Hockey East 2020-2021

[NCAA watcher]

I have a cruise bought and paid for, the cruise line is no longer taking any reservations into May. I'm assuming they know something. My reservation is in Sept, it got canceled last year and I doubt I'm on it this year. Also this cruise line already canceled all Alaskan cruises for 2021. Whats that tell you?

Rates are already falling significantly as the vaccine is cutting off vectors. By June we should get close to having 60% of the population vaccinated or already immune, and about 75-80% (just ballparking) so by September we'll only see a few hundred outlier cases nationwide that are on the mild side. Like the exponential growth of the spring and winter, we'll have exponential decline.

Hang in there.

 

[J.D.]

I have a cruise bought and paid for, the cruise line is no longer taking any reservations into May. I'm assuming they know something. My reservation is in Sept, it got canceled last year and I doubt I'm on it this year. Also this cruise line already canceled all Alaskan cruises for 2021. Whats that tell you?

That nobody can do anything until everyone on earth is vaccinated and there are zero COVID cases.

 

[walrus]

That nobody can do anything until everyone on earth is vaccinated and there are zero COVID cases.

Not everyone is going to get vaccinated and there will never be 0 Covid cases. Israel has been trying several drugs with great success for very sick covid patients.
https://www.israel21c.org/has-israel-just-found-the-cure-for-covid/ As the population of the world gets more and more out of control, get used to pandemics.

 

[Chuck Murray]

Ok Chuck, that's 12 guys who had individually unique injuries that drastically affected their careers over how many decades. And no, you couldn't double or triple it at the higher levels all those guys played at.

* Kris Draper (face to boards)
* Max Pacioretty (face to stanchion)
* Derek Boogard (CTE)
* Todd Ewen (CTE)
* Bob Probert (CTE)
* Borje Salming (skate to face)
* Travis Moen (skate to face)
* Jamie Heward (skate to face)
* Michael Ayers (UNH - skate to arm/wrist)
* Mark Howe (impaled by goal anchor)
* Gordie Howe (skull fracture head into boards)
* Trent McCleary (puck to throat)
* Richard Zednik (skate to throat)
* Adam Burish (skate to neck)
* Howie Morenz (shattered leg - died shortly after)
* Steve Moore (attacked by opponent)
* Eddie Shore (partially detached ear)
* Barry Cummins (stick to eye)
* Lou Fontinato (stupidly angered Gordie Howe)
* Eric Lindros (got on the wrong side of Scott Stevens)
* Richard Hollweg (stick to face at velocity)
* Rocket Richard (skull fracture - continued to play)
* Bernie Parent (eye injury despite mask)
* Valeri Kharlamov (hatchet/stick to ankle by Bobby Clarke)
* Paul Kariya (serious concussion w/LOC)
* Steve Yzerman (puck to eye/face)
* Nicklas Lidstrom (speared in a very sensitive area)
* Alexi Cherapanov (KHL death - cardiac arrest)
* Denis Sokolov (KHL death - carotid artery)

How'd I do? I can keep going if you want me to, but we're now up from "just" 12 to a total of 41 over the course of two days' worth of lists (only the second one lightly researched).

Dumba$$. But we shall continue regardless ... now let's examine "irresponsibility", shall we?

Yes, the sport has inherent physical dangers. We're looking at the possibility of hundreds of players at just the Junior, Collegiate, and Pro levels that could very well be affected in a significant, long-term way by post-Covid/Covid caused symptoms. We won't know the true results for likely 3-5 years. You're being fairly irresponsible in your dismissiveness.

So ... using your very imprecise and highly speculative wording, in which you're trying to foster general dread and fear, I guess that's just being on the "safe side" of things ... all while players miss important stretches of their careers to "save" them from something that won't affect 99+% of them, and won't have lasting effects (6 weeks?) on those who do get it?

Seems downright irresponsible to me. Not to mention arrogant, dictatorial, and a few others.

As I just said in my response to JD, I have an long time acquaintance with someone very high up in the Blackhawks organization and they have confirmed Toews issues are Covid related. And no, I'm not a cardiologist. However, according to Rossi's agent, he's been advised by the doctors he's seeing to avoid all activity for at least 6 weeks. That's a very common direction for those suffering with myocarditis.

I'm very impressed that you know the 'Hawks 'assistant equipment manager, but you did manage to bury the lede. Yes, you are not a cardiologist. Feel free to provide us an exhaustive list of "expert" cardiologists who are advocating for athletes to stay on the sidelines as you are advocating. Don't worry, we'll wait, there's not much else going on otherwise ...

Finally...wussification/wussies? Are you in junior high or what?

