of the stack, but HE doesn't decide the whole thing at once (...which is what I would do - they are all tied). Here we would clearly promote UML out and we're back to ND/ME/BC/NU above. PC and UVM both split with BC and NU, so adding them into the mix, doesn't help get NU past BC in any of these cases. (If someone else wants to do the math on a six- or seven-way tie and prove my instinct wrong, have at it.)
At this point, I feel confident that BC cannot come out the bottom of a tie at 24. BC can't be 8th, but they could be 7th.
They can also be the 1 seed at 30 or 29 without any tbs.
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At least it's dark now and I can't see the snow any more, beyond that piled up on my windows. I can still hear the wind, though - especially when the house creaks.
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Obviously BU can still be the 1 seed. Before last night they couldn't be lower than 5. Have they wrapped up 4th seed and a Bye, even with the loss at UNH?
Here's how we kept the Terriers at 5 yesterday:
How about this? NU and ND still win out and get the tbs vs BU as above. PC wins out for 29. That drops BU to 4. Can we get anyone else past them?
For ND to hit 28, they have to sweep BC, which leaves the Eagles at 26 max. We could swap out Eagles for ND, but that gets us no closer to BU dropping to 5. Swapping in BC for ND in any of the tbs only helps BU as ND would sweep, but BC is 1-1-0. Putting BC ahead at 29 or 30 and taking ND out still takes away the ND sweep and makes it less likely for BU to be overtaken.
The only other option is UML joining the tie at 28, with or without PC (if needed). UML would lose the BU H2H, but can we get them promoted out earlier and leave BU with NU, ND, or both? Maybe. UML did well against both NU and ND. If we can get those to count before the BU sweep drags UML down, it might work.
ND/NU/UML/BU comes out: NU 4-1-1, UML 2-2-2, ND 2-3-1, BU 2-4-0. Not looking good. Promote NU. ND/UML/BU goes to ND 2-1-1, BU 2-2-0, UML 1-2-1. Promote ND. BU wins H2H with UML.
So: BU cannot be 5th. 4th is their bottom. BU has clinched a Bye.
(2/14, part III)
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Either of NU or ND could hit their max (28), which would include a sweep of BU, and take the 1 seed on tbs. If they both do so, NU swept ND, so we would have NU/ND/BU as 1-2-3.
On the low end at 20, if they tie w/ MC's max, both split with the Warriors. MC would have more wins than ND (2 ties vs 4). NU would have the same number of wins, but would have been swept by BU, where MC took a point. That means it is possible for either ND or NU to fall behind MC at 20.
That said, as noted earlier, for CT and MC to reach or pass 20, UNH can't.
That puts both NU and ND at 1-10 range.
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Coyotes walking on the bay ice outside the house lately. Food must be hard to come by with all this snow.
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While we're looking at the bottom, PC's banked 21 puts them ahead of MC's max of 20. Interplay between CT/UNH (max 22/21) leaves one of them behind 21 as well. That's three that can't catch PC. Bottom is 9. Haven't wrapped up Home yet, but close.
On the upper end, PC could take the 1 seed solo at 29.
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The house next to me has a porch tacked on to the roof-peaked side of the building. Yesterday the snow was up to their porch railing. Today the drift off the roof peak onto the porch is almost 15 feet high. It's a second floor porch. The drift goes up half way up the 3rd floor. Giant ice dam on that corner of the roof, too.
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Yesterday we saw that with their max of 28, UML would need a 4-way BC/BU/ND/UML tie to come out atop the standings. BC and UML both won yesterday to keep that alive. ND's loss, combined with the BC/ND pair yet to come, means there now aren't enough points to go around to make that happen. ND would need to win out to catch 28. That's a sweep of BC, who only has three games left. That leaves two points for BC to move up to only 26.
Since UML lost all the three-way ties and the H2H w/ BU, that doesn't bode well.
We didn't look at how NU at 28 might help the Hawks chances.
Well, in a three-way with BU, it is just like ND. In fact, I'll make the substitution into what I said yesterday:
If that is the same, what about swapping NU for ND into yesterday's 4-way-tie grid?<table border="1">
<tr><th>RRRs</th><th>UML</th><th>BU</th><th>BC</th><th>NU</th><th>Total</th></tr>
<tr><td>UML:</td><td></td><td>0-2-0</td><td>2-0-0</td><td>1-0-1</td><td>3-2-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>BU:</td><td>2-0-0</td><td></td><td>1-1-0</td><td>0-2-0</td><td>3-3-0</td></tr>
<tr><td>BC:</td><td>0-2-0</td><td>1-1-0</td><td></td><td>1-0-1</td><td>2-3-1</td></tr>
<tr><td>NU:</td><td>0-1-1</td><td>2-0-0</td><td>0-1-1</td><td></td><td>2-2-2</td></tr></table> As I thought it might, this gives us similar results. UML is just over .500, two teams are at .500 and one is just under. The slight switch is that instead of BU and BC at .500 and ND below, now NU is at .500 and BC below. In any event, that gives UML a window to the 1 seed.
At the bottom end, UML's win has them now clear of UNH, MC, and UMA, and at worst tied with CT. This is now the flip side of that long UConn discussion, except instead of trying to keep UConn as high as we can, we're trying to keep UML as low as possible.
We have seen that UML wins the H2H w/ CT. We also know there is interplay between PC, NU, and ME. The difference here is that we can give PC and NU the points from their other games to get them past UML, which frees up all the points for ME to hit their max of 24. If UML stays at 22, UVM will have swept them and reached 23.
