JF_Gophers
2147483647
oddly it seems like a lot of older people play, and here at least the proceeds go to helping the elderly.
So they are self funding their government aid.
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Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
- Thread starter joecct
- Start date
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So they are self funding their government aid.
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
If the poor people can do math, they aren't necessarily taxed.
Lotteries supposedly fund schools in New York City-state. I somehow believe that has to be a fairly small percentage...
If the poor people can do math, they aren't necessarily taxed.
Lotteries supposedly fund schools in New York City-state. I somehow believe that has to be a fairly small percentage...
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
The older people around here **** away their social security check at the slot machines.
The older people around here **** away their social security check at the slot machines.
Kepler
Si certus es dubita
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
Still a negative expected value.
Still a negative expected value.
JF_Gophers
2147483647
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
If everyone knew how bad the odds were and didn't play, wouldn't the odds then improve greatly for games based on number of entries?
Catch 22!
If everyone knew how bad the odds were and didn't play, wouldn't the odds then improve greatly for games based on number of entries?
Catch 22!
WisconsinWildcard
The plural of anecdote is not data
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
You may be right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PK-netuhHA
You may be right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PK-netuhHA
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
How do you figure? I don't recall the exact odds, and lottery sites are prohibited here (network filters and all), so I can't find those exact odds, but the Powerball is something like 1:279,000,000. If the max payout is $500MM, then you're about 1:1 after taxes are taken out.
How do you figure? I don't recall the exact odds, and lottery sites are prohibited here (network filters and all), so I can't find those exact odds, but the Powerball is something like 1:279,000,000. If the max payout is $500MM, then you're about 1:1 after taxes are taken out.
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
Two things to remember:
1. Estimated annuitized jackpot; lump sum is half of that.
2. You must divide that by the number of winners.
3. Some lotteries make the grand prize a percentage of said jackpot (usually 75%).
Two things to remember:
1. Estimated annuitized jackpot; lump sum is half of that.
2. You must divide that by the number of winners.
3. Some lotteries make the grand prize a percentage of said jackpot (usually 75%).
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
I'm sure the number and size of prizes would be scaled to match the lower participation rates. They won't set up odds where they give out more than they take in. These things are set up to make money for the government to fund various things. Therefore you have to pay out less than you take in to get those funds. Like, to give an extreme example, if only a thousand people bought Powerball tickets, I'm sure the grand prize would be very small.
unofan
Well-known member
Not mathematically. I haven't checked out the odds since they lengthened them a while back by adding more numbers, but let's ball park it at 1:300,000,000 to hit the jackpot.
Even risking a split jackpot, a $500,000,000 payout plus the other smaller payouts (you have a 1:45 shot of at least getting your dollar back) likely put the expected payout close to or above $1.
Back when the jackpot odds were roughly 1:175,000,000, the break even point for expected value was a jackpot of about $250,000,000, I think.
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Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
Not quite, the size of the jackpots reflect the participation; that's why rollover weeks lead to higher payouts. The state always collects its vig, always.
Not quite, the size of the jackpots reflect the participation; that's why rollover weeks lead to higher payouts. The state always collects its vig, always.
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
Usually you are really sharp on these questions.
The state(s) always make(s) money on the lottery, they skew the odds that way to make sure they always collect. Hence all money spent to purchase tickets in aggregate < all money paid out in aggregate.
The example you cited neglected to include rollovers from prior weeks.
Now, if a person only played large jackpots and never played any other time, your math might work, but even then I'd be surprised if it did: as the jackpots get larger, more people play, so that the money collected that week gets larger while the jackpot doesn't (until the following week, anyway). Even if you as an individual only play jackpots, even then, in aggregate, everyone together is always chasing from behind.
and if you live in a state that has a state income tax and you win, you can be sure that the state gets its tax withholding before the payout occurs!
??
Usually you are really sharp on these questions.
The state(s) always make(s) money on the lottery, they skew the odds that way to make sure they always collect. Hence all money spent to purchase tickets in aggregate < all money paid out in aggregate.
The example you cited neglected to include rollovers from prior weeks.
Now, if a person only played large jackpots and never played any other time, your math might work, but even then I'd be surprised if it did: as the jackpots get larger, more people play, so that the money collected that week gets larger while the jackpot doesn't (until the following week, anyway). Even if you as an individual only play jackpots, even then, in aggregate, everyone together is always chasing from behind.
and if you live in a state that has a state income tax and you win, you can be sure that the state gets its tax withholding before the payout occurs!
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unofan
Well-known member
The only part of powerball or any other major lottery game based on participation is the progressive jackpot. Otherwise they're just roulette writ large.
FlagDUDE08
Banned
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
You're assuming everyone who hits the big one gets paid the full jackpot value. They don't. It gets split amongst the winners.
You're assuming everyone who hits the big one gets paid the full jackpot value. They don't. It gets split amongst the winners.
unofan
Well-known member
There's a point with any progressive jackpot system where the expected value of a play exceeds the cost of a play. Whether we're talking the lottery or a slot machine, the principle is the same
The loytery/casino make their money with everyone playing before the jackpot hits that point. By the time it reaches that point, if ever, they don't care because they've already banked enough to more than cover the jackpot.
The person who only plays when the jackpot is at $1,000,000,000 has a positive expected return. It's the people who pay when the jackpot resets to $10,000,000 that have negative expected value.
unofan
Well-known member
Hence the "even risking a split jackpot" comment.
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
No, not all of them. In MN, we have the "MN Millionaire's Raffle" that happens every December There is a guaranteed winner of $2MM, regardless of how many people play the game, and they cap the number of tickets sold. Every year they run out of raffle tickets so it's a moot point, but it's still a theoretical possibility.
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
I'm pretty sure if participation dropped off, they'd adjust the prize down to a million or whatever level it would take to still make a profit. It's not like gambling is a social good or something, so if it's not turning a profit for the state, I'm pretty sure they'd get out of the business pronto or fix it to make a profit.
St. Clown
Liberal Rebel Scum, apparently
Re: Global War on Terror Version 6 - Perpetual Motion Machine
Yes, future raffles would be impacted, but that current year's raffle. After a few years they did adjust the raffle upward due to high demand. They increased the prizes and increased the number of tickets sold. Still, regardless of that first year's sales, someone was going to win that million dollars.
Yes, future raffles would be impacted, but that current year's raffle. After a few years they did adjust the raffle upward due to high demand. They increased the prizes and increased the number of tickets sold. Still, regardless of that first year's sales, someone was going to win that million dollars.
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