Own it, barnacle. You're the one constantly advocating for a danger-free existence. If people listened to you back in 1776, we'd still be paying taxes to Queen Elizabeth. This is real life, tomorrow is not guaranteed, to anyone. Man up, snowflake.

Maybe go "live on the edge" and have a pillow fight, willya?

 

[Chuck Murray]

Rates are already falling significantly as the vaccine is cutting off vectors. By June we should get close to having 60% of the population vaccinated or already immune, and about 75-80% (just ballparking) so by September we'll only see a few hundred outlier cases nationwide that are on the mild side. Like the exponential growth of the spring and winter, we'll have exponential decline.

Hang in there.

As usual, the voice of reason ...

 

[net presence]

* Kris Draper (face to boards)
* Max Pacioretty (face to stanchion)
* Derek Boogard (CTE)
* Todd Ewen (CTE)
* Bob Probert (CTE)
* Borje Salming (skate to face)
* Travis Moen (skate to face)
* Jamie Heward (skate to face)
* Michael Ayers (UNH - skate to arm/wrist)
* Mark Howe (impaled by goal anchor)
* Gordie Howe (skull fracture head into boards)
* Trent McCleary (puck to throat)
* Richard Zednik (skate to throat)
* Adam Burish (skate to neck)
* Howie Morenz (shattered leg - died shortly after)
* Steve Moore (attacked by opponent)
* Eddie Shore (partially detached ear)
* Barry Cummins (stick to eye)
* Lou Fontinato (stupidly angered Gordie Howe)
* Eric Lindros (got on the wrong side of Scott Stevens)
* Richard Hollweg (stick to face at velocity)
* Rocket Richard (skull fracture - continued to play)
* Bernie Parent (eye injury despite mask)
* Valeri Kharlamov (hatchet/stick to ankle by Bobby Clarke)
* Paul Kariya (serious concussion w/LOC)
* Steve Yzerman (puck to eye/face)
* Nicklas Lidstrom (speared in a very sensitive area)
* Alexi Cherapanov (KHL death - cardiac arrest)
* Denis Sokolov (KHL death - carotid artery)

How'd I do? I can keep going if you want me to, but we're now up from "just" 12 to a total of 41 over the course of two days' worth of lists (only the second one lightly researched).

Dumb*****. But we shall continue regardless ... now let's examine "irresponsibility", shall we?



So ... using your very imprecise and highly speculative wording, in which you're trying to foster general dread and fear, I guess that's just being on the "safe side" of things ... all while players miss important stretches of their careers to "save" them from something that won't affect 99+% of them, and won't have lasting effects (6 weeks?) on those who do get it?

Seems downright irresponsible to me. Not to mention arrogant, dictatorial, and a few others.



I'm very impressed that you know the 'Hawks 'assistant equipment manager, but you did manage to bury the lede. Yes, you are not a cardiologist. Feel free to provide us an exhaustive list of "expert" cardiologists who are advocating for athletes to stay on the sidelines as you are advocating. Don't worry, we'll wait, there's not much else going on otherwise ...



Own it, barnacle. You're the one constantly advocating for a danger-free existence. If people listened to you back in 1776, we'd still be paying taxes to Queen Elizabeth. This is real life, tomorrow is not guaranteed, to anyone. Man up, snowflake.

Maybe go "live on the edge" and have a pillow fight, willya?

Nice try Chuck. How many of those serious injuries prevented the player from returning to the game? That seemed to be the premise of your original list. Most of those added either returned to the game or, in the case of CTE, were diagnosed mainly after retirement. But, not shocking you would move your goalposts like that.

Unfortunately for our debate, I’m not willing to jeopardize the position I’ve attained in my 30 years of employment in direct management of our game at the Div. I level and above by naming my sources. Be they in the Blackhawks organization, the greater NHL, or various NCAA leagues, just to prove to some guy on a message board my bonafides are what I say they are. Suffice it to say that that position has put me in the middle of the very nuanced discussions at the league and national levels on the risks of attempting to play our sport at these levels in a Covid world, along with how best to manage those risks.

You just claimed that more than 99% of our athletes who ultimately become infected won’t ever be affected in the long term. Pretty bold statement from someone who hasn’t believed in the severity of the virus since it’s inception, nor the science around what the short and long-term damages might be. As for your “6 weeks” question; that’s the amount of time Rossi’s agent is saying he can’t do absolutely anything physical from an activity standpoint. No one mentioned anything about that being the only limitation his issues my create or, what the possible long-term effect those issues might create. At this point, the thinking is he should be able to return to normal activity but, more severe forms of myocarditis, even in younger adults, often takes a number of months to fully repair itself.

