Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

[Skate79]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

Regardless of the season-ending probabilities of the Yale series, I agree it was a good decision to play Laing against Yale given the circumstances.

Trillium's list of big games was cherry-picked. Harvard's 3-1 win at Cornell in front of 2,000 is on par with these other big games.

If we had seriously doubts about Maschmeyer under pressure, than it was a mistake not to play Laing against the top-flight competition earlier this season.

Very true. And that Cornell game came after she gave up four goals to Colgate the night before. If the coaches thought she couldn't handle it, they would not have started her against the Big Red.

 

[john0128]

I'm not being defensive here. I'm just trying to understand where you are coming from with your thesis. I'm not concluding that Laing is the better goalie. I'm saying that she performed very well this weekend and in several instances, made some fabulous saves that preserved Harvard's season. How is that going negative?

And how do you know that the outcome of the first three games against Yale would have been different had Laing played? Maybe Friday night's game but who knows about the outcomes of the other two games. That's revisionist history. And I can't take into account who attended or watched any particular game when I post my comments. I can only go by what I see.

Of course hockey is a team game. Inside any one game however, a player or group of players can have a significant bearing on the final score, both good and bad. If Leonoff doesn't make the saves she made on Friday, the series would have been over in two games. Plain and simple.

I completely agree with everything you are saying in the above post. The only thing I think your posts are missing is to point out how poorly the defense played in the first 3 games in certain situations. Maschmeyer was truly left in some no hope situations. Look at Yales OT winner. When I read your posts it sounds like she choked. The reality of it to me was her effort was good with a few lapses. Lapses that both Leonoff and Laing had their d to help them with. It seemed every time she made a mistake it was a goal, whereas Lakng made similar small mistakes but had her team to help her, especially in game 3.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

As has been pointed out, we're not done if we lose on Saturday. Just out of the picture for home ice in the NCAA quarters.

There is still a chance Harvard does not make it into the NCAA tourney. If all three autobids go to current non-top 8 teams, and Harvard loses in the Semi's in the ECAC, they would be most likely be out.

For any combinations of BU/NE and UND/UMD and Quinnipiac winning autobids would result in that scenario.

 

[ARM]

There is still a chance Harvard does not make it into the NCAA tourney. If all three autobids go to current non-top 8 teams, and Harvard loses in the semi's in the ECAC, they would be most likely be out.

For any combinations of BU/NE/Vermont and UND/UMD and Quinnipiac winning autobids would result in that scenario.

Fixed your post.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

Regardless of the season-ending probabilities of the Yale series, I agree it was a good decision to play Laing against Yale given the circumstances.

Trillium's list of big games was cherry-picked. Harvard's 3-1 win at Cornell in front of 2,000 is on par with these other big games.

If we had seriously doubts about Maschmeyer under pressure, than it was a mistake not to play Laing against the top-flight competition earlier this season.

That doesn't follow. You don't get a real sense of how any player generally performs differently in particularly high-pressure situations until he/she faces that kind of situation multiple times. Until you do have such evidence, you would play the goalie either with the most experience, and/or with the best overall stats and consistency of results. That would obviously be Maschmeyer.

Cherry-picking? Yes the Cornell game was also of big importance, but it's open for debate whether it was quite as big as the other three. As you note, there was also the race versus Cornell for the Ivy League crown and if we agree it was equally important, you also should consider then than she did let in 3 goals on 31 shots in her first appearance vs Cornell at home. But obviously there are any number of reasons beyond her why the team lost more of these games than they won.

I'm not necessarily saying that Maschmeyer's mental makeup isn't suited to high-pressure games, just that the jury is still out on that measure based on her mixed results todate in high-pressure situations relative to her usual strong performances.

The statement was made that there's no rationale for playing Laing ahead of Maschmeyer this weekend. All I'm saying is that seasons stats are not necessarily a reliable predictor of play-off performances, and that there's not yet enough evidence, either statistically or through recent direct observation, to prove her superiority over Laing on high-pressure situations. Though there may still be somewhat limited evidence to date, the reverse may actually be true.

It's just an explanation for why one could defend putting Laing in net this weekend despite Maschmeyer's overall season record: if you had enough reason to believe Laing was better at handling extreme pressure, or that Maschmeyer had lost some confidence due to some recent results.

By your line of reasoning, Phil Kessel should have had all those shootout opportunities and goals over TJ Oshie, and Reggie Jackson's reputation as Mr. October was just coincidence.

 

[Trillium]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

There is still a chance Harvard does not make it into the NCAA tourney. If all three autobids go to current non-top 8 teams, and Harvard loses in the Semi's in the ECAC, they would be most likely be out.

For any combinations of BU/NE and UND/UMD and Quinnipiac winning autobids would result in that scenario.

Correct. Harvard needed to keep winning to maintain control of their own destiny.

 

[Skate79]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

There is still a chance Harvard does not make it into the NCAA tourney. If all three autobids go to current non-top 8 teams, and Harvard loses in the Semi's in the ECAC, they would be most likely be out.

