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Grand unified 2020 election thread

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I'm nervous, but here is Nate Cohn's take this morning:

The basic breakdown: Biden's still on track in Pennsylvania. There's enough mail-in vote, there's still in person vote in Philadelphia, and there are a lot of provisionals. The first indications are that they're very Democratic.
Click to expand...

Georgia: it's going to be close, but the higher-end estimates for mail ballots will probably get it done for Biden. And don't forget about provisionals here, either. Not very many in this state, but even if Trump holds a nominal lead at the end, Biden could still have a shot
Click to expand...

Arizona: It's still a mess here. Last night's ballots were good for Trump, but there just isn't as much precision in our understanding of what's left as there is in the other states. I'd still think Biden's the favorite, but you can't call this one without more data than we have
Click to expand...
 
I believe Keps figures are marginal progressive taxes, so you'd actually keep well over 2 million (the state would take a bite of that but you'd still keep almost all of it) if you made 10 million. You only pay 80% of the money you made OVER the first million.
 
PA is trending poorly for biden. I'm less and less confident he pulls it off now.
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[TD="class: xl81"]Remain[/TD]
[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: yellow"]GA[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl82, bgcolor: yellow"]AZ[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl76, align: right"]10:00 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl69, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]32.37%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]34.50%[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fcb079, align: right"]388,889[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fdb67a, align: right"]379,639[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]2:40 PM[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fdb67a, align: right"]379,700[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]2:47 PM[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fdc67d, align: right"]356,423[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]2:50 PM[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]3:03 PM[/TD]
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[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fecf7f, align: right"]343,462[/TD]
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[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #ece582, align: right"]20.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ebe582, align: right"]26.75%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #e8e482, align: right"]276,979[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9294, align: right"]1,035,494[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]2:52 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fa7f70, align: right"]7.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #eae582, align: right"]20.62%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e6e382, align: right"]26.49%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #e3e382, align: right"]272,300[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9395, align: right"]1,028,008[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]3:28 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fa7f70, align: right"]7.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:18 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e2e282, align: right"]19.86%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e3e382, align: right"]26.31%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #dee182, align: right"]266,652[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9496, align: right"]1,013,469[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]3:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fa8070, align: right"]7.05%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:22 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e3e282, align: right"]19.92%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e4e382, align: right"]26.38%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #dee182, align: right"]266,754[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9497, align: right"]1,011,031[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]3:48 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fdc47d, align: right"]4.58%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f96c6c, align: right"]23.29%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f96b6c, align: right"]67,948[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97173, align: right"]291,688[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:28 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e1e282, align: right"]19.72%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e4e382, align: right"]26.35%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #dde182, align: right"]265,676[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9597, align: right"]1,008,120[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]3:58 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fec77d, align: right"]4.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f96a6c, align: right"]23.42%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f96a6c, align: right"]68,315[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97173, align: right"]291,688[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:39 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e2e282, align: right"]19.90%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e6e382, align: right"]26.49%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #dde182, align: right"]266,234[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9597, align: right"]1,005,168[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]4:22 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fec87e, align: right"]4.43%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]23.44%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]68,363[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97173, align: right"]291,688[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:43 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e2e282, align: right"]19.87%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e6e382, align: right"]26.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #dde182, align: right"]266,090[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9597, align: right"]1,004,744[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e8e482, align: right"]2.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #fb9c75, align: right"]20.75%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fb9a75, align: right"]57,397[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f9787a, align: right"]276,658[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:50 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #cddc81, align: right"]17.83%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #dde182, align: right"]26.01%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d4de81, align: right"]256,058[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9799, align: right"]984,273[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]5:23 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #e7e482, align: right"]2.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #fb9d75, align: right"]20.70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fb9b75, align: right"]57,266[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f9787a, align: right"]276,680[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]6:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #bed880, align: right"]16.33%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d3de81, align: right"]25.46%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cbdc81, align: right"]246,149[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa999b, align: right"]966,946[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]6:03 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #94cc7d, align: right"]-1.68%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #fec67d, align: right"]18.45%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fb9d75, align: right"]56,739[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]307,585[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]6:17 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #bed880, align: right"]16.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d4de81, align: right"]25.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #cadb80, align: right"]245,891[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa999b, align: right"]964,909[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]6:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #81c67c, align: right"]-2.54%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]16.46%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fdc47d, align: right"]47,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97274, align: right"]290,619[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]6:25 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #a5d17e, align: right"]13.89%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d1dd81, align: right"]25.32%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #c2d980, align: right"]236,767[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9c9f, align: right"]935,092[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]7:23 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #81c67c, align: right"]-2.54%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f5e883, align: right"]15.98%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #fecd7f, align: right"]45,991[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97375, align: right"]287,797[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]7:23 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #85c77c, align: right"]10.74%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #a2d07e, align: right"]22.82%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #9bce7e, align: right"]195,953[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa4a6, align: right"]858,792[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]7:48 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]-3.90%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #d8df81, align: right"]14.