That, however, doesn’t mean he might not sustain some type of significant enough permanent damage to limit or cut his career short entirely. Thankfully, the Wild’s medical staff did a thorough enough cardiac work up to catch it. The problem is, the vast, vast majority of players who’ve been infected at the high school, junior, Div. III, minor pro, and even Div. I levels don’t have access to that type of cardio screening prior to returning to play. I’m not hiding in my basement Chuck. I’m currently sitting on a 737-900ER flying back home from another weekend involving our game. Fifth weekend out of the last 7. Do I like the fact I have to do this without a vaccine? No, I do not. But, I’m taking every possible precaution to maximize my percentage of safety.

Finally, if I was really worried about “danger-free existence”, I wouldn’t have spent over 20 years serving my country in a career field where I maintained equipment that had explosives on a daily basis. But hey, you just keep being you Chuck.

 

[Chuck Murray]

You're either the Forrest Gump of USCHO, or producer of "My 30 Years In Hockey - The Musical".

Every time you volunteer more info about yourself, it validates my original decision to steer clear.

Taken at face value, you're very, very complicated. And I suspect that's an understatement ...

... so although I am not a physician, I shall take the position of "First, do no harm". Bye (again).

 

[J.D.]

Imagine that, the guy travels for work (allegedly). So he's getting on with his life while also taking precautions. I had him pegged for being in a bunker 24/7. Dedication to the cause and all.

 

[walrus]

Rates are already falling significantly as the vaccine is cutting off vectors. By June we should get close to having 60% of the population vaccinated or already immune, and about 75-80% (just ballparking) so by September we'll only see a few hundred outlier cases nationwide that are on the mild side. Like the exponential growth of the spring and winter, we'll have exponential decline.

Hang in there.

I'm not as optimistic as you on the dates as I watch how slowly the rollout in Maine is going. We can't even get the over 70s done. It has picked up but supplies of vaccine are still not there at times.

 

[Split-N]

I'm not as optimistic as you on the dates as I watch how slowly the rollout in Maine is going. We can't even get the over 70s done. It has picked up but supplies of vaccine are still not there at times.

Same story here in MD. I'm Priority 1B but the state and county both claim not enough vaccine to go around. Same result for other 1B folks I know. Not sure what MA is doing but it seems to be way ahead of my state.

 

[NCAA watcher]

Same story here in MD. I'm Priority 1B but the state and county both claim not enough vaccine to go around. Same result for other 1B folks I know. Not sure what MA is doing but it seems to be way ahead of my state.

I know its frustrating when you are seeing others get their shots, and you are waiting, but bear in mind:

* even with current vaccination rate, we're seeing a great reduction in cases due to the beginning of herd immunity, meaning your chances of encountering the virus is dropping daily.

* the vaccination rate is steadily going up, so we're at about 1.6 mil doses a day, where we were at 1 mil/day about 3 weeks ago.

* stats show that even one dose gives significant protection -- around 90% protection, and no cases of serious hospitalization or death.

* supply is ramping up, and J&J will come on line in last week of February with another 100 mil doses.

* By end of June we will be into the phase 3 group. From the message board I follow:

Think of it this way. Less than 2 months ago we started the vaccine rollouts and we were talking about the slowness of them, rightfully so. We only got 11M needles in arms in month 1. Valentine‘s Day this weekend will be the close of month 2, and we’ll have an additional 42-43M needles in arms this month, and still accelerating at about a 4-5% pace per week, while maintaining a reserve of about 18-20M doses. It feels slow because we’re hitting like 0.2-0.4% of the population with first doses each day while getting second doses into the people who received their first doses last month, but over the course of a month, we’re getting another 8-10% of the population vaccinated. So even if we just maintained that with no additional vaccines coming online, we’d be looking at a maximum of 9 months from here to get 100% of all Americans in all ages vaccinated. Obviously, we aren’t hitting kids right now, so that takes out around 25% of the population off the bat, so now we’re down to 6.5 months to get all Americans vaccinated. We know we’ll only have ~70% uptake from adults, so now we’re down to 5 months from here to get everyone who wants a vaccine done. And that’s without J&J coming online. So that puts us at like late July for every adult who wants a vaccine actually having it done. To get to that point, we have to likely have a few months of general population eligibility, which points to April. Even backing in this way gets us there, and once again, this is without the single-shot J&J.

I think we’re done vaccinating the bulk of Americans who want to get vaccinated by mid-June. If we had a shot for kids, I’d extend it to mid-August, but we’re not talking about an extended campaign here for this round of vaccinations at this point. It’s a 3-4 month sprint.

