Grand unified 2020 election thread

[jericho]

PA: Overperform 14.5%
GA: Underperform 0.35%
AZ: Underperform 17.2%
NC: Overperform 24.4%

so the green means he’s in a good position flip/hang on? Sorry, I’m really naive about this. First presidential election since my daughter was born so stakes are a little bit more important for me

 

[ScoobyDoo]

No matter how this plays out the vote totals show almost half this country is completely fcuked. They have quit on America.

Yes Kepler that many. A pandemic, dead economy, higher turnout and declining world standing could not lower their totals. (They went up) This is no longer just the 37%.

Correct. I wanted to believe it was just the 40% or so but that is no longer true. It's half. Half are racists. Half want to die from climate change or covid. Half want the entire world to abandon us. Half want the economy to die.

It's staggering.

 

[French Rage]

PA: Overperform 14.5%
GA: Underperform 0.35%
AZ: Underperform 17.2%
NC: Overperform 24.4%

Just to be clear, that's how much they have to overperform/underpeRform the existing state average?

Also, are you still using ~200K remaining in GA, or has it been changed to reflect the ~60K they are saying on CNN?

 

[French Rage]

Under 15K margin in GA, under 122K margin in PA.

 

[aparch]

2. Regardless of this year's outcome, AZ, TX, NC, and GA look to become swing states for the next 10-20 yrs as the nat'l demographic shift continues.

Law of Unintended Consequences since they're being populated by blue stater's sick of high taxes (CA/NY)

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Correct. I wanted to believe it was just the 40% or so but that is no longer true. It's half. Half are racists. Half want to die from climate change or covid. Half want the entire world to abandon us. Half want the economy to die.

It's staggering.

No, what it means is half the country is fine with an authoritarian, autocratic government, so long as they can keep their current lifestyle/standard of living.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Law of Unintended Consequences since they're being populated by blue stater's sick of high taxes (CA/NY)

That's why they're not flipping. I guess good education for their kids doesn't matter to them. Explains why the number is really 50% Trumper. and not 40%.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Trends are not going well...

 

[French Rage]

Fwiw:

in georgia, ballots continue to trickle in. Deep-blue fulton county (where much of atlanta proper is) just reported another 6,000 or so votes, 76 percent of which went for biden. This took trump’s statewide edge from 0.4 points to 0.3 points. Hard to say just how many votes are left to report — we last heard around 60,000 an hour or so ago — but we know biden needed to win probably 62 percent or more of those to take the narrowest of leads. The new votes from fulton surpass that mark.

 

[psych]

so the green means he’s in a good position flip/hang on? Sorry, I’m really naive about this. First presidential election since my daughter was born so stakes are a little bit more important for me

Right there with you. My daughter is forever a Trump baby. My unborn son needs to come into this world in a Biden administration. My entire family, save my Dad (FDR), were born under GOP presidents.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Just to be clear, that's how much they have to overperform/underpeRform the existing state average?

Also, are you still using ~200K remaining in GA, or has it been changed to reflect the ~60K they are saying on CNN?

Over/underperform each district's averages.

District A: 25 75
District B: 50 50

If I said he had to overperform by 10 points, it means the remaining ballots need to be:
District A: 20 80
District B: 45 55

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Law of Unintended Consequences since they're being populated by blue stater's sick of high taxes (CA/NY)

I don't think taxes are a driver for all of those people. Cost of living is a big one, and for the NY'ers, weather is too.

Otherwise, Oregon and Colorado would be red states by now, with all the CA'ians who moved to both in the last 20 years.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

No, what it means is half the country is fine with an authoritarian, autocratic government, so long as they can keep their current lifestyle/standard of living.

My bank account did way better under Clinton and Obama than it did under W and Trump. So I want to know what fucking drugs these people are on?

 

[Spartanforlife4]

I don't think taxes are a driver for all of those people. Cost of living is a big one, and for the NY'ers, weather is too.

Otherwise, Oregon and Colorado would be red states by now, with all the CA'ians who moved to both in the last 20 years.

I think Idaho is the refuge for all the anti-tax Californians.

 

[French Rage]

They say upcoming NV drop will be 75% Clark County, and a mix of early mail-in and election day.

And remember still more can come in via mail thru the 10th.

 

[dxmnkd316]

so the green means he’s in a good position flip/hang on? Sorry, I’m really naive about this. First presidential election since my daughter was born so stakes are a little bit more important for me

Yeah, green is good. But obviously the trend is important too. Hard to show that without those large tables. Not sure if everyone wants me to keep pasting those?

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

No matter how this plays out the vote totals show almost half this country is completely fcuked. They have quit on America.

Yes Kepler that many. A pandemic, dead economy, higher turnout and declining world standing could not lower their totals. (They went up) This is no longer just the 37%.

Kep is the opposite of my younger sister. They are both educated, both smarter than I am, both ultra progressive and lean heavily socialist on plenty of today's issues. Kep though has faith that people like him (and her) will win out, eventually. Even if that eventuality takes another 10 or 100 generations. She, on the other hand, is even more convinced than I am that at the very least America is dead. And I am pretty d am n convinced America is dying and the best any of us with good heads on top of good hearts can do is basically provide hospice care.

But the fact is it doesn't take a majority of one side to win. The good our side is doing is trumped (pun both intended and not intended) by the harm the apes are doing. They are also reproducing at a far greater rate than we are. Hell, some of them are even smart enough to know they need to reproduce at at a greater rate. We would have to outnumber them 2-1 or even and right now it is 55-45 good guys at best.

This country has fundamentally changed. In no other time would the situation that faced us in 2020 would have left us where we are today, wondering two full days after the election if we live to fight another day. At any other time the opposition party would have wiped out the party in charge. If this was 1932 all over again, Biden would have swept or nearly swept all 50 states. He'd have won as many EC votes as have ever been won, or at least come within a few. We would have wiped at least the senators the polls showed we were up on off the map and likely would have figured out a way to get a few more than that even. We would have flipped state houses. None of that happened. Not even close.

This country is truly teetering on the brink of existence. As someone said months ago and I have been saying it ever since first hearing it, electing Biden was essential, but it was light years away from being sufficient. His election is hanging by an unravelling thread and it is literally our last hope. I feel like we are down 8 and at our own 45 yard line and the refs just threw a defensive pass interference flag as the clock hit 0:00 on our Hail-Mary attempt. We get one more try. And even then we need to convert the 2 PAT and win in overtime.

 

[French Rage]

Biden lead increases to 12K in NV!

 

[French Rage]

Yeah, green is good. But obviously the trend is important too. Hard to show that without those large tables. Not sure if everyone wants me to keep pasting those?

Please do.

Your last graph showed both PA and GA crossing 0 ahead of time; why did you say they were not looking good?

 

[dxmnkd316]

They say upcoming NV drop will be 75% Clark County, and a mix of early mail-in and election day.

And remember still more can come in via mail thru the 10th.

Wait, that was it...?