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #ffe884, align: right"]39,811[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97a7c, align: right"]273,296[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:12 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #7fc67c, align: right"]10.13%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #9fcf7e, align: right"]22.64%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #98cd7e, align: right"]192,380[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa5a7, align: right"]849,617[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:01 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #ffe383, align: right"]3.45%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #fec97e, align: right"]18.30%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #ffe784, align: right"]39,921[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9497, align: right"]218,089[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:28 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #7dc57c, align: right"]9.98%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #9cce7e, align: right"]22.51%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #97cd7e, align: right"]190,984[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa5a8, align: right"]848,398[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:37 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #feea83, align: right"]3.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #fed17f, align: right"]17.87%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]38,996[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9497, align: right"]218,164[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:47 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #7bc57c, align: right"]9.73%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #96cc7d, align: right"]22.18%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #93cb7d, align: right"]186,755[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa6a8, align: right"]842,033[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:52 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fcea83, align: right"]3.04%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ffe383, align: right"]16.89%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f2e783, align: right"]37,370[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9395, align: right"]221,296[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:19 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #79c47c, align: right"]9.59%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #93cc7d, align: right"]22.02%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #90cb7d, align: right"]184,397[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa6a9, align: right"]837,509[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:56 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]3.14%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ffe483, align: right"]16.87%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f2e783, align: right"]37,322[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9395, align: right"]221,296[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]6:24 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]-20.82%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #fba076, align: right"]16.20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]93,016[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]573,997[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:53 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #75c37c, align: right"]9.19%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #92cb7d, align: right"]21.95%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #8fca7d, align: right"]182,561[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa7a9, align: right"]831,840[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f9e983, align: right"]2.88%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ebe582, align: right"]15.52%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d4de81, align: right"]33,300[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9698, align: right"]214,603[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]7:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #6bc07b, align: right"]-20.75%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]16.32%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #f96b6c, align: right"]92,817[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f96b6d, align: right"]568,780[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:58 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #76c37c, align: right"]9.26%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #93cc7d, align: right"]22.02%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #8fca7d, align: right"]182,743[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa7a9, align: right"]829,862[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f9e983, align: right"]2.88%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ebe582, align: right"]15.52%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #d4de81, align: right"]33,300[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9698, align: right"]214,603[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:10 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]-19.58%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]16.05%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]79,173[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f97e80, align: right"]493,344[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]10:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #68bf7b, align: right"]7.92%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #7bc57c, align: right"]20.73%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #82c67c, align: right"]168,745[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa9ab, align: right"]813,984[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:45 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f3e783, align: right"]2.64%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e0e282, align: right"]14.93%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #c8db80, align: right"]31,748[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9799, align: right"]212,662[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]9:09 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #fca176, align: right"]-18.22%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #8cc97d, align: right"]15.32%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #ffeb84, align: right"]79,173[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f9787a, align: right"]516,820[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]10:11 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]7.35%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #71c27b, align: right"]20.19%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #7ec57c, align: right"]164,414[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #faa9ab, align: right"]814,475[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]10:11 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f3e783, align: right"]2.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #e0e282, align: right"]14.93%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #c8db80, align: right"]31,748[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9799, align: right"]212,657[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:35 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #f8696b, align: right"]-17.20%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]15.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]68,390[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #f9888a, align: right"]454,246[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:35 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #a1cf7e, align: right"]13.47%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #6dc17b, align: right"]19.96%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #69bf7b, align: right"]142,466[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fbb3b6, align: right"]713,614[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]11:26 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #dde182, align: right"]1.63%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #c4d980, align: right"]13.54%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #b2d57f, align: right"]28,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa9799, align: right"]212,886[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl73"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl74"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl75"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:40 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #98cd7e, align: right"]12.62%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]19.39%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #63be7b, align: right"]135,702[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fbb4b7, align: right"]699,927[/TD]
[TD="class: xl77, align: right"]8:35 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl73, bgcolor: #a0cf7e, align: right"]-1.12%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl74, bgcolor: #66bf7b, align: right"]8.94%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: #66be7b, align: right"]18,590[/TD]
[TD="class: xl75, bgcolor: #fa999b, align: right"]207,922[/TD]
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Needs Arizona/Nevada. That's where I think it happens. It better. Fire Perez. Heard Hispanics put Trump over the top in Texas. Epic Fail.
 