So where are we? UMA/MC/UNH can't reach UML at 22. BU/BC/UVM would be beyond 22. CT wouldn't be higher than 22, and would lose H2H tb.
To keep UML at the bottom of the tie at 22 - and not yet clinching a Home series - we would need to add in in one or more of PC/ND/NU/ME to the tie at 22 to not only beat UML, but take UConn above UML with them. That tb would need to promote CT before it was down to the final two, because we know that UML wins the H2H w/ CT. The team(s) that we add in would have had to do poorly against CT and well against UML.
PC swept UML, but also took three from CT. So, yes, they did worse against CT than against UML, but they took 7 of 8 points and would be promoted out first of the three. Not what we need.
ND took three from CT, but only one from UML. Not helpful. NU swept CT, so... no. ME was swept by UML, so - again - no.
Even combining PC (CT +1 point better than UML) and ME (CT -1 point compared to UML) an adding in a ME sweep of PC... CT is still tied w/ UML at .500 (2-2-2 and 3-3-0), but PC is over-.500 at 3-2-1 and ME below at 2-3-1. That still promotes PC first and leaves us where adding ME in doesn't help. The other ties project to come out similarly - without UML at the bottom.
We're out of options to keep UML down at 9.
So congrats to the Hawks for clinching a Home series.
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My dog has been going snowbound stir crazy...
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BC is free and clear of four teams, so they are Home-clinchers as well. Have they clinched anything higher than 8th? Could they fall out the bottom of a tie at 24?
Well for the simplest answer, they split with ME (1-1-0). BC and ME both have two ties, so wins are the same. BU split w/ BC, but swept ME. If BU is the 1 seed, BC wins that tb. UML swept ME, but would also have swept BC to keep the Eagles at 24. That's a wash. Moving down the stack, I see that ND took three from Maine, but would have swept BC to keep the Eagles at 24. Since ND can still be the 1 seed, does that work?
Well, not yet. For ME to hit their max, they have to sweep NU. That leaves NU with a max of 24 as well (which would mean a sweep of BU, which is also needed for ND to be the 1 seed). That means there is no BC/ME two-way tie at 24. We have to start with a three-way BC/ME/NU tie. ME 3-1-0, BC 2-1-1, NU 0-3-1. Promote ME and BC wins the NU H2H. So, yes, BC can be behind ME, but now they're ahead of NU.
If we add in ND, we get: ND 3-2-1, ME 3-2-1, NU 2-3-1, BC 2-3-1. ND gets promoted ahead of ME on H2H record tb, and we're back to ME/BC/NU.
Adding PC (after ME sweep) to ME/BC/NU, we get: ME 5-1-0, BC 3-2-1, PC 2-4-0, NU 1-4-1. Promote ME. PC/BC/NU is then BC 2-1-1, PC 2-2-0, NU 1-2-1. Promote BC and we're done with that.
How about this? ME/NU/BC have to be there. For BC to stay at 24, ND would sweep and UML would complete their sweep. What does ME/NU/BC/ND/UML look like? That's probably as bad as it gets for BC, with two sweeps against. BC ends up 2-5-1. We get: UML 6-0-2, ND 3-3-2, ME 3-4-1, NU 2-4-2, BC 2-5-1. Wow. Don't recall seeing that before. A five-way tie with only one team above .500 and one even with .500. Third place is just less under .500 than the other two. So this looks like BC comes out the bottom of the stack, but HE doesn't decide the whole thing at once (...which is what I would do - they are all tied). Here we would clearly promote UML out and we're back to ND/ME/BC/NU above. PC and UVM both split with BC and NU, so adding them into the mix, doesn't help get NU past BC in any of these cases. (If someone else wants to do the math on a six- or seven-way tie and prove my instinct wrong, have at it.)
At this point, I feel confident that BC cannot come out the bottom of a tie at 24. BC can't be 8th, but they could be 7th.
They can also be the 1 seed at 30 or 29 without any tbs.
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At least it's dark now and I can't see the snow any more, beyond that piled up on my windows. I can still hear the wind, though - especially when the house creaks.
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Obviously BU can still be the 1 seed. Before last night they couldn't be lower than 5. Have they wrapped up 4th seed and a Bye, even with the loss at UNH?
Here's how we kept the Terriers at 5 yesterday:
PC won. Check. ND lost, but it was the PC loss we calculated for. Check. NU won. Check. UVM lost. No go.
How about this? NU and ND still win out and get the tbs vs BU as above. PC wins out for 29. That drops BU to 4. Can we get anyone else past them?
For ND to hit 28, they have to sweep BC, which leaves the Eagles at 26 max. We could swap out Eagles for ND, but that gets us no closer to BU dropping to 5. Swapping in BC for ND in any of the tbs only helps BU as ND would sweep, but BC is 1-1-0. Putting BC ahead at 29 or 30 and taking ND out still takes away the ND sweep and makes it less likely for BU to be overtaken.
The only other option is UML joining the tie at 28, with or without PC (if needed). UML would lose the BU H2H, but can we get them promoted out earlier and leave BU with NU, ND, or both? Maybe. UML did well against both NU and ND. If we can get those to count before the BU sweep drags UML down, it might work.
ND/NU/UML/BU comes out: NU 4-1-1, UML 2-2-2, ND 2-3-1, BU 2-4-0. Not looking good. Promote NU. ND/UML/BU goes to ND 2-1-1, BU 2-2-0, UML 1-2-1. Promote ND. BU wins H2H with UML.
So: BU cannot be 5th. 4th is their bottom. BU has clinched a Bye.