For any combinations of BU/NE and UND/UMD and Quinnipiac winning autobids would result in that scenario.

Something similar needed to happen in '09 when we lost to RPI in the semis. We needed SLU to beat Dartmouth to give us a % point lead or some such thing with PWR and RPI (Not the team). Dartmouth won the tournament that year and went on to the NCAAs and we went home.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

To clarify, after Maschmeyer had the rough outing vs. Northeastern, if you were doubting at all her fitness for the final ECAC weekend, you should've given Laing a shot in one of the three games against BU / Clarkson / SLU. Like I said, Mark Johnson gave Jessie Vetter one shot against Minnesota in 2006 and she excelled, so he could be confident riding her as the greatest NCAA tourney goalie ever for the next 4 years.

I agree Maschmeyer hasn't PROVEN she gives the team a better chance to win than Laing - there are too few games to prove anything. But I will say this -- Harvard post-2005 has largely beaten the teams it's supposed to beat, but typically has come up poorly against the top handful of teams. This season has been an exception. Harvard has some pretty solid results against Cornell/Clarkson/BC, a 2-1-2 mark, though they've lost more against teams they shouldn't lose to like Yale and RPI. A lot of the success (and failure) has been owed to Maschmeyer. So even if she wasn't so great in some high-pressure games like last year's NCAA QF or the Beanpot or the ECAC QF, she's still the one player for Harvard in the last 9 years who's had the most individual success against legit championship contenders during the regular season. So that's why I am unconvinced that you bench her now based solely on relative performance against Yale.

 

[ARM]

Like I said, Mark Johnson gave Jessie Vetter one shot against Minnesota in 2006 and she excelled, so he could be confident riding her as the greatest NCAA tourney goalie ever for the next 4 years.

As far as I could tell, once Vetter finally became healthy that year, Johnson was rotating her in equally with Horras and Dufour. I don't know that he necessarily planned to evaluate her against Minnesota, because for much of that season the Gophers' offense wasn't appreciably better than that of any random team. I'm guessing that at some point the plan was to go with Vetter once she was acclimated, as evidenced by redshirting her as a freshman even though Dufour was injured.

And that may be one possible reason why this debate is going on. A couple of years ago at this time, Alex Rigsby looked slightly off, and after the season she needed to have the hip surgery that is becoming the women's hockey equivalent of Tommy John surgery for pitchers. Maybe Maschmeyer isn't 100 percent, so the coaches' decisions are dictated by what she can and can't do physically. Coaches always have access to much more information than do fans, but it doesn't stop us from thinking we know better.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

As far as I could tell, once Vetter finally became healthy that year, Johnson was rotating her in equally with Horras and Dufour. I don't know that he necessarily planned to evaluate her against Minnesota, because for much of that season the Gophers' offense wasn't appreciably better than that of any random team. I'm guessing that at some point the plan was to go with Vetter once she was acclimated, as evidenced by redshirting her as a freshman even though Dufour was injured.

Right, and Laing has only been rotated in for weaker opponents.

And that may be one possible reason why this debate is going on. A couple of years ago at this time, Alex Rigsby looked slightly off, and after the season she needed to have the hip surgery that is becoming the women's hockey equivalent of Tommy John surgery for pitchers. Maybe Maschmeyer isn't 100 percent, so the coaches' decisions are dictated by what she can and can't do physically. Coaches always have access to much more information than do fans, but it doesn't stop us from thinking we know better.

I think in almost every post I've been careful to mention that there could be other factors we can't observe. If Laing does start, then I am hopeful that is why.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2014/3/5/womens-hockey-cornell-preview/?page=single

The win advanced Harvard to the ECAC semifinals against Cornell (22-5-4, 15-4-3) this coming Saturday. It also forced Crowell to make the choice again: Laing or sophomore starter Emerance Maschmeyer. The team did not practice Monday or Tuesday, meaning Crowell will have to decide who is playing better based on limited practice time.

Laing did more than save 62 shots over two days, she saved Harvard’s season. But now she’s prepared to hand the reins back to Maschmeyer, who is third in the country in save percentage.

“I’m pretty positive that Emerance will be playing because she has been so amazing this season,” Laing said.

 

[Skate79]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

http://www.thecrimson.com/article/2014/3/5/womens-hockey-cornell-preview/?page=single

If you think about it, Crowell is in a no win situation. If she starts Maschmeyer and Harvard loses, Crowell will be second guessed to death about not going with Laing. If she starts Laing and loses, everyone will wonder why Maschmeyer didn't get the start. If Harvard wins with either goalie, the consensus will be "well sure it made sense to start (insert starting goalie here). That was the logical thing to do." When the men won in '89, there was no question that Chuckie Hughes would start the national championship game even though Allain Roy could have made a strong case for himself as starter based on his performance in the semis against Michigan State.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

If she starts Maschmeyer and Harvard loses, Crowell will be second guessed to death about not going with Laing.

I wouldn't second guess that decision.