BassAle said:
I'm nervous, but here is Nate Cohn's take this morning:
Click to expand...

Yeah the lack of specifics on what/where in AZ makes it hard to know what to feel there; that's doesn't mean it's bad, mind you, just unclear. It could tighten more, or it could start to open up and we we worried for nothing. At least with PA/GA you can feel more sure it will tighten, and the question is just, how much?

NV coming at 12E/9P right?
 
TalonsUpPuckDown said:
If I'm following the chart correctly, the blue line has to go below zero before the red line catches up. Overnight the red line dropped a lot faster than the blue line which is bad for us.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...ZB/pubchart?oid=1770292817&format=interactive
Click to expand...

I have changed my chart. I now plow "remaining" on the x-axis and "Margin" on the y-axis. It gives you an exact target to hit independent of time. I hated that I had time in my graphs/spreadsheets because time is irrelevant. Time = votes remaining to be counted.
 
Kepler said:
My god, is this yours? It is the perfect description. Even more fitting for me since back when I fit it I was also a fiery Hayek libertarian (anybody remember Marsgriffins?)

Ah, 30-somethingness. So embarrassing. :-)
Click to expand...

Not mine. Saw it used election day in reference to people b*tching about Biden's tax plan.
 
Kepler said:
Asymptotically approach 100%. Every dollar you make is slightly easier than the prior dollar, and represents slightly less effort, and is also slightly less needed.

Federal:

01% 0-50k
20% 50-250k
50% 250k-1M
80% 1M-10M
99% 10M+

State (deductible from federal):

00% 0-50k
02% 50-250k
05% 250k-1M
08% 1M-10M
10% 10M+
Click to expand...

I..... am okay with this, and wish to subscribe to your Presidential/Senatorial campaign newsletters.
 
I am starting to get very nervous again. It looks like PA and GA are literally going to come down to the last few thousand votes. Does he need to overperform now in Georgia on the remaining uncounted vote? If we needed just ONE of NV, AZ, GA or PA I might breathe easier, as we're leading in two and cutting the deficit in big ways in 2. But the margin is too close in NV even with votes coming from heavily D areas, and even then, one more must go into Biden's column.

My tinfoil hat tells me that the AP refuses now to back off their AZ call because almost 48 hours later they figure they will look bad no matter what, changing this late in the game or just getting it wrong eventually. So they are counting on the Biden votes holding because in that scenario they win completely. FOX won't change theirs because somehow they will weave into their narrative their protesters at AZ counting sites were heaven sent and if it turns out bad for Biden they will spin it that it was evil fraudsters that fed them bad info to hurt their orange god and good prevailed.

I am useless with the math and figures so I doubt I am correct, but if the stuff I just read on the 538 blogs is correct, Biden would need in excess of 66% of the non-Philadelphia area votes to go his way to make up his deficit state wide. Certainly possible, but good God that is asking a lot. In GA the totals might need to be even more Biden-skewed. I am now starting to belive our October surprise may end up being a November surprise. I think trump is going to pull this off.

And as far as 538 is concerned, I jumped down their throats too quickly on Election night. It turns out they were more right than I thought then, but I still think they (and the pollsters they aggregate from) did worse this time around than 2016. Votes are still left to count, millions of them it looks like. They may end up looking no worse than they did in 2016, but just like for Biden, that will take a 5h!t-ton of votes going the right way. And if trump wins, I will be back to the notion that every pollster and poll aggregator did an unbelievably bad job here and they have no more clue about what is out there than a tree stump.
 
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Well 538 can really only go by what the pollsters give them. They are an aggregate site for the most part. How they choose to weigh specific polls you can argue but they arent going out and doing the polling. If the polling is off nothing 538 does is going to be correct. (which you could say is an argument for them not doing it but I am doing that) Too many people only look at the breakdowns (and I am sometimes guilty of this as well) and never read their write ups where they often explain where their numbers came from and why they could be wrong or what they actually mean. The need to try and quantify everything numbs people to the fact that some things just arent going to show up in the numbers. (like in sports)
 
So, Trump could draw the Inside Straight again. And we will all (all of us in the United States) officially be living in a failed state. Happy Happy Joy Joy.

I'm already starting to try to figure out how I move on. I might just have to stop watching and reading news/politics period.
 
ericredaxe said:
New York Times now saying there are 61,367 mail in votes still to be counted in GA. Biden needs to make up 18,146 votes.
Click to expand...

65% of that would give him a few hundred vote win. It would take 70% to give him a few thousand more votes. Those votes all have to be in heavily democratic districts for those numbers to be possible. I guess most are, but to me that still looks grim. It also looks like even if it turns in Biden's favor, the total will be like Florida in 2000 and that means too many paths to a challenge.
 
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