 

[walrus]

Maine has 5% percent done in what 6 weeks or so. Not sure how that compares to rest of country? The last 2 weeks have had big drop in new reported cases. Waiting for the Super Bowl bounce though

 

[NCAA watcher]

Maine has 5% percent done in what 6 weeks or so. Not sure how that compares to rest of country? The last 2 weeks have had big drop in new reported cases. Waiting for the Super Bowl bounce though

13% at least one shot, which provides 90% protection after two weeks (and virtually eliminates hospitalization), so for real world impact, that will generate the exponential drop in cases. Plus, up there in Maine, you never come into contact with anyone else

Dark green means you are among the leaders in needles at 13%.


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

 

[HockeyRef]

13% at least one shot, which provides 90% protection after two weeks (and virtually eliminates hospitalization), so for real world impact, that will generate the exponential drop in cases. Plus, up there in Maine, you never come into contact with anyone else

Dark green means you are among the leaders in needles at 13%.


https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/

Really interesting info here! Useful in my classroom. We are moving along in the right direction! Here's hoping that this vax can take on variants that exist and will continue to exist. Prob will become a 'shot a year' potentially?

 

[NCAA watcher]

Really interesting info here! Useful in my classroom. We are moving along in the right direction! Here's hoping that this vax can take on variants that exist and will continue to exist. Prob will become a 'shot a year' potentially?

Well, the race, that we are likely to win, is between the natural death of the virus once the R0 gets below 1, and how quickly it can mutate to evade that death.

What do R0 values mean?
Three possibilities exist for the potential transmission or decline of a disease, depending on its R[SUB]0[/SUB] value:

• If R[SUB]0[/SUB] is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
• If R[SUB]0 [/SUB]equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
• If R[SUB]0 [/SUB]is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

https://www.healthline.com/health/r-nought-reproduction-number#meaning

Right now, the R0 is below 1, and we are seeing exponential shrinking. We saw that during the first wave, only due to human factors of lockdowns that prevented it from jumping to new hosts. We are in the new phase where the disease is becoming less able to jump to new hosts because of immunity.

While the flu mutates quickly, we are seeing slower Corona mutations, so my vague guess is that we will see the current vaccines enough to catch up with the mutations, and bring the R0 of those down below 1, where they die out (before they can mutate further to fully escape the vaccines). The current vaccines seem to be strong enough to fend off severe disease, and also to reduce the R0, but because less effective, its not clear whether the R0 will be below 1.

Just because a variant is more contagious doesn't mean it also will be impervious to vaccination. But the variant first identified in South Africa is raising concerns. Columbia University's David Ho put blood samples from people given the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines into lab dishes with the mutated virus. Vaccine-produced antibodies still protected, but they were much less potent.

Preliminary test results of two other vaccine candidates — from Novavax and Johnson & Johnson — soon backed up those findings. Both still protected but were weaker when tested in South Africa, where that variant dominates, than when tested elsewhere. A far smaller test of the AstraZeneca vaccine in South Africa has raised questions about its effect.

"If the virus were able to make an additional mutation or two, it could escape even more,” Ho warned.

Further, because the virus is mutating slowly, we can hopefully catch up more quickly than with the flu, meaning we can eventually contain it fully.

 

[buoldtimer]

To NCAA Watcher, regarding your last few posts: This is interesting information. I must ask, are you a medical professional, or a well-read, thoughtful layman?

 

[NCAA watcher]

To NCAA Watcher, regarding your last few posts: This is interesting information. I must ask, are you a medical professional, or a well-read, thoughtful layman?

Regrettably, science skipped my generation. I follow SOSH, where they have many medical professionals who have deep knowledge and share it there. All I do is try to keep up and cross-post here.

 

[walrus]

Plus, up there in Maine, you never come into contact with anyone else

I do my best to avoid contact, pandemic or not . Trouble is my job keeps in the public and has for many years. The pandemic hasn't slowed my business down one bit.

 

[Snively65]

Lots to encourage optimism now with the roll out of vaccines, and the number of those two weeks past their second vaccine shot just surpassed the total number of people who have been infected in the US. I also think that more willingness to wear masks in public is helping. Here is a short article about how fitting masks better can help even more. https://www.sciencenews.org/article/double-mask-fit-reduce-coronavirus-exposure-covid-19-pandemic

 

[leswp1]

They just came out saying it is probable the vaccine decreases viral load and therefore most likely decreases the potential transmission for those vaccinated. The jury is still out on the effectiveness against some of the variants- Brazil variant seems to be flying under the radar in the general news media but is much more infectious and seems to be a mutation that backdoors acquired immunity/antibodies. It has made it to the US but hopefully will not get far.

Nice to see informative posts with accurate info on here.