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

If you think about it, Crowell is in a no win situation. If she starts Maschmeyer and Harvard loses, Crowell will be second guessed to death about not going with Laing. If she starts Laing and loses, everyone will wonder why Maschmeyer didn't get the start. If Harvard wins with either goalie, the consensus will be "well sure it made sense to start (insert starting goalie here). That was the logical thing to do."

Harvard will lose a game sometime in the next few weeks and it will not be because Crowley started the wrong goalie.....It's okay.......every team except one will lose their last game this season.

In the words of Stuart Smalley.... ""I'm Good Enough, I'm Smart Enough, and Doggone It, People Like Me!"

 

[clarksoncluck]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

Harvard will lose a game sometime in the next few weeks and it will not be because Crowley started the wrong goalie.....It's okay.......every team except one will lose their last game this season.

In the words of Stuart Smalley.... ""I'm Good Enough, I'm Smart Enough, and Doggone It, People Like Me!"

Great points!!

Clarkson has had a great season, met and maybe exceeded expectations.

Cornell has met expectations.

Harvard has exceeded expectations.

Quinnipiac met expectations.

I'm sure everyone can go through the other leagues, but all I know is that it is very possible that none of these teams win the NCAA title.

Does that mean that their season was for not? Or that they are failures?

No, there have been many successes along the way, and they are all getting great educations. They are 18 - 22 year olds with a lot of pressure on them, and yet they all have made their schools, fans and their families proud. As mnpokecheck said only on other final 16 teams will end with a win. (unless they are from the CHA - without auto bid) Hopefully the players will enjoy all the little moments along the way!

We should be proud of all of these young women.

Good Luck to all.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

every team except one will lose their last game this season.

Unless Syracuse or RIT also win their last game

 

[Trillium]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

Great points!!

Clarkson has had a great season, met and maybe exceeded expectations.

Cornell has met expectations.

Harvard has exceeded expectations.

Quinnipiac met expectations.

I'm sure everyone can go through the other leagues, but all I know is that it is very possible that none of these teams win the NCAA title.

Does that mean that their season was for not? Or that they are failures?

No, there have been many successes along the way, and they are all getting great educations. They are 18 - 22 year olds with a lot of pressure on them, and yet they all have made their schools, fans and their families proud. As mnpokecheck said only on other final 16 teams will end with a win. (unless they are from the CHA - without auto bid) Hopefully the players will enjoy all the little moments along the way!

We should be proud of all of these young women.

Good Luck to all.

2013 ECAC PRESEASON COACHES’ POLL
Team (First-Place Votes) Total Points
1. Clarkson (7) 117
2. Cornell (5) 111
3. Harvard 99
4. Quinnipiac 94
5. St. Lawrence 78
6. Dartmouth 75
7. Princeton 56
8. Rensselaer 46
9. Colgate 43
10. Yale 37
11. Brown 26
12. Union 11

Agree with your overall sentiments. Not sure about your thought about Clarkson overachieving so much though (or even Harvard for that matter) versus expectations. Remarkably, the order of the ranked teams nationally from the ECAC matches that pre-season poll too.

I think most of the ECAC sorted out roughly the way most thought it might. Going back to the pre-season coaches poll, Clarkson was expected to win the title--probably a little more cleanly than they did. The biggest league disparities to actual performance were Yale overachieving (7th vs projected 10th) and Dartmouth underachieving (barely squeaking into 8th due to RPI losses late in season vs projected 6th), . Princeton and Union also over-performed, especially in terms of the gap that may have been expected versus higher-placed teams.

As far as projected first team goes, the only difference in the list was that Maschmeyer ending up taking honours not Howe, which in the view of most observers accounted for Harvard doing somewhat better than perhaps was expected. Cornell also had some goalie performance/injury issues that may not have been anticipated which negatively affected their placement.

The one thing that generally isn't taken into sufficiently into account (if at all!) in pre-season polls is the impact of the incoming freshman classes. In that respect, as was ultimately borne out by rookie class stats, Yale's was better than average for the league and Dartmouth's below average. That was a big factor in those flipped placements.

 

[Skate79]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

I wouldn't second guess that decision.

Neither would I. I'm just sayin' that it will be out there and it's only human to second guess.

 

[Skate79]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

Harvard will lose a game sometime in the next few weeks and it will not be because Crowley started the wrong goalie

Perhaps. Then again, you can't say that for sure. None of us can. If whoever starts tomorrow lets in a soft goal that winds up losing the game for Harvard, then what? There are a myriad of possibilities; I'm just sayin' that Crowell opened the door for this by starting Laing last weekend. I'm not questioning that call; it obviously worked out for her. But now she is in that uncomfortable position of having to choose between the two. Personally, I think either goalie can do the job.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Harvard Crimson 2013-2014

The one thing that generally isn't taken into sufficiently into account (if at all!) in pre-season polls is the impact of the incoming freshman classes. In that respect, as was ultimately borne out by rookie class stats, Yale's was better than average for the league and Dartmouth's below average. That was a big factor in those flipped placements.

Good analysis, all around.